FEB #: +295,000 jobs; Unemp down to 5.5%. Details HERE! ... Jobs since Obama took office?... Unemp. rate under Obama?

Friday, March 6, 2015

How Many Jobs Were Created or Lost in February 2015?

How Many Jobs Were Created (Gained) or lost by firms, companies, or government employers in the U.S. in February 2015?

******************************************************************February 2015 Highlights and Jobs Reports were released Friday morning, March 6th.   Details HERE.
*****************************************************************
  • 295,000 TOTAL payroll jobs were ADDED or CREATED in seasonally adjusted numbers.
  • 288,000 PRIVATE payroll sector jobs were ADDED or CREATED in seasonally adjusted numbers.
  • 7,000 GOVERNMENT (federal, state, and local) jobs were CREATED in February. 
  • 96,000 MORE people employed.
  • 123,000 MORE people employed full-time. 
  • 75,000 FEWER people employed part-time.
  • 175,000 FEWER people employed part-time involuntarily.  (In other words, people who want full-time work but can only find part-time work.)
  • 178,000 FEWER people in the civilian labor force (people either working or looking for work).
  • 274,000 FEWER people unemployed.
  • Unemployment rate decreased to 5.5% from 5.7% primarily due to an increase in the number of people working, a decrease in the number of people who were unemployed, and a decrease in the number of people in the civilian labor force.
  • The alternate unemployment rate decreased to 11.0% from 11.3%. 
  • 178,000 FEWER people in the civilian labor force (people either working or looking for work).  Why did these people leave the labor force?  Continue reading below...

But how many jobs were LOST in February?


All jobs numbers reported monthly by Bureau of Labor Statistics are NET jobs numbers.  In other words, they represent the number of jobs after all job losses are subtracted from all job gains (new jobs).  If there are job gains, that means that there are more new jobs, more people being hired, than people being fired or jobs being cut.  If there are jobs losses, that means that there are fewer new jobs, fewer people being hired, than people being fired or jobs being cut.  Every month since September 2010, we have had more new jobs created than jobs lost.  This is the longest period of consecutive job growth since these records have been kept.   

The more specific numbers of new hires and number of jobs cut are detailed in the monthly Job Openings, Layoffs, and Turnover Survey (JOLTS) which is published about six weeks after the monthly jobs reports.  This link "How Many People were fired in 2014?" provides a more in-depth explanation of how many people lose their jobs and how many people get new jobs every month.  For example, in 2014 over 55,000 people were fired or laid off on average each DAY... but an average of 160,000 people were HIRED each day in 2014.

Did people leave the labor force in despair, discouragement, and misery?


The labor force in the United States is huge and volatile.  Millions of people enter and leave the labor force every month in the United States; you can find more specifics HERE. 

But here's what happened to people in February:

  • In January, there 157,180,000 people in the civilian labor force.
  • 2,184,000 who were not in the labor force in January entered the labor force and started LOOKING FOR WORK in February.
  • 4,435,000 who were not in the labor force in January entered the labor force and started WORKING in February.  
  • Meanwhile, 2,313,000 people who had been looking for work in January STOPPED LOOKING FOR WORK and left the labor force in February.  As the weather was so bad in February, it is possible that some of these people decided to postpone their work search until the weather improved. 
  • And 4,515,000 people who had been employed in January STOPPED WORKING (and were not looking for work) in February.  A big chunk of these people probably retired, though we don't know that for sure.)
  • These numbers, plus adjustments for relatively small numbers of people turning 16, people dying, people leaving or entering the country, resulted in a slightly smaller labor force of 157,002,000 in February.  
To Summarize:  

In summary, there are many many more payroll jobs and more people employed in February.  Almost all of the newly employed people are working full-time vs. part-time.  


The unemployment rate decreased as more people started working, as the number of people unemployed decreased, and as some people left the labor force.  The numbers of unemployed people who stopped looking for work in February may have been influenced by the terrible weather in the Northeast and Midwest during February.  However, as usual, the numbers in any one month need to be taken with a grain of salt, as any movements in any one month are not necessarily trends.  However, we have now had 60 consecutive months of private sector job creation, a record as long as such numbers have been kept.  


What Was the Unemployment Rate When Obama Took Office (compared to now)? Updated for February 2015


What was the unemployment rate when Bush left office and Obama was inaugurated and took office? What was the unemployment rate when Obama came into office?  7.8% 

(Unemployment rate then and now on the graph below.)

 All February 2015 Reports and Details HERE.

What was the unemployment rate after Obama's first full month in office (February 2009)? 
 8.3%

What was the unemployment rate at peak?  10.0%


What is the unemployment rate now?  Today's unemployment rate (February 2015's)?   5.5%  


All Latest Jobs and Unemployment Reports HERE

How many people were looking for work when Obama was inaugurated; how many were working?  And how many people are looking for work and how many are employed now?

