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Saturday, July 7, 2012

How Many Jobs Have Been Created in 2012 to date? (June update)




How many jobs were created in all of 2012 to date, from December 2011 through June 2012?   902,000

How many private-sector jobs have been created in 2012?   952,000

How many more people working in all of 2012 to date, from December 2011 through June 2012?  
1,625,000 


Have jobs been lost in 2012?  NO.  I'll repeat that:  NO jobs have been lost (net) in 2012. 

How many jobs have been lost in 2012?  NO jobs (net) have been lost in 2012.  

          
  • In seasonally adjusted numbers, 902,000 jobs have been CREATED in 2012.  That's 150,000 jobs ADDED per month in 2012.
  • In "raw" unadjusted numbers, 1,151,000 jobs have been CREATED in 2012.  That's 192,000 jobs ADDED per month in 2012.
  • In terms of total jobs and private-sector jobs, we have ONLY JOB GAINS in 2012.  
How many private-sector jobs were created in all of 2012, from December 2011 through June 2012?  Have private-sector jobs been created or  lost in 2012?

  • In seasonally adjusted numbers, 952,000 private-sector jobs have been CREATED or ADDED in 2012.  That's 159,000 NEW private-sector jobs per month in 2012 as of June 2012.
  • In "raw" unadjusted numbers, 1,548,000 private-sector jobs have been GAINED, CREATED, or ADDED in 2012.  That's 258,000 NEW private-sector jobs per month as of June 2012.

How many government jobs were created in all of 2012, from December 2011 through June 2012?  Have government jobs been created or lost in  2011?
  • In seasonally adjusted numbers, 50,000 government jobs have been  LOST in 2012.  That's  8,000 government jobs LOST per month in 2012.
  • In "raw" unadjusted numbers, 397,000 government jobs have been LOST in 2012.  That's 66,000 government jobs LOST per month in 2012.
How many more people are working in all of 2012, from December 2011 to June 2012?
  • In seasonally adjusted numbers, 1,625,000 MORE people are working now vs. December of 2011.  That's 271,000 NEW workers each month of 2012 to date.
  • In "raw" unadjusted numbers, 2,521,000 MORE people are working now vs. December 2011.  That's 420,000 NEW workers each month of 2012 to date.
 Have jobs or workers been lost in 2012? 
  • In 2012, we have had ONLY NET GAINS in total jobs, private sector jobs and in all measures of workers.  
  • We have had losses in the number of government jobs since December 2011.    
  • To reiterate, in terms of private jobs, we have ONLY JOB GAINS in 2012.  

How many jobs total were created over the past three months from February 2012 to June 2012?
  • In seasonally adjusted numbers, 225,0000 jobs have been CREATED in the last three months.  That's 75,000 MORE jobs a month since March 2012.
  • In "raw" unadjusted numbers,  2,035,000 jobs have been CREATED in the last three months.   That's an INCREASE of 678,000 jobs a month since March 2012.  

How many private-sector jobs were created over the past three months from March 2012 to June 2012?
  • In seasonally adjusted numbers, 274,0000 private jobs have been CREATED in the last three months.  That's 91,000 MORE private jobs a month since March 2012.
  • In "raw" unadjusted numbers,  2,504,000 jobs have been CREATED in the last three months.   That's an increase of 835,000 PRIVATE jobs a month since March 2012.

How many more people are working over the past three months, from March 2012 to June 2012?
  • In seasonally adjusted numbers, 381,000 MORE people are working now vs. December of 2011.  That's 127,000 new workers for each of the past three months, from March to June 2012.
  • In "raw" unadjusted numbers, 1,790,000 MORE people are working now vs. March 2012.  That's 597,000 new workers per each of those 3 months.
How many jobs were created over the past year, from June 2011 to June 2012?
  • In seasonally adjusted numbers, 1,777,000 new jobs were created over the past year.  That's 148,000 MORE jobs per month.
  • In "raw" unadjusted numbers,  1,776,000 jobs have been created in the past year.  That's 148,000 MORE jobs per month.
  • Notice that the seasonally adjusted and the unadjusted "raw" numbers tend to even out over the course of a year.

