JAN # just released Fri, Feb 5th. +151,000, Unemp rate down to 4.9%. JANUARY details here... Jobs since Obama took office?... Unemp. rate under Obama?

Friday, February 5, 2016

January 2016 Unemployment Rate, Jobs

The January Jobs Reports were released this morning, Friday, February 5. The economy added 151,000 new jobs, a smaller number than expected,  while the unemployment rate declined slightly to 4.9%.  

Though the number of jobs added was smaller than expected and not as large as prior months, we have continued the streak of months of consecutive growth in the number of jobs, both in the total number of jobs and in the number of private jobs.  We now have
71 months of consecutive private sector job growth and 64 months of consecutive total jobs growth.  


Remember that jobs numbers are seasonally adjusted, so the smaller number of jobs in January is
NOT due to the release of temporary part-time Christmas workers.


From the BLS Employment Situation report: 

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for November was revised from +252,000 to +280,000, and the change for December was revised from +292,000 to +262,000. With these revisions, employment gains in November and December combined were 2,000 lower than previously reported. Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 231,000 per month. Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses since the last published estimates and the recalculation of seasonal factors. The annual benchmark process also contributed to these revisions. 


January Highlights:
  • 151,000 total new payroll jobs.
  • 158,000 new private sector jobs.
  • 7,000 decrease in the number of government jobs.
  • These numbers are lower than the 195,000 to 200,000 new jobs estimated by the various "pundits". 
  • The unemployment rate declined slightly to 4.9% as the number of unemployed decreased slightly by 113,000 and as the number of people employed increased by 615,000.  The number of people in the labor force (people working and people looking for work) increased by 502,000. 
  • The number of people not in the labor force (people 16 years of age and older who are in school, retired, e home with children, etc.) decreased slightly by 41,000 to 94,062,000 due to the large number of people entering the labor force.   
  • The labor force participation rate increased slightly to 62.7% due to the large number of people entering or re-entering the labor force.  (The labor force participation rate has been between  62.4%  and 62.7% for the past seven months.)  
  • Year over year, we have about 1,310,000 MORE people in the labor force DESPITE large numbers of Baby Boomers retiring.  Remember that there is NO ideal labor force participation rate and most of the overall decrease in the labor force participation rate is due to these large numbers of retiring Baby Boomers.
  • Alternate unemployment rate stayed the same at 9.9%
  • The number of people working full-time increased by a large 538,000 last month.
  • The number of people working part-time increased by about 5,000 last month. 
  • The number of people working part-time INVOLUNTARILY DECREASED by 34,000 and the number of people working part-time VOLUNTARILY INCREASED by 68,000.  
  • There are 2.5 million MORE people working full-time than there were a year ago, and 120,000 FEWER people working part-time than a year ago.
  • As mentioned above, the BLS increased the November jobs numbers from +252,000 to +280,000 but decreased the October numbers from +292,000 to +262,000.  Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged a very healthy 231,000 per month.
Since Obama took office (January 2009):
  • 9.2 million MORE jobs in total
  • 9.8 million MORE private sector jobs
  • 8.4 million MORE people working
  • 7.3 million MORE people working full-time
  • 987,000 MORE people working part-time
  • 2.1 million FEWER people working part-time INVOLUNTARILY  


Since the "trough" of the recession in late 2009/early 2010:
  • 13.6 million MORE jobs in total
  • 14   million MORE private sector jobs
  • 12.5 million MORE people working
  • 12.6 million MORE people working full-time.
  • 37,000 MORE people working part-time.
  • 3.4 million FEWER people working part-time INVOLUNTARILY.   



January 2016 reports: (As usual, notation on the links will be changed to "UPDATED for January" when the updated reports become available later today or over the weekend.  Not all reports are updated every month.) 

More highlights and reports will continue to be posted here throughout the day and over the weekend.  Please check back!

Friday, January 8, 2016

December 2015 Unemployment Rate, Jobs



Wow!


The December Jobs Reports were released this morning, Friday, January 8. The economy added 292,000 new jobs, a much higher number than expected,  while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.0%.
Remember that jobs numbers are seasonally adjusted, so the big jump in numbers of jobs is NOT due to temporary part-time Christmas jobs.
A 2015 Highlight:

  • Over 2,000,000 jobs have been added each year for the past five years, from 2011 to 2015, inclusive.  The only other period of five years or more of consecutive additions of 2,000,000 or more jobs was during the Clinton years from 1993 to 1999 inclusive.

