MAR Fri, Apr 7:+98,000 jobs. Unemployment down to 4.5%...MAR details coming.. Jobs since Trump took office?... Unemp. rate under Trump? (not yet updated)

Tuesday, November 26, 2013

Changes State Unemployment Benefits in December 2013

Changes in state unemployment rates announced in November have resulted in changes in availability of unemployment insurance benefits in Alaska, Colorado, Florida, Michigan, Rhode Island, and Washington starting in December. 
Important Note:  ALL extended unemployment benefits are scheduled to expire the week ending December 28, 2013.  Unless Congress acts to extend this program, which is unlikely due to Republican control of the House of Representatives, there will be NO federal extended unemployment benefits available after December 28, 2013. There are still about 1.3 million people depending on extended unemployment benefits. 
Changes in Extended Unemployment Benefits (The "Tiers"):

From the Department of Labor:
  • People in Colorado & Florida CANNOT Move to Tier 3:

    Colorado and Florida trigger "off" Tier 3 of EUC08 effective 12/14/2013.
Based on data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on November 22, 2013, the three month average, seasonally adjusted total unemployment rates in Colorado and Florida fell below the 7.0% trigger rate threshold to remain "on" Tier 3 of EUC08. The week ending December 14, 2013 will be the last week in which EUC08 claimants in Colorado and Florida who have exhausted Tier 2, and are otherwise eligible, can establish Tier 3 eligibility.
  • People in the Michigan and Rhode Island CAN Move to Tier 4 and qualify for 10 extra weeks under Tier 4: 
Michigan and Rhode Island trigger "on" Tier 4 of EUC08 effective 12/8/2013. 
Based on data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on November 22, 2013, the three month average, seasonally adjusted total unemployment rates in Michigan and Rhode Island meets or exceeds the 9.0% trigger rate threshold to trigger "on" Tier 4 of EUC08. The week beginning December 8, 2013 will be the first week in which EUC08 claimants in Michigan and Rhode Island who have exhausted Tier 3, and are otherwise eligible, can establish Tier 4 eligibility.
  • People in Wisconsin CAN move to Tier 3 and qualify for nine extra weeks under Tier 3:
Washington triggers "on" to Tier 3 of EUC08 effective 12/8/2013. 
Based on data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on November 22, 2013, the three month average, seasonally adjusted total unemployment rate in Washington was 7.0%, meeting the 7.0% trigger rate threshold to trigger "on" Tier 3 of EUC08. The week beginning December 8, 2013 will be the first week in which EUC08 claimants in Washington who have exhausted Tier 2, and are otherwise eligible, can establish Tier 3 eligibility.

  • People in Alaska CAN move to Tier 3 an qualify for nine extra weeks under Tier 3:   

    Alaska triggers "on" to Tier 3 of EUC08 effective 12/8/2013.

    Alaska's 13-week insured unemployment rate for the week ending November 23, 2013, exceeds the 4.0% trigger rate threshold to trigger "on" to Tier 3 of EUC08. The week beginning December 8, 2013 is the first week in which EUC08 claimants in Alaska who have exhausted Tier 2, and are otherwise eligible, can establish Tier 3 eligibility.

Monday, November 18, 2013

Changes in State Unemployment Benefits October & November 2013

Changes in state unemployment rates announced in October and November have resulted in changes in availability of unemployment insurance benefits in Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, and, Missouri, and the Virgin Islands.  Changes in Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, and Missouri took effect October 6th, 2013.  Changes in the Virgin Islands will take effect November 10th, 2103. 
Important Note:  ALL extended unemployment benefits are scheduled to expire the week ending December 28, 2013.  Unless Congress acts to extend this program, which is unlikely due to Republican control of the House of Representatives, there will be NO federal extended unemployment benefits available after December 28, 2013. There are still about 1.3 million people depending on extended unemployment benefits. 

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There have been changes to available weeks of benefits in California, Rhode Island, Washington, Alaska, North Carolina, Delaware, Illinois, Alabama, Mississippi, Michigan, and Wisconsin in recent months.  Please check THIS LINK (How Many Weeks of Unemployment Will I Get?) for details.

