JUNE BLS: +288,000 jobs, Unemployment rate declines to 6.1%. Details HERE Jobs since Obama took office? HERE Unemp. rate under Obama? HERE

Thursday, July 3, 2014

Jobs Lost Gained Past Year

June 2014 jobs numbers and unemployment reports were released Thursday morning, Thursday, July 3rd.  Graphs, details, and analysis will be published Thursday and over the weekend.

 Please check back for latest numbers and charts!

Jobs Created Lost June 2014




In June 2014:
  • 288,000 TOTAL payroll jobs were ADDED in seasonally adjusted numbers.
  • 262,000 PRIVATE payroll sector jobs were ADDED in seasonally adjusted numbers.
  • 26,000 GOVERNMENT (federal, state, and local) jobs were added in June. 
  • 407,000 MORE people employed.
  • 523,000 FEWER people employed full-time.
  • 799,000 MORE people employed part-time.
  • 81,000 MORE people in the civilian labor force (people either working or looking for work).
  • 325,000 FEWER people unemployed.
  • Unemployment rate drops significantly to 6.1% (from 6.3%) primarily due to the many fewer unemployed people and many MORE employed people in June.

June 2014 jobs numbers and unemployment reports were released Thursday morning, Thursday, July 3rd.  Graphs, details, and analysis will be published Thursday and over the weekend.
 Please check back for latest numbers and charts!

Private Govt Jobs Gained Lost Obama


June 2014 jobs numbers and unemployment reports were released Thursday morning, Thursday, July 3rd.  Graphs, details, and analysis will be published Thursday and over the weekend.

 Please check back for latest numbers and charts!

How Many Jobs Has Obama Created or Lost? (Updated for June 2014)


How many NET jobs created or lost under Obama as of June 2014?  How many private sector jobs have been lost or added during Obama's presidency?

How many new jobs in the last 5 years since Obama was inaugurated?  
How many Americans were working or employed when Obama took office... compared to now?


Numbers for June with latest revisions:

Since the "trough" of the recession in late 2009/early 2010 in seasonally adjusted numbers:
  • 9.1 million MORE jobs in total
  • 9.7 million MORE private sector jobs
  • 8.2 million MORE people working
How many workers were full-time or part-time at the "trough" of the recession in late 2009/early 2010 compared to now?

  • 7.6 million MORE people working full-time.
  • 539,000 MORE people working part-time.  
  • (Yes, despite what you may have heard, from the depth of the recession until now, we have many more additional people working full-time vs. part-time jobs. When a recession hits, companies generally cut back on full-time workers first.  When companies start hiring again, the number of full-time workers increases.)

Since Bush left office & Obama took office (January 2009) in seasonally adjusted numbers:
  • 4.8 million MORE jobs in total
  • 5.5 million MORE private sector jobs
  • 4.1 million MORE people working

How many workers were full-time or part-time when Obama was inaugurated compared to now?

  • 2.4 million MORE people working full-time
  • 1.6 million MORE people working part-time  









Have any private jobs been lost (net) over the past 
52 months since February 2010?

NO!

  • 52 months of consecutive private-sector job growth.

Have any jobs been lost (net) over the past 45 months since September 2010?


NO!

  • 45 months of consecutive overall job growth.
Are more people unemployed now than when Obama took office in January 2009?  

NO!
  • Despite 1,484,000 MORE people in the labor force (either working or actively looking for work) now vs. January 2009, there are 2,584,000 FEWER people unemployed now than in January 2009. 





What's the difference between "net" and "gross" jobs gained and lost?


Let's get something straight:  Jobs are lost every week and every month. People are fired, people are laid off, businesses or locations are closed and everybody is let go. 
 

Also people quit every week.  You yourself, dear reader,  may have quit a job at some point in time. 


But people are also HIRED every week and every month.  New businesses open, businesses expand, businesses replace people who have left or been fired.  Every week.  You yourself, dear reader, may have been hired for a job at some point in time.This happens in good times and bad. 

Yes, even in bad times, people are getting hired.  Even in good times, people are let go.  

Now:  The monthly jobs reportupon which this article is based, presents estimates based on surveys as to how many jobs are gained or lost in a given month.  Those numbers are based on the number of new jobs (people getting hired, businesses opening) MINUS the number of jobs that have been cut (people getting fired, people quitting, businesses closing or cutting back).

The monthly jobs report therefore reports NET job growth or loss.  


For 44 months in this country, we have had MORE jobs being added than we have had jobs being cut.  For 51 months in the private sector (not counting federal workers, state or local workers such as teachers, firemen, cops, or people who staff the DMV, only counting people who work for private businesses), we have had MORE jobs added than we have had jobs being cut.


To reiterate:  How many jobs have been created in the last 5 years versus how many jobs have been lost?
All numbers provided on monthly jobs reports, which is what the series on jobs created/lost under Obama is based, are NET jobs numbers.  In other words, they reflect gains after all job losses are subtracted, or they reflect job losses after all gains are added. 
For the past 52 months (as of June 2014), we have had NET gains in private jobs numbers every month.  In other words, in every month since February 2010, more private jobs have been created than have been lost.  In every month since September 2010, more jobs in total have been created than have been lost.


Fact check and important information on these jobs numbers...

The above jobs numbers are from the BLS jobs report of June 2014, which was released in June 2014.  The surveys used to gather these numbers in May are taken as of the week which includes the 12th day of the month, in this case, May 12, 2014. 



