Mar BLS jobs +192,000, unemp rate same at 6.7%. New record in private jobs # Info HERE . Jobs since Obama took office? HERE Unemp. rate under Obama? HERE

Friday, April 4, 2014

Money, money... More Money? Average Hourly Income Graph

The Average Hourly Income of Production and Non-Supervisory Workers in 1982-1984 Dollars:


Average Hourly Earnings of Production and Non-supervisory employees adjusted for inflation




The BLS shows us the average hourly income of production and non-supervisory employees, which eliminates managers and most fat cats, as expressed in 1982-1984 dollars, on the above graph.  The average hourly wage reached its lowest recent point back in the end of the George Bush I/early Bill Clinton days in 1990 through 1996.  It then started to ramp up, reaching a post-80's peak in 2003.  It was very volatile, probably due to inflation, in the 2003 through 2008 period of time, and then started to climb as the Recession took hold.  (During a recession, prices often decline and we have deflation vs. inflation.  Despite a poor job market, wages adjusted for inflation often rise during such economies.)

As deflation resolved and the economy started to grow in 2009 and 2010, the rise in inflation-adjusted wages evened out.  It fell off some in 2011 and 2012, but then started to rise again in 2013 as the economy did start to add jobs.  We don't have this figure for March yet, but in February 2014, this number was equivalent to what it was in 1979, before a period of high inflation.

We've all heard that household income has barely started to rise and that most of the gains in productivity have gone to the upper 1 to 10%.  Despite the rise in inflation-adjusted wages for "regular" workers, income and wealth inequality continues to widen.  And, of course, as we look at the graph above, we can see that we are nowhere as well off in inflation-adjusted hourly wages as we were during 1972-1973.  

The above graph raises more questions than it answers, though:  If average wages, even for the peons, are actually rising, why does it FEEL as though they aren't?

And how do those wages look WITHOUT adjustments for inflation?  Like this:


Average Hourly earnings of Production and Non-supervisory Employees NOT Adjusted for Inflation

Jobs Created, Lost March 2014

New record in private sector jobs:  We have 116,087,000 private sector jobs in the U.S., a new record surpassing the number of private sector jobs when the recession began, in January 2008.  The economy has regained (or recouped) all private sector jobs lost during the recession.



In March 2014:
  • 192,000 TOTAL payroll jobs were ADDED in seasonally adjusted numbers.
  • 192,000 PRIVATE payroll sector jobs were ADDED in seasonally adjusted numbers.
  • There was NO CHANGE in the number of GOVERNMENT sector (federal, state, and local) jobs in March. 
  • 476,000 MORE people employed.
  • 184,000 MORE people employed full-time.
  • 365,000 MORE people employed part-time.
  • 503,000 MORE people in the civilian labor force (people either working or looking for work).
  • 27,000 MORE people unemployed.
  • Unemployment rate stays the same at 6.7% due to the large number of people who joined the labor force in March.

How Many Jobs Have Been Lost or Gained Over the Past Year from March 2013 to March 2014?

March 2014 jobs numbers and unemployment reports have been released this morning, Friday, April 4th.  

 Please check back for this report.



How Many Jobs Has Obama Created or Lost? (Updated for March 2014)

How many NET jobs created or lost under Obama as of March 2014?  How many private sector jobs have been lost or added during Obama's presidency?


How many new jobs in the last 5 years since Obama was inaugurated?  How many Americans were working or employed when Obama took office... compared to now?


Numbers for March with all revisions:

Since the "trough" of the recession in late 2009/early 2010 in seasonally adjusted numbers:
  • 8.3 million MORE jobs in total
  • 8.9 million MORE private sector jobs
  • 7.7 million MORE people working
  • ALL private sector jobs lost in the recession since January 2008 have now been recouped.
How many workers were full-time or part-time at the "trough" of the recession in late 2009/early 2010 compared to now?