How many private sector jobs were created over the past year, from June 2011 to June 2012?
  • In seasonally adjusted numbers, 1,946,000 new private jobs were created over the past year.  That's 162,000 MORE jobs per month.
  • In "raw" unadjusted numbers,  1,949,000 private jobs have been created in the past year.  That's 162,000 MORE jobs per month.
  • Notice that the seasonally adjusted and the unadjusted "raw" numbers tend to even out over the course of a year.

How many more people are working over the past year, from June 2011 to June 2012?
  • In seasonally adjusted numbers, 3,030,000 MORE people are working now vs. June of 2011.  That's 253,000 new workers per each month over the past year, since June 2011.
  • In "raw" unadjusted numbers, 3,073,00 MORE people are working now vs. June 2011.  That's 256,000 new workers per each month over the past year, since June 2011.
  • Notice that the seasonally adjusted and the unadjusted "raw" numbers tend to even out over the course of a year.



How many jobs have been created since the "trough" of the recession in late 2009/early 2010 to now, June 2012?  How many more people working since that time?


    How many jobs were created in the last month, June 2012?

    What gets counted as "jobs" and who gets counted as "working"?

    You will see reports here for both the number of "jobs" and the number of people "working".


    There are two parts of the BLS numbers:

    1) The "jobs numbers" refer to the Establishment Report; that is, employing "establishments". This is basically who is included and excluded in the Establishment report:

    "Employment data refer to persons on establishment payrolls who received pay for any part of the pay period that includes the 12th day of the month. Data exclude proprietors, the unincorporated self-employed, unpaid volunteer or family workers, farm workers, and domestic workers. Salaried officers of corporations are included. Government employment covers only civilian employees; military personnel are excluded. Employees of the Central Intelligence Agency, the National Security Agency, the National Imagery and Mapping Agency, and the Defense Intelligence Agency also are excluded." (Found HERE.)
    Therefore, independent contractors who are paid as 1099 employees would NOT be included in those numbers, neither would people starting their own small businesses, whether incorporated self-employed or non-incorporated self-employed. Farmers would also NOT be considered in the monthly "jobs" reports.

    2)  
    However, the Current Population Survey counts people from their own perspective; in other words, it doesn't talk to employers, it talks to people. It asks people if they are working for money in any given month. This is the study from which we get the unemployment rate and the number of people "working". Independent contractors are included in that count. 

    The count of people who are employed is always higher by some 9,000,000 people as it includes farmers and people who are self-employed along with a few other groups of workers.  There were about 9,572,000 unincorporated self-employed workers in June 2012, so this is where independent contractors would be reported.  There were also about 5,206,000 incorporated self-employed workers in June 2012.
    (Note:  All of my employment number reports are based on monthly reports and data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  Monthly numbers reports are based on the monthly Employment Situation Report.  The Employment Situation report includes month over month and year over year jobs numbers.  My analysis is taken from the monthly BLS data copied to an Excel spreadsheet every month.  I calculate detailed percentage increases/decreases, 3 month numbers, 2011 to date numbers, and I compare jobs numbers to those at the time of Obama's inauguration and at the "trough" of the recession.)

    11 comments:

    1. You keep writing in bold type that NO jobs have been lost (net) this year. Technically true. BUT columnist Charles Krauthammer has said that the US needs 250,000 new jobs each month just to keep up wih population growth. So the current poor job creation record (under that 250K number March-June)in reality does put the US at a loss.

      Unemployment has changed less than 1% since January. Food prices have been rising. The President continues to say we are moving in "the right direction". My family's wages have remained stagnant; utility, food and fuel costs have risen - I choose to go back to the days of policies the President says did not work.

      www.highdesertreferendum.wordpress.com

      ReplyDelete
    2. Just a quick comment.

      The BLS provides a count of the people in the civilian non-institutional population. The "civilian non-institutional population" includes people 16 years of age and older who are not in the military and not in some kind of institution, like a nursing home or a prison.

