JULY# Fri, Aug 4: +209,000 jobs.

Unemployment down 4.3%...JULY details HERE.. Jobs since Trump took office?... Unemp. rate under Trump? (not yet updated)

Sunday, April 28, 2013

How Many People Fired or Hired in 2013? (December 2013 update - released in February 2014)


The LOWEST number of people were laid off in 2013 since 2000 when the JOLTS (Job Openings, Layoffs, and Turnover Survey) was first published.

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Number of people hired, fired, number of jobs for 2014 HERE.


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How many people have lost or gained their jobs so far in 2013?  How many people have been fired or hired so far in 2013?



The number of jobs reported as created or lost the first Friday of each month is a NET number:  In other words, the number of jobs gained after all jobs lost are subtracted, or the number of jobs lost after all jobs gained are added. Remember that, in good times and bad, jobs are lost and jobs are added every month.  In good times and bad, millions of people quit, millions of people are hired, and millions of people are laid off or fired every month.






The monthly JOLTS report (Jobs Openings, Layoffs, Turnover Survey), breaks down the number of people hired, laid off, and or who quit.  It is published a month behind the regular monthly jobs report.  Over time, the monthly report and the JOLTS report provide very similar numbers.  The following numbers are based on the latest report for December 2013, which was released in February 2014.  The next JOLTS report, for January 2014, will not be released until March. 



How many people have been LAID OFF or FIRED in total in 2013 so far?

  • January:                               1,520,000
  • February:                              1,572,000
  • March:                                     1,686,000
  • April:                                   1,741,000
  • May:                                    1,752,000
  • June:                                   1,602,000  
  • July:                                    1,589,000
  • August:                                1,676,000
  • September:                           1,756,000
  • October:                                1,504,000
  • November:                            1,499,000
  • December:                            1,608,000 
  • Total 2013:                        19,505,000

    Note:  This is the LOWEST number of people laid off in a year going back to the year 2000 when the JOLTS report was first published.

How many people have been laid off or fired each day in 2013 so far?
  • An average of 53,438 people have been laid off or fired each day in 2013.  This is the lowest number of people laid off or fired per day for any year since 2000.


How many people have QUIT their jobs in 2013 so far?


  • January:            2,260,000            
  • February:           2,286,000
  • March:               2,099,000
  • April:                 2,185,000
  • May:                  2,233,000
  • June:                 2,205,000
  • July:                  2,342,000
  • August:              2,364,000
  • September:         2,327,000
  • October:             2,382,000
  • November:          2,414,000
  • December:          2,373,000
  • Total 2013:       27,470,000
Note:  An average of 75,260 people quit their jobs EACH DAY in 2013.  This is the highest number of quits in a year in five years, since 2008.  Increasing numbers of quits are a good thing, as they indicate both that people are willing to take a chance and quit an old job to take a new job and that people are finding new jobs and, as a result, quitting their old jobs.  Notice that many more people are now quitting their jobs vs. being laid off or fired.     

How many people have left their work for OTHER reasons (like retirement) in 2013 so far?

  • January:            393,000
  • February:           323,000
  • March:               338,000
  • April:                 360,000
  • May:                  396,000
  • June:                 420,000  
  • July:                  342,000
  • August:              365,000
  • September:         394,000
  • October:             319,000
  • November:          365,000
  • December:          390,000
  • Total 2013:      4,405,000    

    Note:  An average of 12,100 people left their jobs for "other reasons" like retirement EACH DAY in 2013.


How many total separations in 2013 so far?



  • January:           4,173,000
  • February:          4,180,000
  • March:              4,123,000
  • April:                4,287,000
  • May:                 4,381,000
  • June:                4,228,000
  • July:                 4,273,000
  • August:             4,405,000
  • September:        4,477,000
  • October:            4,205,000
  • November:         4,278,000
  • December:         4,370,000
  • Total 2013:      51,380,000 

Note:  An average of 140,767 people left their jobs for any reason EACH DAY in 2013. 




How many people have been hired in 2013 so far?



