Thursday, September 7, 2017

Weekly Unemployment Claims: Week Ending September 2, 2017

Claims for Unemployment Benefits Jump

Thanks to Hurricane Harvey, initial claims for unemployment benefits increased by about 61,000 in seasonally adjusted numbers, 53,000 in unadjusted "real" numbers.

Notice the big hockey stick increase in the right at this graph from the Department of Labor:

From the Department of Labor
T

Friday, August 25, 2017

How Many Jobs Has Trump Created Or Lost? (July 2017 update)

How many NET jobs have been created or lost under Trump as of July 2017? How many private sector jobs have been lost or added during Trump's presidency?

*See below
 
**************************************
July 2017 numbers were released 
Friday morning, August 4th.  
All JULY reports and info will be listed  HERE.
August # will be released Friday, September 1.

  • Obama's final jobs numbers HERE.
  • Trump's million jobs:  Good or bad? HERE

**************************************

How many new jobs in the last 6 months since Trump was inaugurated?  
How many Americans were working or employed when Trump took office... compared to now?  How many of those people are working full-time vs. part-time?
*See below

Notice that the trajectory of job growth has not changed under Trump (green line at upper right).  We continue to add private sector jobs at about the same pace as we added private sector jobs under Obama.


Thursday, August 24, 2017

Trump's Million New Jobs: A Big Deal or Not?

Have a million jobs really been created during the presidency of Donald Trump?

Well, yes; since Trump took office in January 2017, six full months ago, 1,074,000 jobs have been added (in net numbers) according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics which keeps track of such things.

The issue is whether or not this is as big a deal as Trump supporters claim and whether or not this is better than job growth during the Obama years.  

See for yourself:



Friday, August 4, 2017

July 2017 Unemployment Rate, Jobs

The July 2017 Jobs Report was released by the government's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, Friday, August 4. This is another strong report, continuing last month's trend.  This report, while strong, is not better than most of the job reports during the Obama years.

The economy has been adding jobs consistently for 7 1/2 years now.  In fact, in 45 of the 84 months between early 2010 and the end of the Obama Presidency, 200,000 or more jobs were added.

The job reports under Trump (since February) seem to continue this trend of consistent addition of jobs and slow but consistent decline in the unemployment rate. 


July 2017 Job Report Highlights: 
  • The economy added 209,000 jobs, an  above average number of new jobs, and the unemployment rate declined slightly by 0.1% to 4.3% due to people entering the labor force and finding jobs.

Friday, July 7, 2017

June 2017 Unemployment Rate, Jobs

The June 2017 Jobs Report was released by the government's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, July 7. This is a strong report, seeming to reverse the weakness seen in the prior few months.  Again, one month does not make a trend, and this report, while strong, is not better than most of the job reports during the Obama years.

The economy has been adding jobs consistently for 7 years.  In fact, in 45 of the 84 months between early 2010 and the end of the Obama Presidency, 200,000 or more jobs have been added.

The job reports under Trump (since February) seem to continue this trend of consistent addition of jobs and decline in the unemployment rate. 


June 2017 Job Report Highlights: 
  • The economy added 222,000 jobs, a below average number of new jobs, and the unemployment rate grew slightly slightly by 0.1% to 4.4% due to people entering the labor force and finding jobs.

It's Jobs Day in America!


It seems like a long time since the May jobs numbers, but finally we eagerly anticipate the jobs numbers for June 2017.  


The payroll processor ADP estimates that we added 158,000 new private sector jobs in June 2017.  Their estimates have been high compared to the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) numbers for the last few months; we'll see what happens tomorrow morning.

Unemployment claims numbers continue to be very low, though not quite as low as they were in late May.  

Reuters reports that the pundits estimated that we would add 185,000 private sector jobs, so the 158,000 reported by ADP was a disappointment and was largely responsible for the drop in the stock market.

We'll see what we will see tomorrow morning, 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, very close to the time that Trump will be meeting with Putin in Germany.  So it will be a busy Friday morning.

Until tomorrow!





Sunday, June 4, 2017

Job Growth Is Usually Higher Under Democratic Administrations

Democratic administrations beat Republican administrations in terms of overall percentage of job growth.  Democratic administrations are denoted by blue bars, Republican administrations by red bars on the graph below.

(You may wish to click the photo to get a better look at the graph.)



Friday, June 2, 2017

May 2017 Unemployment Rate, Jobs

The May 2017 Jobs Report was released by the government's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, June 2. This is a fairly mediocre report, and it is unclear if it shows the beginning of a weakness in the job market, or whether it just shows an anomaly.


