Friday, February 7, 2014

Disappointed! Were Millions of Jobs Really Lost in January?


Disappointed!  We actually LOST 2,870,000 jobs in January! 



Remember "Disappointed" from "A Fish Called Wanda? 
January's jobs numbers are out, and the reports show that we only added 113,000 jobs last month.  And the December addition of 74,000 jobs was only revised to a measly 75,000.  

Does this mean that growth in jobs has ended?  Are we heading into another recession?  Is ObamaCare keeping employers from hiring?  There's a lot of speculation out there about what this number means.. or doesn't mean, and many, many bloggers and writers are claiming that they are "Disappointed" over these numbers.    

But were these numbers really so "disappointing"?

Let's remember that plus 113,000 is a seasonally adjusted number.  "Real" unadjusted numbers always go down in January.  Always.  In fact, we actually LOST 2,870,000 jobs in January; we didn't really "add" any jobs at all.  Sounds horrible, right? Except that we lost 2,864,000 jobs in January 2013, 2,592,000 in January 2012, 2,865,000 in January 2011, and 2,870,000 in January 2010. And we even lost 2,752,000 jobs in January all the way back in the halcyon days of 1999.

Those "seasonal adjustments" again..

Now, job growth in the years just mentioned "adjusted" to 113,000 (now in 2014), +197,000 in 2013, + 360,000 in 2012, +70,000 in 2011, +18,000 in 2010, and +123,000 in 1999. These monthly jobs reports were never meant to be the do all and the be all as there is so much variability in them, so many adjustments, and they should only be regarded as trends over a period of time. And then there are the revisions, which have tended be positive revisions over the past 2-3 years. 

The Weather Factor 

I personally thought that the numbers would be worse, as the weather has just pounded the country and many, many people are just not doing anything, not buying anything, etc. I think we won't know for sure what the job market will look like in 2014 for a couple of months yet. Next week is the February reporting week, and that week is supposed to still be miserably cold.

Is ObamaCare hurting hiring?  

As far as ObamaCare, the CBO released a report earlier this week than mentioned that we might lose the equivalent of 2.4 million full-time jobs over the next ten years due to ObamaCares.  But the report (I did read the notorious Appendix C which discusses this) talks about people reducing their hours or not working either due to the tax effects of the subsidies or because they can retire or start a business and still get health care.  Two million jobs are NOT going to go away because employers are not hiring.  The jobs and hours lost will be on the side of labor, not the employer. No wonder the righties are jumping all over that report and want to scare people.  It wouldn't be good for corporations if employees had more choice.. and didn't have to work until they dropped just to keep their health insurance, right?


How Many Jobs Were Created in 2014? (January 2015 update)

How Many Jobs Have Been Created in 2015?  

How Many Jobs Have Been Created in 2016?  


All 2011-2016 jobs highlights and reports are listed HERE.


Total Jobs Created/Lost In 2014  (Second estimate as of January 2015):
  • 3,116,000 payroll jobs have been ADDED in 2014 in seasonally adjusted numbers.
  • The is the largest number of jobs added in a year since 1999.
  • That's an additional 260,000 jobs per month in 2014.
  • 3,043,000 private payroll sector jobs have been ADDED in seasonally adjusted numbers.
  • That's an additional 254,000 private jobs per month in 2014.
  • 73,000 government sector (federal, state, and local) jobs have been GAINED in seasonally adjusted numbers. 
  • That's a gain of 6,000 government jobs per month in 2014.
  • 2,771,000 MORE people are employed.
  • That's an additional 231,000 people employed each month so far in 2014.
  • 2,694,000 MORE people are working full-time in 2014.
  • 72,000 MORE people are working part-time in 2014.
  • These are NET numbers, meaning they are the numbers of jobs ADDED after all jobs LOST are subtracted.  


Jobs Lost Gained Past Year

January 2014 jobs numbers and unemployment reports were released Friday morning, February 7th.  

This report is under construction.  Please check back for latest numbers and charts!

Jobs Created Lost January 2014


In January 2014:
  • 113,000 payroll jobs were ADDED in seasonally adjusted numbers.
  • 142,000 private payroll sector jobs were ADDED in seasonally adjusted numbers.
  • 29,000 government sector (federal, state, and local) jobs were LOST in seasonally adjusted numbers. 
  • Was this a disappointment?  What does it mean? Read here:

January 2014 jobs numbers and unemployment reports were released Friday, February 7th.  

This is a summary; details will be added to this report soon.  Please check back for more information.


