Tuesday, May 31, 2011

Who Got the Jobs? April 2011

How many more people have reported themselves as working in April 2011 compared to March 2011?


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Update:  How Many Got Jobs in May?  Preliminary analysis


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699,000 according to the Current Population survey of the BLS..  


That sounds like a lot, but let's look a little closer..


First of all, check out my article from earlier this month:


How Many Jobs Were Created in April 2011? 


That article explains some of the basics in employment and unemployment statistics.  Pay particular attention to the discussion of unadjusted vs. seasonally adjusted numbers.  And pay attention to the discussion of the difference between the Population Survey (in which people report their employment status) and the Establishment Report (in which corporations and hiring entities report the number of people on their payrolls).


Now, with that background, let's begin:


Part 1:  Unadjusted employment numbers as reported in the Population Survey.


699,000 more people reported that they were working in April 2011 than in March 2011.  This is an unadjusted number, which means that the data has not been modified to account for usual seasonal fluctuations.  In April, one would expect that warm weather workers would report back to work, perhaps construction people.  One would also expect that employers would start to staff for seasonal jobs such as landscaping, garden stores, beach stands, and tourist attractions.  And in fact, raw unadjusted numbers of people employed always go up in April.


But the Population Survey doesn't provide seasonal adjustments to all of its sub groups.  And we are talking about real people, so Part 1 of this analysis will be based on unadjusted numbers.  In particular, we want to see who won Employment Roulette in April 2011.


Just who are these 699,000 people? Are they old, young, black, white, Hispanic?  What occupations and industries grew?  In a few days, we should also be able to discern whether more jobs went North, South, West, or Midwest, so continue to follow this blog.  Here is what we know so far:


1.  More Men than Women.


574,000 more men of all ages and races are working in April 2011 vs. March.  Only 125,000 more women of all ages and races are working in April 2011 vs. March.  Despite the great influx of men into the employment pool, women, however, still have a lower unemployment overall than men.  This recession has tended to hit men harder than women, so it is not a particularly bad thing that men returned to the work force in April in greater numbers than women.


In unadjusted numbers, the unemployment rate for women fell by 0.1% this month, but it fell 0.9% for men.


2.  More Jobs for Whites.  No more jobs for Blacks or Asians.


Yep.  Unfortunately, there was a net increase of only 1,000 black people who are employed in April 2011.  14,965,000 black people reported themselves as employed in March 2011, and 14,966,000 black people reported themselves as employed in April 2011.  Of the 699,000 people who went back to work in April, only 1,000 of those people were black.  One thousand.  



3.  Black Men Get More Jobs; Black Women Get Fewer.

Now employment did increase for black men, but at the expense of black women.  Black women over the age of 20 lost 76,000 jobs in April; black men over the age of 20 gained 53,000 jobs.  And black kids 16-19 years of age gained 24,000 jobs last month.  


In unadjusted numbers, the unemployment rate for whites went down, but the unemployment rate for blacks went up, though it went down for black men.  Again, unadjusted numbers look different than adjusted numbers. The adjusted rate for white people edged up just a little bit, .1%, but the adjusted rate for black people jumped up six-tenths or a percent (.6%). 


4.  Unemployment rate drops for Asians.. but employment drops as well.


Asians have generally had unemployment rates as low or lower than whites.  While the unadjusted unemployment rate for Asians did drop from March to April 2011, the total number of Asians employed also dropped by 49,000, from 6,881,000 to 6,832,000.  The reason that the unemployment rate for Asians also went down, despite the drop in employment, is that 115,000 Asians left the work force.   


There are no seasonally adjusted numbers for Asians available monthly, nor are there monthly breakdowns for Asians by sex or age.    


5.  Hispanics Got More New Jobs than Whites as a percentage of the employed population.

Hispanics did well in Employment Roulette April 2011.  The number of employed Hispanics increased over a percent (vs. a half of a percent for the population as a whole), with an additional 228,000 Hispanics reporting themselves as working.  Hispanic men over 20 represented 114,000 of the newly employed; Hispanic women represented 59,000 of the newly employed.  Additionally, Hispanic kids 16 through 19 went up But Hispanic kids really went back to work!   Continue...

6.  Black and Hispanic Kids (16-19) Get More Jobs than White Kids.  White Kids Lose Jobs.


The largest increase in employment in any of the sub-demographic grouping went to Hispanic young people between the ages of 16 and 19.  There was an 8.56% increase in employment in this subgroup.     