Please read below the graph.


The following chart shows the unemployment rate in three month intervals plus the last three months:







Why are there two lines, one for "Seas Adjusted" and one for "Unadjusted" in the chart above?  
This is explained at the bottom of the article.
  • What Caused the Rise in Unemployment When Obama Took Office?  Obama caused the unemployment rate to rise?  (Continue reading; the answer  is below the fold.)
  •  What Was the Unemployment Rate When Bush Took Office?  How high did it rise?  (The answer is also below the fold.)  


How Many Jobs Created or Lost Under Obama? (February 2015 update)

How many NET jobs created or lost under Obama* as of February 2015? How many private sector jobs have been lost or added during Obama's presidency?


How many new jobs in the last 6 years since Obama was inaugurated?  How many Americans were working or employed when Obama took office... compared to now?

Continue below.....


***February 2015 Highlights and Jobs Reports Were Released Friday morning, March 6th:
  +295,000 jobs; Unemployment rate down to 5.5%.  Details HERE.***

Numbers for February with latest revisions:



Since the "trough" of the recession in late 2009/early 2010 in seasonally adjusted numbers:
  • 11,477,000 MORE payroll jobs in total
  • 12,042,000 MORE private sector jobs
  • 10,284,000 MORE people working (includes self-employed and agricultural workers)
How many workers were full-time or part-time at the "trough" of the recession in late 2009/early 2010 compared to now?

  • 10,275,000 MORE people working full-time.
  • 8,000 FEWER people working part-time.  
  • (Yes, despite what you may have heard, from the depth of the recession until now, we have many more additional people working full-time vs. part-time jobs. When a recession hits, companies generally cut back on full-time workers first.  When companies start hiring again, the number of full-time workers increases.)

Since Bush left office & Obama took office (January 2009) in seasonally adjusted numbers:
  • 7,149,000 MORE jobs in total
  • 7,817,000 MORE private sector jobs
  • 6,145,000 MORE people working

How many workers were full-time or part-time when Obama was inaugurated compared to now?

  • 5,016,000 MORE people working full-time
  • 1,094,000 MORE people working part-time












Have any private jobs been lost (net) over the past 60 months since February 2010?


NO!
  • 60 months of consecutive private-sector job growth.
  • The longest consecutive period of private-sector job increases since this number has been recorded. 
  • ALL jobs losses since the recession (January 2008 was the prior peak of jobs) have been made up, added back, or recovered.

Have any jobs been lost (net) over the past 53 months since September 2010?

NO!
  • 53 months of consecutive overall job growth.

Are more people unemployed now than when Obama took office in January 2009?  

NO!
  • Despite 2,792,000 MORE people in the labor force (either working or actively looking for work) now vs. January 2009, there are 3,353,000 FEWER people unemployed now than in January 2009. 






*What's the difference between "net" and "gross" jobs gained and lost?


Let's get something straight:  Jobs are lost every week and every month. People are fired, people are laid off, businesses or locations are closed and everybody is let go. 
 

Also people quit every week.  You yourself, dear reader,  may have quit a job at some point in time. 


But people are also HIRED every week and every month.  New businesses open, businesses expand, businesses replace people who have left or been fired.  Every week.  You yourself, dear reader, may have been hired for a job at some point in time.This happens in good times and bad. 

Yes, even in bad times, people are getting hired.  Even in good times, people are let go.  

Now:  The monthly jobs reportupon which this article is based, presents estimates based on surveys as to how many jobs are gained or lost in a given month.  Those numbers are based on the number of new jobs (people getting hired, businesses opening) MINUS the number of jobs that have been cut (people getting fired, people quitting, businesses closing or cutting back).



The monthly jobs report therefore reports NET job growth or loss.  


For 51 months in this country, we have had MORE jobs being added than we have had jobs being cut.  For 58 months in the private sector (not counting federal workers, state or local workers such as teachers, firemen, cops, or people who staff the DMV, only counting people who work for private businesses), we have had MORE jobs added than we have had jobs being cut.

To reiterate:  How many jobs have been created in the last 5 years versus how many jobs have been lost?
All numbers provided on monthly jobs reports, which is what the series on jobs created/lost under Obama is based, are NET jobs numbers.  In other words, they reflect gains after all job losses are subtracted, or they reflect job losses after all gains are added. 
For the past 60 months (as of February 2015), we have had NET gains in private jobs numbers every month.  In other words, in every month since February 2010, more private jobs have been created than have been lost.  In every month since September 2010, more jobs in total have been created than have been lost.  This is the longest consecutive period of job growth since these numbers have been recorded.
Fact check and important information on these jobs numbers...

