JAN# rlsed Fri, Feb 2: +200,000 jobs.

Unemployment stable at 4.1%...JAN jobs, unemployment rate HERE

Friday, February 2, 2018

January 2018: Job Growth Under Trump?

Jobs Numbers were released today, Friday, February 2, 2018, for January 2018.  This is the 12th month of jobs reports under Trump.   We are still adding jobs, and we added 200,000 jobs in January.


As I said last month, it is a good thing for the people of the country that we are still adding jobs considering the uncertainty and absurdity of many of the President's policies.   Please also be aware that, while tax cuts may cause a short term increase in the number of jobs, they often lead to a recession with loss of jobs a few years down the line.  They also often lead to inflation-adjusted wage erosion.
    
How are we doing compared to the last 5-6 years of the Obama Presidency?
Let's not just look at raw jobs numbers, but let's look at the percentage increase in jobs numbers over six month periods.  That will even out the jobs numbers, which tend to vary quite a bit month to month.  Each bar represents the % increase in jobs over a 6 month period ending in the designated month.  Blue bars represent six month periods during the Obama Presidency; green bars represent six month periods overlapping Obama and Trump Presidencies; red bars represent six month periods during the Trump Presidency.

Here is what job growth has looked like over the past five years when calculated as a percentage increase over any running six month period:
Source:  Change in BLS jobs numbers from chart CES0000000001
over any 6 month period as a %.  (68 = .68% increase in # of jobs.)


January 2018: Unemployment Rate, Jobs


The January 2018 Jobs Report was released by the government's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, Friday, February 2, 2018.  Job growth continued and the unemployment rate remained stable.

  • The report showed an increase of 200,0000 jobs which was slightly more than the 180,000 additional jobs that the pundits expected.
  • The unemployment rate continued at 4.1% for the fourth consecutive month.

January reports (updated as new reports are published):

More reports will be added in the coming hours.  Please check back!


Predictions?


Various prognosticators estimated that around 180,000 new jobs were created in January.  That would be below the monthly average of 204,000 new jobs over the past three months.  


Meanwhile, the payroll processor ADP estimated that we added 234,000 private sector jobs in January.  ADP's estimates have been somewhat higher than the BLS numbers over the last few months.  


Tuesday, January 30, 2018

How Many Jobs Has Trump Created or Lost (December 2017)?

How many NET jobs have been created or lost under Trump as of December 2017? How many private sector jobs have been lost or added during Trump's presidency?

How many new jobs in the last 11 months since Trump was inaugurated?  How many Americans were working or employed when Trump took office... compared to now? 

Since Obama left office & Trump took office (January 2017) in seasonally adjusted numbers:
  • 1,839,000 MORE jobs in total
  • 1,809,000 MORE private sector jobs

Have any private jobs been lost (net) over the past 11 months since January 2017?
NO!

Have any jobs (in total) been lost (net) over the past 
11 months since January 2017?
NO!

Are more people unemployed now than when Trump took office in January 2017?  
NO!


Trump State of the Union: Job Growth? Thanks Obama!

Private Sector Job Growth under Trump (green bar) and over the past 10 years: 



It has continued, but NOT accelerated under Trump. If he pretends that it is, he is lying. 





Not only that but let's look at another complaint by the Trump Republicans about the Obama economy:

People not in the labor force

The Republicans complained and complained and complained about the number of people not in the labor force, a number that include people (over 16) who are retired, who are students, who are home with children.  When Obama left office, that number was approximately 94 million.  Now that number is well over 95 million... Not a peep about "people not working" from the Republicans.

Obama Jobs Legacy?  HERE 

Friday, January 5, 2018

December 2017: How is job growth under Trump?

Jobs Numbers were released for December 2017 on Friday, January 5, 2018.  This is the 11th month of jobs reports under Trump.   We are still adding jobs, and we added 148,000 jobs in December (seasonally adjusted, meaning that holiday hiring is taken into account.)




It is a good thing for the people of the country that we are still adding jobs considering the uncertainty and absurdity of many of the President's policies. 


How are we doing compared to the last 5-6 years of the Obama Presidency?

Let's not just look at raw jobs numbers, but let's look at the percentage increase in jobs numbers over six month periods.  That will even out the jobs numbers, which tend to vary quite a bit month to month.  Each bar represents the % increase in jobs over a 6 month period.

Here is what job growth has looked like over the past five years when calculated as a percentage increase over any running six month period:
Source:  Change in BLS jobs numbers from chart CES0000000001
over any 6 month period as a %.  (68 = .68% increase in # of jobs.)

December 2017 Unemployment Rate, Jobs

The December 2017 Jobs Report was released by the government's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, Friday, January 5, 2018.  Job growth slowed and the unemployment rate remained stable.

  • The report showed an increase of 148,000 jobs which was a drop after November's increase of 252,000 jobs.
  • The unemployment rate continued at 4.1% for the third consecutive month.

Other December 2017 Job Report Highlights: 
  • In 2017, we added about 2.0 million jobs; slightly less than the 2.2 million jobs we added in 2016.
  • Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 204,000 per month.  Over the past 12 months, job gains have averaged  171,000 per month.
  • The number of employed people increased by 104,000 in the month; the number of employed people increased by 1,788,000 over the year.
  • The number of unemployed people DECREASED by  40,000 even as 64,000 people joined the labor force during the month.
  • The number of unemployed people decreased by 926,000 over the year even as 861,000 people joined the labor force.  (You don't have to be receiving unemployment benefits to be counted as unemployed; you merely need to be looking for work.)
  • 35,000 FEWER people are working full-time and 119,000 MORE  people were working part-time in December vs. November in seasonally-adjusted numbers.
  • Compared to December 2016, 2,422,000 MORE people are working full-time and 633,000  FEWER people are working part-time using seasonally adjusted numbers. 
  • The alternate unemployment rate (U-6) increased slightly to 8.1% this month.  A year ago the U-6 rate was 9.1%.
  • The Labor Force participation rate has been VERY stable since 2014, varying between 62.4% and 63%.  It was 62.7% in December 2017, exactly the same as it was in December 2016.
  • Remember that there is NO ideal labor force size, and most of the overall decrease in the labor force participation RATE over the last few years has been due to Baby Boomers retiring in great numbers.

Revisions from the last BLS report: 
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for October was revised down from +244,000 to +211,000, and the change for November was revised up from +228,000 to +252,000. With these revisions, employment gains in October and November combined were 9,000 less than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.) After revisions, job gains have averaged 204,000 over the last 3 months. 
  • Job Growth Under Trump?  HERE 
  • Obama's final jobs numbers HERE.
  • Trump's million jobs:  Good or bad? HERE

Other December 2017 reports will be added and indexed here as they become available over the next hours and days.  Please check back!