February 2018: Job Growth Under Trump

Jobs Numbers were released today, Friday, March 9, 2018, for February 2018.  This is the 13th month of jobs reports under Trump.   We are still adding jobs, and we added 313,000 jobs in February.

(Jobs reports for February 2018 can be found HERE.)

I will repeat from last month that it is a good thing for the people of the country that we are still adding jobs considering the uncertainty and absurdity of many of the President's policies.   Please also be aware that, while tax cuts may cause a short term increase in the number of jobs, they often lead to a recession with loss of jobs a few years down the line.  They also often lead to inflation-adjusted wage erosion.  We also don't know the impact of the tariffs which have just been announced in the last week, but large tariffs, particularly when enacted using a cudgel vs. a scapel, also tend to lead to recession and job loss.

How are we doing compared to the last 5-6 years of the Obama Presidency?
Let's not just look at raw jobs numbers, but let's look at the percentage increase in jobs numbers over six month periods.  That will even out the jobs numbers, which tend to vary quite a bit month to month.  Each bar represents the % increase in jobs over a 6 month period ending in the designated month.  Blue bars represent six month periods during the Obama Presidency; green bars represent six month periods overlapping Obama and Trump Presidencies; red bars represent six month periods during the Trump Presidency.

Here is what job growth has looked like over the past five years when calculated as a percentage increase over any running six month period:
    

Source:  Change in BLS jobs numbers from chart CES0000000001
over any 6 month period as a %.  (68 = .68% increase in # of jobs.)

You will have to click on the graph to really see it, but compare the red sticks on the right (job growth under Trump) with the green and blue sticks.  Job growth has been slowing slightly since 2015.  Job growth is perhaps slightly lower but not any better under the Trump administration than it was during the five month transition period (green sticks) or the Obama years (blue sticks) displayed on this graph.  

What does the future hold for job growth under Trump? 

We really don't know.  We know that job growth is usually better under Democratic administrations, but  there's nothing predictive there.  Basically, though, Trump crows about job growth... but, compared to the last years of the Obama administration, it really isn't that great (so far) or that special, even with the 313,000 jobs added in February.