  • January:            4,298,000 
  • February:           4,451,000
  • March:               4,227,000
  • April:                 4,395,000
  • May:                  4,490,000
  • June:                    4,318,000
  • July:                  4,497,000
  • August:              4,559,000
  • September:         4,632,000
  • October:             4,484,000
  • November:          4,529,000
  • December:          4,437,000
  • Total 2013:       53,317,000

Note:  An average of 146,073 people were HIRED EACH DAY in 2013.  That means that, on average, 6,000 MORE people were hired each day in 2013 than left their jobs for any reason.  

How many jobs have been gained or lost (NET:  Hires minus Separations) in 2013 so far?

  • January:            +125,000
  • February:           +271,000           
  • March:               +104,000
  • April:                 +108,000
  • May:                  +109,000
  • June:                 +  90,000 
  • July:                  +224,000
  • August:              +154,000
  • September:         +155,000
  • October:             +279,000  
  • November:          +251,000
  • December:          +  67,000
  • Total 2013:      +1,937,000  


    Net job growth reported in 2013 through December 2013 from the CES (Current employment survey):  +2,322,000.  
    Over time, as more complete data is received, the numbers from JOLTS and CES tend to become very close.


    how many fired series

Saturday, April 27, 2013

Changes in State Eligibility for Unemployment Insurance (May 4th)


Changes in state unemployment rates have resulted in changes in availability of unemployment insurance benefits in Alaska, Ohio, and Wisconsin.  Changes will take effect the first and second weeks of May as described below.
Update July 24, 2013:  There have been or will be changes to available weeks of benefits in California, Washington, Rhode Island, North Carolina, Maine, New Jersey, West Virginia, Louisiana, the Virgin Islands, Delaware, Illinois, Alabama, Mississippi, and Michigan.  Please check THIS LINK (How Many Weeks of Unemployment Will I Get?) for details.


As unemployment insurance benefits are tied into the unemployment rate for your particular state, changes to your state's unemployment rate may increase or decrease the number of weeks of benefits to which you are entitled.

Weeks of unemployment insurance availability are changing for Alaska, Ohio, and Wisconsin. 

The Department of Labor announced changes HERE for the above listed states on Thursday, April 25th, as listed below:


  • People in Alaska lose Extended Benefits and Cannot Move to Tier 4:
Alaska's IUR has fallen below the 6.0% trigger threshold, to remain "on" in the EB program.Based on data from Alaska for the week ending April 13, 2013, the 13 week insured unemployment rate in Alaska is below the 6.0% trigger threshold to remain "on" in the EB program. The payable period in EB for Alaska will end with the week ending May 4, 2013. 
Alaska's IUR has fallen below the 6.0% trigger threshold to remain "on" in Tier 4 of EUC08.Based on data from Alaska for the week ending April 13, 2013, the 13 week insured unemployment rate in Alaska is below the 6.0% trigger rate threshold to remain "on" in Tier 4 of EUC08. The week ending May 4, 2013, will be the last week in which EUC claimants in Alaska can exhaust Tier 3, and establish Tier 4 eligibility. Under the phase-out provisions, claimants can receive any remaining entitlement they have in Tier 4 after May 4, 2013.
It appears that the maximum number of weeks of unemployment insurance available in Alaska will decline from 86 weeks to 63 weeks after May 4, 2013.

  • People in Ohio now qualify for for nine extra weeks under Tier 3:
Ohio's trigger value meets the 7.0% trigger threshold, establishing an eligibility period in Tier 3 of EUC08.
Based on data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on April 19, 2013, the three month average, seasonally adjusted total unemployment rate in Ohio has met 7.0% trigger threshold to trigger "on" in Tier 3 of EUC08.   The week beginning May 5, 2013, will be the first week in which EUC08 claimants in Ohio who have exhausted Tier 2, and are otherwise eligible, can establish Tier 3 eligibility.

  • People in Wisconsin will qualify for nine extra weeks under Tier 3 starting May 12, 2013. 
Wisconsin' s trigger value meets the 7.0% threshold to trigger "on" to Tier 3, but mandatory "off" period in EUC08 delays trigger "on" date.
Based on data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on April 19, 2013, the three month average, seasonally adjusted total unemployment rate for Wisconsin has met the 7.0 % trigger rate threshold to trigger "on" in Tier 3 of the EUC08 program.
 
