July #: +215,000, Unemp rate stable at 5.3%. July details here... Jobs since Obama took office?... Unemp. rate under Obama?

Friday, August 7, 2015

How Many Jobs Has Obama Created or Lost? (Updated for July 2015)

How many NET jobs created or lost under Obama* as of July 2015? How many private sector jobs have been lost or added during Obama's presidency?


How many new jobs in the last 6 years since Obama was inaugurated?  How many Americans were working or employed when Obama took office... compared to now?

Continue below.....

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July 2015 numbers were released Friday, August 7.  Reports listed HERE.
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July 2015 Unemployment Rate, Jobs

July 2015 Highlights:





  • +215,000 total new payroll jobs; +210,000 new private sector jobs; a 5,000 increase in the number of government jobs.)  These numbers are slightly less than what the pundits and prognosticators predicted. 
  • The BLS increased its May estimate slightly to 260,000 from 254,000 and it increased its June estimate slightly from 221,000 to 231,000.
  • The unemployment rate stayed the same at 5.3% as the number of unemployed stayed virtually the same at 8,266,000 (from 8,299,000 in June), continuing to hit new lows since the big recession began in 2007-2008 when we had a much smaller labor force.
  • Alternate unemployment rate fell from 10.5% down to 10.4%.  That decrease reflected a decrease in the number of people who were unemployed more than 15 weeks and a decrease in the number of people who were working part-time involuntarily because they couldn't find full-time jobs.  
  • Labor force participation rate stayed the same at 62.6%.  The number of people in the labor force increased slightly by 69,000.   Year over year, we have about 1.1 million MORE people in the labor force.  

    Remember that there is NO ideal labor force size. 

    Actually, inflation-adjusted wages have tended to go up when the labor force participation rate goes down--- Just something to think about if you are one of the many who has been bulldozed by the "Labor force percentage.. .yada, yada, yada..." crowd.  More HERE about the labor force percentage.  
  • The reported number of people employed increased by 101,000, the reported number of people unemployed decreased by 33,000. 
  • The number of people working full-time increased by 536,000 last month; the number of people working part-time decreased by about 402,000 last month.  Year over year, we have about 3.1 million MORE people working full-time and 700,000 FEWER people working part-time.

    Since the "trough" of the recession in late 2009/early 2010 in seasonally adjusted numbers:
    • 12.4 million MORE jobs in total
    • 13.0 million MORE private sector jobs
    • 10.8 million MORE people working
    • 11 million MORE people working full-time.
    • 200,000 MORE people working part-time.  
    • (Yes, despite what you may have heard, from the depth of the recession until now, we have many more additional people working full-time vs. people working part-time jobs. When a recession hits, companies generally cut back on full-time workers first.  When companies start hiring again, the number of full-time workers increases.)



  • Since Bush left office & Obama took office (January 2009) in seasonally adjusted numbers:

  • 8.1 million MORE jobs in total
  • 8.8 million MORE private sector jobs
  • 6.7 million MORE people working
  • 5.8 million MORE people working full-time
  • 200,000 FEWER people working part-time


July 2015 reports: (As usual, notation on the links will be changed to "UPDATED for JULY" when the updated reports become available.  Not all reports are updated every month.) 

July 2015 Jobs Numbers Preview as of Thursday night, August 6:

This will be a short preview as I did spend quite a bit of time watching the Republican debates this evening.   The pundits and prognosticators are predicting decent, but not blockbuster, jobs numbers for July when the BLS releases that report tomorrow morning, Friday, August 7, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time.

See you all in the morning!


1.  Reuters:  Reuters conducts a survey of economists and reports the consensus:.

The number of U.S. jobs probably rose at a healthy pace in July and wages likely rebounded in data due on Friday, providing further signs of an improving economy that could allow the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in September.



A Reuters survey of economists forecast U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 223,000 last month, matching June's job gains, a number which would be slightly above the monthly average for the first half of the year.



Though the pace of hiring has slowed from last year, it remains double the rate needed to keep up with population growth. The Labor Department will release its closely watched employment report on Friday at 8:30 a.m.
The unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at a seven-year low of 5.3 percent, near the 5.0 percent to 5.2 percent range most Fed officials think is consistent with a steady but low level of inflation.
2. ADP: The private payroller ADP's report, which usually precedes the BLS report by two days, was disappointing.  ADP estimated that only 185,000 more private-sector jobs were created in July 2015.  ADP estimated increases in all sectors, with the fattest increase in professional and business services.