  • 7.4 million MORE people working full-time.
  • 216,000 MORE people working part-time.  
  • (Yes, despite what you may have heard, from the depth of the recession until now, we have many more additional people working full-time vs. part-time jobs. When a recession hits, companies generally cut back on full-time workers first.  When companies start hiring again, the number of full-time workers increases.)

Since Bush left office & Obama took office (January 2009) in seasonally adjusted numbers:
  • 4.0 million MORE jobs in total
  • 4.7 million MORE private sector jobs
  • 3.6 million MORE people working

How many workers were full-time or part-time when Obama was inaugurated compared to now?

  • 2.2 million MORE people working full-time
  • 1.3 million MORE people working part-time  




Have any private jobs been lost (net) over the past 
49 months since February 2010?
NO!
  • 49 months of consecutive private-sector job growth.

Have any jobs been lost (net) over the past 42 months since September 2010?

NO!
  • 42 months of consecutive overall job growth.
Are more people unemployed now than when Obama took office in January 2009?  
NO!
  • Despite 2,017,000 MORE people in the labor force (either working or actively looking for work) now vs. January 2009, there are 1,572,000 FEWER people unemployed now than in January 2009. 








What's the difference between "net" and "gross" jobs gained and lost?


Let's get something straight:  Jobs are lost every week and every month. People are fired, people are laid off, businesses or locations are closed and everybody is let go. 
 

Also people quit every week.  You yourself, dear reader,  may have quit a job at some point in time. 


But people are also HIRED every week and every month.  New businesses open, businesses expand, businesses replace people who have left or been fired.  Every week.  You yourself, dear reader, may have been hired for a job at some point in time.This happens in good times and bad. 

Yes, even in bad times, people are getting hired.  Even in good times, people are let go.  

Now:  The monthly jobs reportupon which this article is based, presents estimates based on surveys as to how many jobs are gained or lost in a given month.  Those numbers are based on the number of new jobs (people getting hired, businesses opening) MINUS the number of jobs that have been cut (people getting fired, people quitting, businesses closing or cutting back).

The monthly jobs report therefore reports NET job growth or loss.  


For 42 months in this country, we have had MORE jobs being added than we have had jobs being cut.  For 49 months in the private sector (not counting federal workers, state or local workers such as teachers, firemen, cops, or people who staff the DMV, only counting people who work for private businesses), we have had MORE jobs added than we have had jobs being cut.

To reiterate:  How many jobs have been created in the last 5 years versus how many jobs have been lost?
All numbers provided on monthly jobs reports, which is what the series on jobs created/lost under Obama is based, are NET jobs numbers.  In other words, they reflect gains after all job losses are subtracted, or they reflect job losses after all gains are added. 
For the past 49 months (as of March 2014), we have had NET gains in private jobs numbers every month.  In other words, in every month since February 2010, more private jobs have been created than have been lost.  In every month since September 2010, more jobs in total have been created than have been lost.


Fact check and important information on these jobs numbers...

The above jobs numbers are from the BLS jobs report of March 2014, which was released in April 2014.  The surveys used to gather these numbers in March are taken as of the week which includes the 12th day of the month, in this case, March 12, 2014. 



Private Govt Jobs Gained Lost Obama

March 2014 jobs numbers and unemployment reports have been released this morning, Friday, April 4th.  

 Please check back for latest numbers and charts which are now under construction!



What Was the Unemployment Rate When Obama Took Office (compared to now)? Updated for March 2014

What was the unemployment rate when Bush left office and Obama was inaugurated? 7.8%


What was the unemployment rate after Obama's first full month in office (February 2009)?  8.3%

What was the unemployment rate at peak?  10.0%

What is today's (March 2014's) unemployment rate?   6.7%  


All Latest Jobs and Unemployment Reports HERE

How many people were looking for work when Obama was inaugurated; how many were working?  And how many people are looking for work and how many are employed now?

