DEC Fri, Jan 6: +156,000 jobs. Unemployment rate up slightly to 4.7%...DEC details here!.. Jobs since Obama took office?... Unemp. rate under Obama?

Saturday, September 29, 2012

How Many New Private Sector Jobs Have Been Created Under Obama? (August update with revisions)

How Many New Private Sector Jobs Have Been Created Under Obama?  


How many private sector jobs have been lost or added during Obama's presidency?

Since the "trough" of the recession in late 2009/early 2010:

  • 5,081,000 MORE private sector jobs

Since Bush left office & Obama took office (January 2009):
  • 868,000 MORE private sector jobs

Since the stimulus was passed (# as of March 12, 2009): 
  • 2,380,000 MORE private sector jobs

Since the beginning of Obama's first Fiscal Year (October 2009): 
  • 4,619,000 MORE private sector jobs

Have any private jobs been lost (net) over the past 30 months?

Thursday, September 27, 2012

Good News for Jobs!


Several articles and reports have been published in the last few days that show good news, better than expected news, on the jobs front.  Please click on any of the following links for information and sources:


  • My popular monthly column updated with the new numbers released today, September 27, 2012.  Don't miss the updated graph.
  • I debunk and explain this myth that was popular right after the August jobs report was published.
  • More rightie myths debunked.. some overlap with previous post.
  • No, it wasn't.  And here's why..
  • Surprise, surprise.. Find the data in this article.
  • Debunking the popular myths that we need 150,000 or 200,000 or 250,000 new jobs a month just to accommodate the growth in population. 
  • Yep.. New Numbers Based on More Complete Data Show That We Are Generating Many More Jobs Than we Thought We Were






386,000 More Jobs Than We Thought!

Job Growth Better Than Previously Reported...


The BLS released its preliminary adjustments to jobs numbers (benchmarks) today.  According to the CES (Current Employment Statistics) Preliminary Benchmark Announcement, we now have at least 386,000 more jobs than we thought we had through March 2012.  Unfortunately, due to the way the BLS works with these adjustments, it appears that the number of jobs won't be officially modified until January 2013, after the election.

Sample Surveys vs. Numbers Reported by Employers on Tax Records

The monthly jobs numbers are based on a "survey sample" of employers throughout the U.S.  The sample survey is used because complete data, based on the unemployment tax forms that employers are required to submit quarterly, is not available until about six months after that quarter closes.  As a result, the samples may be overestimated or underestimated. 

In an economy that is adding jobs, such as the economy we've had for the past two years, jobs numbers are more than likely UNDERestimated.  Last year's samples were revised upwards by 162,000 jobs.  In an economy that is shedding jobs, such as our economy in 2008 and 2009, the samples are more likely OVERestimating jobs.  We actually lost 902,000 more jobs in 2009 than we thought we did at the time.

This is a big increase.

The additional 386,000 jobs this year is a really large number.  It means that we added  an average of an additional 32,000 jobs every month in that 12 month period than we thought we did.  The undercount in private jobs was even greater; it appears that we added at least 453,000 more jobs than we thought we did for the period from March 2011 through March 2012.  That's an undercount of about 38,000 private jobs a month.  This is the biggest upward benchmark revision since 2006, and the 6th highest revision in the past twenty years.    

The implications are significant:  
  • 4.4 million MORE jobs in total since the "trough" of the recession.
  • 5.1 million MORE private sector jobs since the "trough" of the recession.
  • Since Obama took office, there are 125,000 MORE jobs in total.  This is the first time that there are more jobs now than when Obama took office.
  • Since Obama took office, there are 868,000 MORE private sector jobs.


How Many Jobs Were Created or Lost Under Obama with the New Benchmarks?


This is a subset and a copy of our latest "How Many Jobs Created or Lost under Obama" column as adjusted based on the new benchmarks which were released today, September 27, 2012.

No other reports have been adjusted at this time.

How many jobs created or lost under Obama?

How many private sector jobs have been lost or added during Obama's presidency?

