FEB Fri, Mar 10:+235,000 jobs. Unemployment down slightly to 4.7%...FEB details coming.. Jobs since Trump took office?... Unemp. rate under Obama? (not yet updated)

Friday, March 10, 2017

How Many Jobs Has Trump Created or Lost? (February 2017 update)

How many NET jobs created or lost under Trump as of February 2017, during the Trump Presidency to date? How many private sector jobs have been lost or added during Trump's presidency? 

This is the FIRST month of jobs attributed to Trump's Presidency.  Job numbers for any month are reported and counted as of the week of 12th.  Obama was still the President during the week of January 12th, which is why numbers for January 2017 fall in the Obama bucket.  Now, starting with February 2017, we get to see what effect Trump's policies will or won't have on jobs.  

Let's remember that jobs tend to trend, and one or two months do not make a trend.  (Some people believe that we shouldn't count an incoming President's jobs numbers until the beginning of his first fiscal year in office, meaning starting in October, as the federal fiscal year goes from October 1st to September 30th.)  But starting with February will certainly give us a good enough trend as we move through the spring and summer.


    As we move into the Trump years, let's remember that-- 
  •                                    

  • President Obama handed off to President Trump the strongest economy in terms of jobs since the Clinton years: * 

  • 1.  Record numbers of job openings.
  • 2.  A record in consecutive months of increase in the number of private sector jobs (83 months).
  • 3. Record in consecutive months of overall job growth.  (76 months).  
  • 4. Lowest number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits since 1971.  
  • 5.    A reduction in income inequality starting in 2014.
  • 6.  An increase in inflation-adjusted weekly and hourly wages for "regular" workers.  
  • 7.  A record-increase in inflation-adjusted household income starting in 2015.  
  • 8.  An 3% INCREASE in manufacturing jobs in Obama's second term after a 27% DECREASE in manufacturing jobs under Bush II.  This was the largest one term increase in manufacturing jobs since Carter.
  • 9.  A 19% increase in construction jobs in Obama's second term.  This was the largest one term increase in construction jobs since the Clinton years.
      

    Don't mess this up, President  Trump!  WE ARE WATCHING YOU!   

    *For those who don't believe these claims, I will post links and sources for all of these in the next few days.  

*******************************************************************

February 2017 numbers were released Friday morning, March 10th.  All FEBRUARY reports and info will be listed  HERE.
******************************************************************






e

Continue below...

Friday, February 3, 2017

Obama's Jobs Legacy


January jobs numbers fall into Obama's jobs bucket as the numbers were gathered the week of January 12th.  Obama was still in office the week of January 12th. 




Details and links will follow over the next few days.

Friday, January 6, 2017

December 2016 Unemployment Rate, Jobs


In March we will start counting the number of jobs created and lost as well as reviewing the general employment situation under President Donald Trump.  But this report and next month's January 2017 report fall into the Obama bucket.

I've seen some reports, including one at CNN, that this is Obama's last full month responsible for the economy and jobs numbers.  While, it is true that December was Obama's last full month responsible for the economy, the jobs numbers are based on activity as of the week which includes the 12th day of the month.  January 12th is a full week before Obama leaves office, and January jobs numbers will fall under Obama, just as January jobs numbers in 2009 fell under Bush.

More about all of this later, but this report, based on data of the week which includes December 12, 2016, shows a mediocre 156,000 net payroll job increase.  However, the November estimate was increased by 26,000.  Unemployment inched up to 4.7% (from 4.6%) but mostly due to 184,000 people entering the civilian labor force in December. 

Saturday, December 10, 2016

Russian Oil, Russian Hacking, and Donald Trump

Let's put this together and make sure everybody knows and understands this:

The head of Exxon-Mobil, Tillerson, the man that Trump has reportedly pegged to be Secretary of State, was very much involved with and in favor of an Exxon-Russia-oil (Roseneft) deal. The Obama administration had nixed this deal due to Russia's invasion of the Crimea. The US under Obama, Kerry, and Clinton has taken a somewhat hard line by using sanctions against Russia and its expansionist desires. Now Putin will manage to fast-track that oil deal after all (and probably get rid of the sanctions) by backing Trump. Question: Is there a smoking gun? Is there any evidence of back door dealings between Trump people and the Russians either about the hacking or about this deal and the Exxon guy? We all heard Trump calling on hackers to look into Hillary Clinton, and we know something about Paul Manafort, but that's not the same as a smoking gun. If there was such a smoking gun, would the Repubs even investigate it?



More on all of this later, including relevant links...

Monday, December 5, 2016

How Many jobs has Obama Created or Lost? (November 2016 update)

How many NET jobs created or lost under Obama* as of November 2016? How many private sector jobs have been lost or added during Obama's presidency?
  • SEE BELOW!

How many new jobs in the last 8 years since Obama was inaugurated?  How many Americans were working or employed when Obama took office... compared to now?
  • SEE BELOW!
Okay, President-Elect Trump, President Obama is handing off to you the strongest economy in terms of job-growth since the Clinton years. We have really just started a roll: * 

  • 1.  Record numbers of job openings.
  • 2.  A record in consecutive months of increase in the number of jobs (now 74 months).  
  • 3. Lowest number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits since 1971.  
  • 4.    A reduction in income inequality starting in 2014.
  • 5.  An increase in inflation-adjusted weekly and hourly wages for "regular" workers.  
  • 6.  A record-increase in inflation-adjusted household income.  
  • 7.  An INCREASE in manufacturing jobs after a 27% DECREASE in manufacturing jobs under Bush II.
      