May 2017 Job Report Highlights: 
  • The economy added 138,000 jobs, a below average number of new jobs, and the unemployment rate fell slightly by 0.1% to 4.3% due to people leaving the labor force.
  • Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 121,000 per month.  Over the past 12 months, job gains have averaged 181,000 per month.
  • The number of employed people DECREASED by 233,000The number of unemployed people DECREASED by 195,000 as 429,000 people left the labor force, meaning that they either stopped working or stopped looking for work.  That is a NET number.
  • 367,000 FEWER people are working full-time and 133,000 MORE  people were working part-time in May.
  • There were 147,000 MORE private sector jobs, and 9,000 FEWER government jobs in May.  
  • The alternate unemployment rate (U-6) declined to 8.4% this month.  A year ago the U-6 rate was 9.7%.  
  • The Labor Force participation rate has been VERY stable since 2014, varying between 62.4% and 63%.  It was 62.7% in May, declining 0.2% since April, but rising 0.1%  over the past year.
  • Remember that there is NO ideal labor force size, and most of the overall decrease in the labor force participation RATE over the last few years has been due to Baby Boomers retiring in great numbers.
From the BLS report: 
"The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for March was revised down from +79,000 to +50,000, and the change for April was revised down from +211,000 to +174,000. With these revisions, employment gains in March and April combined were 66,000 less than previously reported. Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors. Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 121,000 per month."


May 2017 reports: (Notation on the links will be changed to "UPDATED for May" when the updated reports become available later today or over the weekend.  Not all reports are updated every month.)

More highlights and reports will continue to be posted here over the coming days and weeks.  Please check back!

Tuesday, May 9, 2017

How Many People Are Fired Each Year in the United States? (Early 2017 update)

How Many People Are Fired or Laid Off Each Year in the United States?  How Many People Are Fired Each Day in the United States?


(This article has been updated with data from the month of
February 2017.) 

How many people are not working in the U.S.?  How many adults are not working in the U.S.?  Here!
Hold on...  These numbers sound staggering:

An average of 
54,549 people were laid off or fired EACH DAY (including weekends and holidays) in 2016. (19,965,000
 people in total were laid off or fired in the 366 days of 2016.)

Monthly layoffs & discharges in thousands from the BLS JOLTS survey.


An average of 54,966 people have been laid off or fired each day (including weekends and holidays) in the first two months of 2017.  A total of 3,243,000 people have been laid off or fired in the first 59 days of 2017 (through February).

These sound like big numbers, but the 2016 number is the 
LOWEST number of annual layoffs in the 16 years since 2001.

These are huge numbers.... So.... how can the jobs numbers keep going up?  Is someone lying?  

Sunday, April 30, 2017

How Many Jobs Were Gained or Lost Under Trump During His First 100 Days?

Trump recently claimed that he was responsible for the creation of 600,000 jobs since he took office 100 days ago.  

Yes?  No?  Maybe so?

First, here's a chart that shows how Trump stacks up against Obama and George W Bush in terms of PRIVATE sector jobs.  It shows total private sector jobs from the prior peak of jobs under W back in early 2008, down through the Recession, and back up under Obama, so far continuing under Trump, as of the data available from March 2017:


Private jobs added over the past 9 years including those added during the young Trump administration 






Trump Fantasies

About two weeks ago, on April 11th, just a few days after the March jobs numbers were published, Trump insisted that he was responsible for the creation of 600,000 new jobs since he was inaugurated back in January.


CNN and several other venues called him on it and made it clear that this was not true.  CNN gave Trump credit for the 317,000 new jobs reported in February (219,000) and March (98,000).  But even CNN got things a bit wrong.  CNN wrote:

A White House spokesman said Trump is including all the job added in January as well (216,000). Trump was only in office for 11.5 days that month.


But even if you give him all of the gains for January, that still only brings the tally to 533,000 jobs created so far in 2017.



The math doesn't quite add up to 600,000.
Does anyone in the White House know how the BLS counts jobs?  Does anyone from CNN know how the BLS counts jobs?

CNN counted the net jobs added by employers and reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics during February and March.  Those numbers do add up to 317,000.  (Remember that all jobs reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics are NET jobs:  Jobs added after all jobs that were lost are subtracted and vice verse.)