However, Wisconsin is currently in a 13 week mandatory "off" period that started February 9, 2013, and will not conclude before May 11, 2013. As a result, Wisconsin will remain in an "off" period in Tier 3 of EUC08 through May 11, 2013, and will trigger "on" to Tier 3 of the EUC08 program effective May 12, 2013. The week beginning May 12, 2013, will be the first week in which EUC08 claimants in Wisconsin who have exhausted Tier 2, and are otherwise eligible, can establish Tier 3 eligibility.


Friday, April 26, 2013

The Unemployment Rate Would Be 11% If Only...


...The Labor Force Participation Rate hadn't gone down! 

Students at East Los Angeles College


As I scream into the night... again.. .about the labor force participation rate:  

I was replying to an article on long-term unemployment over at the Daily Beast (written by Megan McArdle), and someone brought up the "labor force participation rate" (which is the percent of people in the civilian non-institutional population who are actually employed or actively looking for work during a given month.)


Somebody mentioned the labor participation rate in a comment, the content of which is typical among Republicans, right wingers, and others who aren't very savvy about jobs numbers:

No, unemployment did not go down. If we had merely the same rate of labor force participation as we had in Jan 2009, the unemployment rate would be 11%. 

So I bang my head against the wall and write (again):


There is NO Ideal Labor Force Participation Rate!

The labor force participation rate generally goes up and down based on demographic and social trends as well as the overall economy.  

The BLS and economists as a whole have been waiting for the labor force participation rate to go down for years, as they could all see that the Baby Boomers, a huge portion of our population, were getting older.. and would be starting to leave the labor force.  

Older People are leaving the work force.. and there are millions of them!  

The labor participation rate of people 55+ has actually been going up for a couple of reasons, one of them being the increase in the retirement age, another being the fact that many people have less physically taxing jobs and they can work longer.  Of course, the recession also impacted the nest egg of many Baby Boomers, forcing some of them to work longer than they anticipated.

But every month a large number of Baby Boomers do leave the work force.  And because there are so many Baby Boomers as a whole, it does significantly impact the overall labor participation rate.  Do the people who insist that our unemployment rate should really be 11% want people not to retire?  Do they want to force older people to remain in the work force and look for jobs?

More Young People are in School... and that means fewer young people in the work force.   

The other big social change that has impacted the labor force participation rate among younger people (16-24) is that enrollment in school has increased ever since the BLS started tracking labor participation.  The more people are in school, the fewer are in the labor force.  (This is true even though many people who are enrolled in school do work full time or part time.  As a whole, more people in school means less participation in the labor force.)

The labor force participation of young people 16 to 24 actually peaked in the Carter years, and, after the recession of 1981 ended, it peaked again in the late Reagan years.  Since 1989, the percentage of young people in the labor force has gone relentlessly down.  And the percentage of young people under 30 in school has gone relentlessly up during those same years.

So.... Do people who blather on about the "labor participation rate" really believe we should keep people from retiring and keep people from going to school in an effort to prop up the "labor participation rate"?                  

Thursday, April 25, 2013

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease (April 25th report)


Weekly unemployment initial claims decreased by 16,000 this week after increasing by 7,000 the week before.  


First time unemployment jobless claims decreased to 339,000  for the week ending April 20th.   This is a sizable decrease of 16,000 claims.  Since the beginning of the year, new weekly claims have remained in the range of 330,000 to 360,000 for eleven out of the past sixteen weeks. 

The four-week moving average # of claims decreased by 
4,500 last week after increasing by 3,500 the week before.  First time claims continue at about the same level that they were five years ago, in late 2007 to early 2008.  


(Even though the weekly initial claims numbers are seasonally adjusted, these numbers are always a bit volatile and should  only be analyzed in terms of a trend over a period of weeks.  See the graph below.) 


For the week ending April 6th, 5,071,050 people were receiving unemployment benefits under one of the programs that are available (regular state, federal extended unemployment compensation, or a few other smaller programs).  This was a decrease of about 81,605 continuing claims since the previous week.  The number of continuing claims in the Regular State program (the first 20 to 26 weeks of unemployment benefits) continued to decline and decreased by 92,798.  Continuing claims in the Federal Extended Unemployment Benefits program (the "Tiers") increased slightly by 7,761 claims.