3.  The June Consumer Sentiment index compiled by the University of Michigan  showed a decline from 96.1 in June to 93.1 in July.  However, the Sentiment Index has increased 14% over the past year.  
Consumer confidence slipped a bit in the July 2015 survey. A disappointing pace of economic growth was the main reason for the small decline in consumer confidence. Nonetheless, the data provide no indication of a break in the prevailing positive trend. Indeed, the Sentiment Index has averaged 94.5 since December 2014, the highest eight month average since 2004. Although one-in-ten consumers, when asked to identify any recent economic developments they had heard, referred negatively to Greece, the Chinese economy, and the Trans-Pacific Partnership on trade, it had virtually no impact on the Sentiment Index. The maintenance of confidence at high levels during the past eight months has been mainly due to modestly positive news on jobs and wages.
 4.  The jobs report by the search engine Linkup.com was higher than the other projections.  A lot of information in that report; if you are a numbers geek, you may find a side trip over to the Link up blog very interesting indeed:  


Based on the 11% and 17% increases in job openings on LinkUp in May and June respectively, we are forecasting a strong jobs report for Friday with a net gain of 310,000 jobs. 

5.  Finally, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits AND the number of Americans filing for continuing benefits continue to be very, very low.  The unadjusted number of new claims for the week ending August 1st was the LOWEST number of new claims since...  late 1973....   when we had many fewer people working.  Wow.  You can see more here at the Department of Labor's site.

Friday, July 10, 2015

Social Security: Don't Raise the Retirement Age, Jeb!

Should we raise the retirement age for Social Security? Aren't we living longer?


(I originally wrote this in July 2011, four years ago.  I have made only minor changes in format; everything is still true in July 2015.) 
Found at the Nation of Change blog.
Some people, concerned about the financial future of Social Security and concerned about the national debt, are suggesting (again) that the retirement age be raised. They say that we now live 16 years longer than we did when Social Security was first implemented; therefore, we can certainly raise the retirement age a few years.

Except that this is not really true.


Life expectancy at birth vs. additional life expectancy at a given age: Two different things.

That 16 year difference is based on life expectancy at birth, which has gone up about 16 years since the late 30's. But, for people who survive birth and young adulthood and make it to 60, their life expectancy has not increased that much.

People who live to be 65 now only have about 4 or 5 more years of life expectancy than people who lived to be 65 back when Social Security was established. And we've already raised the retirement age by two of those years!

When they raised the retirement age in the 1980's-- 

We last raised the retirement age in the early 80's for those born in 1938 or later. The people these changes were going to hit, the Baby Boomers and the WWII kids, were decades away from Social Security at the time. 


When they raised the retirement age in the 80's...

We need the younger people to realize that you don't stay young forever. When they raised the retirement age a couple of decades back in the 80s,few Baby Boomers made a peep because we were strong, young, healthy, and thought we would keep our high-payin­g jobs forever. Hah!

Now many Baby Boomers have been hit hard by the recession. Some are among the saddest victims. These older people in their 50's and 60's have been tossed out of work after decades of fruitful labor. Many are experiencing long-term unemployme­nt; many have gone through their savings and 401K's and don't have health insurance. 

Those extra years until full retirement are weighing heavily on many of us. Retiring with full benefits at 65 is now just a dream.

What is our "life expectancy" these days? 

So, with that in mind, let's look at the numbers on life expectancy.

Based on tables found at Infoplease, which are based on data taken from the US Census Bureau, the additional life expectancy of a 60 year old in the mid 2000's is somewhere between four and seven years more than it was in the late 30's.

Two Extra Years, Not 16

For 70 year olds, the additional life expectancy is between two and six more years now than it was in the 30's when Social Security was establishe­d. What this means is that, in the late 30's, someone in their mid 60's could expect to live to about age 78, give or a take a year or two depending on sex and race. Now (data from the mid 2000's), someone in their mid 60's can expect to live to live to about 82 or 83, give or take a year or two depending on sex and race. That's a difference of 4 to 5 years, and we've already raised the retirement age by 2 of those years. So that means that people now have, on average, TWO ADDITIONAL YEARS of living after they qualify for full retirement than people did in the 30's. TWO YEARS, not 16. 