    Don't mess this up, President-elect Trump!  WE ARE WATCHING YOU!  

    *For those who don't believe these claims, I will post links and sources for all of these in the next few days.  

*******************************************************************

November 2016 numbers were released Friday morning, December 2nd.  NOVEMBER reports and info HERE.
******************************************************************






e

Continue below...

Sunday, December 4, 2016

What was the unemployment rate when Obama took office and Bush left office? (Updated for November 2016)

What was the unemployment rate when Bush left office and Obama was inaugurated?  7.8% 


What was unemployment when Obama took office?  How many people were unemployed? 
 Read below

What was the unemployment rate after Obama's first full month in office (February 2009)?  8.3%

What was the unemployment rate at peak?  10.0%

What is today's (November 2016's) unemployment rate?   
4.6%:  The lowest unemployment rate since
Summer 2007. 
Yes, we will keep track of the unemployment rate when Trump takes office in January 2017.  The first month he will be "responsible" for the unemployment rate will be February 2017.  He will be inheriting one of the most robust economies of any recent incoming President.

All Latest Jobs and Unemployment Reports HERE

How many people were looking for work when Obama was inaugurated; how many were working? And how many people are looking for work and how many are employed now?


  • Read below the graph.

  • The following chart shows the unemployment rate in three month intervals plus month-by-month for the latest months:

     

Friday, December 2, 2016

November 2016 Unemployment Rate, Jobs

The November 2016 Jobs Report was released by the government's Bureau of Labor Statistics Friday morning, December 2.  It showed steady though unspectacular jobs and employment growth, with a record-breaking 4.7 million EMPLOYED people leaving the work force (probably due mostly to retirement).  The unemployment rate dropped 0.3% as 300,000 MORE unemployed people FOUND work and started working than employed people who LOST jobs and started looking for work. 


November 2016 Highlights:
 

  • The economy added 178,000 jobs, an average number of new jobs, and the unemployment rate fell substantially by 0.3% to 4.6%.
  • Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 176,000 per month.  Since the beginning of the year, job gains have averaged 180,000 per month.
  • The number of employed people went up by 160,000The number of unemployed people went down by 387,000 as 226,000 people left the labor force, meaning that they stopped working or stopped looking for work.  That is a NET number.
  • 9,000 MORE people are working full-time and 118,000 MORE  people are working part-time in November.
  • One of the biggest jumps in employment over the past year is in the area of people working part-time BY CHOICE.  
  • There are about 929,000 MORE people working part-time VOLUNTARILY than a year ago and about 416,000 FEWER people working part-time INVOLUNTARILY than a year ago.
  • Altogether, there are 2.6 million MORE people working than a year ago, with 2.1 million MORE people working full-time and about 513,000 MORE people working part-time than a year ago.  As discussed above, however, the jump in part-time employment is due mostly to people working part-time by choice, as the number of people working part-time involuntarily has fallen to pre-recession levels.
  • There were 156,000 MORE private sector jobs, and 22,000 MORE government jobs in November.  
  • The alternate unemployment rate (U-6) declined to 9.3% this month.  (It has averaged 9.7% during the year of 2016.)  This is down 9.9% from a year ago.
  • Government jobs include jobs at the federal, state, and local levels, including public school teachers.  It does not include military jobs, though it does include civilian Defense workers who are employed directly by the government.  Local government (but not education) accounted for 14,000 of the 22,000 increase in government jobs.
  • Employment in construction was up in November but manufacturing was down slightly.  Employment in professional and business services, accounting and bookkeeping services, administrative support services, and health care employment all increased significantly during the month of November.
  • Year-to-date in 2016, 1,653,000 people (net) have entered the labor force with 1,982,000 more people employed, and 1,599,000 MORE people employed full-time.  That means that people are entering the labor market AND finding full-time jobs. 
  • The Labor Force participation rate has been VERY stable since 2014, varying between 62.4% and 63%.  It was 62.66% in November.
  • Remember that there is NO ideal labor force size, and most of the overall decrease in the labor force participation RATE over the last few years has been due to Baby Boomers retiring in great numbers.

From the BLS report: 

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised up from +191,000 to +208,000, and the change for October was revised down from +161,000 to +142,000. With these revisions, employment gains in September and October combined were 2,000 less than previously reported. Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 176,000 per month. 
(For the record, 8 years ago, in November 2008, we lost 769,000 jobs as the country continued its slide into the worst recession in 80 years.)


November 2016 reports: (Notation on the links will be changed to "UPDATED for November" when the updated reports become available later today or over the weekend.  Not all reports are updated every month.)

More highlights and reports will continue to be posted here over the coming days and weeks.  Please check back!

Expectations and the ADP Report:


The pundits were expecting job growth in the vicinity of 169,000 new private jobs and total job growth in the vicinity of 180,000.  The ADP report, which was released Wednesday, November 30th, showed an increase of 216,000 private sector jobs.  Over time, the numbers in the ADP report tend to follow those in the BLS government report very closely.  In the ADP report, Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics, said:

Businesses hired aggressively in November and there is little evidence that the uncertainty surrounding the presidential election dampened hiring. In addition, because of the tightening labor market, retailers may be accelerating seasonal hiring to secure an adequate workforce to meet holiday demand, although total expected seasonal hiring may be no higher than last year’s.