1,600,000 FEWER 
people are receiving unemployment benefits now vs. one year ago.  We do not know what has happened to the people who are no longer receiving benefits; we do not know how many of those 1,600,000 people found employment, how many retired, etc.  We do know that there are 1,266,000 more people reporting themselves as employed than a year ago and there are  1,910,000 more non-farm jobs.  We also know that a grand total of 47,546,000 people have been hired between April 2012 and February 2013, the latest month for which numbers are available.  

 

The percent of unemployed people receiving benefits decreased to about 42.9% for the week ending April 6th.


If you are receiving benefits, you may be interested in these two reports:  






The chart above is one of the BEST charts for understanding and observing changes in the weekly initial claims numbers over time.  This year (red:  2012-13) and the past three years (blue:  2009-10green:  2010-11 and black:  2011-12) are marked in different colors.  You can see that, as a trend, first time claims for unemployment have declined from one year to the next, even though there are variations within the year.  You can also see the impact of Hurricane Sandy on claims in November 2012.  Though the number of initial unemployment claims has been variable over the past three months, it has continued a downward trajectory.  

Be aware that:
  1. The graph above shows first time claims, so people who have continued to receive benefits or who have lost unemployment benefits are not counted in these numbers.  
  2. They are seasonally adjusted, so most variations caused by weather or holidays are already included in these numbers.  
  3. As these are weekly numbers, they are more volatile than the monthly numbers.


First time unemployment claims decreased by 16,000 over those reported last week.  Last week's initial claims numbers were revised upwards by 3,000.  There are usually slight upwards revisions  (1,000 to 3,000) in the numbers of initial claims in most weeks.  Numbers reported this week also reflected changes in seasonal adjustments announced last month.  (The chart above shows REVISED claims numbers.)

As usual, to put this into perspective, check out the red line on the chart above to see where jobless claims are now, in late 2012/early 2013, compared to the past three years.

From the current report:
In the week ending April 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 339,000, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 355,000. The 4-week moving average was 357,500, a decrease of 4,500 from the previous week's revised average of 362,000.
The initial claims as announced last week were 352,000, so the claims from that week were revised upwards by 3,000 to 355,000. 


Current February/March/April Initial Claims Continue to be the Lowest Since Late 2007/Early 2008.

As a whole, the current numbers of initial claims continue to be the lowest Winter-Spring initial claims numbers since late 2007/early 2008.
  

Continuing regular state claims, from people who are continuing to claim unemployment through the initial 20 to 26 week regular unemployment program, declined 93,000 for the week ending April 13th after decreasing 10,000 the week before.  3,000,000 people filed continuing regular state claims in the week ending April 13th.  As a whole, continuing regular claims continue to decline despite some individual weekly increases.  (There were 3,345,000 continuing claims a year ago.) 

Total number of people receiving unemployment insurance is 42.9% of the officially unemployed for the week ending April 6th.  

The weekly report also tells us the total number of people who are receiving unemployment benefits.  For the week ending April 6th, 5,071,050 people were receiving unemployment benefits under one of the programs that are available (regular state, extended benefits, federal extended unemployment compensation, or a few other smaller programs).  This compares with 11,815,000 people who are unemployed in unadjusted numbers according to the monthly March unemployment situation report which was released Friday, April 5th.  Those numbers, showing that only 42.9% of the officially unemployed are receiving benefits, should make it clear that people do NOT need to be receiving unemployment insurance to be counted among the unemployed.  (This ratio and these two numbers are NOT seasonally adjusted.)

Extended Benefits (EB) Only Available in Alaska



Extended Benefits claims were only available in Alaska during the week ending April 6th.  

As of the week ending April 6th, only 329 people were still receiving Extended Benefits, as mentioned above.  As recently as April 2012, 412,411 people were receiving Extended Benefits.

Therefore, over the last year, 99.9% of the people who were receiving Extended Benefits are no longer receiving such benefits.  We do not know how many of these 412,000 people found jobs, how many have another source of income in the family, and how many have nothing. 