Since the "trough" of the recession in late 2009/early 2010:

  • 4,442,000 MORE jobs in total
  • 5,081,000 MORE private sector jobs
  • 4,133,000 MORE people working (not changed as this number does not come from the CES survey)

Since Bush left office & Obama took office (January 2009):


  • 86,000 FEWER people working in total
But:
  • 125,000 MORE jobs in total
  • 868,000 MORE private sector jobs

Since the stimulus was passed (# as of March 12, 2009): 
  • 1,648,000 MORE jobs in total
  • 2,380,000 MORE private sector jobs
  • 1,347,000 MORE people working (same)

Since the beginning of Obama's first Fiscal Year (October 2009): 
  • 3,952,000 MORE jobs in total
  • 4,619,000 MORE private sector jobs
  • 3,326,000 MORE people working (same)

Have any private jobs been lost (net) over the past 30 months?
NO!
  • 30 months of consecutive private-sector job growth.

Have any jobs been lost (net) over the past 23 months?
NO!
  • 23 months of consecutive over all job growth.

(Explanations and detail below.  Keep reading.)








How many jobs have been lost or gained during the Obama administration?  Have more new jobs been created or have more jobs been lost under Obama to date?   

Summary:  

We are in positive territory when we look at total jobs numbers, private jobs numbers, and people working compared to the "trough" of the jobs recession in late 2009/early 2010.

We are also in positive territory when we look at total jobs numbers, private jobs numbers, and people working compared to the start of Obama's first Fiscal Year in office which started October 1, 2009.

 
We are in positive territory in terms of total jobs numbers and private sector jobs number compared to the day Obama took office; however, we are in negative territory in number of people working.  


We are now adding jobs at a fair clip, with an average of 167,000 MORE jobs  total added per month since December 2010, and an average of  186,700 MORE jobs added per month in the private sector since December 2010.



(Note:  All of my employment number reports are based on monthly reports and data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  Monthly numbers reports are based on the monthly Employment Situation Report.  The Employment Situation report includes month over month and year over year numbers of jobs and workers.  My analysis is taken from the monthly BLS data copied to an Excel spreadsheet every month.  I calculate detailed percentage increases/decreases, 3 month numbers, 2011 to date numbers, and I compare jobs numbers to those at the time of Obama's inauguration and at the "trough" of the recession.  As the BLS revises its numbers as new information is available, I use the latest available numbers in my monthly articles, which means that those numbers may differ slightly from numbers published in previous months.) 

We Only Need 65,500 Jobs a Month To Accommodate Population Growth?

How Many Jobs Do We Really Need Per Month to Keep up With Population Growth?


This is a big, big question, and I see it discussed everywhere.  The common wisdom is that we need something like 150,000 to 200,000 jobs a month to "keep up" with population growth.  Though we have been churning out an average of about 151,000 more jobs per month this year, that's still not seen as "enough" to keep up with job growth much less make up for the jobs deficit of the 2008 to 2010.  


So let's look at the facts of jobs numbers and population.

First of all, I'm going to assume that the population growth rates and trends that we have had for the past three years will continue at least for another year or two.  (I haven't yet checked this against the CBO or Census growth estimates.)


Since Obama took office, we've added 8,800,000 people to the "civilian non-institutional population 16+" or 205,000 more people per month since January 2009.   At an employment participation rate of 63% (which is what the employment participation ratio was before the crash), that would SEEM as though we need 133,000 MORE people EMPLOYED a month just to keep up, assuming similar population growth patterns for the next year or two.  This does NOT include employment to make up the "jobs deficit" of 2008-2010.  Now, the number of establishment JOBS (which is the reported monthly jobs number) is about 93% of the number of people EMPLOYED (which includes farm workers and self-employed people not captured in the establishment jobs data).  So let's take 93% of 133,000 and it seems as though we need 124,000 jobs a month JUST to keep up with that population growth.

But not so fast......