From the BLS Employment Situation report:
"The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for October was revised from +298,000 to +307,000, and the change for November was revised from +211,000 to +252,000. With these revisions, employment gains in October and November combined were 50,000 higher than previously reported. Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 284,000 per month." 


December Highlights:
  • 292,000 total new payroll jobs.
  • 275,000 new private sector jobs.
  • 17,000 increase in the number of government jobs.
  • These numbers are much higher than the 200,000 to 205,000 new jobs estimated by the various "pundits". 
  • The unemployment rate stayed exactly the same at 5.0% as the number of unemployed decreased slightly by 20,000 and as the number of people employed increased by 485,000.  The number of people in the labor force (people working and people looking for work) increased by 466,000. 
  • The number of people not in the labor force (people 16 years of age and older who are in school, retired, e home with children, etc.) decreased by 277,000 slightly to 94,103,000 due to the large number of people entering the labor force.  
  • Alternate unemployment rate stayed the same at 9.9% to 9.9%.  
  • The labor force participation rate increased slightly to 62.6% due to the large number of people entering or re-entering the labor force.  (The labor force participation rate has been between  62.4%  and 62.6% for the past six months.)  
  • Year over year, we have about 1,700,000 MORE people in the labor force DESPITE large numbers of Baby Boomers retiring.  Remember that there is NO ideal labor force participation rate and most of the overall decrease in the labor force participation rate is due to these large numbers of retiring Baby Boomers.
  • The number of people working full-time increased by a HHHUGE 504,000 last month.
  • The number of people working part-time increased by about 27,000 last month. 
  • The number of people working part-time INVOLUNTARILY DECREASED by 63,000 and the number of people working part-time VOLUNTARILY INCREASED by 72,000.  
  • There are 2.6 million MORE people working full-time than there were a year ago, and 86,000 FEWER people working part-time than a year ago.
  • As mentioned above, the BLS increased both the October and November numbers.  October numbers were increased slightly by 9,000 from +198,000 to +207,000, and the November numbers were increased by 41,000 from +211,000 to +252,000.  Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged a very healthy 284,000 per month.

December 2015 reports: (As usual, notation on the links will be changed to "UPDATED for December" when the updated reports become available later today or over the weekend.  Not all reports are updated every month.) 

More highlights and reports will continue to be posted here throughout the day and over the weekend.  Please check back!

Friday, December 4, 2015

What was the unemployment rate when Obama took office and Bush left office? (Updated for November 2015)

What was the unemployment rate when Bush left office and Obama was inaugurated and took office? What was the unemployment rate when Obama came into office?                                   7.8% 

What was the unemployment rate after Obama's first full month in office (February 2009)?  
                                              8.3%

What was the unemployment rate at peak?  

                                                                            10.0%


What is the unemployment rate now (November 2015)?    
                                                                                                            5.0%  


All Latest Jobs and Unemployment Reports HERE

How many people were looking for work when Obama was inaugurated; how many were working?  And how many people are looking for work and how many are employed now?

Please read below the graph.


The following chart shows the unemployment rate in three month intervals plus the last three months:





Why are there two lines, one for "Seas Adjusted" and one for "Unadjusted" in the chart above?  This is explained at the bottom of the article.
  • What Caused the Rise in Unemployment When Obama Took Office?  Obama caused the unemployment rate to rise?  (Continue reading; the answer  is below the fold.)
  •  What Was the Unemployment Rate When Bush Took Office?  How high did it rise?  (The answer is also below the fold.)  

How Many Jobs Has Obama Created or Lost? (November 2015 update)

How many NET jobs created or lost under Obama* as of November 2015? How many private sector jobs have been lost or added during Obama's presidency?


How many new jobs in the last 7 years since Obama was inaugurated?  How many Americans were working or employed when Obama took office... compared to now?


Continue below.....


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November 2015 numbers were released Friday, Dec. 6.  Reports listed HERE.

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Private sector job growth has been stable and consistent since early 2010 with 69 months of consecutive private sector job growth.