What Was the Unemployment Rate When Obama Took Office (Compared to Now)? June 2014 update


What was the unemployment rate when Bush left office and Obama was inaugurated? 7.8%


What was the unemployment rate after Obama's first full month in office (February 2009)?  8.3%

What was the unemployment rate at peak?  10.0%


What is today's (June 2014's) unemployment rate?   6.1%  


All Latest Jobs and Unemployment Reports HERE

How many people were looking for work when Obama was inaugurated; how many were working?  And how many people are looking for work and how many are employed now?

Read below the graph.


The following chart shows the unemployment rate in three month intervals plus the last three months:

  

Why are there two lines, one for "Seas Adjusted" and one for "Unadjusted"?

The Bureau of Labor Statistics uses seasonal adjustments to adjust for the volatility in the labor market from one month to the next.  The relatively even declining red line above shows the unemployment rate based on seasonally adjusted numbers.  The jagged green line shows the unemployment rate based on "real", "raw" numbers; the unadjusted rate.  Notice that the green line goes up in January (after holiday layoffs) and July (school-related layoffs), and it goes down in October and April, which are strong months for workers.  (Employees are all back to school in October, and employers are staffing up for the holidays.  Schools are also full in April and employers are starting to staff up for summer, construction, vacation venues, etc.)  The red line helps us to compare the unemployment rate over a period of months; the green line, however, reflects "reality":  Your friends, neighbors, and family members actually working or not working.  

Wednesday, July 2, 2014

June 2014 Unemployment Rate Jobs

June 2014 Jobs Numbers and Unemployment Rate were released this morning, Thursday, July 3, 2014.  Details and analysis will be presented throughout the day.
  • A very positive report, with a significant addition of jobs, The BLS reports that 288,000 payroll jobs were added in June, higher than the projected range of new jobs.
  • May jobs numbers were revised upwards by 7,000 and April numbers were revised upwards  by 22,000.  Job growth has averaged 208,000/month over the past 12 months.  
  • Private jobs increased by 262,000.  Construction jobs increased by 6,000; manufacturing jobs increased by 16,000.   Private service-producing jobs increased by 236,000.  Unfortunately, the biggest gains continue to be in lower-paying and temporary areas, such as Retail, Temporary Help Services, and Food Services and Drinking Places.
  • Government jobs increased by 26,000, with 18,000 of those additions in the "Local Government/Education" sector.   This is a welcome turn around compared to the past few years in this sector.
  • The unemployment rate dropped significantly to 6.1%  This rate drop was due to people finding work.  The number of people unemployed declined by 325,000; the number of people employed increased by 407,000; the number of people in the civilian labor force increased by 81,000.  (The unemployment rate comes from a different source than the number of jobs which is why the unemployment rate can increase even if the number of jobs increases.  Over time, these two numbers closely parallel each other.  The unemployment rate, however, is much more volatile than the jobs numbers.  Also, the unemployment rate is not directly related to the number of people getting unemployment benefits.  This is one of the biggest employment myths out there. MORE HERE.)   
  • The alternate unemployment rate (which includes part time workers who want full time jobs, discouraged workers, and marginally attached workers) DECREASED to 12.1%, a decrease of .1%, one-tenth of a percent. One year ago the alternate unemployment rate was 14.2%.   Most alternate unemployment measures dropped significantly in June; however, the number of involuntary part-time workers increased by 275,000, however, the biggest increase since March 2014.  
  • The number of people employed, including agricultural and self-employed, decreased 407,000 in seasonally adjusted numbers in June, but, in unadjusted "raw" numbers, it increased by 706,000 in June.  Full-time workers decreased by 523,000 in June, while part-timer workers increased 799,000.  This is the first decrease in the number of full-time workers and the first increase in the number of part-time workers in several months.  
  • The number of discouraged workers declined slightly over the past month and significantly over the past year.  (This number is not seasonally adjusted.)There were 676,000 discouraged workers in June, a decrease of 351,000 from a year earlier and a decrease of 21,000 from May.
  •  Since the "trough" of the recession in late 2009/early 2010 in seasonally adjusted numbers:
    • 9.1 million MORE jobs in total
    • 9.7 million MORE private sector jobs
    • 8.2 million MORE people working
    Since Bush left office & Obama took office (January 2009) in seasonally adjusted numbers:
    • 4.8 million MORE jobs in total
    • 5.5 million MORE private sector jobs
    • 4.1 million MORE people working


June 2014 reports to be published: (Notation on the links will be changed to "June" or "Updated for June" when the updated reports become available.) 


The following June Jobs Projections were posted earlier in the week:
  • ADP, the private payroll service, estimated a whopping 281,000 new private sector jobs in June.

Thursday, June 12, 2014

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase Slightly


Initial unemployment (jobless) claims increased slightly for the week ending June 7, marking the second week in a row of increases in the number of unemployment claims.  However, the overall number of UI claims continues to remain well under the number of claims of the past three years, as shown by the graph.


The Department of Labor announced Thursday morning that 317,000 first time claims were filed, an increase of 4,000 claims over the number filed the week before.  The 4 week moving average, which smooths out some of the normal weekly fluctuations, increased by 4,750 claims to 
315,250. 

We continue to experience the lowest numbers of weekly initial claims since Spring/Summer of 2007, before the recession.

As usual it should be noted that weekly unemployment claims are volatile and trends should only be considered over a period of weeks.  Also, the initial unemployment claims reported on this graph have NOTHING TO DO with the expiration of extended unemployment benefits at the end of 2013.  These are INITIAL claims.