January 2018: Job Growth Under Trump?

Jobs Numbers were released today, Friday, February 2, 2018, for January 2018.  This is the 12th month of jobs reports under Trump.   We are still adding jobs, and we added 200,000 jobs in January.

(Jobs reports for January 2018 can be found HERE.)

As I said last month, it is a good thing for the people of the country that we are still adding jobs considering the uncertainty and absurdity of many of the President's policies.   Please also be aware that, while tax cuts may cause a short term increase in the number of jobs, they often lead to a recession with loss of jobs a few years down the line.  They also often lead to inflation-adjusted wage erosion.
    

How are we doing compared to the last 5-6 years of the Obama Presidency?
Let's not just look at raw jobs numbers, but let's look at the percentage increase in jobs numbers over six month periods.  That will even out the jobs numbers, which tend to vary quite a bit month to month.  Each bar represents the % increase in jobs over a 6 month period ending in the designated month.  Blue bars represent six month periods during the Obama Presidency; green bars represent six month periods overlapping Obama and Trump Presidencies; red bars represent six month periods during the Trump Presidency.

Here is what job growth has looked like over the past five years when calculated as a percentage increase over any running six month period:

Source:  Change in BLS jobs numbers from chart CES0000000001
over any 6 month period as a %.  (68 = .68% increase in # of jobs.)

January 2018: Unemployment Rate, Jobs

The January 2018 Jobs Report was released by the government's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, Friday, February 2, 2018.  Job growth continued and the unemployment rate remained stable.

• The report showed an increase of 200,0000 jobs which was slightly more than the 180,000 additional jobs that the pundits expected.
• The unemployment rate continued at 4.1% for the fourth consecutive month.

January reports (updated as new reports are published):

• January 2018: Job growth under Trump?

More reports will be added in the coming hours.  Please check back!


Predictions?

Various prognosticators estimated that around 180,000 new jobs were created in January.  That would be below the monthly average of 204,000 new jobs over the past three months.  

Meanwhile, the payroll processor ADP estimated that we added 234,000 private sector jobs in January.  ADP's estimates have been somewhat higher than the BLS numbers over the last few months.