AUG: +151,000 jobs. Unemployment rate steady at 4.9%. AUG details here!.. Jobs since Obama took office?... Unemp. rate under Obama?

Tuesday, October 9, 2012

How Many Jobs Created or Lost Under Obama? (September update)

Fact check on jobs numbers...


The first section of numbers do NOT include the numbers with the benchmark revisions which were announced September 27, 2012.   The benchmark revisions will NOT be included in the official BLS data until January 2013.  The second set of numbers DO include the benchmark revisions.  Benchmark revisions added 386,000 jobs in total and 453,000 private sector jobs.  Information about these revisions can be found HERE.



Numbers for September WITHOUT benchmark revisions:


How many jobs created or lost under Obama?

NO jobs have been lost (net) under Obama.  NONE. See below for detail.
 

How many private sector jobs have been lost or added during Obama's presidency?

Continue below for detail.


Since the "trough" of the recession in late 2009/early 2010:

  • 4,256,000 MORE jobs in total
  • 4,727,000 MORE private sector jobs
  • 5,063,000 MORE people working 
Since Bush left office & Obama took office (January 2009):
  • 61,000 FEWER jobs in total 
But:
  • 514,000 MORE private sector jobs
  • 787,000 MORE people working

Since the stimulus was passed (# as of March 12, 2009): 
  • 1,462,000 MORE jobs in total
  • 2,026,000 MORE private sector jobs
  • 2,220,000 MORE people working

Since the beginning of Obama's first Fiscal Year (October 2009): 
  • 3,766,000 MORE jobs in total
  • 4,199,000 MORE private sector jobs
  • 4,573,000 MORE people working

Have any private jobs been lost (net) over the past 31 months?
NO!
  • 31 months of consecutive private-sector job growth.

Have any jobs been lost (net) over the past 24 months?
NO!
  • 24 months of consecutive over all job growth.


Numbers for September WITH benchmark revisions:

How many jobs created or lost under Obama?
How many private sector jobs have been lost or added during Obama's presidency?

Since the "trough" of the recession in late 2009/early 2010:
  • 4,642,000 MORE jobs in total
  • 5,180,000 MORE private sector jobs
  • 5,063,000 MORE people working 

Since Bush left office & Obama took office (January 2009):
  • 325,000 MORE jobs in total
  • 967,000 MORE private sector jobs
  • 787,000 MORE people working

Since the stimulus was passed (# as of March 12, 2009): 
  • 1,848,000 MORE jobs in total
  • 2,479,000 MORE private sector jobs
  • 2,220,000 MORE people working

Since the beginning of Obama's first Fiscal Year (October 2009): 

  • 4,152,000 MORE jobs in total
  • 4,718,000 MORE private sector jobs
  • 4,573,000 MORE people working

Have any private jobs been lost (net) over the past 31 months?
NO!
  • 31 months of consecutive private-sector job growth.

Have any jobs been lost (net) over the past 24 months?

NO!
  • 24 months of consecutive over all job growth.

(Explanations and detail below.  Keep reading.)





How many jobs have been lost or gained during the Obama administration?  Have more new jobs been created or have more jobs been lost under Obama to date?   

Summary:  

We are in positive territory when we look at total jobs numbers, private jobs numbers, and people working compared to the "trough" of the jobs recession in late 2009/early 2010.

We are also in positive territory when we look at total jobs numbers, private jobs numbers, and people working compared to the start of Obama's first Fiscal Year in office which started October 1, 2009.

 
When we look at the BLS benchmark revisions, we are in positive territory in terms of total jobs numbers, numbers of people working, and private sector jobs, both since Obama took office.  The only negative is the comparison of total jobs since Obama took office in the numbers that have not yet been adjusted for the benchmarks, however, we know we have more jobs than the unrevised numbers show.  It is unfortunate that those numbers are not added to the jobs numbers now instead of in January.   


We are now adding jobs at a fair clip, with an average of 169,000 MORE jobs  total added per month since December 2010 with the revised benchmarked data, and an average of  184,000 MORE jobs added per month in the private sector since December 2010 with the revised benchmarked data.






Here's a summary of data from the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics).  All numbers lost to the "trough" of the recession reflect ALL non-farm jobs lost between the time Obama took office and the lowest point of the recession in late 2009/early 2010.  These numbers DO reflect the new benchmarks:
(Note:  All of the jobs numbers are NET numbers.  In other words, we know that jobs are lost and added every month, in good years and in bad.  The numbers reported here, based on Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers, are "net" numbers; that is, the number of jobs gained after the number of jobs lost is subtracted, or the number of jobs lost after the number of jobs gained is added.)  
Seasonally adjusted:
  • All jobs lost from the time Obama took office to "trough" (bottom of recession): .....4,317,000
  • All jobs gained since "trough": ....4,642,000 (with benchmark revisions)
Net GAIN in seasonally-adjusted jobs since Obama took office: .... 325,000                     

"Raw:" numbers not seasonally adjusted:
  • Jobs lost from the time Obama took office to trough: .....4,246,000                                                    
  • Jobs gained since "trough": .......6,874,000 (with benchmark revisions)
Net GAIN in raw unadjusted jobs since Obama took office: ..... 2,628,000 (with revisions)

*Though, as of July 2012, we still had fewer jobs (in adjusted numbers) than when President Obama took office, jobs are being added at a faster clip under Obama than under George Bush at the same time in his presidency.  At this point in Bush's presidency (July 2004), there were still 978,000 fewer jobs than when he was inaugurated in January 2001 (compared to 316,000 fewer for Obama).  The number of jobs didn't eclipse the number when Bush was first inaugurated until February 2005, in Bush's second term.  (This will be updated for September in the next few days.)  