Let's look at those 8,800,000 "extra" people:

  • The 55+ age group:
    8,670,000 of those "added" people, or 202,000 a month since January 2009, are in the 55+ age bracket. (And 4,400,000, or over half of that increase, are in the 65+ age bracket.  I'm not even going to get into that.)  These are the Baby Boomers who are getting older every year.  Now despite the problems with the economy, these people are dropping out of the labor market.  At the "normal" employment participation rate for this age group, which was 37.5% in 2007-8, we need 75,800 more "employed" people and 70,500 MORE JOBS a month for this age group.  (Remember that we have a ratio of about 93% of the number of "employed" people to get the number of establishment jobs we need.)
  • The 16-24 age group:
    1,300,000 of those added people, or 30,200 a month since January 2009, are in the 16-24 age bracket.  At a pre-crash employment participation rate of 52% for this age group, we need 15,700 more "employed" and 14,600 more jobs a month for these young people.
  • The 25-54 age group:
    Meanwhile, among people in their prime working years, there are 1,150,000 FEWER people, or 26,700 FEWER per month,  in the 25-54 age group.  At a pre-crash employment participation rate of 80%, we need 21,300 FEWER people "employed" and 19,800 FEWER jobs a month for this age group which is declining in population right now.  (Now, this age group isn't going to keep declining forever, but for the short term, it is declining.)

Using the above calculations, how many establishment JOBS do we need to keep up with the growth in population? 


70,500 jobs a month for those 55+ plus 14,600 for those 16-24 minus 19,800 for those 25-54.  This equals about 65,300 additional "establishment jobs" to keep up with population growth.

Anything over approximately 65,500 more jobs a month will serve to decrease the jobs deficit of the 2008-2010 time frame.  At job growth of around 65,500 jobs a month, the unemployment rate will not move much.



If we really don't need more than 65,600 additional jobs a month, how long will it take us to make up the deficit we incurred in 2008 to 2010?

I'd have to look at population growth projections in more detail to make a more careful assessment, which I'm not going to do today.  But here's a very rough and quick projection:  

  • We lost 8,800,000 jobs from January 2008 until February 2010, when we hit bottom.
  • That was 55 months ago.  At 65,500 jobs a month needed for population growth over those 55 months, we needed 3,600,000 extra jobs over the past 55 months for population growth.
  • So altogether, we needed an extra 12,400,000 jobs since January 2008 to accommodate population growth and job loss since January 2008 IF we want to get back to an employment participation rate that we had before the crash.
  • We have made up 4,100,000 jobs since the trough of the recession; leaving us a jobs deficit of 8,300,000 jobs.   
  • At average job growth of 150,000 jobs a month, we would need about 8 years to replace all of those lost jobs while providing for the increase in population.  At an average job growth of 200,000 jobs a month, we would need about 5 years.  However, the big Baby Boomer population bump will continue to retire out of the job market, so we would probably need fewer than 65,500 jobs a month starting around 2015.
  • As I said, I would have to look at more specific population growth estimates by age group to determine exactly how many years it will really take us to get back to full employment based on employment participation ratios of 2007.

Update 6/6/2013:
In an article published yesterday in the Global Economic Intersection blog (and several other outlets),  Daniel Aaronson, vice president and director of microeconomic research, and Scott Brave, senior business economist, at The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, have validated my belief that we need many thousands of jobs a month FEWER to provide for a growing population than most economists claim due to changing demographics.  They believe we now need about 80,000 jobs a month as they discuss in the following article:

80,000 Jobs a Month Needed to Reduce Unemployment
 
They used much more sophisticated methods than I used in this article.  They went into Census estimates and discussed the possible influence of immigration (which I didn't), but I'm pleased that somebody with some authority is looking at things the same way that I am. 

Wednesday, September 19, 2012

Best August for Jobs since 1996?


Were August jobs numbers really that bad?

The jobs numbers for August 2012 compared to previous Augusts are actually pretty good!


August typically is not a good month for job growth, so it's informative to compare this August to prior Augusts.  

In total jobs:  
  • In seasonally adjusted numbers, this is the biggest increase in total jobs for the month of August (+96,000) since 2006.  
  • In "raw" unadjusted numbers, this month's increase of 252,000 jobs is the BEST unadjusted improvement in job numbers in August since 1996!  
  • And, again in raw unadjusted jobs numbers, this is the fifth best gain in  August since the beginning of the Reagan years.

Let's look at private jobs in August:
  • In seasonally adjusted numbers, this is the second best increase of the past six years.
  • But in unadjusted numbers, the increase in the number of private jobs in August is the best August since 2005, and the second best over the past 14 years.  

Hinky Seasonal Adjustments






Though I understand why we seasonally adjust jobs numbers, I don't completely understand the precise formulas that are used.  Therefore, I don't understand exactly why the seasonal adjustments this year were not as  good, relative to prior years, as they should have been considering the unadjusted numbers of jobs.

