AUG: +151,000 jobs. Unemployment rate steady at 4.9%. AUG details here!.. Jobs since Obama took office?... Unemp. rate under Obama?

Friday, August 5, 2011

How Many Jobs Has Obama Created or Lost (July update)?

Below are July 2011 updates.  For current updates, please click the above link.

How has Obama done on jobs?  How many jobs have been lost or gained during the Obama administration?  Have more new jobs been created or have jobs been lost under Obama to date?  Keep reading for the answers to these questions...
Despite the problems in the economy and the drop in the stock market, the total number of jobs did continue to increase in seasonally adjusted numbers in July 2011.  

The Democrats claim that 2.1 million private sector jobs have been created in the Obama administration.  Is this true?

Please continue reading below the fold---
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Men and Women in the Recession:  Who is winning?  Who has lost?  
America's Poor: Lazy? Irresponsible? Dependent? 
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Yes, but it is now a bit low.  In seasonally adjusted numbers as of July 2011, 2,384,000 private-sector jobs have been created since the bottom of the recession. 



Here's a summary of data from the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics).  All numbers lost to the "trough" of the recession reflect jobs lost between the time Obama took office and the lowest point of the recession:
Seasonally adjusted:
  • All jobs lost from the time Obama took office to "trough" (bottom of recession):                                                          4,303,000
  • All jobs gained since "trough":                                1,944,000
Net loss in seasonally-adjusted jobs:               2,359,000                      



"Raw:" numbers not seasonally adjusted:
  • Jobs lost from the time Obama took office to "trough":  4,246,000                                                                                                                      
  • Jobs gained since "trough":                                      3,611,000
Net loss in raw unadjusted job numbers:              635,000 



How many private sector jobs have been gained or lost since Obama took office?

Seasonally adjusted:
  • Private-sector jobs lost to "trough" (bottom of recession):      4,189,000
  • Private-sector jobs gained since "trough":                           2,384,000
         
*(This is the number often used by Obama and the Democrats as the number of private jobs created since the "trough" of the recession .  It is a correct number, but it is a seasonally-adjusted number.  In "real" unadjusted numbers, 5,129,000 private sector jobs have been created.)
  
Net loss in seasonally-adjusted private-sector jobs :           1,805,000                      



"Raw:" numbers not seasonally adjusted: 
  • Private-sector jobs lost to "trough":                        4,151,000 
  • Private-sector jobs gained since "trough":               5,129,000                                   
Net gain in "raw" unadjusted private-sector jobs:
                                                                                978,000  




How many workers have been laid off or hired during the Obama administration?  

Seasonally adjusted:  
  • Fewer people working to "trough" :                         4,260,000 
  • More people working since "trough":                       1,336,000      
Net loss in seasonally-adjusted number of people working:                                                                                                                                             .                                         2,925,000                          



"Raw:" numbers not seasonally adjusted:
  • Fewer workers to "trough":                                     3,627,000
  • More workers since "trough":                                   3,575,000
Net loss in "raw" unadjusted number of people working:                                  .                                                          52,000        
     
Can you summarize this?
  • Obama was inaugurated in January 2009 when the economy was in free fall and we were losing about 700,000 jobs a month.  A total of 4,400,000 jobs were lost before Obama took office.  
  • The employment situation did not bottom out until late 2009 or early 2010.  An additional 4,300,000 jobs were lost between the time that Obama took office and the bottom ("trough") of the recession.  
  • That's a total job loss of at least 8,700,000 jobs over approximately 2 years.
  • Since the economy started to add jobs under Obama, 1,940,000+ jobs have been added using seasonally-adjusted numbers (See below). 
  • Since the economy started to add jobs under Obama, 3,611,000 jobs have been added using "real" unadjusted numbers.  
  • We still need many, many more jobs to overcome the loss of jobs that started in 2008 and to make up for the increase in population since 2008.



 How did you come up with these numbers?  Why isn't there one number instead of all of these?    



Counting jobs or workers is very tricky. We have still lost more jobs and workers in the first year of Obama's administration, when the economy was struggling to pull out of recession, than we have gained during the second year of Obama's administration when we have experienced job growth.  We are still running a jobs/workers deficit of approximately 400,000 to 2,200,000 since Obama took office.  The job growth experienced in the first few months of 2011 has slowed, but job growth has continued.  



But according to one count used, the unadjusted, actual "raw" count of private jobs created when not adjusted for seasonal variance, we have pulled into positive territory and there are 978,000 more "real" jobs in the private sector now than there were when Obama was inaugurated and the economy was in free fall.


There's usually no one number that explains everything, and most monthly numbers need to be seen as "trends", not absolutes.  People use the unemployment rate, but even that can vary for so many reasons that don't really reflect the true state of the labor market.

So.. a few explanations and more detail:



What is a "trough"?  When did we hit the low point of jobs and workers?  When did we hit the high point of unemployment? 

I use the term "trough" to designate the lowest point of jobs or workers in this recession.  The various counts reach their "troughs" in various months, so it may be a bit confusing.  The unemployment rate reached its high point in October 2009.  The seasonally adjusted number of workers reached its low point in December 2009, but so many workers had dropped out of the work force that the unemployment rate had actually come down.  In raw, unadjusted numbers of workers and jobs, we reached our nadir in January 2010.  The seasonally-adjusted number of jobs reached its low point a month later, in February 2010. 