The above jobs numbers are from the BLS jobs report of February 2015, which was released in early March 2015.  The surveys used to gather these numbers are taken as of the week which includes the 12th day of the month, in this case, February 12, 2015. 

February 2015 Unemployment Rate, Jobs

February 2015 Highlights and Jobs Reports were released this morning, Friday, March 6th.  +295,000 total jobs, +288,000 private jobs, unemployment dropped to 5.5%.  Details and reports listed throughout the day.

February 2015 Highlights (Specific reports listed below):
  • +295,000 total new payroll jobs; +288,000 new private sector jobs.  These large increases are again higher than the concensus of the "pundits", who estimated that we would add about 230,000 jobs in February.
  • The BLS decreased its January estimates from +257,000 new jobs to +239,000 new jobs; December estimates stayed the same.
  • Unemployment rate decreased by  .2% (two tenths of a percent) to 5.5%.  This decrease was due largely to a big decrease in the number of people who are unemployed.  
  • Alternate unemployment rate fell from 11.3% down to 11.0%.  This was due to a decrease in ALL segments that compose the alternate unemployment rate, particularly the overall number of unemployed and the number of involuntarily part-time workers.
  • Labor force participation rate decreased .1%.  The number of people in the labor force decreased by 178,000.  The reported number of people employed increased by 96,000, the reported number of people unemployed decreased by 274,000.
  • Number of people working full-time increased by about 123,000 while number of people working part-time decreased by about 75,000.  That's 2,975,000 MORE people working full-time over the past year, since February 2014, and 89,000 MORE people working part-time over the past year.  The percentage of all employed people who are working full-time is HIGHER than it has been since the end of 2008.   
  • The number of involuntary part-time workers (people working part-time because they couldn't find full-time work) decreased by 175,000 in February and dropped 569,000 over the past year, since February 2014.
  • Number of people holding multiple jobs decreased by about 500,000 since last month. 
  • The number of long-term unemployed (people looking for work over half a year) dropped by 91,000 in February, but has dropped 1,095,000 over the past year, since February 2014.
  • This report is a very good report in almost every respect; it will be interesting to see on what the negative "pundits" decide to focus.  
  • Since the "trough" of the recession in late 2009/early 2010 in seasonally adjusted numbers:
    • 11.5 million MORE jobs in total
    • 12 million MORE private sector jobs
    • 10.3 million MORE people working
    • 10.3 million MORE people working full-time.
    • 8,000 FEWER people working part-time.  
    • (Yes, despite what you may have heard, from the depth of the recession until now, we have many more additional people working full-time vs. part-time jobs. When a recession hits, companies generally cut back on full-time workers first.  When companies start hiring again, the number of full-time workers increases.)
    Since Bush left office & Obama took office (January 2009) in seasonally adjusted numbers:
    • 7.1 million MORE jobs in total
    • 7.8 million MORE private sector jobs
    • 6.1 million MORE people working
    • 5 million MORE people working full-time
    • 1.1 million MORE people working part-time

February 2015 reports: (Notation on the links will be changed to "UPDATED for FEBRUARY" when the updated reports become available.) 



      Preview (written Thursday night):

      "The pundits" expect about 235,000 more jobs when the BLS counts are released tomorrow morning at 8:30 a.m., with the unemployment rate remaining dropping .1% back to 5.6%.  If there are many more jobs but the unemployment rate stays the same, this would be a good indication that more people have entered the labor force in February, as they did in January.  If there is a wild card in this month's numbers, it is due (again) to really poor weather in the Midwest and Northeast.    
      • The ADP private payroller report came out yesterday which estimated an additional 212,000 private sector jobs in February.  Estimates for December and January were raised.  According to ADP's estimates, the US has added over 200,000 private sector jobs for at least the last 13 months.
      • Reuters reports that "About 238,000 jobs are expected to have been added in February, according to the non-farm payroll report that will be released on Friday, down from the 257,000 added in January."
      • The ISM (Institute of Supply Management) Employment Index increased 4.8 percentage points to 56.4 percent from the January reading of 51.6 percent and "indicates growth for the 12th consecutive month."
      • Bloomberg believes that the BLS report "may show U.S. payrolls rose by 235,000 in February, a slower pace than a month earlier, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg."  
      • The Consumer Sentiment index for February compiled by the University of Michigan  decreased to 95.4 from the January reading of 98.1.  But the Michigan people caution:  "Consumer optimism was affected by lower gas prices and an unusually harsh winter. The small overall decline from January still left consumer confidence at the highest levels in eight years. It is hard not to attribute the small February decline to the temporary impact of the harsh weather, as declines that occurred in the Northeast and Midwest were triple the average loss, while Southern residents grew more optimistic. Low gas prices had a larger impact on lower income households, narrowing the difference between low and high income households. The data indicate that total real personal consumption expenditures will grow at 3.3% during 2015."
      • "The Rasmussen Employment Index  which measures worker confidence "rose a point in February to tie the highest level measured in six years.  At 104.2, worker confidence is up from 103.3 in January and matches December’s all-time high."
      • Job search engine Linkup.com was the outlier again, but this time positively, projecting a net gain of 370,000 jobs in February.  (They base their projections largely on job openings.) 
      • The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits has risen for the last few weeks, and it rose last week "to its highest level since May, which could raise concerns about some weakness in the labor market."  according to MSN Money.  (However, this increase in the number of new claims could also be the result of terrible weather, both excessive snow and cold, this past month.)Money also noted:  "Other data on Thursday showed nonfarm productivity contracted more sharply than previously thought in the fourth quarter as output failed to keep up with a jump in hours.  Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased by 7,000 to a seasonally adjusted 320,000 for the week ended Feb. 28, the highest reading since mid-May, the Labor Department said on Thursday."


