JULY BLS: +209,000 jobs, Unemp. rate up to 6.2%. Details HERE! Jobs since Obama took office? HERE Unemp. rate under Obama? HERE

Friday, August 1, 2014

Jobs Lost Gained Past Year

July 2014 jobs numbers and unemployment reports will be released Friday morning, August 1st.  Please check back Friday morning for this report.  Please check back over the weekend for other graphs, details, and analysis.  

How Many Jobs Have Been Created or Lost Under Obama? July 2014

How many NET jobs created or lost under Obama as of July 2014?  How many private sector jobs have been lost or added during Obama's presidency?

How many new jobs in the last 5 1/2 years since Obama was inaugurated?  
How many Americans were working or employed when Obama took office... compared to now?


Numbers for July with latest revisions:

Since the "trough" of the recession in late 2009/early 2010 in seasonally adjusted numbers:
  • 9.3 million MORE jobs in total
  • 9.9 million MORE private sector jobs
  • 8.3 million MORE people working
How many workers were full-time or part-time at the "trough" of the recession in late 2009/early 2010 compared to now?

  • 7.9 million MORE people working full-time.
  • 591,000 MORE people working part-time.  
  • (Yes, despite what you may have heard, from the depth of the recession until now, we have many more additional people working full-time vs. part-time jobs. When a recession hits, companies generally cut back on full-time workers first.  When companies start hiring again, the number of full-time workers increases.)

Since Bush left office & Obama took office (January 2009) in seasonally adjusted numbers:
  • 5.0 million MORE jobs in total
  • 5.7 million MORE private sector jobs
  • 4.2 million MORE people working

How many workers were full-time or part-time when Obama was inaugurated compared to now?

  • 2.7 million MORE people working full-time
  • 1.7 million MORE people working part-time  







Have any private jobs been lost (net) over the past 53 months since February 2010?
NO!
  • 53 months of consecutive private-sector job growth.

Have any jobs been lost (net) over the past 46 months since September 2010?

NO!
  • 46 months of consecutive overall job growth.
Are more people unemployed now than when Obama took office in January 2009?  
NO!
  • Despite 1,813,000 MORE people in the labor force (either working or actively looking for work) now vs. January 2009, there are 2,387,000 FEWER people unemployed now than in January 2009. 




What's the difference between "net" and "gross" jobs gained and lost?


Let's get something straight:  Jobs are lost every week and every month. People are fired, people are laid off, businesses or locations are closed and everybody is let go. 
 

Also people quit every week.  You yourself, dear reader,  may have quit a job at some point in time. 


But people are also HIRED every week and every month.  New businesses open, businesses expand, businesses replace people who have left or been fired.  Every week.  You yourself, dear reader, may have been hired for a job at some point in time.This happens in good times and bad. 

Yes, even in bad times, people are getting hired.  Even in good times, people are let go.  

Now:  The monthly jobs reportupon which this article is based, presents estimates based on surveys as to how many jobs are gained or lost in a given month.  Those numbers are based on the number of new jobs (people getting hired, businesses opening) MINUS the number of jobs that have been cut (people getting fired, people quitting, businesses closing or cutting back).

The monthly jobs report therefore reports NET job growth or loss.  


For 42 months in this country, we have had MORE jobs being added than we have had jobs being cut.  For 49 months in the private sector (not counting federal workers, state or local workers such as teachers, firemen, cops, or people who staff the DMV, only counting people who work for private businesses), we have had MORE jobs added than we have had jobs being cut.

To reiterate:  How many jobs have been created in the last 5 years versus how many jobs have been lost?
All numbers provided on monthly jobs reports, which is what the series on jobs created/lost under Obama is based, are NET jobs numbers.  In other words, they reflect gains after all job losses are subtracted, or they reflect job losses after all gains are added. 
For the past 50 months (as of July 2014), we have had NET gains in private jobs numbers every month.  In other words, in every month since February 2010, more private jobs have been created than have been lost.  In every month since September 2010, more jobs in total have been created than have been lost.


Fact check and important information on these jobs numbers...

The above jobs numbers are from the BLS jobs report of July 2014, which was released in August 2014.  The surveys used to gather these numbers in July are taken as of the week which includes the 12th day of the month, in this case, July 12, 2014. 