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As unemployment insurance benefits are tied into the unemployment rate for your particular state, changes to your state's unemployment rate may increase or decrease the number of weeks of benefits to which you are entitled.

Weeks of unemployment insurance availability are changing for Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Missouri, and the Virgin Islands. 

The Department of Labor announced changes HERE  on November 14th, as listed below:
  • People in Louisiana, Maryland, and Massachusetts Can Move To Tier 3:
The maximum number of weeks of unemployment insurance available in Louisiana, Maryland, and Massachusetts will increase from 54 weeks to 63 weeks after October 6th, 2013.   
  • People in Missouri CAN Move to Tier 3:

    The maximum number of weeks of unemployment insurance available in Missouri will increase from 41 weeks to 48 weeks after October 6th, 2013.   

  • People in the Virgin Islands CAN Move to Tier 4: 
The Virgin Islands triggers "on" to Tier 4 of EUC08 effective 11/10/2013. 
Based on data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on October 22, 2013, the estimated three month average, seasonally adjusted total unemployment rate in the Virgin Islands was 9.8%, exceeding the 9.0% trigger rate threshold to trigger "on" in Tier 4 of EUC08. The week beginning November 10, 2013, will be the first week in which EUC08 claimants in the Virgin Islands who have exhausted Tier 3 and are otherwise eligible, can establish Tier 4 eligibility.
The maximum number of weeks of unemployment insurance available in the Virgin Islands will increase from 63 weeks to 73 weeks after November 10, 2013.

Other changes in the last three months:

Friday, November 8, 2013

How Many Jobs Created or Lost in October 2013?



204,000 new jobs were CREATED or ADDED last month, in the month of October 2013.  

The private sector generated (added) 212,000 new jobs and the government sector lost (decreased) 8,000 jobs in October 2013.

735,000 FEWER people reported themselves as working in October 2013, however, this number was affected by the recent government shutdown. The survey on which this number is based asks people for their employment status as of the second week of October.  The government was still shutdown during that week.         
         

The unemployment rate increased to 7.3% in October 2013, probably due to the effect of the government shutdown, as 735,000 fewer people reported themselves as working in October.  Over 700,000 people left the labor force in October; however, this could also be the result of the government shutdown, as federal workers were not employed but not looking for work.  We won't know until next month's numbers.  (The size of the labor force is volatile.  Read more HERE.)    The unemployment rate has been below 8.0% for 14 months in a row now, starting in Summer 2012.  

Private & Government Jobs Gained & Lost Under Obama (October 2013 update)

How many jobs (total, private, and government) have been lost or gained since Obama was inaugurated? 
  • 4,311,000 TOTAL jobs (in seasonally adjusted numbers) were LOST in from the time Obama took office until the "trough" of the recession in early 2010.  That's a decrease of 3.2%.    
  • 7,234,000 jobs (in seasonally adjusted numbers) were CREATED from the "trough" of the recession until now, October 2013.  That's an increase of 5.6%.
  • In total, 2,934,000  jobs (in seasonally adjusted numbers) were ADDED from the time Obama took office until now, October 2013.  That's an increase of 2.2%.
  • We have experienced 37 months WITHOUT job losses since September 2010.  We have added 6,626,000 jobs during those 37 months. 
  • We now have 136,554,000 TOTAL non-farm jobs. 
*  These are all net figures, meaning that they represent the total number of jobs at the end of a reporting period.  All losses have been subtracted from all gains and vice verse.
    *  For the purposes of comparison, jobs are being added at a faster clip under Obama than under George Bush at the same time in his presidency.  At this point in Bush's presidency (July 2005), there were only 1,477,000 MORE jobs than when he was inaugurated in January 2001 compared to 2,271,000 MORE for Obama in June 2013.  (This will be updated for October 2013 in the next few days.)


