AUG#: +130,000 jobs.

Unemployment up at 3.7%...AUG jobs under Trump HERE

Friday, November 3, 2017

October 2017 Jobs Preview

Big jump expected!  

It seems as though September jobs numbers were released eons ago, and mediocre jobs numbers they were.  In fact, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, we actually LOST 33,000 jobs in September, the first time that has happened in the United States since 2010.

The Big But.. (please read below)

BUT most economists thought that the big reason for the drop in jobs in September were the three massive hurricanes that caused so much trouble for Texas, Florida, and Puerto Rico in the late August through September time frame.  If so that would mean that jobs numbers should have bounced back in October... Well, tomorrow morning we will see!

The jobs pundits are forecasting anywhere from 300,000 to 325,000 new jobs in October... still an average for the two months of September/October of a mediocre 130,000 to 135,000.  There is also a good chance that jobs numbers for September will be adjusted upwards.  Many areas of Florida and Puerto Rico were not able to report jobs numbers at all in September, as jobs numbers are reported as of the week containing the 12th day of the month... Right smack dab during hurricane time.

The ADP harbinger of jobs numbers:

The payroll processor ADP released its monthly report of private job growth on Wednesday, October 31st, and they estimate an additional 235,000 private sector jobs were added in October.. not as many as have been estimated by other jobs forecasters but still good, steady job growth.

But ADP did estimate an increase of 22,000 manufacturing jobs, and an average addition of 12,000 manufacturing jobs per month over the last 6 months, a bit lower than the average addition of manufacturing jobs under Obama in the 2014-2015 timeframe, and a slight decrease from the 6 month average increase of mfg jobs earlier this year. 

So we will be waiting at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time tomorrow to see what the jobs Gods at the BLS tell us!

Preview reading:

CNBC: Big rebound in October jobs expected after hurricanes hit September hiring

CNN: What to look for in Friday's jobs report

Wall Street Journal: Five Things to Watch in the October Jobs Report

Forex: NFP due Friday US time - previews

Forex: Barclay's Preview

Marketwatch: Get ready for a huge jump in October payrolls

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