Private govt jobs gained lost Obama

January 2014 jobs numbers and unemployment reports were released Friday, February 7th.  

 Please check back for latest numbers and charts!

Thursday, February 6, 2014

How Many Jobs Has Obama Created or Lost? (January 2014 update)

*******************************************************************

July update for THIS REPORT found HERE.

July 2015 numbers were released Friday, August 7.  Details HERE.
******************************************************************

All other jobs reports (2011 through 2015) indexed HERE

How many NET jobs created or lost under Obama as of January 2014?  How many private sector jobs have been lost or added during Obama's presidency?

How many new jobs in the last 5 years since Obama was inaugurated?  
How many Americans were working or employed when Obama took office... compared to now?

Numbers for January with latest revisions:

Since the "trough" of the recession in late 2009/early 2010 in seasonally adjusted numbers:
  • 7.8 million MORE jobs in total
  • 8.5 million MORE private sector jobs
  • 7.2 million MORE people working
How many workers were full-time or part-time at the "trough" of the recession in late 2009/early 2010 compared to now?

  • 7.1 million MORE people working full-time.
  • 61,000 MORE people working part-time.  
  • (Yes, despite what you may have heard, from the depth of the recession until now, we have created many more full-time vs. part-time jobs.  When a recession hits, companies generally cut back on full-time workers first.  When companies start hiring again, the number of full-time workers increases.)

Since Bush left office & Obama took office (January 2009) in seasonally adjusted numbers:
  • 3.5 million MORE jobs in total
  • 4.3 million MORE private sector jobs
  • 3.1 million MORE people working

How many workers were full-time or part-time when Obama was inaugurated compared to now?

  • 1.8 million MORE people working full-time
  • 1.2 million MORE people working part-time  

Have any private jobs been lost (net) over the past 
47 months since February 2010?
NO!
  • 47 months of consecutive private-sector job growth.

Have any jobs been lost (net) over the past 40 months since September 2010?

NO!
  • 40 months of consecutive overall job growth.
Are more people unemployed now than when Obama took office in January 2009?  
NO!
  • Despite 1,250,000 MORE people in the labor force (either working or actively looking for work) now vs. January 2009, there are 1,822,000 FEWER people unemployed now than in January 2009. 






What's the difference between "net" and "gross" jobs gained and lost?


Let's get something straight:  Jobs are lost every week and every month. People are fired, people are laid off, businesses or locations are closed and everybody is let go. 
 



Also people quit every week.  You yourself, dear reader,  may have quit a job at some point in time. 

But people are also HIRED every week and every month.  New businesses open, businesses expand, businesses replace people who have left or been fired.  Every week.  You yourself, dear reader, may have been hired for a job at some point in time.This happens in good times and bad. 

Yes, even in bad times, people are getting hired.  Even in good times, people are let go.  

Now:  The monthly jobs reportupon which this article is based, presents estimates based on surveys as to how many jobs are gained or lost in a given month.  Those numbers are based on the number of new jobs (people getting hired, businesses opening) MINUS the number of jobs that have been cut (people getting fired, people quitting, businesses closing or cutting back).

The monthly jobs report therefore reports NET job growth or loss.  


For 40 months in this country, we have had MORE jobs being added than we have had jobs being cut.  For 47 months in the private sector (not counting federal workers, state or local workers such as teachers, firemen, cops, or people who staff the DMV, only counting people who work for private businesses), we have had MORE jobs added than we have had jobs being cut.


To reiterate:  How many jobs have been created in the last 5 years versus how many jobs have been lost?
All numbers provided on monthly jobs reports, which is what the series on jobs created/lost under Obama is based, are NET jobs numbers.  In other words, they reflect gains after all job losses are subtracted, or they reflect job losses after all gains are added. 
For the past 47 months (as of January 2014), we have had NET gains in private jobs numbers every month.  In other words, in every month since February 2010, more private jobs have been created than have been lost.  In every month since September 2010, more jobs in total have been created than have been lost.


Fact check and important information on these jobs numbers...

The above jobs numbers are from the BLS jobs report of January 2014, which was released in February 2014.  The surveys used to gather these numbers in January are taken as of the week which includes the 12th day of the month, in this case, January 12, 2014. 

What Was the Unemployment Rate When Obama Took Office (Compared to now)?

The following report is outdated.  It has been updated for NOVEMBER 2016 HERE.

This report is outdated.  For current reports, please click on one of the links above. 