And then there are those "extra workable years": 

Also, these figures don't account for extra "workable" years. People may be living two years longer than the retirement age than they were in the 30's, but that doesn't mean that people are able to work for two more years. 35% of people over 65 are considered disabled, but it is safe to assume that many of the other 65% of people over 65 have minor disabilities that would make it difficult for them to work full-time demanding jobs... and also make them less desirable for employers.

Finding a job after 65? 

Those figures also don't account for the simple fact that older people can't get hired. People over 65 have a low (about 3.9% as of June 2015) unemployme­nt rate, but that is because so few of them are in the work force (less than 19%).  And 40% of those 65+ who do work are working part-time.  Could they really find full-time jobs and actually perform the required work?

Seniors will go without income for years before they can collect.

Raising the retirement age, even a year or two, really isn't practical, and it will leave many seniors without any income for years before they can collect social security. 

But Jeb Bush and the Republicans? 

But many Republicans couldn't give one hoot about that now, could they? They already consider Social Security an "entitlement" and that Social Security recipients are "takers" instead of "makers". If Grandma hasn't saved enough and "planned" well enough to allow her to survive without the "governmen­t dole", she deserves whatever she gets. Charming people, aren't they?

O.K., people: Write your Congresspeople; write the President; write the Presidential candidates.

Hang tough. Don't let them mess with Social Security and Medicare!

Thursday, July 2, 2015

What Was the Unemployment rate when Obama took office and Bush left office? (Updated for June 2015)



What was the unemployment rate when Bush left office and Obama was inaugurated and took office? What was the unemployment rate when Obama came into office?  7.8%


(Unemployment rate then and now on the graph below.)



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July 2015 numbers to be released Friday, August 7.  Details HERE.
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What was the unemployment rate after Obama's first full month in office (February 2009)?  8.3%

What was the unemployment rate at peak?  10.0%


What is the unemployment rate now?  Today's unemployment rate (June 2015's)?   5.3%  


All Latest Jobs and Unemployment Reports HERE

How many people were looking for work when Obama was inaugurated; how many were working?  And how many people are looking for work and how many are employed now?

Please read below the graph.


The following chart shows the unemployment rate in three month intervals plus the last three months:







Why are there two lines, one for "Seas Adjusted" and one for "Unadjusted" in the chart above?  This is explained at the bottom of the article.
  • What Caused the Rise in Unemployment When Obama Took Office?  Obama caused the unemployment rate to rise?  (Continue reading; the answer  is below the fold.)
  •  What Was the Unemployment Rate When Bush Took Office?  How high did it rise?  (The answer is also below the fold.)  


How Many Jobs Has Obama Created or Lost? (Updated for June 2015)

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July 2015 update for THIS REPORT found HERE.

July 2015 numbers were released Friday, August 7.  Details HERE.
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How many NET jobs created or lost under Obama* as of June 2015? 
How many private sector jobs have been lost or added during Obama's presidency?


How many new jobs in the last 6 years since Obama was inaugurated?  How many Americans were working or employed when Obama took office... compared to now?

Continue below.....


Since the "trough" of the recession in late 2009/early 2010 in seasonally adjusted numbers:
  • 12,193,000 MORE payroll jobs in total
  • 12,759,000 MORE private sector jobs
  • 10,726,000 MORE people working (includes self-employed and agricultural workers)
How many workers were full-time or part-time at the "trough" of the recession in late 2009/early 2010 compared to now?

  • 10,494,000 MORE people working full-time.
  • 188,000 MORE people working part-time.  
  • (Yes, despite what you may have heard, from the depth of the recession until now, we have many more additional people working full-time vs. part-time jobs. When a recession hits, companies generally cut back on full-time workers first.  When companies start hiring again, the number of full-time workers increases.)

Since Bush left office & Obama took office (January 2009) in seasonally adjusted numbers:
  • 7,865,000 MORE jobs in total
  • 8,534,000 MORE private sector jobs
  • 6,587,000 MORE people working

How many workers were full-time or part-time when Obama was inaugurated compared to now?

  • 5,235,000 MORE people working full-time
  • 1,290,000 MORE people working part-time



Have any private jobs been lost (net) over the past 64 months since February 2010?

