AUG#: +130,000 jobs.

Unemployment up at 3.7%...AUG jobs under Trump HERE

Friday, September 1, 2017

August 2017 Unemployment Rate, Jobs

The August 2017 Jobs Report was released by the government's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, Friday, September 1. This was a surprisingly mediocre report, showing only 156,000 new jobs, and it did not meet the pundits' estimates of 180,000 to 200,000 new jobs.   The unemployment rate inched up to 4.4%, in the same range that it has been in since April.

Hurricane Harvey influence?

Some suggest that the jobs numbers may represent a turn-around from a strong Obama economy to a weaker Trump economy, but we won't know that for a few months.

Jobs numbers are compiled as of the week containing the 12th day of the month, so this report was not impacted by Hurricane Harvey, but the next 1-2 reports may well be.  Jobs numbers did not go down after Hurricane Katrina back in 2005, but they did seem to stall.
The economy has been adding jobs consistently for 7 1/2 years now.  In fact, in 45 of the 83 months between early 2010 and the end of the Obama Presidency, 200,000 or more jobs were added.

Despite this month's slow down and minor increase in the unemployment rate, job reports under Trump (since February) seem to continue the trend of consistent addition of jobs and slow but generally consistent decline in the unemployment rate. 

August 2017 Job Report Highlights: 

  • The economy added 156,000 jobs, a below average number of new jobs, and the unemployment rate increased slightly by 0.1% to 4.4% due to people entering the labor force but not immediately finding jobs.
  • Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 185,000 per month.  Over the past 12 months, job gains have averaged 175,000 per month.
  • Over the past 7 months, since Trump took office, job gains have averaged 170,000 per month.  In the last 7 months of the Obama administration, job gains averaged 196,000 per month.  In the 7 months ending a year ago, in August 2016, job gains averaged 203,000 per month. 
  • The number of employed people DECREASED by 77,000The number of unemployed people INCREASED by 151,000 as 77,000 people joined the labor force but not all of them could find work.  These are NET numbers.
  • 166,000 FEWER people are working full-time and 34,000 MORE  people were working part-time in August vs. July.
  • There were 165,000 MORE private sector jobs, and 9,000 FEWER government jobs in August.  
  • The alternate unemployment rate (U-6) stayed at the same rate of 8.6% this month as it has for the last 3 months.  A year ago the U-6 rate was 9.7%.  
  • The Labor Force participation rate has been VERY stable since 2014, varying between 62.4% and 63%.  It was 62.9% in August, exactly the same as it was in July.  It has risen 0.1%  over the past year, since August 2016.
  • Remember that there is NO ideal labor force size, and most of the overall decrease in the labor force participation RATE over the last few years has been due to Baby Boomers retiring in great numbers.

From the BLS report: 
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for June was revised down from +231,000 to +210,000, and the change for July was revised down from +209,000 to +189,000. With these revisions, employment gains in June and July combined were 41,000 less than previously reported. ... After revisions, job gains have averaged 185,000 per month over the past 3 months. 
  • Obama's final jobs numbers HERE.
  • Trump's million jobs:  Good or bad? HERE
  • How Many Jobs Added Under Trump?
    Latest report for August 2017 HERE
August 2017 reports: (Notation on the links will be changed to "UPDATED for August" when the updated reports become available over the weekend.  Not all reports are updated every month.)

More highlights and reports will continue to be posted here over the coming days and weeks.  Please check back!

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