    How many PRIVATE sector jobs have been lost or gained since Obama was inaugurated?
    • 4,198,000 PRIVATE-sector jobs (in seasonally adjusted numbers) were LOST from the time Obama took office until the "trough" of the recession in early 2010.  That's a decrease of 3.8%.
    • 7,842,000 PRIVATE-sector jobs (in seasonally adjusted numbers) were GAINED OR CREATED from the "trough" of the recession until now, October 2013.  That's an increase of 7.3%.
    • In total, 3,644,000 private sector jobs (in seasonally adjusted numbers) have been GAINED from the time Obama took office until now, October 2013.  That's a net increase of 3.3%. *
    • We have experienced 44 months of positive private-sector job GROWTH from February 2010 until October 2013.  We have added 7,842,000 private-sector jobs during those 44 months.    
    • We now have 114,692,000  PRIVATE sector non-farm jobs.
    *As of July 2013,  jobs were being added at a faster clip under Obama than under George Bush at the same time in his presidency.  At this point in Bush's presidency (July 2005), there were only 455,000 MORE private sector jobs than when he was inaugurated in January 2001 compared to 3,003,000 MORE for Obama.    (This will be updated for October in the next few days.)   

    How many GOVERNMENT jobs have been lost or gained since Obama was inaugurated?  (Government jobs include federal, state, and local government jobs.)
    • 113,000 GOVERNMENT jobs (in seasonally adjusted numbers) were LOST from the time Obama took office until the "trough" of the recession in early 2010.  That's a decrease of 0.5%  (about half of a percent). 
    • Another 608,000 GOVERNMENT jobs (in seasonally adjusted numbers) were LOST from the "trough" of the recession until now, October 2013.  That's a decrease of 2.7%.    
    • In total, 721,000 GOVERNMENT jobs (in seasonally adjusted numbers) were LOST from the time Obama took office until now, July 2013.  That's a decrease of 3.2%.  A large portion of these jobs, about 300,000, have been lost in the "Local Government - Education" sector. (Teachers.)
    • We have experienced decreases in the number of government jobs in 26 out of the last 36 months, starting in January 2011.  We have experienced declines in the number of government jobs in the last 4 out of the last 6 months.     
    • We now have 21,859,000 GOVERNMENT jobs, not including people in the military.  (Most civilians employed by the U.S. and working for the military are counted.)
    (Note:  Current numbers taken from the October 2013 Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation Report.  Historical numbers taken from various archived Employment Situation reports as indexed HERE. Specifics will be provided upon request; please email me or leave a comment.)

    An afterthought---

    A reader asks:

    How Many Private Sector Jobs Were Lost Because of Obama?

    We haven't lost ANY private sector jobs (net) since February 2010, a year after Obama took office.  Between January 2009 and February 2010, we lost 4,198,000 private sector jobs as stated above.

    Should we "blame" Obama for not being immediately able to stem the tide of private sector job loss in 2009?  If a house is burning out of control and the fire department comes to put out the fire, it continues to burn until it is brought under control and cooled down, right?  Now.. would you blame the fire department for the continued fire and the time to put it out after the firefighters arrive on the scene?

    Well, you might, but I wouldn't:  Here's my reasoning:  Burning Down the House!

    So my answer to this question would be a big, fat ZERO.  I do NOT feel that Obama is to blame for any loss of jobs between January 2009 and February 2010.  If you think he is, please leave a comment and explain!

    Jobs Lost, Gained Over the Past Year (October 2013 update)

    2,329,000 new jobs were CREATED or ADDED during the past year, from October 2012 to October 2013.  

    The private sector generated (added) 2,355,000 new jobs, but the government sector continued to shed (lose) jobs, 26,000 jobs, year over year from October 2012 to October 2013.

    240,000 MORE people reported themselves as working or employed, including people who are self-employed or working in agriculture, in the past year from October to October, however, this number has been affected by the October government shutdown.  The people who were furloughed generally did not report themselves as employed during the October reference week, the second week of October, as they were still on layoff.  We will have to see what happens to these numbers next month. 
             