The chart above shows a fairly high blue bar marked "252" for the year 2012.  It is higher than any other blue bar going back to 1996.  Those are total unadjusted "real" jobs.  The red bar for the year 2012 doesn't stick out quite as much, but it is higher than all other red bars save one, going back to 1998.  Those red bars represent unadjusted "real" private sector jobs.  The green and black bars represent seasonally adjusted jobs.           

252,000 total new jobs in "raw" unadjusted numbers adjusted to 96,000 new jobs now, in August 2012.  However, in August 2005, 245,000 new jobs adjusted to 193,000 jobs!  Based on that kind of adjustment, we'd be celebrating 200,000 new jobs now and not lamenting only 96,000 jobs.  

Likewise, now, in August 2012, 166,000 "raw" new private sector jobs adjusted to 103,000 private sector jobs, but in August 2010, 159,000 "raw" private sector jobs adjusted to 128,000 private jobs.  In 2006,  154,000 "raw" private jobs adjusted to 145,000 private sector jobs. 

Why such differences in the adjustments of very similar raw numbers of jobs?  To be fair, some of the difference in adjustments is based on the mix of private and government sector jobs.  In August, increases in private sector jobs count more than increases in government jobs.  But we really did add 252,000 jobs in August, not 96,000.  And that was a good showing.

In any event, August 2011 (last year) was the "zero" month.  In early September, it appeared that we had not added ANY new jobs.  But now, with adjustments and corrections, it appears that we actually added 85,000 in August 2011.  At the end of this month, the CES numbers will be benchmarked to the County Employment Reports which are based on the unemployment tax records that employers must send to the feds.  These are generally more accurate than the CES sample survey, and, in a growing economy, they often result in more job growth than was originally projected.  So--- we will have to see what happens next week. 


To summarize:

  • August is usually a bad month for job growth.  
  • Compared to previous Augusts, this August was pretty decent for jobs.
  • It was the best August for jobs since 2006.
  • In terms of unadjusted jobs, it was the best August for jobs since 1996!
  • Seasonal adjustments seem to be off compared to seasonal adjustments of prior Augusts, which is one reason why the jobs numbers may appear lower than they really are.  

 

Was the August Jobs Report Really So Bad?

At first glance, the August jobs report, released two weeks ago, seems just plain bad:

  • Only 96,000 more jobs.
  • 119,000 fewer people employed.
  • 591,000 more people "not in the labor force".
  • Unemployment down but ONLY because 368,000 people left the labor force (Some say "Gave up looking for work".)

Oh, woe are we; woe are we!, the pundits cry:  Bad news for Obama; good news for Romney and the Republicans!

As is often the case, we need to say:  Not so fast!

It often takes a few days to dig through these reports, and there is often a silver lining.. or at least a reason for the seemingly bad news.  


The good news of this month's unemployment report:

  • Employment is up solidly among people 25+.
  • The size of the labor force has increased among people 25 and older.
  • The people leaving the labor force are young people 16-24 who are returning to school.  There were more young people employed over the last few months, so there were more people available to leave employment and to leave the work force this August than in recent summers.
  • In comparison to jobs numbers in the month of August in prior years,  this August is not only NOT that bad; but it is actually pretty good.
  • Seasonal adjustments seem hinky when compared to previous years.

We'll look at each of these issues, the first three about younger workers here, and the second two, about August numbers HERE.

Fewer people employed?

The Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers do show us that there are 119,000 FEWER people employed in August than in July, and dozens of pundits and right-wingers jumped on that to blather on about the continued misery of the American people; that people were dropping out of the work force because they were terribly depressed and couldn't find work, etc. etc., 

But no...  When one digs a little more deeply into the BLS stats, we see quite a different picture:  


Among people age 25 up, the number of people in the labor force (working or looking for work) actually INCREASED by 180,000 in August and employment among people 25+ INCREASED about 397,000 in August.

Among young people 16 to 24, employment did DECREASE by 453,000 in seasonally adjusted numbers.. and employment decreased by about 1,260,000 in "raw" un-adjusted numbers.  This seems like a huge decrease due to people going back to school, but the reality is that more young people found jobs this summer.  

