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Friday, April 7, 2017
5 comments:
I appreciate intelligent comments and questions, including those that are at odds with anything posted here. I have elected not to screen comments before they are published; however, any comments that are in any way insulting, caustic, or intentionally inflammatory will be deleted without notice. Spam will also be immediately deleted.
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How are you? I'm surprised not to see an update! Wishing you the best.
ReplyDelete"Now we will see what Trump will do to the number of job openings. Remember that announcements of a few hundred jobs saved or created here or there is really nothing in an economy that has been recording over 5 million job openings a month."
ReplyDeleteSelect any past severe recessions in which many jobs are lost and you will find a sharp gain in jobs during the recovery. So if a president takes office during the very beginning of the recovery, the economy will experience much larger increase in jobs than those who take office 7-8 years after the last recovery has begun.
In terms of job openings, we only have data going back 15 years. The highest monthly averages in terms of job OPENINGS occurred in 2016, with an average of 5.7 million job openings a month. During the recovery of 2003-2007, we got up to an average of 4.5 million job openings a month in 2007.
DeleteIn terms of jobs added after a recession, we don't seem to have those big increases anymore. 2-3% is a big annual increase after a recession, and it takes 3-5 years after the recession to hit that %. For instance, we lost 6.6% of our jobs in 1945, as WWII ended, but we added 11% the following year. We lost .8% of our jobs in 1954, but we bounced back and added 5% in 1955. But we lost .8% in 1991, but recovery was slower; we added 3.4% in 1994. After the recession of 2001-2002, the biggest annual increase was 1.9% in 2005. The recovery after the big recession of 2007-2009 was also slow, we added 2.2% in 2014.
So it takes several years after a recession ends to see reasonable job growth these days.
In fact, we always have had a V-shaped recovery in which many jobs are lost followed by a quick and large increases in jobs during the recovery. However, it did not happen that way under Obama's 2 terms- the economy did not gain back all the jobs which were lost during the recession until about 6 years after he has taken office.
ReplyDeleteCNN today reports that Obama had the lowest labour participation rate for those between 25 to 54 years old or prime working age. Also, on average the number of underemployed workers during Obama presidency is much higher than all presidents since the end of WWII.
http://money.cnn.com/2017/05/03/news/economy/trump-us-full-employment/index.html
You do realize that this was the nastiest recession in 80 years? There are dozens of articles here about labor force participation; you can find and read them if you wish.
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