    The unemployment rate has declined from 7.9% in October 2012 to the current 7.3% in October 2013.  Again, the unemployment rate increased slightly during October, probably due to the government shutdown.  When considered year over year, the decline in the unemployment rate has been due mostly to a decrease in the number of people unemployed (from 12,248,000 to 11,272,000).  The Civilian Labor Force declined significantly over the past month, but much of this decline is due to the government shutdown; again, we will have to see what happens next month.  The unemployment rate has been below 8.0% for 14 months in a row now.  

    October 2013 Unemployment Rate and Jobs Numbers

    October 2013 Jobs Numbers and Unemployment Rate were released this morning, Friday, November 8, 2013.

    October Highlights:


    • 204,000 payroll jobs added.  (August and September numbers were revised upwards.)  Job growth has averaged 190,000/month over the past 12 months.
    • Private jobs increased by 212,000.
    • Government jobs decreased by 8,000.  These jobs numbers INCLUDE federal workers affected by the shutdown:  "Federal employees on furlough during the partial federal government shutdown were still considered employed in the payroll survey because they worked or received pay for the pay period that included the 12th of the month."  In other words, no federal workers were taken off of the payroll during the two shutdown weeks. 
    • Therefore, "There were no discernible impacts of the partial federal government shutdown on the estimates of employment, hours, and earnings from the establishment survey."
    • Unemployment rate ticked up to 7.3% (from 7.2%), however this includes over 400,000 federal workers who said that they were unemployed on "temporary layoff".  
    • The labor force decreased by 720,000 in October, but this also partially reflects government workers affected by the shutdown who may have misclassified themselves.   
    • NOTE:  To repeat, the government shutdown did not appreciably affect the payroll numbers because no government employees were taken off of payroll during the shutdown.  However, the Household Survey is based on workers' answers to questions.  Workers affected by the shutdown should have been classified as unemployed/on temporary layoff during the shutdown, but it appears that some did not answer the questions correctly.  Therefore, the Household Survey was affected by the shutdown.  Both the increase in the unemployment rate and the drop in the civilian labor force may have been related to the government shutdown.  It is best not to draw any conclusions on the long-term direction of the unemployment rate or the size of the civilian labor force based on October data. 
    • Since the "trough" of the recession in late 2009/early 2010 in seasonally adjusted numbers:
      • 7.2 million MORE jobs in total
      • 7.8 million MORE private sector jobs
      • 5.5 million MORE people working* 
      Since Bush left office & Obama took office (January 2009) in seasonally adjusted numbers:
      • 2.9 million MORE jobs in total
      • 3.6 million MORE private sector jobs
      • 1.4 million MORE people working*

    October 2013 reports:

    How Many Jobs Has Obama Created or Lost? (October 2013 update)

    *******************************************************************

    July 2015 update for THIS REPORT found HERE.

    July 2015 numbers were released Friday, August 7.  Details HERE.
    ******************************************************************


    How many NET jobs created or lost under Obama as of October 2013?  How many private sector jobs have been lost or added during Obama's presidency?

    How many new jobs in the last 4 years since Obama was inaugurated?  
    How many Americans were working or employed when Obama took office... compared to now?

    Answers to these questions below the links..

    All other jobs reports (2011 - 2014) indexed HERE

    How Many Jobs (Net) Created in 2013 to date?


    (NOTE:  Numbers marked with a * have been affected by the October government shutdown.) 


    Numbers for October with all revisions:

    Since the "trough" of the recession in late 2009/early 2010 in seasonally adjusted numbers:
    • 7.2 million MORE jobs in total
    • 7.8 million MORE private sector jobs
    • 5.5 million MORE people working* 

    Since Bush left office & Obama took office (January 2009) in seasonally adjusted numbers:
    • 2.9 million MORE jobs in total
    • 3.6 million MORE private sector jobs
    • 1.4 million MORE people working*

    How many workers were full-time or part-time when Obama was inaugurated compared to now?