There were 750,000 MORE young people employed this July than last July, and this was the largest number of people 16 to 24 who were employed since before the recession, back in 2008. The employment population ratio (percentage of people in the population who are employed, either full-time or part-time) of people 16-24 this summer was up to 46.2%, higher than it has been since 2009, when we were still losing jobs at a huge rate. The unemployment rate among young people this summer, while still higher than it was in the early 2000's, is lower than it has been for four years. 


With an increase in Pell Grants over the past two years, it is possible that more young people could afford to go to school this year and perhaps more of them could attend school without working.  In October 2010, about 58% of young people 16-24 were enrolled in school either part-time or full-time.  In March of 2012, that percentage had increased to 61% of young people 16-24.  We'll know more when the school enrollment numbers for September and October are released.
 
People Leaving the Labor Force in Despair?  

The people leaving the labor force don't appear to be leaving in such despair and depression... As we said above, they are largely young people (16-24) returning to school, and there is absolutely NO PROOF that people who are leaving the labor force are doing so in despair.  In fact, the number of people who claim they are not looking for work because they are "discouraged" and believe they will not be able to find work has been going down, both from July to August (852,000 down to 844,000) and from last August to this August (977,000 down to 844,000).

As mentioned above, the number of people 25 and over in the labor force actually increased by 180,000.  So the decrease in the labor force this August is entirely due to younger people, 16 to 24, probably because they are  returning to school.

Why are so many more young people leaving employment and the labor force this year?

Now.. There seems to be a much greater number of young people leaving the labor force to return to school this year than in the past couple of years.  Seasonal adjustments should even out the back-to-school effect, as young people leave the labor force and employment by the droves EVERY August.  So why more young people leaving this August?

Two reasons:

  • The first, more young people employed in July 2012 than in recent months of July, was discussed above. 
  • The second is a bit more obscure:  August 12th was on a Sunday this year.  


So what?  August 12th was a Sunday?  How does that change anything? 


Here are the changes in the size of the labor force in August for the past 13 years from 2000 to 2012:


  • 2000   +236,000
  • 2001    -370,000
  • 2002   +206,000
  • 2003    -  40,000
  • 2004    -128,000
  • 2005   +347,000
  • 2006   +339,000
  • 2007    -305,000
  • 2008   +166,000
  • 2009    -219,000
  • 2010   +325,000
  • 2011   +316,000
  • 2012    -368,000

There doesn't seem to be an obvious pattern when one looks at the change in the size of the labor force in seasonally adjusted numbers.  However, when you look at unadjusted numbers of people who left the labor force in August, the pattern is more apparent, and much more apparent if you only look at unadjusted numbers of people 16-24 who left the labor force in August:
     

                   Change in the labor force, August   
                 Unadj 16+            Unadj only 16-24

  • 2000  -   626,000                  -   955,000                                 
  • 2001  -1,271,000                     -1,637,000
  • 2002  -   624,000                     -1,194,000
  • 2003  -   855,000                     -1,245,000
  • 2004  -1,051,000                     -1,219,000
  • 2005  -   653,000                     -1,103,000
  • 2006  -   743,000                     -1,030,000
  • 2007  -1,378,000                     -1,538,000
  • 2008  -   913,000                     -1,343,000
  • 2009  -1,358,000                     -1,417,000
  • 2010  -   592,000                     -   974,000
  • 2011  -   468,000                      -   855,000 
  • 2012  -1,271,000                     -1,630,000
First, it is obvious that, in raw numbers, the size of the labor force decreases quite a bit every August.  It also should be obvious that the drop in the size of the labor force in August is completely caused by a decrease in the size of the labor force by young people 16-24.   

Back to the 12th day of the month:  

The 12th day of the August this year, 2012, was a Sunday. The week containing the 12th day of the month was the week ending Saturday, August 18th. In 2011, the week containing the 12th day of the month was the week ending Saturday, August 13th. This doesn't seem like a big difference, but it makes a big difference in terms of people returning to school. Young people are more likely to stop working and return to school in a week ending August 18th than in a week ending August 13th. 

If you look at the numbers above, you see the biggest monthly drops out of the labor force fell in 2001, 2007, and now in 2012.  Those are the years in which August 12th fell on a Sunday.  Notice that 2007 was still a good year economically, and there were still many hundreds of thousands more young people who dropped out of the labor force in August than in the year before.  The next highest drops occurred in August of the economically distressed years of 2008 and 2009.