      You can imagine that many people in this group do not need or want jobs... or they only want a part-time job. Retired people usually don't want jobs, people with new babies usually don't want jobs, kids in high school may want a part-time job, but many don't even want a part-time job.

      Now, in the past ten years, there are about 26,000,000 more people in this "civilian non-institutional population". That comes out to an increase of about 215,000 a month.

      Remember that that 215,000 includes people who are in high school, college, people with new babies, people tending children, people who are disabled, people who are retired.

      So... why in the world would we need 250,000 new jobs a month?
      Especially when the fastest growing age group are people who are 55 and over.. and only about 40% of the people in that age group work?

      (Yep.. despite the Republican's best efforts to keep people working until they drop, people are still now able to retire. Only about 40% of people 55+ are either working or want to work. That number is unfortunately going up.. and it will go wayyy up if the Republicans get any more control. Do you remember reading about working and life conditions back in the 19th and early 20th centuries? You must.. if you support the Republicans.

      Shame on you for caring so little for your children's futures that you think it is peachy keen for them to work until they are 70 with no social safety net.

      ReplyDelete
    3. Really, I have heard thousands of job losses just here in CA bay area, are you talking about mars?
      This is not factual information this is BS. The jobs created are for people within an established corporate environment and the jobs yes, are created but for overseas. We are not in any better shape than we were 2 years ago. I am not sure where you people are getting your information but ask your neighbor.
      Where are these jobs and what are they?

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    4. I have techie friends that where ib=n the triple figure that just recently got laid off 3,000 from one co. 20,000from another! BS. someone is a Big Bull shyster!

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    5. EVERY MONTH about 4,300,000 people are hired. EVERY MONTH about 2,100,000 people quit. EVERY MONTH about 1,900,000 people are laid off.

      If the number of people who are hired exceeds the number of people who quit or are laid off, the jobs numbers go up. If the number of people who are laid off or quit exceeds the number of people who are hired, the jobs numbers go down.

      NET vs. GROSS.

      So your friends may work for companies that are laying off thousands of people. But somewhere else, thousands are being hired.

      Now:

      1. What is the name of the company that laid off 20,000? Did they lay off 20,000 employees in the U.S.?

      2. If these numbers are b.s., why are they still not that great? I mean if the Dems were really intent on B.S.ing the population, why wouldn't the unemployment rate be somewhere in the 7's by now.. with 150,000 new jobs each month?

      Just the fact that the numbers aren't increasing as fast as any of us would want them to (in large part, due to Republican obstruction) should show that there is no falsifying or manipulation of the numbers.

      3. If there is falsification of records, how is that happening? Over time the BLS numbers are in line with those of private firms such as ADP and Gallup. Are all of them in kahouts together to lie to the American public?

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    6. The data all comes from the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports and databases which are free and online easily available to the public.

      And everybody that I know is doing better than they were doing 2-3 years ago. Sorry. All of the kids I know that graduated from college last year or two years ago now have jobs, and they all have professional jobs. My niece graduated from law school last year. All of her fellow graduates that she has kept up with now have jobs in a field related to law.

      I do know older people who have recently been laid off and they are the people who are struggling to find work. Now most of them have adequate savings or other sources of income. I know others who started mini-businesses two years ago who are now starting to rake in some bucks.

      Some states are worse than others, and California is still struggling. California still has one of the highest unemployment rates, but even their UR is coming down.

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    7. Uh, well come to New Jersey & talk to the people. The people here in Southern New Jersey are no longer counted. No longer collecting unemployment & not eligable to collect welfare. We are finding ways to make it, I guess. Every week we hold our breath to see if we can keep things going. My husband has not worked in 4 years. He is a Union Carpenter. When he does work it is for a few days or a week if we are lucky. That puts us out of reach for assistance, along with side jobs he does for friends. We are 2 months behind on our Mortgage and every thing else. We started cutting back all our bills 3 years ago, thank God. Can't get State insurance either. I am a substitute teacher. I work about 100 days of the 180 public school days. There are no other jobs for a 50 something certified teacher.