  • Read below the graph.
  • The following chart shows the unemployment rate in three month intervals plus month-by-month for the latest months:


      

Why are there two lines, one for "Seas Adjusted" and one for "Unadjusted"?

The Bureau of Labor Statistics uses seasonal adjustments to adjust for the volatility in the labor market from one month to the next.  The relatively even declining red line above shows the unemployment rate based on seasonally adjusted numbers.  The jagged green line shows the unemployment rate based on "real", "raw" numbers; the unadjusted rate.  Notice that the green line goes up in January (after holiday layoffs) and July (school-related layoffs), and it goes down in October and April, which are strong months for workers.  (Employees are all back to school in October, and employers are staffing up for the holidays.  Schools are also full in April and employers are starting to staff up for summer, construction, vacation venues, etc.)  The red line helps us to compare the unemployment rate over a period of months; the green line, however, reflects "reality":  Your friends, neighbors, and family members actually working or not working.  

Thursday, April 3, 2014

March 2014 Unemployment Rate, Jobs

New record in private sector jobs:  We have 116,087,000 private sector jobs in the U.S., a new record surpassing the number of private sector jobs when the recession began, in January 2008.

March 2014 Jobs Numbers and Unemployment Rate were released Friday morning, April 4, 2014.

March 2014 BLS highlights:

  • The BLS reports that 192,000 payroll jobs were added in March, about in line with projections, (though some economists projected that over 200,000 jobs would be added.)
  • January jobs numbers were revised upwards by 15,000 and February numbers were revised upwards  by 22,000.  Job growth has averaged 183,000/month over the past 12 months.  
  • Private jobs increased by 192,000.
  • Government jobs stayed exactly the same. 
  • Unemployment rate stayed at 6.7%  The unemployment rate stayed the same despite an additional 476,000 employed because the civilian labor force (the number of people working or looking for work) grew by 503,000(The unemployment rate comes from a different source than the number of jobs which is why the unemployment rate can increase even if the number of jobs increases.  Over time, these two numbers closely parallel each other.  The unemployment rate, however, is much more volatile than the jobs numbers.  Also, the unemployment rate is not directed related to the number of people getting unemployment benefits.  This is one of the biggest employment myths out there. MORE HERE.)   
  • The alternate unemployment rate (which includes part time workers who want full time jobs, discouraged workers, and marginally attached workers) INCREASED to 12.7%, an increase of .1%, one-tenth of a percent. One year ago the alternate unemployment rate was 13.8%.  (The alternate unemployment rate increased this month primarily due to an increase in the number of involuntary part-time workers; that is, the number of people working part-time who would rather work full-time.  This number increased by 225,000 in March.)
  • The labor force increased by 503,000 in March, presumably as the weather improved and people started to look for work or were actually hired.
  • The number of people employed, including agricultural and self-employed, increased 476,000 in March, with an increase of 184,000 employed full-time.
  • Since the "trough" of the recession in late 2009/early 2010 in seasonally adjusted numbers:
    • 8.3 million MORE jobs in total
    • 8.9 million MORE private sector jobs
    • 7.8 million MORE people working* 
    Since Bush left office & Obama took office (January 2009) in seasonally adjusted numbers:
    • 4.0 million MORE jobs in total
    • 4.7 million MORE private sector jobs
    • 3.6 million MORE people working*

Check back for more reports later in the day.

March 2014 reports to be published: (Notation on the links will be changed to "Updated for March" when the updated reports become available.) 



Expectations:
  • The "pundits" expected the March report to show robust job growth as the weather has improved from that of January and February.  A Reuters poll predicted a gain of 200,000 jobs in March.
  • An article in USA Today quotes economists expecting 195,000 up to 230,000 new jobs.
  • Fox News also quotes estimates of 200,000 new jobs with unemployment dropping to 6.6%.
  • The ADP (payroll service) private employment report which was released Wednesday, April 2nd, showed a gain of 191,000 private sector jobs.