To reiterate, while a decrease in the number of people FILING for initial claims is a good thing and indicates that fewer people are being laid off, a decrease in the TOTAL number of people getting unemployment insurance may only show that fewer people are eligible for unemployment insurance benefits.

Any questions or confusion, please leave a comment or email me!



Wednesday, April 24, 2013

Bush Was Better Than Obama? (Or.. Not!)

Do you miss him yet? 
Billboard in Minnesota 2010 (New York Daily News)


With the dedication of the George W. Bush Presidential Library, many Bush apologists are climbing out of the proverbial woodwork.  


The following comment was found at Huffington Post as a reply to an article about unemployment:


Even with losing 750,000 jobs a month, he  (Bush) still created 3 million for his entire Presidency. And there were 10 million more people in the workforce than there are now. He also generated the most revenue of any President, and did so with lower tax rates. He did all of this after inheriting a recession from Clinton, dealing with the near financial catastrophe that was 9/11, fighting 2 wars, and being handed the biggest real estate crisis and capital crisis the world has ever seen. I'd say he did a pretty DAM GOOD job economically. I don't agree with all of his policies or his proclivity for spending, but only the most economically ignorant people in the world think he was a total failure.


The Iraq War

The Bush administration LIED its way into the Iraq War. (If you haven't yet seen it, check out the MSNBC program "Hubris" on the selling of the Iraq War.)  Thousands of people lost their lives and thousands more are permanently injured based on lies.  That in and of itself makes him a total failure. 

Inherited Recessions

The recession he inherited from Clinton was minor compared to the complete economic meltdown that Obama inherited from Bush. The total number of jobs was still increasing in January 2001 when Bush took office.  The total number of jobs had already decreased by 4.6 million before Obama set one foot into the Oval Office.  Bush created one million jobs, not three million, during his Presidency.


9/11:  No Democratic Obstruction

9/11 was a national and an economic crisis, but Bush had solid support from BOTH parties in dealing with this crisis, and it simply did NOT impact the economy and the jobs situation as much as the 2008 financial crisis did.

Housing Crisis



The housing crisis was created in large part by the deregulation of the economy under the complete control of the Republicans in the early 2000's.

Labor Force Numbers
There were at maximum 3,000,000 more people working during early 2008 than now, not 10,000,000.  As of January 2013, we have MORE people in the labor force (working or looking for work) than we ever had during the Bush years... We have never had as many people in the labor force as we have over the last few months.



Remember why the number of people employed is down compared to what it was in early 2008:  The unregulated economy thanks to complete control of the country by the Republicans in the years 2001 through early 2007.

Gee, thanks, George, and you fun-loving Republicans!



And if you DON'T believe that Bush was so wonderful, you may wish to throw a shoe:

Saturday, April 20, 2013

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase Slightly (April 18th)


Weekly unemployment initial claims increased slightly this week after decreasing the week before.  


First time unemployment jobless claims increased slightly to 352,000  for the week ending April 13th.   This is a small increase of 4,000 claims.  Since the beginning of the year, new weekly claims have remained in the range of 330,000 to 360,000 for ten out of the fifteen weeks this year. 

The four-week moving average # of claims increased by 
2,750 last week after increasing by 3,000 the week before.  First time claims continue at about the same level that they were five years ago, in late 2007 to early 2008.  


(Even though these numbers are seasonally adjusted, weekly claims numbers are always a bit volatile and should  only be analyzed in terms of a trend over a period of weeks.  See the graph below.) 


For the week ending March 30th, 5,152,655 people were receiving unemployment benefits under one of the programs that are available (regular state, federal extended unemployment compensation, or a few other smaller programs).  This was a decrease of about 125,000 continuing claims since the previous week.  The number of continuing claims in ALL programs decreased for the week ending March 30th.  Continuing claims in the Federal Extended Unemployment Benefits program (the "Tiers") decreased  by 54,999 claims, and the number of continuing claims in the Regular State program (the first 20 to 26 weeks of unemployment benefits) decreased by 55,250.