      Tuesday, February 17, 2015

      Jobs Created Lost January 2015

      February 2015 Highlights and Jobs Reports Were Released Friday morning, March 6th.   Details HERE.

      Jobs Created Lost February 2015 HERE.

      How Many Jobs Created (Gained) or Lost by U. S. firms or companies in January 2015?
      • 257,000 TOTAL payroll jobs were ADDED or CREATED in seasonally adjusted numbers.
      • 267,000 PRIVATE payroll sector jobs were ADDED or CREATED in seasonally adjusted numbers.
      • 10,000 GOVERNMENT (federal, state, and local) jobs were LOST in January. 
      • 759,000 MORE people employed.
      • 777,000 MORE people employed full-time. 
      • 40,000 MORE people employed part-time.
      • 20,000 FEWER people employed part-time involuntarily.  (In other words, people who want full-time work but can only find part-time work.)
      • 1,051,000 MORE people in the civilian labor force (people either working or looking for work).
      • 291,000 MORE people unemployed.
      • Unemployment rate increased slightly to 5.7% primarily due to an increase in the number of people who entered the labor force and started to look for work.

      To Summarize:  

      In summary, there are many many more payroll jobs and more people employed.  Almost all of the newly employed people are working full-time vs. part-time.  

      The unemployment rate increased slightly due to the number of people entering the labor force.  As usual, the numbers in any one month need to be taken with a grain of salt, as any movements in any one month are not necessarily trends.  However, we have now had 59 consecutive months of private sector job creation, a record as long as such numbers have been kept.  


      Monday, February 9, 2015

      What Was the Unemployment Rate When Obama Took Office (compared to now)? January 2015 update


      Unemployment When Obama Took Office Compared to NOW for February HERE

      February 2015 Highlights and Jobs Reports were released Friday morning, March 6th.
         Details HERE.


      What was the unemployment rate when Bush left office and Obama was inaugurated and took office? What was the unemployment rate when Obama came into office?  
      7.8% 

      (Unemployment rate then and now on the graph below.)

      What was the unemployment rate after Obama's first full month in office (February 2009)? 
       8.3%

      What was the unemployment rate at peak?  10.0%


      What is the unemployment rate now?  Today's unemployment rate (January 2015's)?   5.7%  


      All Latest Jobs and Unemployment Reports HERE

      How many people were looking for work when Obama was inaugurated; how many were working?  And how many people are looking for work and how many are employed now?

      Please read below the graph.


      The following chart shows the unemployment rate in three month intervals plus the last three months:











      Why are there two lines, one for "Seas Adjusted" and one for "Unadjusted" in the chart above?  
      This is explained at the bottom of the article.
      • What Caused the Rise in Unemployment When Obama Took Office?  Obama caused the unemployment rate to rise?  (Continue reading; the answer  is below the fold.)
      •  What Was the Unemployment Rate When Bush Took Office?  How high did it rise?  (The answer is also below the fold.)  


      Sunday, February 8, 2015

      Bush Tax Cuts End.. Job Growth Starts?

      I love this graph from the New York Times.. It shows payroll jobs growth for a rolling year-over-year from 2011 until 2015.

      Original found HERE








      You may recall that the Bush tax cuts were sunset in early 2013 for the richest people and families, those people and families making $400,000+... and some new ACA (Affordable Care Act) taxes kicked in for higher earners at the same time.

      Of course, the right complained and complained that these increased taxes would cost jobs and prosperity; you know, the whole "Rich people are the job creators" bit.  But it looks as though the righties were wrong... again!  Job growth has really taken a jump over the past 18 months to two years.

      Hmmm... Maybe this trickle down stuff really doesn't work?
      (An Oldie but a Goodie: More about those "job creators" HERE.)

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