How Many Jobs were Lost from the time Obama took office until the "trough" of jobs lost?
  • In seasonally adjusted numbers, employers reported 133,549,000 jobs in January 2009.  At the trough of the recession in February 2010, there were 129,246,000 jobs.  That's a loss of 4,303,000 jobs from the time Obama took office until the "trough" of the recession. 
  • In "raw" numbers (not adjusted for seasonal variances), employers reported 131,555,000 jobs in January 2009.  At the trough of the recession in January 2010, there were 127,309,000 jobs.  That's a loss of  4,246,000 jobs from the time Obama took office until the "trough" of the recession. 




How Many Fewer Were Employed from the time Obama took office until the "trough" of employment?
  • In seasonally adjusted numbers, 142,221,000 people reported themselves as employed in January 2009.  At the trough of the recession in December 2009, 137,960,000 people reported themselves as employed.  That's a loss of 4,261,000 employed people from the time Obama took office until the "trough" of the recession.
  • In "raw" numbers (not adjusted for seasonal variances), 140,436,000 people reported themselves as employed in January 2009.  At the trough of the recession in January 2010, 136,809,000 people reported themselves as employed.  That's a loss of 3,627,000 employed people from the time Obama took office until the "trough" of the recession. 


What was the unemployment rate when Obama took office?  How high did it go? 
  • For the record, when Obama took office in January 2009, the "official" unemployment rate in seasonally adjusted numbers was 7.7%, with 11,919,000 people reported themselves as unemployed and actively looking.  In "raw" numbers not adjusted for seasonal variance, the unemployment rate was 8.5% with 13,009,000 people reporting themselves as unemployed and actively looking for work.
  • At the trough of the recession in late 2009/early 2010, the "official" unemployment rate in seasonally adjusted numbers was 10.1% in October 2009 with 15,612,000 people (out of a labor force of about 154,000,000) reporting themselves as unemployed.  In "raw" numbers not adjusted for seasonal variance, the unemployment rate reached a peak of 10.6% in January 2010 with 16,147,000 (out of a labor force of about 153,000,000) reporting themselves as unemployed and actively looking for work.
  • Now, in July 2011, the "official" unemployment rate in seasonally adjusted numbers is 9.1% with 13,931,000 (out of a labor force of 153,228,000).  In unadjusted "raw" numbers the unemployment rate remains at 9.3%, the same as in June 2011.



How many jobs have been created since the "trough" of the recession in late 2009/early 2010 to now, July 2011?
  • In seasonally adjusted numbers, 1,944,000 jobs have been created since the "trough" of the recession in February 2010.
  • In raw unadjusted numbers, 3,611,000 jobs have been created since the "trough" of the recession in January 2010.



How many more people reported they were working since the "trough" of the recession in late 2009/early 2010 to now, July 2011?  
  • In seasonally adjusted numbers, 1,336,000 more people are working since the trough of the recession in December 2009.
  • In "raw" unadjusted numbers, 3,575,000 more people are working since the trough of the recession in January 2010.

9 comments:

  1. What are your thoughts on this article?

    http://www.cis.org/node/2649

    ReplyDelete
  2. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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  3. To Walter: I deleted your comment. You made some good points, worthy of discussion, but you were insulting. If you want to insult people, start your own blog.

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  4. To Anonymous who posted August 11 in the morning: I have also deleted your comment, which made no sense. and was also somewhat insulting. If you want to write nonsense and be insulting, start your own blog.

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  5. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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  6. To anonymous from August 9: Thanks for the link. I did read the article, and I will comment on it when I have a few minutes. Thanks again!

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  7. To Walter:

    Walter, this is Molly's husband. If you were to address my wife face to face in the manner in which you did so in your latest post, you would find yourself in the hospital. For anyone curious as to why I have chosen to address this, Walter chose to use not only the word "cunt" in reference to my wife, he used even more offensive language, if you can picture this. For this reason his posts were deleted. I am retired military(Senior Chief Gunners Mate,USN), and you sir, are hiding behind the anonymity of the internet. In the service, we had a word for people like you. That word was coward. If you would like, I would be more than happy to e-mail you my phone number so that we might discuss your lack of respect for people in general and my wife in particular. My name is Paul, if you should care to address me in any sort of intelligent and polite manner.

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  8. All I can say is wow! You truelly have helped me with breaking down these #s. I am all in support of the president and his administration. I do a lot of volunteer work and speak about both his success and failures. I do feel better armed with stats and #s to defend various conversations some people may have about the current job status of the country. How can i link this to my facebook page? Thank you for taking your time to help to enlighten us.
    Rod in Chicago

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  9. Thank you Paul for your response to the coward, and thank you for your service to our country! Thank you Molly for reposting the jobs numbers.

    ReplyDelete

I appreciate intelligent comments and questions, including those that are at odds with anything posted here. I have elected not to screen comments before they are published; however, any comments that are in any way insulting, caustic, or intentionally inflammatory will be deleted without notice. Spam will also be immediately deleted.