To summarize:

  • The drop both in employment and the drop in the size of the labor force in August are both attributable to young people, aged 16-24, probably in conjunction with their return to school.
  • The number of people 25 and up who are in the labor force and who are employed went up in August.
  • The reason that the number of 16-24 year olds in the labor force and the number of 16-24 year olds employed decreased as much as they did had to do with the number of young people employed this summer, which exceeded that of the number of young people employed last summer by 750,000 people.
  • Also a statistical fluke, that August 12th occurred on a Sunday, exaggerated the number of young people leaving employment and leaving the labor force in August.  This same fluke has exaggerated the number of people leaving employment and the labor force in every recent year in which August 12th fell on a Sunday.

Monday, September 17, 2012

How Many Jobs Were Created or Lost in August 2012?







96,000 
new jobs were created in the month of August 2012.  NO jobs were lost (net) in the month of August 2012.


The private sector generated 103,000 new jobs, but the government sector continued to shed jobs; it lost 7,000 jobs in August 2012.

119,000 FEWER people reported themselves as working in July 2012.

The following chart shows cumulative private job loss and growth from January 2008 until August 2012:













The unemployment rate edged down by two tenths of one percent to 8.1%.   The decrease in the unemployment rate was primarily due to:

  •  A decrease of 119,000 people who reported themselves as employed in August vs. July; 
  • An decrease of 368,000 people in the labor force.  This includes people  who said they were either employed or looking for work.
  • However, the decline in the number of employed people and in the number of people in the civilian labor force people occurred only among people 16-24 years of age.  MORE people 25+ were employed and more were in the civilian labor force in August than in July.
  • The number of unemployed people (people who are actively looking for work) declined by 250,000 in August vs. July.  
  • The numbers of people who were on temporary layoffs, who completed temporary jobs, who were entering or re-entering the work force declined in August.  
  • The numbers of people who lost their jobs permanently and who quit their jobs increased in August.   

How Many Jobs Have Been Created in 2012 To Date? (August Update)

How Many Jobs Were Created or Lost in All of 2012?


This report has been updated.  Please click at the link above for updated information.


How many jobs were created in all of 2012 to date, from December 2011 through August 2012?   1,114,000

How many private-sector jobs have been created in 2012?   1,207,000

How many more people working in all of 2012 to date, from December 2011 through August 2012?  
1,311,000 


Have jobs been lost (seasonally adjusted numbers) in 2012?  NO.  I'll repeat that:  NO jobs have been lost (NET) in 2012. 

How many jobs (in seasonally adjusted numbers)have been lost in 2012?  NO jobs (NET) have been lost in 2012.  


This report has been updated.  Please click at the link below for updated information.

  • In seasonally adjusted numbers, 1,114,000 jobs have been CREATED in 2012.  That's 92,300 jobs ADDED per month in 2012.
  • In "raw" unadjusted numbers, 127,000 jobs have been GAINED in 2012.  That's 16,000 jobs GAINED per month in 2012.
  • In terms of seasonally adjusted total jobs and private-sector jobs, we have ONLY JOB GAINS in 2012, but JOB GAINS are lower in unadjusted numbers.  This is typical for August as most government workers, primarily in education, who were laid off for the summer have not yet returned to work in August.  Generally these jobs are added back in September.

How many private-sector jobs were created in all of 2012, from December 2011 through August 2012?  Have private-sector jobs been created or  lost in 2012?
  • In seasonally adjusted numbers, 1,207,000 private-sector jobs have been CREATED or ADDED in 2012.  That's 151,000 NEW private-sector jobs per month in 2012 as of August 2012.
  • In "raw" unadjusted numbers, 1,717,000 private-sector jobs have been GAINED, CREATED, or ADDED in 2012.  That's 215,000 NEW private-sector jobs per month as of August 2012.