1,600,000 FEWER 
people are receiving unemployment benefits now vs. one year ago.  We do not know what has happened to the people who are no longer receiving benefits; we do not know how many of those 1,600,000 people found employment, how many retired, etc.  We do know that there are 1,266,000 more people reporting themselves as employed than a year ago and there are  1,910,000 more non-farm jobs.  We also know that a grand total of 47,546,000 people have been hired between April 2012 and February 2013, the latest month for which numbers are available.  

 

The percent of unemployed people receiving benefits decreased to about 43.6% for the week ending March 30th.


If you are receiving benefits, you may be interested in these two reports:  








The chart above is one of the BEST charts for understanding and observing changes in the weekly initial claims numbers over time.  This year (red:  2012-13) and the past three years (blue:  2009-10green:  2010-11 and black:  2011-12) are marked in different colors.  You can see that, as a trend, first time claims for unemployment have declined from one year to the next, even though there are variations within the year.  You can also see the impact of Hurricane Sandy on claims in November 2012.  Though the number of initial unemployment claims has been variable over the past three months, it has continued a downward trajectory.  

Be aware that:
  1. The graph above shows first time claims, so people who have continued to receive benefits or who have lost unemployment benefits are not counted in these numbers.  
  2. They are seasonally adjusted, so most variations caused by weather or holidays are already included in these numbers.  
  3. As these are weekly numbers, they are more volatile than the monthly numbers.


First time unemployment claims increased by 4,000 over those reported last week.  Last week's initial claims numbers were revised upwards by 2,000.  There are usually slight upwards revisions  (1,000 to 3,000) in the numbers of initial claims in most weeks.  Numbers reported this week also reflected changes in seasonal adjustments announced last month.  (The chart above shows REVISED claims numbers.)

As usual, to put this into perspective, check out the red line on the chart above to see where jobless claims are now, in late 2012/early 2013, compared to the past three years.

From the current report:
In the week ending April 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 352,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 348,000. The 4-week moving average was 361,250, an increase of 2,750 from the previous week's revised average of 358,500.
The initial claims as announced last week were 346,000, so the claims from that week were revised upwards by 2,000. 


Current February/March/April Initial Claims Continue to be the Lowest Since Late 2007/Early 2008.

As a whole, the current numbers of initial claims continue to be the lowest Winter-Spring initial claims numbers since late 2007/early 2008.
  

Continuing regular state claims, from people who are continuing to claim unemployment through the initial 20 to 26 week regular unemployment program, declined 35,000 for the week ending April 6th after decreasing 12,000 the week before.  3,068,000 people filed continuing regular state claims in the week ending April 6th.  As a whole, continuing regular claims continue to decline despite some individual weekly increases.  (There were 3,328,000 continuing claims a year ago.) 

Total number of people receiving unemployment insurance is 43.6% of the officially unemployed for the week ending March 30th.  

The weekly report also tells us the total number of people who are receiving unemployment benefits.  For the week ending March 30th, 5,152,655 people were receiving unemployment benefits under one of the programs that are available (regular state, extended benefits, federal extended unemployment compensation, or a few other smaller programs).  This compares with 11,815,000 people who are unemployed in unadjusted numbers according to the monthly March unemployment situation report which was released Friday, April 5th.  Those numbers, showing that only 43.6% of the officially unemployed are receiving benefits, should make it clear that people do NOT need to be receiving unemployment insurance to be counted among the unemployed.  (This ratio and these two numbers are NOT seasonally adjusted.)

Extended Benefits (EB) Only Available in Alaska



Extended Benefits claims were only available in Alaska during the week ending March 23rd.  

As of the week ending March 23rd, only 463 people were still receiving Extended Benefits, as mentioned above.  As recently as last April, 427,673 people were receiving Extended Benefits.

Therefore, over the last year, 99.9% of the people who were receiving Extended Benefits are no longer receiving such benefits.  We do not know how many of these 427,000 people found jobs, how many have another source of income in the family, and how many have nothing. 

To reiterate, while a decrease in the number of people FILING for initial claims is a good thing and indicates that fewer people are being laid off, a decrease in the TOTAL number of people getting unemployment insurance may only show that fewer people are eligible for unemployment insurance benefits.

Any questions or confusion, please leave a comment or email me!