One big problem with that though:  Jobs numbers are reported as of the week of the previous month that contains the 12th day of that month.  So January 2017 jobs numbers reflect jobs in the country as of the week of January 12, 2017.  And who was President on January 12, 2017?  Yeah.. A guy named Barack Obama.  So not one blessed job that was reported in January 2017 belongs in the Trump column!  Even CNN talked about a fraction of the jobs added in January as though they might belong in Trump's column..   but that's just plain wrong.

But, but, but.. all of those new jobs Trump is talking about!

Trump was also claiming that the new hires promised by corporations such as Ford, etc., should be attributed to him.  But let's remember that, when you back away from NET jobs, employers in the United States ACTUALLY added a GROSS average of 5.2 million jobs a MONTH in 2016.  So there is plenty of room in those 5.2 million jobs for new hires from Ford, GM, ExxonMobil and all the rest to add employees.  (Let's not forget that about 1.6 million people a month on average were terminated for various reasons in 2016 and about 3.1 million people a month quit their jobs voluntarily for various reasons in 2016.)

We'll have to watch Trump's jobs claims very carefully.  Two things are definitely true about Trump:
  • He lies; his staff lies, and they all lie some more.
  • He doesn't have any idea what the jobs reports really show.     


And my biggest concern about Trump:

I'm concerned that he will try to cut the staff or the quality control of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and we may wind up not knowing what the jobs numbers really are.  Democracy dies in the dark.  

Friday, April 7, 2017

How Many Jobs Has Trump Created or Lost?


Latest information and posts here:

  • Obama's final jobs numbers HERE.
  • Trump's million jobs:  Good or bad? HERE
  • How Many Jobs Has Trump Created or Lost? Latest report for July 2017 HERE

    August numbers will be available Friday, September 1.


March 2017 Unemployment Rate, Jobs

Under Construction!!

Check back later this afternoon, Friday, April 7th.

Tuesday, April 4, 2017

When Do We Get March Jobs Numbers?


When will March 2017 jobs numbers and unemployment rate be released?

Image found at CTnewsjunkie from shutterstock








T
The ADP report for March will be released Wednesday, April 5th.  

(Note:  The ADP report for March was released on Wednesday, and it showed an addition of 263,000 private sector jobs.)
ADP is NOT the official government jobs number report.  It is produced and published by payroll processor ADP and is usually released on a Wednesday two days before the big government Bureau of Labor Statistics report.  Though it is not an official report, it tends to move in concert with the BLS report and is considered to foreshadow the BLS report which follows a couple of days later.


The March Bureau of Labor Statistics (government BLS) Employment Situation report, the report that includes the number of new jobs and the unemployment rate, will be released Friday, April 7th.  This is the big report that everybody waits for.  The March report will be the second jobs report of Trump's presidency.

Note:  The BLS jobs report was released on Friday, April 7.  It showed an addition of 98,000 jobs, including 89,000 private sector jobs.  More details HERE.
Job openings?  The Jobs Openings, Layoffs, and Turnover Survey (JOLTS) is always a month plus behind the actual Employment Situation jobs report.  The JOLTS report for February will be released Tuesday, April 11th.  The JOLTS report for March will not be released until Tuesday, May 9.

Tuesday, March 28, 2017

Record Number of Job Openings Under Obama!


United States employers reported the highest number of job openings EVER in 2016 since the US started keeping track of these numbers in 2000.  


An average of 5.6 million job openings were reported each month during 2016.

The JOLTS Report

Every month the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) lists the number of job openings, new hires, and separations for various reasons, such as people being laid off or people quitting. This report is called the Job Openings, Layoffs, and Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and it is released about two months after the regular monthly jobs report; in other words, the JOLTS report for January is not released until early March.  It is a fairly new report, and has only been released since 2000.

Details


In 2016, United States employers reported the highest number of job openings ever.  An average of 5.6 million job openings was reported each month in 2016.  The top month was July 2016 in which 5.973 million job openings were reported by U. S. employers.

By comparison, in 2009, during the depth of the Recession, only 2.4 million job openings were reported on average each month.  The lowest historical month for job openings was July 2009 in which only 2.2 million job openings were reported.

Trump-- The Jobs President?

Now we will see what Trump will do to the number of job openings.  Remember that announcements of a few hundred jobs saved or created here or there is really nothing in an economy that has been recording over 5 million job openings a month.  

Friday, March 10, 2017

How Many Jobs Has Trump Created or Lost? (February 2017 update)

How many NET jobs created or lost under Trump as of February 2017, during the Trump Presidency to date? How many private sector jobs have been lost or added during Trump's presidency?
 