How many government jobs were created in all of 2012, from December 2011 through August 2012?  Have government jobs been created or lost in  2012?
  • In seasonally adjusted numbers, 93,000 government jobs have been  LOST in 2012.  That's  12,000 government jobs LOST per month in 2012.
  • In "raw" unadjusted numbers, 1,590,000 government jobs have been LOST in 2012.  That's 199,000 government jobs LOST per month in 2012.  
  • Remember that most of the lost government jobs are due to summer layoffs in the education sector. This is typical for August as government workers, primarily in education, are laid off during the summer. 
How many more people are working in all of 2012, from December 2011 to August 2012?
  • In seasonally adjusted numbers, 1,311,000 MORE people are working now vs. December of 2011.  That's 164,000 NEW workers each month of 2012 to date.
  • In "raw" unadjusted numbers, 1,877,000 MORE people are working now vs. December 2011.  That's 235,000 NEW workers each month of 2012 to date.
 Have jobs or workers been lost in 2012? 
  • In 2012, we have had ONLY NET GAINS in seasonally adjusted total jobs, private sector jobs, and in all measures of workers.  
  • We have had losses in the number of government jobs since December 2011.    
  • To reiterate, in terms of private jobs, we have ONLY JOB GAINS in 2012.  
  • Please understand that people are laid off and people quit every month.  About 1,900,000 people have been laid off every month in 2012.  About 2,100,000 people have quit every month in 2012.  But about 4,200,000 have been hired every month in 2012.  When the number of people hired exceeds the number of "separations" (people who quit or are laid off), the jobs numbers go up.  When the number of people laid off plus the number of people who quit exceed the number of people hired, the jobs numbers go down.  That's what we mean by "NET" job numbers.

How many jobs total were created over the past three months from May 2012 to August 2012?  Private sector jobs over the past three months?  Government jobs over the past three months?  People working over the past three months?
How many jobs total were created over the past year from August 2011 to August 2012?  Private sector jobs over the past year?  Government jobs over the past year?  People working over the past year?
How many jobs have been created since the "trough" of the recession in late 2009/early 2010 to now, August 2012?  How many more people working since that time?

    How many jobs were created in the last month, August 2012?
    What gets counted as "jobs" and who gets counted as "working"?

    You will see reports here for both the number of "jobs" and the number of people "working".

    There are two parts of the BLS numbers:

    1) The "jobs numbers" or B tables refer to the Establishment Report; that is, employing "establishments". This is basically what is included and excluded in the Establishment report:

    "Employment data refer to persons on establishment payrolls who received pay for any part of the pay period that includes the 12th day of the month. Data exclude proprietors, the unincorporated self-employed, unpaid volunteer or family workers, farm workers, and domestic workers. Salaried officers of corporations are included. Government employment covers only civilian employees; military personnel are excluded. Employees of the Central Intelligence Agency, the National Security Agency, the National Imagery and Mapping Agency, and the Defense Intelligence Agency also are excluded." (Found HERE.)
    Therefore, independent contractors who are paid as 1099 employees would NOT be included in those numbers, neither would people starting their own small businesses, whether incorporated self-employed or non-incorporated self-employed. Farmers would also NOT be considered in the monthly "jobs" reports.

    2)  
    However, the Current Population Survey (or A tables) counts people from their own perspective; in other words, it doesn't talk to employers, it talks to people. It asks people if they are working for money in any given month. This is the study from which we get the unemployment rate and the number of people "working". Independent contractors are included in that count. 

    The count of people who are employed is always higher by some 9,000,000 people as it includes farmers and people who are self-employed along with a few other groups of workers.  There were about 9,458,000 unincorporated self-employed workers in August 2012, so this is where independent contractors would be reported.  There were also about 5,366,000 incorporated self-employed workers in August 2012.
    (Note:  All of my employment number reports are based on monthly reports and data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  Monthly numbers reports are based on the monthly Employment Situation Report.  The Employment Situation report includes month over month and year over year jobs numbers.  My analysis is taken from the monthly BLS data copied to an Excel spreadsheet every month.  I calculate detailed percentage increases/decreases, 3 month numbers, 2011 to date numbers, and I compare jobs numbers to those at the time of Obama's inauguration and at the "trough" of the recession.)





    How many jobs total were created over the past three months from May 2012 to August 2012?  Private sector jobs over the past three months?  Government jobs over the past three months?  People working over the past three months?
    How many jobs total were created over the past year from August 2011 to August 2012?  Private sector jobs over the past year?  Government jobs over the past year?  People working over the past year?