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Thursday, July 2, 2015

Jobs Created, Lost June 2015

How Many Jobs Were Created (Gained) or Lost by firms, companies, or government employers in the U.S. in June 2015?


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September 2015 numbers were released Friday, Oct. 2.  Details HERE.
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  • 223,000 TOTAL payroll jobs were ADDED or CREATED in seasonally adjusted numbers.  This number was slightly less than what was projected.
  • 223,000 PRIVATE payroll sector jobs were ADDED or CREATED in seasonally adjusted numbers.
  • ZERO GOVERNMENT (federal, state, and local) jobs were ADDED or CREATED in June. 
  • 56,000 FEWER people working.
  • 349,000 FEWER people employed full-time. 
  • 161,000 MORE people employed part-time.
  • 47,000 FEWER people employed part-time involuntarily.  (In other words, people who want full-time work but can only find part-time work.)  This number has generally been going down, even when the total number of people working part-time has increased.  This means that, of people working part-time this month, in JUNE, fewer were working part-time because they couldn't find a full-time job.  But in the past year, the number of people employed part-time involuntarily, because they couldn't find a full-time job, has decreased by 991,000.
  • 375,000 FEWER people unemployed.
  • Unemployment rate decreased two-tenths of a point to 5.3%.  This was actually a good sized decrease, from 5.51% down to 5.28%.
  • The alternate unemployment rate also decreased significantly, from 10.8% to 10.5%. 
  • 432,000 FEWER people in the civilian labor force (people either working or looking for work).  The drop in the size of the labor force appears to be due to people who STOPPED WORKING and left the labor force, and considering the time of the year, it would be a good guess that a big chunk of the people who stopped working and left the labor force were retiring teachers and educators.  What happened to the labor force in JUNE?  Continue reading below...

In NET numbers, NO jobs were lost in JUNE 2015. 

If there are jobs losses, that means that there are fewer new jobs, fewer people being hired, than people being fired or jobs being cut.  If there are jobs gains, that means that there are MORE new jobs, MORE people being hired, than people being fired or jobs being cut. 


Every month since September 2010, we have had more new jobs created than jobs lost.  This is the longest period of consecutive job growth since these records have been kept.
  

The size of the Labor Force declined in June.  Did people leave the labor force in despair, discouragement, and misery?

The labor force in the United States is huge and volatile.  Millions of people enter and leave the labor force every month in the United States; you can find more specifics HERE. 


But here's what happened to people in June:

  • In May, there were 157,469,000 people in the civilian labor force.
  • 2,076,000 who were not in the labor force in May entered the labor force and started LOOKING FOR WORK in June.
  • 4,314,000 who were not in the labor force in May entered the labor force and started WORKING in June. 
  • Meanwhile, 2,149,000 people who had been looking for work in May STOPPED LOOKING FOR WORK and left the labor force in June.  This is the smallest number of unemployed people who "dropped out" of the labor force in June since 2008.  
  • And 4,756,000 people who had been employed in May STOPPED WORKING (and were not looking for work) in June.  A big chunk of these people are probably retiring Baby Boomers, in June, probably teachers, though we don't know that for sure.  This is the largest number of employed people who stopped working and left the labor force EVER.  
  • So far in 2015, we have had more people on average per month who have stopped working and left the labor force than ever before, and this number grew by 362,000 since May.  69% of the people who left the labor force in June were previously EMPLOYED, not people who were looking for work and "gave up" in despair.  
  • For every unemployed person who "gave up" for some reason and stopped looking for work and left the labor force, there were over TWO EMPLOYED people who left their jobs and left the labor force.
     
  • For every unemployed person who "gave up" for some reason and stopped looking for work, approximately THREE people (2.97) ENTERED the labor force and either started looking for work or started working.  This is the highest percentage of people who entered the labor force compared to unemployed people "dropping out" in June since 2008. 
  • These numbers, plus adjustments for relatively small numbers of people turning 16, people dying, people leaving or entering the country, resulted in a slightly smaller labor force of 157,037,000 in June.  This is the largest labor force that we have EVER had in any June of any year.  There are still about 1,337,000 more people in the labor force this June than a year ago.   

As usual, the numbers in any one month need to be taken with a grain of salt, as any movements in any one month are not necessarily meaningful trends.  However, trends that continue over a period of months are meaningful.

However, we have now had 64 consecutive months of private sector job creation, a record as long as such numbers have been kept.   And we have now had 57 consecutive months of total job creation, a record as long as such numbers have been kept. 

But how many jobs were LOST in JUNE?

All jobs numbers reported monthly by Bureau of Labor Statistics are NET jobs numbers.  In other words, they represent the number of jobs gained (newly created jobs) after all job losses are subtracted.  If there are job gains, that means that there are more new jobs, more people being hired, than people being fired or jobs being cut. 

The more specific numbers of new hires and number of jobs cut are detailed in the monthly Job Openings, Layoffs, and Turnover Survey (JOLTS) which is published about six weeks after the monthly jobs reports.  This link "How Many People were fired in 2014?" provides a more in-depth explanation of how many people lose their jobs and how many people get new jobs every month.  For example, in 2014 over 55,000 people were fired or laid off on average each DAY... but an average of 160,000 people were HIRED each DAY in 2014.

To Summarize:  

In summary, there are more newly-created payroll jobs and more people employed in June, about as many jobs as were predicted.  There was a small decrease in the number of employed people, and the number of people working full-time decreased.  The number of people working part-time by choice increased; the number of people working part-time involuntarily decreased.  


The unemployment rate declined as many people entered the labor force and started either working or looking for work, and as people left the labor force.  The number of employed people decreased slightly.

The size of the labor force declined moderately; however, an analysis of the flows data seems to indicate that the drop in the size of the labor force may have been mostly due to employed people, probably teachers, who retired in June. 


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