JUNE# released Fri, July 7: +222,000 jobs. Unemployment up 4.4%...JUNE details HERE.. Jobs since Trump took office?... Unemp. rate under Trump? (not yet updated)

Friday, July 7, 2017

June 2017 Unemployment Rate, Jobs

The June 2017 Jobs Report was released by the government's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, July 7. This is a strong report, seeming to reverse the weakness seen in the prior few months.  Again, one month does not make a trend, and this report, while strong, is not better than most of the job reports during the Obama years.

The economy has been adding jobs consistently for 7 years.  In fact, in 45 of the 84 months between early 2010 and the end of the Obama Presidency, 200,000 or more jobs have been added.

The job reports under Trump (since February) seem to continue this trend of consistent addition of jobs and decline in the unemployment rate. 

June 2017 Job Report Highlights: 
  • The economy added 222,000 jobs, a below average number of new jobs, and the unemployment rate grew slightly slightly by 0.1% to 4.4% due to people entering the labor force and finding jobs.

It's Jobs Day in America!

It seems like a long time since the May jobs numbers, but finally we eagerly anticipate the jobs numbers for June 2017.  

The payroll processor ADP estimates that we added 158,000 new private sector jobs in June 2017.  Their estimates have been high compared to the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) numbers for the last few months; we'll see what happens tomorrow morning.

Unemployment claims numbers continue to be very low, though not quite as low as they were in late May.  

Reuters reports that the pundits estimated that we would add 185,000 private sector jobs, so the 158,000 reported by ADP was a disappointment and was largely responsible for the drop in the stock market.

We'll see what we will see tomorrow morning, 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, very close to the time that Trump will be meeting with Putin in Germany.  So it will be a busy Friday morning.

Until tomorrow!

Sunday, June 4, 2017

Job Growth Is Usually Higher Under Democratic Administrations

Democratic administrations beat Republican administrations in terms of overall percentage of job growth.  Democratic administrations are denoted by blue bars, Republican administrations by red bars on the graph below.
(You may wish to click the photo to get a better look at the graph.)

All together?   Republicans or Democrats?

Since January 1945, about 72 years ago and almost the beginning of the Post WWII era, there have been 18 Presidential terms, 9 held by Democratic administrations, 9 held by Republican administrations.  

Over all, during those 18 terms, job growth has averaged 7.26% per four-year term based on the number of jobs counted and reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, now found at BLS Table CES0000000001.  

  • Job growth in 9 Republican terms has averaged  4.79% per four-year term.
  • Job growth in 9 Democratic terms has averaged 10.91% per four-year term.

Friday, June 2, 2017

May 2017 Unemployment Rate, Jobs

The May 2017 Jobs Report was released by the government's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, June 2. This is a fairly mediocre report, and it is unclear if it shows the beginning of a weakness in the job market, or whether it just shows an anomaly.

May 2017 Job Report Highlights: 
  • The economy added 138,000 jobs, a below average number of new jobs, and the unemployment rate fell slightly by 0.1% to 4.3% due to people leaving the labor force.
  • Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 121,000 per month.  Over the past 12 months, job gains have averaged 181,000 per month.
  • The number of employed people DECREASED by 233,000The number of unemployed people DECREASED by 195,000 as 429,000 people left the labor force, meaning that they either stopped working or stopped looking for work.  That is a NET number.
  • 367,000 FEWER people are working full-time and 133,000 MORE  people were working part-time in May.
  • There were 147,000 MORE private sector jobs, and 9,000 FEWER government jobs in May.  
  • The alternate unemployment rate (U-6) declined to 8.4% this month.  A year ago the U-6 rate was 9.7%.  
  • The Labor Force participation rate has been VERY stable since 2014, varying between 62.4% and 63%.  It was 62.7% in May, declining 0.2% since April, but rising 0.1%  over the past year.
  • Remember that there is NO ideal labor force size, and most of the overall decrease in the labor force participation RATE over the last few years has been due to Baby Boomers retiring in great numbers.
From the BLS report: 
"The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for March was revised down from +79,000 to +50,000, and the change for April was revised down from +211,000 to +174,000. With these revisions, employment gains in March and April combined were 66,000 less than previously reported. Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors. Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 121,000 per month."