What Was the Unemployment Rate When Obama Took Office (Compared to Now)? July 2014

What was the unemployment rate when Bush left office and Obama was inaugurated? 7.8%


What was the unemployment rate after Obama's first full month in office (February 2009)?  8.3%

What was the unemployment rate at peak?  10.0%

What is today's (July 2014's) unemployment rate?   6.2%  


All Latest Jobs and Unemployment Reports HERE

How many people were looking for work when Obama was inaugurated; how many were working?  And how many people are looking for work and how many are employed now?

Read below the graph.


The following chart shows the unemployment rate in three month intervals plus the last three months:






Why are there two lines, one for "Seas Adjusted" and one for "Unadjusted"?

The Bureau of Labor Statistics uses seasonal adjustments to adjust for the volatility in the labor market from one month to the next.  The relatively even declining red line above shows the unemployment rate based on seasonally adjusted numbers.  The jagged green line shows the unemployment rate based on "real", "raw" numbers; the unadjusted rate.  Notice that the green line goes up in January (after holiday layoffs) and July (school-related layoffs), and it goes down in October and April, which are strong months for workers.  (Employees are all back to school in October, and employers are staffing up for the holidays.  Schools are also full in April and employers are starting to staff up for summer, construction, vacation venues, etc.)  The red line helps us to compare the unemployment rate over a period of months; the green line, however, reflects "reality":  Your friends, neighbors, and family members actually working or not working.  

How Many Jobs Were Created or Lost in July 2014?




In July 2014:
  • 209,000 TOTAL payroll jobs were ADDED in seasonally adjusted numbers.
  • 198,000 PRIVATE payroll sector jobs were ADDED in seasonally adjusted numbers.
  • 11,000 GOVERNMENT (federal, state, and local) jobs were added in June. 
  • 131,000 MORE people employed.
  • 285,000 MORE people employed full-time.
  • 52,000 MORE people employed part-time.
  • 329,000 MORE people in the civilian labor force (people either working or looking for work).
  • 197,000 MORE people unemployed.
  • Unemployment rate clicks up to 6.2% (from 6.1%) primarily due to the more people entering the civilian labor force in July.



July 2014 Unemployment Rate; Jobs

July 2014 Jobs Numbers and Unemployment Rate were released this morning, Friday, August 1, 2014.  Details, analysis, graphs, and reports will be presented throughout the day and over the weekend.

  • A positive jobs report was a "miss"?  This was a good jobs report, with a significant addition of jobs, The BLS reports that 209,000 payroll jobs were added in July.  It was considered a "miss" by some because the number of jobs added was lower than the 231,000 new jobs estimated, even though it is the 4th straight month with job increases exceeding 200,000.  Jobs added per month have averaged 230,000 so far this year, whereas only 194,000 jobs per month were added in 2013.  
  • The unemployment rate increased slightly to 6.2% as 329,000 people joined the labor force.  The number of people employed increased by 131,000 and the number of people unemployed increased by 197,000.  The number of people who lost their jobs decreased by 3,000.
  • Of the additional 197,000 people who were unemployed in July, 144,000 were people re-entering the labor force; that is, people who had been working at some time in the past, had stopped looking for work, and again started to look for work in July.   The number of people who lost their jobs decreased by 3,000. 
  • June jobs numbers were revised upwards by 10,000 to 298,000 and May numbers were revised upwards  by 5,000 to 229,000.  Job growth has averaged 209,000/month over the past 12 months.  
  • Private jobs increased by 198,000.  Construction jobs increased by 8,000; manufacturing jobs increased by 22,000.   Private service-producing jobs increased by 140,000.  Unfortunately, the biggest gains continue to be in lower-paying and temporary areas, such as Retail, Temporary Help Services, and Food Services and Drinking Places.
  • Government jobs increased by 11,000, with 10,200 of those additions in the "Local Government/Non Education" sector.
  • The alternate unemployment rate (which includes part time workers who want full time jobs, discouraged workers, and marginally attached workers) INCREASED by one tenth of a percent to 12.2%, reflecting the increase of 197,000 in the number of unemployed, as well as increases in the number of discouraged workers (+65,000) and the number of other "marginally attached" workers (+84,000).  The number of involuntary part-time workers, however, decreased by 33,000.  One year ago the alternate unemployment rate was 13.9%.  
  • The labor force increased by 329,000 in July.  
  • The number of people employed, including agricultural and self-employed, increased 131,000 in seasonally adjusted numbers in July.  Most of the growth in employment, 87,000, occurred among young people 16 to 24 years of age. As seasonal adjustments usually account for more young people working during the summer, perhaps more people in this age group were able to get summer jobs than in recent previous summers.  Further analysis is needed to determine if this is accurate. 
  • Full-time workers increased by 285,000 in July, while part-time workers decreased 52,000.  Over the past year, the number of full-time workers has increased by 2.3 million and the number of part-time workers has decreased by 110,000. 
  • Since the "trough" of the recession in late 2009/early 2010 in seasonally adjusted numbers:
    • 9.3 million MORE jobs in total
    • 9.9 million MORE private sector jobs
    • 8.3 million MORE people working* 
    Since Bush left office & Obama took office (January 2009) in seasonally adjusted numbers:
    • 5.0 million MORE jobs in total
    • 5.7 million MORE private sector jobs
    • 4.2 million MORE people working*
July 2014 reports to be published: (Notation on the links will be changed to "July" or "Updated for July" when the updated reports become available.) 