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November 2015 Unemployment Rate, Jobs

The November Jobs Reports were released this morning, Friday, December 4. The numbers are about what was expected; decent jobs numbers but not exceptional. They almost surely mean that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its next meeting in December.







November Highlights:
  • 211,000 total new payroll jobs; 197,000 new private sector jobs; 14,000 increase in the number of government jobs.  These numbers are very close to the 200,000 jobs that the pundits and prognosticators predicted.  
  • If there is a concern in this report, it is the increase in the number of people working part-time because they can't find full-time work.  However, this number is volatile and may well decline next month, as it has generally for the past 4-5 years.  Full-time/part-time breakdown will be available HERE later today.  
  • The BLS increased both the September and October estimates.  September numbers were increased slightly by 8,000 from +137,000 to +145,000, and the October estimate was increased by 27,000 from +271,000 to +298,000.   From the BLS:  "With these revisions, employment gains in September and October combined were 35,000 more than previously reported. Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 218,000 per month."
  • The unemployment rate stayed exactly the same at 5.0% as the number of unemployed increased slightly by 29,000 and as the number of people employed increased by 244,000
  • The number of people not in the labor force (people 16 years of age and older who are in school, retired, e home with children, etc.) decreased slightly to 94,446,000.  
  • Alternate unemployment rate increased slightly from 9.8% to 9.9%.  That decline primarily reflected an increase of about 300,000 in the number of people who were working part-time "involuntarily" because they couldn't find full-time jobs. (That number has declined by 800,000 over the past year and about 1,629,000 over the past two years.) 
  • As mentioned above, the labor force participation rate increased slightly to 62.5%.  The labor force participation rate has been between  62.4%  and 62.6% for the past five months.  Year over year, we have about 900,000 MORE people in the labor force DESPITE large numbers of Baby Boomers retiring.  Remember that there is NO ideal labor force participation rate and most of the ongoing decrease in the labor force participation rate is due to these large numbers of retiring Baby Boomers.
  • The overall number of people employed increased by  244,000.  
  • The number of people working full-time increased by 3,000 last month; the number of people working part-time increased by about 137,000 last month. The number of people working part-time INVOLUNTARILY increased by 319,000 and the number of people working part-time VOLUNTARILY decreased by 12,000.  There are 2.5 million MORE people working full-time than there were a year ago, and 455,000 FEWER people working part-time than a year ago.
MORE TO COME.....

November 2015 reports: (As usual, notation on the links will be changed to "UPDATED for November" when the updated reports become available.  Not all reports are updated every month.) 

More highlights and reports will continue to be posted here throughout the day and over the weekend.  Please check back!

Friday, November 6, 2015

What Was the Unemployment rate when Obama took office and Bush left office? (Updated for October 2015)

This report has been updated for November 2015 HERE


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All November 2015 reports and details HERE.
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This report is outdated.  For current reports, please click on one of the links above. 


What was the unemployment rate when Bush left office and Obama was inaugurated and took office? What was the unemployment rate when Obama came into office?
                                   7.8% 

What was the unemployment rate after obama's first full month in office (February 2009)?  
                                              8.3%

What was the unemployment rate at peak?  

                                                                            10.0%


What is the unemployment rate now (October 2015)?    
                                                                                                            5.0%  


All Latest Jobs and Unemployment Reports HERE

How many people were looking for work when Obama was inaugurated; how many were working?  And how many people are looking for work and how many are employed now?

Please read below the graph.


The following chart shows the unemployment rate in three month intervals plus the last three months:






Why are there two lines, one for "Seas Adjusted" and one for "Unadjusted" in the chart above?  This is explained at the bottom of the article.
  • What Caused the Rise in Unemployment When Obama Took Office?  Obama caused the unemployment rate to rise?  (Continue reading; the answer  is below the fold.)
  •  What Was the Unemployment Rate When Bush Took Office?  How high did it rise?  (The answer is also below the fold.)  

How Many Jobs Has Obama Created or Lost? (October 2015 update)

This report has been updated HERE.
The following report is outdated.

How many NET jobs created or lost under Obama* as of October 2015? 
How many private sector jobs have been lost or added during Obama's presidency?


How many new jobs in the last 6 1/2 years since Obama was inaugurated?  How many Americans were working or employed when Obama took office... compared to now?


Continue below.....


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November 2015 numbers were released Fri., Dec. 6.  Reports listed HERE.

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