*******************************************************************
May 2017 numbers were released 
Friday morning, June 2nd.  
All MAY reports and info will be listed  HERE.
******************************************************************

February is the FIRST month of jobs attributed to Trump's Presidency.  Job numbers for any month are reported and counted as of the week of 12th.  Obama was still the President during the week of January 12th, which is why numbers for January 2017 fall in the Obama bucket.  Now, starting with February 2017, we get to see what effect Trump's policies will or won't have on jobs.

(Some people believe that additions or subtractions in jobs should be in the prior President's "bucket" for at least several months after a new President is inaugurated.  The reasoning for this is twofold:

  • 1.  It takes several months for an incoming President's economic policies to take effect.
  • 2.  The US Fiscal Year doesn't start until October 1st, meaning that all of the budgeting and almost all economic programs up to October 1st were developed and signed into law during the prior administration.  However, the economy is affected by apprehension, both good and bad, and an incoming administration often has leverage in how moneys appropriated by the outgoing administration are used.  Therefore, it is easiest to simply use the first full month that  a President is in office as a starting point for counting jobs.)
Let's remember that jobs tend to trend, and one or two months do not make a trend.  (Some people believe that we shouldn't count an incoming President's jobs numbers until the beginning of his first fiscal year in office, meaning starting in October, as the federal fiscal year goes from October 1st to September 30th.)  But starting with February will certainly give us a good enough trend as we move through the spring and summer.


    As we move into the Trump years, let's remember that President Obama
 handed to President Trump the strongest economy in terms of jobs since the Clinton years.  We have: * 

  • 1.  Record numbers of job openings.
  • 2.  A record in consecutive months of increase in the number of private sector jobs (83 months).
  • 3. Record in consecutive months of overall job growth.  (76 months).  
  • 4. Lowest number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits since 1971.  
  • 5.    A reduction in income inequality starting in 2014.
  • 6.  An increase in inflation-adjusted weekly and hourly wages for "regular" workers.  
  • 7.  A record-increase in inflation-adjusted household income starting in 2015.  
  • 8.  An 3% INCREASE in manufacturing jobs in Obama's second term after a 27% DECREASE in manufacturing jobs under Bush II.  This was the largest one term increase in manufacturing jobs since Carter.
  • 9.  A 19% increase in construction jobs in Obama's second term.  This was the largest one term increase in construction jobs since the Clinton years.
      

    Don't mess this up, President  Trump!  WE ARE WATCHING YOU!   

    *For those who don't believe these claims, I will post links and sources for all of these in the next few days.  

*******************************************************************

February 2017 numbers were released Friday morning, March 10th.  All FEBRUARY reports and info will be listed  HERE.
******************************************************************






e

Continue below...

Monday, February 6, 2017

How Many Jobs Has Obama Created or Lost? (Final Obama Numbers as of January 2017)

How many NET jobs created or lost under Obama* as of January 2017, during the whole Obama Presidency? How many private sector jobs have been lost or added during Obama's presidency?

This is the final month of jobs attributed to Obama's Presidency.  Job numbers for any month are reported and counted as of the week of January 12th.  Obama was still the President during the week of January 12th.


How many new jobs in the last 8 years since Obama was inaugurated?  
How many Americans were employed or unemployed when Obama took office compared to now?
See below!

President Obama handed off to incoming President Trump the strongest economy in terms of jobs since the Clinton years: * 

Friday, February 3, 2017

Obama's Jobs Legacy

January jobs numbers fall into Obama's jobs bucket as the numbers were gathered the week of January 12th.  Obama was still in office the week of January 12th. 



















M
Links:
Record Number of Job Openings Under Obama!



More details and links will follow over the next few days and weeks.

Friday, January 6, 2017

December 2016 Unemployment Rate, Jobs


In March we will start counting the number of jobs created and lost as well as reviewing the general employment situation under President Donald Trump.  But this report and next month's January 2017 report fall into the Obama bucket.

I've seen some reports, including one at CNN, that this is Obama's last full month responsible for the economy and jobs numbers.  While, it is true that December was Obama's last full month responsible for the economy, the jobs numbers are based on activity as of the week which includes the 12th day of the month.  January 12th is a full week before Obama leaves office, and January jobs numbers will fall under Obama, just as January jobs numbers in 2009 fell under Bush.

More about all of this later, but this report, based on data of the week which includes December 12, 2016, shows a mediocre 156,000 net payroll job increase.  However, the November estimate was increased by 26,000.  Unemployment inched up to 4.7% (from 4.6%) but mostly due to 184,000 people entering the civilian labor force in December.