What was the unemployment rate when Bush left office and Obama was inaugurated?  
7.8% 

What was unemployment when Obama took office?  How many people were unemployed?  Read below

What was the unemployment rate after Obama's first full month in office (February 2009)?  8.3%

What was the unemployment rate at peak?  10.0%

What is today's (January 2014's) unemployment rate?   6.6%  

(What is the unemployment rate in June 2016?  4.9%)  


All Latest Jobs and Unemployment Reports HERE

How many people were looking for work when Obama was inaugurated; how many were working?  And how many people are looking for work and how many are employed now?

  • Read below the graph.
  • The following chart shows the unemployment rate in three month intervals plus month-by-month for the latest months:


Why are there two lines, one for "Seas Adjusted" and one for "Unadjusted"?

The Bureau of Labor Statistics uses seasonal adjustments to adjust for the volatility in the labor market from one month to the next.  The relatively even declining red line above shows the unemployment rate based on seasonally adjusted numbers.  The jagged green line shows the unemployment rate based on "real", "raw" numbers; the unadjusted rate.  Notice that the green line goes up in January (after holiday layoffs) and July (school-related layoffs), and it goes down in October and April, which are strong months for workers.  (Employees are all back to school in October, and employers are staffing up for the holidays.  Schools are also full in April and employers are starting to staff up for summer, construction, vacation venues, etc.)  The red line helps us to compare the unemployment rate over a period of months; the green line, however, reflects "reality":  Your friends, neighbors, and family members actually working or not working.  

January 2014 Unemployment Rate Jobs

January 2014 Jobs Numbers and Unemployment Rate were released Friday, February 7, 2014.

January Highlights:

  • 113,000 payroll jobs added.  (December numbers were revised upwards very slightly, by 1,000; November numbers were revised upwards significantly.)  Job growth has averaged 194,000/month over the past 12 months.  But people are still "Disappointed" and spreading misinformation.  Read about that HERE.
  • Private jobs increased by 142,000.
  • Government jobs decreased by 29,000. This is the largest decrease in government jobs since October 2012. 
  • Unemployment rate ticked down to 6.6% (from 6.7%).  The unemployment rate decreased slightly or remained the same for whites, but increased for blacks and Hispanics in the 18 to 24 year old age group.  (The unemployment rate comes from a different source than the number of jobs which is why the unemployment rate can decline with only a minimal increase in the number of jobs.  Over time, these two numbers closely parallel each other.)   
  • The alternate unemployment rate (which includes part time workers who want full time jobs, discouraged workers, and marginally attached workers) decreased to 12.7%, a decrease of .4%, four-tenths of a percent.  This is the lowest that it has been since October 2008, over five years ago.  One year ago, the alternate unemployment rate was 14.4%.   The change was due primarily to a decrease in the number of involuntary part-time workers; that is, the number of people working part-time because they can't find full-time work.     
  • The labor force increased by 499,000 in January in "old" numbers, and by 523,000 in numbers adjusted for population control and corrections.
  • The Household survey numbers (the number of people employed and unemployed) was "benchmarked" to updated Census numbers in January, as it is every January.  This has slightly impacted the ability to compare January 2014 numbers with earlier numbers.  The benchmarks added 24,000 to the labor force and 22,000 to the number of people employed.  The number of white and Hispanics in the population decreased, and the number of blacks and Asians in the population increased. 
  • As usual, the Establishment survey numbers were adjusted in January to reflect more accurate data that is now available from employers.  Those adjustments subtracted a total of 119,000 from total establishment jobs numbers.  But a category of workers that was not previously counted among establishment jobs, services for the elderly and disabled that are provided in homes, is now counted among establishment jobs.  This added 466,000 to the total establishment jobs numbers.  The net effect of these two changes is an increase of 347,000 establishment jobs.  Prior year numbers have been adjusted to reflect these changes.
  • The number of people employed, including agricultural and self-employed, jumped 638,000 in January, with an increase of 378,000 employed full-time.
  • Since the "trough" of the recession in late 2009/early 2010 in seasonally adjusted numbers:
    • 7.8 million MORE jobs in total
    • 8.5 million MORE private sector jobs
    • 7.2 million MORE people working* 
    Since Bush left office & Obama took office (January 2009) in seasonally adjusted numbers:
    • 3.5 million MORE jobs in total
    • 4.3 million MORE private sector jobs
    • 3.0 million MORE people working*

January 2014 reports to be published: (Notation on the links will be changed to "Updated for January" when the updated reports become available.)