Friday, December 5, 2014

How Many Jobs Were Created or Lost in November 2014?

March 2015 jobs, unemployment reports HERE.

How Many Jobs Created (Gained) or Lost in November 2014?

  • 321,000 TOTAL payroll jobs were ADDED or CREATED in seasonally adjusted numbers.
  • 314,000 PRIVATE payroll sector jobs were ADDED or CREATED in seasonally adjusted numbers.
  • 7,000 GOVERNMENT (federal, state, and local) jobs were ADDED or CREATED in October. 
  • 4,000 MORE people employed.
  • 150,000 FEWER people employed full-time. 
  • 77,000 MORE people employed part-time.
  • 177,000 FEWER people employed part-time involuntarily.  (In other words, people who want full-time work but can only find part-time work.)
  • 119,000 MORE people in the civilian labor force (people either working or looking for work).
  • 115,000 MORE people unemployed.
  • Unemployment rate remains at 5.8% primarily due to an increase in the number of people who entered the labor force and started to look for work.

To Summarize:  

In summary, there are many many more payroll jobs and more people employed.  Though there are about as many people newly employed part-time as full-time, the increase in the number of people working part-time is all in the "voluntary" group; that is, people working part-time by choice.  



The unemployment rate stayed the same due to people entering the labor force.As usual, the numbers in any one month need to be taken with a grain of salt, as any movements in any one month are not necessarily trends.  However, we have now had 57 consecutive months of private sector job creation, a record as long as such numbers have been kept.  


How Many Jobs Have Been Created or Lost Under Obama? (November 2014 update)

This report has been updated for
June 2015 HERE.


How many NET jobs created or lost under Obama* as of November 2014? 
How many private sector jobs have been lost or added during Obama's presidency?


How many new jobs in the last 5 1/2 years since Obama was inaugurated?  How many Americans were working or employed when Obama took office... compared to now?

Numbers for November with latest revisions:

Since the "trough" of the recession in late 2009/early 2010 in seasonally adjusted numbers:
  • 10,390,000 MORE payroll jobs in total
  • 10,925,000 MORE private sector jobs
  • 9,274,000 MORE people working (includes self-employed and agricultural workers)
How many workers were full-time or part-time at the "trough" of the recession in late 2009/early 2010 compared to now?

  • 8,923,000 MORE people working full-time.
  • 291,000 MORE people working part-time.  
  • (Yes, despite what you may have heard, from the depth of the recession until now, we have many more additional people working full-time vs. part-time jobs. When a recession hits, companies generally cut back on full-time workers first.  When companies start hiring again, the number of full-time workers increases.)

Since Bush left office & Obama took office (January 2009) in seasonally adjusted numbers:
  • 6,069,000 MORE jobs in total
  • 6,705,000 MORE private sector jobs
  • 5,135,000 MORE people working

How many workers were full-time or part-time when Obama was inaugurated compared to now?

  • 3,664,000 MORE people working full-time
  • 1,393,000 MORE people working part-time



Have any private jobs been lost (net) over the past 57 months since February 2010?

NO!

  • 57 months of consecutive private-sector job growth.
  • The longest consecutive period of private-sector job increases since this number has been recorded. 

Have any jobs been lost (net) over the past 50 months since September 2010?


NO!

  • 50 months of consecutive overall job growth.

Are more people unemployed now than when Obama took office in January 2009?  


NO!
  • Despite 2,187,000 MORE people in the labor force (either working or actively looking for work) now vs. January 2009, there are 2,948,000 FEWER people unemployed now than in January 2009. 






*What's the difference between "net" and "gross" jobs gained and lost?


Let's get something straight:  Jobs are lost every week and every month. People are fired, people are laid off, businesses or locations are closed and everybody is let go. 
 

Also people quit every week.  You yourself, dear reader,  may have quit a job at some point in time. 


But people are also HIRED every week and every month.  New businesses open, businesses expand, businesses replace people who have left or been fired.  Every week.  You yourself, dear reader, may have been hired for a job at some point in time.This happens in good times and bad. 

Yes, even in bad times, people are getting hired.  Even in good times, people are let go.  

Now:  The monthly jobs reportupon which this article is based, presents estimates based on surveys as to how many jobs are gained or lost in a given month.  Those numbers are based on the number of new jobs (people getting hired, businesses opening) MINUS the number of jobs that have been cut (people getting fired, people quitting, businesses closing or cutting back).

The monthly jobs report therefore reports NET job growth or loss.  


For 48 months in this country, we have had MORE jobs being added than we have had jobs being cut.  For 56 months in the private sector (not counting federal workers, state or local workers such as teachers, firemen, cops, or people who staff the DMV, only counting people who work for private businesses), we have had MORE jobs added than we have had jobs being cut.


