JULY# Fri, Aug 4: +209,000 jobs.

Unemployment down 4.3%...JULY details HERE.. Jobs since Trump took office?... Unemp. rate under Trump? (not yet updated)

Friday, August 4, 2017

July 2017 Unemployment Rate, Jobs

The July 2017 Jobs Report was released by the government's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, Friday, August 4. This is another strong report, continuing last month's trend.  This report, while strong, is not better than most of the job reports during the Obama years.

The economy has been adding jobs consistently for 7 1/2 years now.  In fact, in 45 of the 84 months between early 2010 and the end of the Obama Presidency, 200,000 or more jobs were added.

The job reports under Trump (since February) seem to continue this trend of consistent addition of jobs and slow but consistent decline in the unemployment rate. 


July 2017 Job Report Highlights: 
  • The economy added 209,000 jobs, an  above average number of new jobs, and the unemployment rate declined slightly by 0.1% to 4.3% due to people entering the labor force and finding jobs.
  • Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 195,000 per month.  Over the past 12 months, job gains have averaged 180,000 per month.
  • Over the past 6 months, since Trump took office, job gains have averaged 179,000 per month.  In the last 6 months of the Obama administration, job gains averaged 181,000 per month.  In the 6 months ending a year ago, in July 2016, job gains averaged 208,000 per month. 
  • The number of employed people INCREASED by 345,000The number of unemployed people INCREASED by 4,000 as 349,000 people joined the labor force, meaning that they either started working or started looking for work.  That is a NET number.
  • 54,000 FEWER people are working full-time and 393,000 MORE  people were working part-time in July vs. June.
  • There were 205,000 MORE private sector jobs, and 4,000 MORE government jobs in June.  
  • The alternate unemployment rate (U-6) stayed athe same  at 8.6% this month.  A year ago the U-6 rate was 9.7%.  
  • The Labor Force participation rate has been VERY stable since 2014, varying between 62.4% and 63%.  It was 62.9% in July, increasing 0.1% since June, but rising a total of 0.1%  over the past year, since July 2016.
  • Remember that there is NO ideal labor force size, and most of the overall decrease in the labor force participation RATE over the last few years has been due to Baby Boomers retiring in great numbers.
From the BLS report: 
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised down from +152,000 to +145,000, and the change for June was revised up from +222,000 to +231,000. With these revisions, employment gains in May and June combined were 2,000 more than previously reported. Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors. Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 195,000 per month. 


July 2017 reports: (Notation on the links will be changed to "UPDATED for July" when the updated reports become available later today or over the weekend.  Not all reports are updated every month.)

More highlights and reports will continue to be posted here over the coming days and weeks.  Please check back!



Preview:

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the July 2017 Jobs report including the number of jobs added or lost by employers in July as well as the new unemployment rate tomorrow morning, August 4, 2017, at 8:30 a.m. EDT.


The payroll processor ADP released its monthly report of jobs in the private sector Wednesday, August 2, 2017. ADP believes that 178,000 new jobs were created in the private sector in July, the lowest number in three months.  Over time, the ADP numbers and the official BLS numbers tend to be closely aligned, but in any one month ADP may predict a smaller or a larger number than BLS. 

ADP believes we have added 200,000 private sector jobs a month on average over the past 13 months, back to July 2016.  So 178,000 is really not that much lower than this average. 


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