The following July Jobs Projections were posted earlier in the week:
  • ADP, the private payroll service, estimated that 218,000 new private sector jobs were created in July, with the biggest gains in trade, transportation, and utilities.  Though the 218,000 new private jobs is less than the 281,000 private jobs estimated for June, it is the 4th month in a row with private employment gains over 200,000.  This is the strongest run of job growth since the recession hit in late 2007/early 2008. ADP numbers are often considered a harbinger for the BLS numbers, usually released two days after the ADP report. First time unemployment claims in early July were lower than they have been since early 2007. Now we wait until tomorrow, Friday, to see what the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) says.
  • From Business Insider: 
  • "Economists estimate nonfarm payrolls increased by 231,000 in July, driven by a 228,000 jump in private payrolls. The unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged at 6.1%. Average hourly earnings is expected to have increased by 2.2% year-over-year. Here's Morgan Stanley's Ted Wieseman, who is estimating 230,000 payrolls: "Jobless claims fell to a seven-year low in the July survey week and then an eight-year low the next week, pointing to the pace of firings continuing to run at historically low levels, and business surveys have been pointing to some pickup in sluggish hiring rates. Consumer confidence surveys have shown rising confidence in job-finding prospects, also consistent with a pickup in hiring but likely to support a higher quit rate. Strength in motor vehicle production, with July assemblies scheduled to rise to an eleven-year high in seasonally adjusted terms, we expect will support an outsized gain in manufacturing payrolls. The rise in employment we’re forecasting would lower then unemployment rate another tenth to 6.0% with a stable labor force participation rate, which is our baseline at this point, assuming the demographic downtrend of 0.2 to 0.3pp per year from the aging of the population is being offset by returning discouraged workers."

Thursday, July 3, 2014

Jobs Lost Gained Past Year

June 2014 jobs numbers and unemployment reports were released Thursday morning, Thursday, July 3rd. 

Jobs Created Lost June 2014




In June 2014:
  • 288,000 TOTAL payroll jobs were ADDED in seasonally adjusted numbers.
  • 262,000 PRIVATE payroll sector jobs were ADDED in seasonally adjusted numbers.
  • 26,000 GOVERNMENT (federal, state, and local) jobs were added in June. 
  • 407,000 MORE people employed.
  • 523,000 FEWER people employed full-time.
  • 799,000 MORE people employed part-time.
  • 81,000 MORE people in the civilian labor force (people either working or looking for work).
  • 325,000 FEWER people unemployed.
  • Unemployment rate drops significantly to 6.1% (from 6.3%) primarily due to the many fewer unemployed people and many MORE employed people in June.

June 2014 jobs numbers and unemployment reports were released Thursday morning, Thursday, July 3rd.  Graphs, details, and analysis will be published Thursday and over the weekend.
 Please check back for latest numbers and charts!