NO!
  • 64 months of consecutive private-sector job growth.
  • The longest consecutive period of private-sector job increases since this number has been recorded. 
  • ALL jobs losses since the recession (January 2008 was the prior peak of jobs) have been made up, added back, or recovered.

Have any jobs been lost (net) over the past 57 months since September 2010?
NO!
  • 57 months of consecutive overall job growth.

Are more people unemployed now than when Obama took office in January 2009?  
NO!
  • Despite 2,827,000 MORE people in the labor force (either working or actively looking for work) now vs. January 2009, there are 3,759,000 FEWER people unemployed now than in January 2009. 


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June 2015 numbers were released Thursday, July 2.
Details HERE. 
June: +223,000 jobs, Unemp. Rate down to 5.3%.


*What's the difference between "net" and "gross" jobs gained and lost?


Let's get something straight:  Jobs are lost every week and every month. People are fired, people are laid off, businesses or locations are closed and everybody is let go. 
 

Also people quit every week.  You yourself, dear reader,  may have quit a job at some point in time. 

But people are also HIRED every week and every month.  New businesses open, businesses expand, businesses replace people who have left or been fired.  Every week.  You yourself, dear reader, may have been hired for a job at some point in time. This happens in good times and bad

Yes, even in bad times, people are getting hired.  Even in good times, people are let go.  

Now:  The monthly jobs reportupon which this article is based, presents estimates based on surveys as to how many jobs are gained or lost in a given month.  Those numbers are based on the number of new jobs (people getting hired, businesses opening) MINUS the number of jobs that have been cut (people getting fired, people quitting, businesses closing or cutting back).

The monthly jobs report therefore reports NET job growth or loss.  

For 57 months in this country, we have had MORE jobs being added than we have had jobs being cut.  For 64 months in the private sector (not counting federal workers, state or local workers such as teachers, firemen, cops, or people who staff the DMV, only counting people who work for private businesses), we have had MORE jobs added than we have had jobs being cut.

To reiterate:  How many jobs have been created in the last 6 years versus how many jobs have been lost?
All numbers provided on monthly jobs reports, which is what the series on jobs created/lost under Obama is based, are NET jobs numbers.  In other words, they reflect gains after all job losses are subtracted, or they reflect job losses after all gains are added.  The numbers above reflect job gains after all job losses have been subtracted. 
For the past 64 months (as of June 2015), we have had NET gains in private jobs numbers every month.  In other words, in every month since February 2010, more private jobs have been created than have been lost.  In every month since September 2010, more jobs in total have been created than have been lost.  This is the longest consecutive period of job growth since these numbers have been recorded.

Fact check and important information on these jobs numbers...

The above jobs numbers are from the BLS jobs report of June 2015, which was released in early July 2015.  The surveys used to gather these numbers are taken as of the week which includes the 12th day of the month, in this case, June 12, 2015. 

Jobs Created, Lost June 2015

How Many Jobs Were Created (Gained) or Lost by firms, companies, or government employers in the U.S. in June 2015?


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July 2015 numbers to be released Friday, August 7.  Details HERE.
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  • 223,000 TOTAL payroll jobs were ADDED or CREATED in seasonally adjusted numbers.  This number was slightly less than what was projected.
  • 223,000 PRIVATE payroll sector jobs were ADDED or CREATED in seasonally adjusted numbers.
  • ZERO GOVERNMENT (federal, state, and local) jobs were ADDED or CREATED in June. 
  • 56,000 FEWER people working.
  • 349,000 FEWER people employed full-time. 
  • 161,000 MORE people employed part-time.
  • 47,000 FEWER people employed part-time involuntarily.  (In other words, people who want full-time work but can only find part-time work.)  This number has generally been going down, even when the total number of people working part-time has increased.  This means that, of people working part-time this month, in JUNE, fewer were working part-time because they couldn't find a full-time job.  But in the past year, the number of people employed part-time involuntarily, because they couldn't find a full-time job, has decreased by 991,000.
  • 375,000 FEWER people unemployed.
  • Unemployment rate decreased two-tenths of a point to 5.3%.  This was actually a good sized decrease, from 5.51% down to 5.28%.
  • The alternate unemployment rate also decreased significantly, from 10.8% to 10.5%. 
  • 432,000 FEWER people in the civilian labor force (people either working or looking for work).  The drop in the size of the labor force appears to be due to people who STOPPED WORKING and left the labor force, and considering the time of the year, it would be a good guess that a big chunk of the people who stopped working and left the labor force were retiring teachers and educators.  What happened to the labor force in JUNE?  Continue reading below...

