Tuesday, November 7, 2017

How Is Job Growth Under Trump? Well....

Well... We are still adding jobs as we move into the 10th month of the Trump Presidency.  That's a good thing considering the uncertainty and absurdity of many of the President's policies. 


But how are we doing compared to the last 5-6 years of the Obama Presidency?

Let's not just look at raw jobs numbers, but let's look at the percentage increase in jobs numbers over six month periods.  That will even out the jobs numbers, which tend to jump up and down month to month, over a six month period. 

Here is what job growth has looked like over the past five years when calculated as a percentage increase over any running six month period:
Source:  Change in BLS jobs numbers from chart CES0000000001
over any 6 month period as a %

     

Friday, November 3, 2017

October 2017 Jobs Preview

Big jump expected!  


It seems as though September jobs numbers were released eons ago, and mediocre jobs numbers they were.  In fact, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, we actually LOST 33,000 jobs in September, the first time that has happened in the United States since 2010.

The Big But.. (please read below)


Friday, October 6, 2017

September 2017 Unemployment Rate, Jobs

33,000 jobs lost, probably due to Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria.  Unemployment drops to 4.2%. 


This is the first drop in total jobs since September 2010 with a huge drop in the number of people employed in the "Food Services and Drinking Places" sector.   We won't know if this total drop was due to the hurricanes at least until the state employment reports for September are published later this month.

The September 2017 Jobs Report was released by the government's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, Friday, October 6. 

  • This was a very mediocre report, showing a loss of 33,000 jobs, the first loss in total jobs since September 2010.  
  • However, the unemployment rate dropped down to 4.2%, the lowest unemployment rate since February 2001.

Hurricane influence?

Thursday, September 7, 2017

Weekly Unemployment Claims: Week Ending September 2, 2017

Claims for Unemployment Benefits Jump

Thanks to Hurricane Harvey, initial claims for unemployment benefits increased by about 61,000 in seasonally adjusted numbers, 53,000 in unadjusted "real" numbers.

Notice the big hockey stick increase in the right at this graph from the Department of Labor:

From the Department of Labor
T

Wednesday, September 6, 2017

How Many Jobs Has Trump Created or Lost? (August 2017 update)

How many NET jobs have been created or lost under Trump as of August 2017? How many private sector jobs have been lost or added during Trump's presidency?

*See below
 
**************************************
August 2017 numbers were released 
Friday morning, September 1st.  
All AUGUST reports and info are listed  HERE.
September # will be released Friday, October 6.


  • Obama's final jobs numbers HERE.
  • Trump's million jobs:  Good or bad? HERE

**************************************

How many new jobs in the last 7 months since Trump was inaugurated?  
How many Americans were working or employed when Trump took office... compared to now?  How many of those people are working full-time vs. part-time?
*See below

Notice that the trajectory of job growth has not changed under Trump (green line at upper right).  We continue to add private sector jobs at about the same pace as we added private sector jobs under Obama.

Friday, September 1, 2017

August 2017 Unemployment Rate, Jobs

The August 2017 Jobs Report was released by the government's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, Friday, September 1. This was a surprisingly mediocre report, showing only 156,000 new jobs, and it did not meet the pundits' estimates of 180,000 to 200,000 new jobs.   The unemployment rate inched up to 4.4%, in the same range that it has been in since April.


Hurricane Harvey influence?



Some suggest that the jobs numbers may represent a turn-around from a strong Obama economy to a weaker Trump economy, but we won't know that for a few months.

Jobs numbers are compiled as of the week containing the 12th day of the month, so this report was not impacted by Hurricane Harvey, but the next 1-2 reports may well be.  Jobs numbers did not go down after Hurricane Katrina back in 2005, but they did seem to stall.
The economy has been adding jobs consistently for 7 1/2 years now.  In fact, in 45 of the 83 months between early 2010 and the end of the Obama Presidency, 200,000 or more jobs were added.


Despite this month's slow down and minor increase in the unemployment rate, job reports under Trump (since February) seem to continue the trend of consistent addition of jobs and slow but generally consistent decline in the unemployment rate. 

August 2017 Job Report Highlights: 

  • The economy added 156,000 jobs, a below average number of new jobs, and the unemployment rate increased slightly by 0.1% to 4.4% due to people entering the labor force but not immediately finding jobs.

Friday, August 25, 2017

How Many Jobs Has Trump Created Or Lost? (July 2017 update)

How many NET jobs have been created or lost under Trump as of July 2017? How many private sector jobs have been lost or added during Trump's presidency?

*See below
 
**************************************
July 2017 numbers were released 
Friday morning, August 4th.  
All JULY reports and info will be listed  HERE.
August # will be released Friday, September 1.

  • Obama's final jobs numbers HERE.
  • Trump's million jobs:  Good or bad? HERE

**************************************

How many new jobs in the last 6 months since Trump was inaugurated?  
How many Americans were working or employed when Trump took office... compared to now?  How many of those people are working full-time vs. part-time?
*See below

Notice that the trajectory of job growth has not changed under Trump (green line at upper right).  We continue to add private sector jobs at about the same pace as we added private sector jobs under Obama.