To reiterate:  How many jobs have been created in the last 5 years versus how many jobs have been lost?
All numbers provided on monthly jobs reports, which is what the series on jobs created/lost under Obama is based, are NET jobs numbers.  In other words, they reflect gains after all job losses are subtracted, or they reflect job losses after all gains are added. 
For the past 57 months (as of November 2014), we have had NET gains in private jobs numbers every month.  In other words, in every month since February 2010, more private jobs have been created than have been lost.  In every month since September 2010, more jobs in total have been created than have been lost.  This is the longest consecutive period of job growth since these numbers have been recorded.
Fact check and important information on these jobs numbers...

The above jobs numbers are from the BLS jobs report of November 2014, which was released in early December 2014.  The surveys used to gather these numbers in August are taken as of the week which includes the 12th day of the month, in this case, November 12, 2014. 

What Was the Unemployment Rate When Obama Took Office (compared to now)? November 2014 update

This report has been updated for February 2015 HERE.


What was the unemployment rate when Bush left office and Obama was inaugurated and took office? What was the unemployment rate when Obama came into office?  7.8% 

(Unemployment rate then and now on the graph below.)

What was the unemployment rate after Obama's first full month in office (February 2009)? 
 8.3%

What was the unemployment rate at peak?  10.0%


What is the unemployment rate now?  Today's unemployment rate (November 2014's)?   5.8%  


All Latest Jobs and Unemployment Reports HERE

How many people were looking for work when Obama was inaugurated; how many were working?  And how many people are looking for work and how many are employed now?

Please read below the graph.
The following chart shows the unemployment rate in three month intervals plus the last three months:






 Why are there two lines, one for "Seas Adjusted" and one for "Unadjusted" in the chart above?  This is explained at the bottom of the article.
  • What Caused the Rise in Unemployment When Obama Took Office?  Obama caused the unemployment rate to rise?  (Continue reading; the answer  is below the fold.)
  •  What Was the Unemployment Rate When Bush Took Office?  How high did it rise?  (The answer is also below the fold.)  


November 2014 Unemployment Rate, Jobs

November Highlights:
  • +321,000 new payroll jobs; +314,000 new private sector jobs.  These are really large increases.
  • Unemployment rate stays the same at 5.8%.  The number of people unemployed increased by 115,000.
  • Alternate unemployment rate drops to 11.4% (from 11.5%).
  • Labor force participation rate remains the same as 119,000 people join the civilian labor force.
  • Number of people working full-time decreased by about 150,000 while number of people working part-time increased by about 73,000.  That's 2,531,000 MORE people working full-time over the past year, since November 2013, and 309,000 MORE people working part-time over the past year. 
  • The number of involuntary part-time workers (people working part-time because they couldn't find full-time work) decreased 177,000 in November and dropped 873,000 over the past year, since November 2013.
  • September and October jobs numbers revised upwards by a total of 44,000.
Since the "trough" of the recession in late 2009/early 2010 in seasonally adjusted numbers:
  • 10.4 million MORE jobs in total
  • 10.9 million MORE private sector jobs
  • 9.3 million MORE people working
  • 8.9 million MORE people working full-time.
  • 291,000 MORE people working part-time.  
  • (Yes, despite what you may have heard, from the depth of the recession until now, we have many more additional people working full-time vs. part-time jobs. When a recession hits, companies generally cut back on full-time workers first.  When companies start hiring again, the number of full-time workers increases.)

Since Bush left office & Obama took office (January 2009) in seasonally adjusted numbers:
  • 6.1 million MORE jobs in total
  • 6.7 million MORE private sector jobs
  • 5.1 million MORE people working
  • 3.7 million MORE people working full-time
  • 1.4 million MORE people working part-time

Please check back for details and updates.


November 2014 reports: (Notation on the links will be changed to "November" or "Updated for November" when the updated reports become available.) 



Preview (written Thursday night):



Amidst the chaos of Ferguson and New York, we keep adding jobs and unemployment keeps dropping.  The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes its monthly report later this morning, Friday, December 5th.  "The pundits" expect 230,000 more jobs when the BLS counts are released, with the unemployment rate stable at 5.8%. More jobs and the same unemployment rate would mean that more people are entering the labor force in November.

Some facts and numbers to ponder as we wait for the BLS release:
  • The ADP private payroller report came out yesterday which estimated an additional 208,000 private sector jobs in November. This means, according to ADP's estimates, that the US has added over 200,000 private sector jobs 7 out of the last 8 months. 
  • The Bureau of Labor Statistics believes that we have added at least 200,000 jobs (both public and private) for 9 straight months now. 
  • October had the lowest average weekly number of initial unemployment claims since SPRING of 2000!
  • September had the lowest number of layoffs and discharges since the BLS has been keeping track of those numbers, sometime in 2000.
  • Census numbers show that we have finally turned the corner on inflation-adjusted median household income and it is slowly starting to increase.
  • Inflation-adjusted weekly and hourly wages for production and non-supervisory employees (which excludes most of the high income people) continue to creep up. These wages have been higher during the Obama years than during any six year period since the mid 1970's.
We can only imagine where we'd be in this country now if the Republicans actually worked with Obama and the Democrats for the good of the country.