In NET numbers, NO jobs were lost in JUNE 2015. 

If there are jobs losses, that means that there are fewer new jobs, fewer people being hired, than people being fired or jobs being cut.  If there are jobs gains, that means that there are MORE new jobs, MORE people being hired, than people being fired or jobs being cut. 


Every month since September 2010, we have had more new jobs created than jobs lost.  This is the longest period of consecutive job growth since these records have been kept.
  

The size of the Labor Force declined in June.  Did people leave the labor force in despair, discouragement, and misery?

The labor force in the United States is huge and volatile.  Millions of people enter and leave the labor force every month in the United States; you can find more specifics HERE. 


But here's what happened to people in June:

  • In May, there were 157,469,000 people in the civilian labor force.
  • 2,076,000 who were not in the labor force in May entered the labor force and started LOOKING FOR WORK in June.
  • 4,314,000 who were not in the labor force in May entered the labor force and started WORKING in June. 
  • Meanwhile, 2,149,000 people who had been looking for work in May STOPPED LOOKING FOR WORK and left the labor force in June.  This is the smallest number of unemployed people who "dropped out" of the labor force in June since 2008.  
  • And 4,756,000 people who had been employed in May STOPPED WORKING (and were not looking for work) in June.  A big chunk of these people are probably retiring Baby Boomers, in June, probably teachers, though we don't know that for sure.  This is the largest number of employed people who stopped working and left the labor force EVER.  
  • So far in 2015, we have had more people on average per month who have stopped working and left the labor force than ever before, and this number grew by 362,000 since May.  69% of the people who left the labor force in June were previously EMPLOYED, not people who were looking for work and "gave up" in despair.  
  • For every unemployed person who "gave up" for some reason and stopped looking for work and left the labor force, there were over TWO EMPLOYED people who left their jobs and left the labor force.
     
  • For every unemployed person who "gave up" for some reason and stopped looking for work, approximately THREE people (2.97) ENTERED the labor force and either started looking for work or started working.  This is the highest percentage of people who entered the labor force compared to unemployed people "dropping out" in June since 2008. 
  • These numbers, plus adjustments for relatively small numbers of people turning 16, people dying, people leaving or entering the country, resulted in a slightly smaller labor force of 157,037,000 in June.  This is the largest labor force that we have EVER had in any June of any year.  There are still about 1,337,000 more people in the labor force this June than a year ago.   

As usual, the numbers in any one month need to be taken with a grain of salt, as any movements in any one month are not necessarily meaningful trends.  However, trends that continue over a period of months are meaningful.

However, we have now had 64 consecutive months of private sector job creation, a record as long as such numbers have been kept.   And we have now had 57 consecutive months of total job creation, a record as long as such numbers have been kept. 

But how many jobs were LOST in JUNE?

All jobs numbers reported monthly by Bureau of Labor Statistics are NET jobs numbers.  In other words, they represent the number of jobs gained (newly created jobs) after all job losses are subtracted.  If there are job gains, that means that there are more new jobs, more people being hired, than people being fired or jobs being cut. 

The more specific numbers of new hires and number of jobs cut are detailed in the monthly Job Openings, Layoffs, and Turnover Survey (JOLTS) which is published about six weeks after the monthly jobs reports.  This link "How Many People were fired in 2014?" provides a more in-depth explanation of how many people lose their jobs and how many people get new jobs every month.  For example, in 2014 over 55,000 people were fired or laid off on average each DAY... but an average of 160,000 people were HIRED each DAY in 2014.

To Summarize:  

In summary, there are more newly-created payroll jobs and more people employed in June, about as many jobs as were predicted.  There was a small decrease in the number of employed people, and the number of people working full-time decreased.  The number of people working part-time by choice increased; the number of people working part-time involuntarily decreased.  


The unemployment rate declined as many people entered the labor force and started either working or looking for work, and as people left the labor force.  The number of employed people decreased slightly.

The size of the labor force declined moderately; however, an analysis of the flows data seems to indicate that the drop in the size of the labor force may have been mostly due to employed people, probably teachers, who retired in June.