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Thursday, April 21, 2011

Romney Ahead of Obama?

Is Romney Really Ahead of Obama?

Polls can be so misleading, and so can news articles and reports about a poll.

Just this morning in Huffington Post:

Mitt Romney in Striking Distance of Obama! 

Let's look at a few statements in this article:  

This article states that  example, 44% of the people would definitely not vote for Obama in 2012, and only 37% said they definitely would vote for Obama. It doesn't mention that this is 4 points lower than a poll from last November, in which 48% of the people said that they definitely won't vote for Obama and only 36% of the people said they would vote for him. 

If that trend continued, it would mean that, by November 2012, 28% of the people would definitely not vote for O, and 42% definitely would! 

Romney and Obama have been trading leads for months now.

In terms of Mitt Romney vs. Obama, back in December, Mitt Romney outpolled Obama 46% to 44%!   Polls over the last few months show Romney and Obama trading leads.  Romney's current lead over Obama is not something new as this article would have us believe.

And, according to a Fox news poll, more people now in April 2011 believe that Obama "deserves to be reelected" (44%) vs. only 35% who believed he deserved to be reelected last December.

Polls are meaningles­s unless they are put into context, and the Huffington Post article has not done that very well.   But please check out that article for the vibrant discussion of Romney's chances.

(Figures from www.pollin­­m .)

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