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Sunday, October 7, 2012

873,000 More People Employed: Largest Increase in Number of People Employed in a September EVER


October Jobs Numbers Have Been Released:
October 2012 Jobs Reports Summary

Now the conspiracy theorists and people like Jack Welch (and perhaps even Mitt Romney?) will go even nuttier than they already have gone (if that is even possible):


873,000 MORE people (in adjusted numbers) are employed in September vs. August. (775,000 MORE people are employed in September vs. August in UNadjusted "raw" numbers.)


This is the
LARGEST increase in the number of people employed in the month of SEPTEMBER EVER (since numbers are available, going back to 1948.) 



I'll repeat that:  We have never, as far back as 1948, EVER added more than  873,000 people employed in the month of September.  Not ever.   (This is also true in unadjusted numbers as we added 775,000 people employed in those "raw" numbers.  

The number of people employed in September 2012 went up in every age group:

  • 16-17 year olds:  +41,000  
  • 16-19 year olds:  +81,000 
  • 20-24 year olds:  +368,000
  • 16-24 year olds:  +448,000  
  • 25-34 year olds:  +260,000
  • 35-44 year olds:  +83,000
  • 45-54 year olds:  +35,000
  • 55+ year olds:     +40,000



To make this worse (for the Republicans):

  • This is one of the best years for increases of people reported as employed in the first 9 months of the year*.  2,184,000 more people have claimed employment since December 2011.  Other years in which this many more people have claimed employment in the first 9 months of the year include 2005, 2000, 1996, 1994, 1987, and 1984.  Not many more.
  • That increase is in seasonally adjusted numbers.  In non-seasonally adjusted "raw" numbers, improvements in the number of people employed in the first 9 months of the year are even better:  We have never added as many employed people (an additional 2,652,000) in the first nine months of the year (in unadjusted numbers) since the halcyon Reagan year of 1984 when 2,938,000 employed people were added from January through September.
  • Year over year, things just get better for people (and worse for Republicans):  2,867,000 MORE people are now employed vs. a year ago, September 2011.  This is the BEST year-over-year improvement in employment since 2005, when 2,914,000 MORE people claimed employment from September 2004 until September 2005.         

Now the Republicans are complaining that somehow the data is "skewed" or just plain manipulated.  



I'm not surprised.  I wrote last month that I thought there were many good things is the supposedly-dismal August jobs report.  I felt that the drop in employment in August, exclusively among the 16-24 year olds, was exaggerated by the vagaries of the calendar.  I feel that at least some of this huge increase this month is a ricochet from that big decrease last month.  Many young people stopped working in mid-August, returned to school and have now found jobs.  That doesn't explain all of the additional workers in other age groups, but it would take this month from a "normal recovery" increase in employment to a humongous increase in employment.



But that doesn't explain the huge increase in employment across the board for every age group, nor would it explain that huge jump in the number of people employed year over year, 2,867,000 more workers, from September 2011 to September 2012.  This year-over-year jump in employment extends across all age groups*:

  • 16-24 year olds:   +454,000
  • 25-34 year olds:   +161,000
  • 35-44 year olds:   +571,000
  • 45-54 year olds:   +140,000
  • 55+ year olds:     +1,487,000  

But They Are All Part-time Workers.....not! 

Let's put a stop to any discussion of "they are part-time jobs" now:

Month over month, from August 2012 to September 2012, the number of full-time workers went up by 838,000 while the number of part-time workers went down 26,000. 

Year over year, from September 2011 to September 2012, we have added 2,747,000 more full-time employed people.. and only 91,000 part-time employed people. 

Here's the breakdown of the new employees in seasonally adjusted numbers:
  1. +58,000 more agricultural employees
  2. +187,000 more government workers (These appear to be an increase in teachers.)
  3. +118,000 more self-employed workers.
  4. +253,000 more private sector workers.
Because of seasonal adjustments, the above numbers do not add up to 873,000.  



Maybe September is an outlier.. but...

So.. yep, well perhaps this month is an "outlier" and the unemployment rate will bounce back up next month.  But the overall trend in the number of people employed is very strongly positive.. We can dismiss the September numbers.. But all of the numbers from September 2011 until now?



More tomorrow about the number of people employed and how that balances with the "jobs" numbers.  I'll see if I can toss in a graph or two. 



Update 10/8/2012:  

I forgot about the Census:
Some of the variance year over year (and for the first 9 months of the year) is due to Census variations, which I had forgotten.  Adjustments were made to all CPS databases in January 2012 to account for an increase in the population discerned by the results of the 2010 census.  As a result, the year over year tally of the number of employed people on the CPS databases was increased by about 216,000.
However, when I  compare the change in employment from September back through January of the same year, AFTER the Census adjustments, 2012 is a good year in the range of 2005 and 2006.  
 More about all of this later...

2 comments:

  1. Thank you for the FACTS...excellent post! Puts things in perspective...

    ReplyDelete
  2. This is good and all, but where do you get the numbers from? Could you please include links to the official studies that give these numbers?

    ReplyDelete

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