May 2017 reports: (Notation on the links will be changed to "UPDATED for May" when the updated reports become available later today or over the weekend.  Not all reports are updated every month.)

More highlights and reports will continue to be posted here over the coming days and weeks.  Please check back!

Tuesday, May 9, 2017

How Many People Are Fired Each Year in the United States? (Early 2017 update)

How Many People Are Fired or Laid Off Each Year in the United States?  How Many People Are Fired Each Day in the United States?

(This article has been updated with data from the month of
February 2017.) 

How many people are not working in the U.S.?  How many adults are not working in the U.S.?  Here!
Hold on...  These numbers sound staggering:

An average of 
54,549 people were laid off or fired EACH DAY (including weekends and holidays) in 2016. (19,965,000
 people in total were laid off or fired in the 366 days of 2016.)

Monthly layoffs & discharges in thousands from the BLS JOLTS survey.

An average of 54,966 people have been laid off or fired each day (including weekends and holidays) in the first two months of 2017.  A total of 3,243,000 people have been laid off or fired in the first 59 days of 2017 (through February).

These sound like big numbers, but the 2016 number is the 
LOWEST number of annual layoffs in the 16 years since 2001.

These are huge numbers.... So.... how can the jobs numbers keep going up?  Is someone lying?  

Sunday, April 30, 2017

How Many Jobs Were Gained or Lost Under Trump During His First 100 Days?

Trump recently claimed that he was responsible for the creation of 600,000 jobs since he took office 100 days ago.  

Yes?  No?  Maybe so?

First, here's a chart that shows how Trump stacks up against Obama and George W Bush in terms of PRIVATE sector jobs.  It shows total private sector jobs from the prior peak of jobs under W back in early 2008, down through the Recession, and back up under Obama, so far continuing under Trump, as of the data available from March 2017:

Private jobs added over the past 9 years including those added during the young Trump administration 

Trump Fantasies

About two weeks ago, on April 11th, just a few days after the March jobs numbers were published, Trump insisted that he was responsible for the creation of 600,000 new jobs since he was inaugurated back in January.

CNN and several other venues called him on it and made it clear that this was not true.  CNN gave Trump credit for the 317,000 new jobs reported in February (219,000) and March (98,000).  But even CNN got things a bit wrong.  CNN wrote:

A White House spokesman said Trump is including all the job added in January as well (216,000). Trump was only in office for 11.5 days that month.

But even if you give him all of the gains for January, that still only brings the tally to 533,000 jobs created so far in 2017.

The math doesn't quite add up to 600,000.
Does anyone in the White House know how the BLS counts jobs?  Does anyone from CNN know how the BLS counts jobs?

CNN counted the net jobs added by employers and reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics during February and March.  Those numbers do add up to 317,000.  (Remember that all jobs reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics are NET jobs:  Jobs added after all jobs that were lost are subtracted and vice verse.)

One big problem with that though:  Jobs numbers are reported as of the week of the previous month that contains the 12th day of that month.  So January 2017 jobs numbers reflect jobs in the country as of the week of January 12, 2017.  And who was President on January 12, 2017?  Yeah.. A guy named Barack Obama.  So not one blessed job that was reported in January 2017 belongs in the Trump column!  Even CNN talked about a fraction of the jobs added in January as though they might belong in Trump's column..   but that's just plain wrong.

But, but, but.. all of those new jobs Trump is talking about!

Trump was also claiming that the new hires promised by corporations such as Ford, etc., should be attributed to him.  But let's remember that, when you back away from NET jobs, employers in the United States ACTUALLY added a GROSS average of 5.2 million jobs a MONTH in 2016.  So there is plenty of room in those 5.2 million jobs for new hires from Ford, GM, ExxonMobil and all the rest to add employees.  (Let's not forget that about 1.6 million people a month on average were terminated for various reasons in 2016 and about 3.1 million people a month quit their jobs voluntarily for various reasons in 2016.)

We'll have to watch Trump's jobs claims very carefully.  Two things are definitely true about Trump:
  • He lies; his staff lies, and they all lie some more.
  • He doesn't have any idea what the jobs reports really show.     

And my biggest concern about Trump:

I'm concerned that he will try to cut the staff or the quality control of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and we may wind up not knowing what the jobs numbers really are.  Democracy dies in the dark.