      ReplyDelete
      Replies
      1. Just heard of 4 new businesses closing, min. wage jobs about 20 employees each

        Delete
      2. I'm sure I replied to this, but Blogger changed a few things and perhaps my reply to you was somehow "misplaced".

        New Jersey is one of the states that is slow in recovering. Please remember why we are in this big, big hole.. Income inequality has been increasing for decades now, and the unemployment rate has been elevated (above that of the 1990's) since 2000. We never completely recovered from the early 2000 recession, which was a much milder recession than the one that started in 2007, and that recovery was based largely on the housing bubble.

        Income inequality has ramped up, meaning the rich guys get more and more and the rest of us fight for scraps. The Repubs have also been great at pitting one group of middle/working class people against another.

        Add to that discrimination against older people and things are glum for many.

        New Jersey is about 38th in job growth since early 2010, when we bottomed out. Over the past year, when the number of people working has increased by at least 1% in most states, New Jersey has experienced anemic growth.. Only 300 more people say they are working in August 2012 vs. August 2011, even though employers report 51,000 more jobs in August 2012 vs. August 2011.

        Construction and public education, unfortunately, are still weak areas, and they appear to be a bit weaker in New Jersey than in other states.

        Since January 2009, the number of people in "local education" (mostly teachers), has decreased 18% throughout the country but it has decreased a bit more, 19.4% in New Jersey. Remember that Obama proposed a bill LAST YEAR to get teachers and other local civil servants back to work, but the Republicans in Congress have refused to bring it to a vote.

        Also, whereas construction in the country as a whole has bottomed out and we now have about 60,000 people more working in construction than we had a year ago when construction started to turn around, the construction sector continues to lose jobs in New Jersey.

        So.. It's not great to be in New Jersey right now, particularly in construction or education. Why is New Jersey having a harder time recovering than most other states? Not sure.. perhaps having a Republican governor isn't helping.

        Which is why the issues of a social safety net, which the Repubs want to cut to the bone or even eliminate, are so important. It's unclear to me why anyone would vote against their best interests by voting for Republicans.

        Public education will continue to be defunded under the Repubs, and the Repubs have been clear about voucherizing Medicare, which would be disastrous to people younger than 55, and we've all now heard how little respect Romney has for people who are struggling in any way, particularly if they make too little to pay federal income taxes.

        The Repubs claim that Romney will add 12 million jobs in the next four years. No other president has ever added that many jobs in one term; why in the world would anybody think that Romney, who wasn't much of a "job creator" in Massachusetts, would suddenly be able to add millions of jobs, good decent-paying jobs?

        Delete
    8. I stopped reading after the first two "stats.". Can someone explain how the total number of jobs created in 2012 can be less than the total number of private sector jobs created? Aren't private sector jobs included in the total number of jobs created? I'll wait for the answer to see if I should even proceed with the rest of he data.

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      Replies
      1. First of all, the article above is the June update. We now have August numbers, and I have added the link to those numbers right at the beginning of the article.

        There are two major sectors that create the total jobs numbers reported by employers: Private employers and public (government) employers. Government jobs include ALL levels of government, federal, state, and local (teachers), but the military is NOT included in these numbers.

        Private jobs + government jobs = Total jobs

        So one of these components can go up while the other component goes down. That would mean that the total increase is not as great as the increase of either part. That's what has happened to government jobs numbers over the past 2-3 years.

        This post is about job growth during 2012.

        Here's how these two sectors looked at the end of 2011:

        Private jobs (110,193,000) + govt jobs (21,993,000) = total (132,186,000)

        And now:

        Private jobs (111,400,000) + govt jobs (21,900,000)= total (133,300,000)

        So, as of August 2012, we have 1,114,0000 more jobs in total in 2012, and 1,207,000 more private sector jobs. The difference between the two numbers is 93,000, the number of government jobs that have been lost in 2012.

        Delete

    I appreciate intelligent comments and questions, including those that are at odds with anything posted here. I have elected not to screen comments before they are published; however, any comments that are in any way insulting, caustic, or intentionally inflammatory will be deleted without notice. Spam will also be immediately deleted.