    • 456,000 MORE people working full-time*
    • 927,000 MORE people working part-time*  

    Have any private jobs been lost (net) over the past 
    44 months?
    NO!
    • 44 months of consecutive private-sector job growth.

    Have any jobs been lost (net) over the past 37 months?

    NO!
    • 37 months of consecutive overall job growth.
    Are more people unemployed now than when Obama took office in January 2009?  
    NO!
    • Despite 603,000* MORE people in the labor force (either working or actively looking for work) now vs. January 2009, there are 807,000* FEWER people unemployed now than in January 2009. 



    What's the difference between "net" and "gross" jobs gained and lost?


    Let's get something straight:  Jobs are lost every week and every month.  People are fired, people are laid off, businesses or locations are closed and everybody is let go. 
     

    Also people quit every week.  You yourself, dear reader,  may have quit a job at some point in time. 


    But people are also HIRED every week and every month.  New businesses open, businesses expand, businesses replace people who have left or been fired.  Every week.  You yourself, dear reader, may have been hired for a job at some point in time.This happens in good times and bad. 

    Yes, even in bad times, people are getting hired.  Even in good times, people are let go.  

    Now:  The monthly jobs reportupon which this article is based, presents estimates based on surveys as to how many jobs are gained or lost in a given month.  Those numbers are based on the number of new jobs (people getting hired, businesses opening) MINUS the number of jobs that have been cut (people getting fired, people quitting, businesses closing or cutting back).

    The monthly jobs report therefore reports NET job growth or loss.  


    For 37 months in this country, we have had MORE jobs being added than we have had jobs being cut.  For 44 months in the private sector (not counting federal workers, state or local workers such as teachers, firemen, cops, or people who staff the DMV, only counting people who work for private businesses), we have had MORE jobs added than we have had jobs being cut.


    To reiterate:  How many jobs have been created in the last 4 years versus how many jobs have been lost?
    All numbers provided on monthly jobs reports, which is what the series on jobs created/lost under Obama is based, are NET jobs numbers.  In other words, they reflect gains after all job losses are subtracted, or they reflect job losses after all gains are added. 
    For the past 44 months (as of October 2013), we have had NET gains in private jobs numbers every month.  In other words, in every month since February 2010, more private jobs have been created than have been lost.  In every month since September 2010, more jobs in total have been created than have been lost.


    Fact check and important information on these jobs numbers...

    The numbers above are from the BLS jobs report of October 2013, which was released in November 2013.  The surveys used to gather these numbers are taken as of the week which includes the 12th day of the month, in this case, October 12, 2013.   (The government was still shutdown during the week of October 12th.)

    What Was the Unemployment Rate When Obama Took Office Compared to Now? (October 2013 update)


    What was the unemployment rate after Obama's first full month in office (February 2009)?  8.3%

    What was the unemployment rate at peak?  10.0%


    What is today's (October 2013's) unemployment rate?   7.3%*  (Note:  The October unemployment rate has been impacted by the government shutdown.)
    How many people were looking for work when Obama was inaugurated; how many were working?  And how many people are looking for work and how many are employed now?
    • Read below the graph.
    • The following chart shows the unemployment rate in three month intervals plus month-by-month for the latest months:  









    Why are there two lines, one for "Seas Adjusted" and one for "Unadjusted"?

    The Bureau of Labor Statistics uses seasonal adjustments to adjust for the volatility in the labor market from one month to the next.  The relatively even red line above shows the unemployment rate based on seasonally adjusted numbers.  The jagged green line shows the unemployment rate based on "real", "raw" numbers; the unadjusted rate.  Notice that the green line goes up in January (after holiday layoffs) and July (school-related layoffs), and it goes down in October and April, which are strong months for workers.  (Employees are all back to school in October, and employers are staffing up for the holidays.  Schools are also full in April and employers are starting to staff up for summer, construction, vacation venues, etc.)  The red line helps us to compare the unemployment rate over a period of months; the green line, however, reflects "reality":  Your friends, neighbors, and family members actually working or not working.