How many private sector jobs have been gained or lost since Obama took office?

Seasonally adjusted:
  • Private-sector jobs lost to "trough" (bottom of recession): .....4,212,000
  • Private-sector jobs gained since "trough": .....5,179,000 (with benchmark revisions)
         
*(This is the number often used by Obama and the Democrats as the number of private jobs created since the "trough" of the recession .  It is a correct number, but it is a seasonally-adjusted number.  In "real" unadjusted numbers [the actual number of jobs that your family and neighbors have], there are 7,509,000 MORE private sector jobs than there were at the "trough" of the recession.)
  
Net GAIN in seasonally-adjusted private-sector jobs since Obama took office: ....967,000 with revisions                      


"Raw:" numbers not seasonally adjusted: 
  • Private-sector jobs lost to "trough": .....4,151,000 
  • Private-sector jobs gained since "trough": .....7,509,000 (with revisions)                     
Net GAIN in "raw" unadjusted private-sector jobs since Obama took office: .....3,358,000 with revisions 

*Though, as of July 2012, we still had fewer private-sector jobs (in adjusted numbers) than when President Obama took office, jobs are being added at a faster clip under Obama than under George Bush at the same time in his presidency.  At this point in Bush's presidency (July 2004), there were still 1,749,000 FEWER private sector jobs than when he was inaugurated in January 2001 (compared to 332,000 MORE for Obama).  The number of private-sector jobs didn't eclipse the number when Bush was first inaugurated until June 2005, in Bush's second term.  (This number will be updated for September in a few days.)       


How many government jobs have been gained or lost since Obama took office?

Seasonally adjusted:
  • Government jobs lost from Obama's inauguration to "trough" (bottom of recession): .....105,000
  • Government jobs lost since "trough": .....537,000 (with revisions)
  • The peak of government jobs since Obama was inaugurated, not counting Census 2010 workers, occurred in April 2009.  There were 21,675,000 government jobs that month.  That's 99,000 more government jobs than we had in January 2009.
  • Government jobs lost since that peak in April 2009:  360,000 (with revisions)      
Net LOSS in seasonally-adjusted government jobs since Obama took office: ....642,000 (with revisions)                      


"Raw:" numbers not seasonally adjusted: 
  • Government jobs lost to "trough": .....95,000 
  • Government jobs lost since "trough": .....1,024,000 (with revisions)                      
Net LOSS in "raw" unadjusted government jobs since Obama took office: .....730,000 with revisions


(Note:  All of my employment number reports are based on monthly reports and data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  Monthly numbers reports are based on the monthly Employment Situation Report.  The Employment Situation report includes month over month and year over year numbers of jobs and workers.  My analysis is taken from the monthly BLS data copied to an Excel spreadsheet every month.  I calculate detailed percentage increases/decreases, 3 month numbers, 2011 to date numbers, and I compare jobs numbers to those at the time of Obama's inauguration and at the "trough" of the recession.  As the BLS revises its numbers as new information is available, I use the latest available numbers in my monthly articles, which means that those numbers may differ slightly from numbers published in previous months.) 

4 comments:

  1. Please explain how "more jobs in total" is less than "more private sector jobs" and "more people working"

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sorry, I thought I answered this days ago. Two employment sectors make up the "jobs in total": Private sector jobs and government sector jobs. The private sector jobs has gone up for 32 months straight, but the number of government sector jobs has gone down most of the months over the past two years.

      So.. the "total increase" of jobs is the increase in private sector number of jobs minus the decrease in government jobs.

      "People working" comes from a different source than "jobs" and it includes self-employed people and agricultural workers. As a whole, the total number of jobs is about 93-94% the number of "people working".

      Delete
  2. Molly, Molly, Molly. How do you end your first term with a worse percentage of unemployed Americans than when you start and still claim to have added such a high number of net jobs? I think the number of 195,000 net jobs added would be closer to the truth.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It's ARITHMETIC, Anonymous.

      Think of pizzas. Let's say you have a thin crust pizza that is 12 inches in diameter and a thin crust pizza that is 16 inches in diameter. You cut each pizza into 12 equal pieces. Now, assuming you like pizza, which piece of pizza would you want.. One from a 12 inch pie or one from a 16 inch pie?

      That's what happened.. the "pie"... the total number of workers and the total number of jobs...is bigger than it was in January 2009. So the total number of jobs is higher even when you take out the piece that is the unemployed segment.

      Delete

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