31,000 more kids (16-19) had jobs in April vs. March.  53,000 more Hispanic kids got jobs in April, reducing the unemployment rate for this group from 31% to 23%.  24,000 black kids in this age group were added to the employment rolls.  The employment count for white kids went down by a thousand.  As people in the ethnic group Hispanic can be of any race, it's safe to assume that the count of young non-Hispanic white kids went down, perhaps by as much as 45,000.


Why did Hispanic and black teen-agers get so many more jobs while white non-Hispanic kids lost so many?  Without more information, it's hard to know what to make of these kinds of numbers.  A year ago, in April 2010, the bulk of teen-aged hiring went to white kids.
    
7.  The Native Born Got Jobs, not the Foreign Born


Of the 699,000 who reported returning to work in April 2011, 686,000 of them were native born, not foreign born.  Only 13,000 more foreign born reported that they now have jobs.  So much for those who believe that immigrants, legal and illegal, are "taking our jobs".  No support for that in the BLS statistics for April 2011.


8.  More Jobs for those without High School Degrees... And For those with only High School Degrees

There were few new jobs for those with college degrees in April 2011.  (There are no monthly numbers available for educational attainment broken down by race or ethnic background.)


That's surprising, isn't it?  Everything we read and hear tells us that, the more education you have, the more likely you will be to be employed.  And, generally, that is true.  In both adjusted and unadjusted rates, people with college degrees have much lower rates of unemployment than people without college degrees, and those without high school degrees fare worst of all.


But we are talking about actual people (unadjusted numbers) who got jobs in April 2011.  And, in April, 2011, people with less (yes, less) education were more likely to be among the 699,000 people who reported that they now have jobs.  For, of the 627,000 increase in the number of people over the age of 25 with jobs in April 2011, 473,000 reported that they had only a high school education or less!  And, of that 627,000 people who now have jobs, only 33,000 of them had a Bachelor's Degree or more.  (Remember, these are unadjusted numbers-- This reflects what happened to real people in the month of April 2011 without regard for usual seasonal fluctuations.  In adjusted numbers, which we will look at later, things look different.)  

It's unusual, and it may have something to do with the kinds of jobs that were increasing in number during April.  As we said in the introductory paragraphs, companies are staffing up for summer, seasonal work, perhaps landscape work, etc. 



Monday, May 16, 2011

The Dumbest Comments About Obama! A Contest!

Enter now!  

This contest is restricted (this time around) to comments found at Huffington Post.


Now, you can't enter your own dumb (and often abusive) comment.  You can only enter dumb comments that some (other) nit-wit has posted.  You can (unfortunately) only nominate comments that have not been deleted. 


Prizes?


The nit wit making the dumb comment gets a mention here.. not sure what that is worth.  And the person nominating the nit wit gets...  a mention here as well.  I'm still not sure what that is worth.  If you have a commercial venture or you need a job or you want to link to your website,  I will do that for you, as long as it is not some kind of porn site. 


Why am I doing this?  


Because I'm tired of the stupid trollish comments about Obama at Huffington Post (and other places).  If you are going to criticize the man, at least make some sense.  Otherwise keep those ranting typing fingers and thumbs quiet. 


So, again, here are the rules:


1.  You must be a registered poster at Huffington Post.
2.  You must find a post about Obama (specifically) that is particularly inane and/or stupid.
3.  You add a comment here on this post with all information...  the link to the stupid comment at Huffington Post, and your Huff Po name.
4.  You can enter as many stupid comments as you wish, but you can't write them.
5,.  I reserve the right to eliminate from contention anything that is simply too mean or abusive.  I'm looking for stupid comments that we can mock for their stupidity, nothing that is actually cruel.  And any comments about Michelle Obama are not allowed.
6.  I can also nominate stupid comments from dim wits.
7.  The contest ends at midnight US Central Daylight Time on June 30, 2011.  (I changed the ending date as I want more nominations.)
8.  I reserve the right to cancel the whole contest if it goes completely off the rails.


Let the stupidity begin! 

Wednesday, May 11, 2011

Twirlr "Gotta Share"

I just gotta share Gotta Share..


I just love this.. We all need a little bit of fun these days.

Just remember...  Twirlr doesn't exist!  It was all part of the Improv!  


Story and Comments from Huffington Post....lighten up, people!


From Improv Everywhere!





Tuesday, May 10, 2011

Kennedy: I'm Proud I'm a Liberal

When someone calls you a "lib" (or even a "libtard"), smile and be proud!   



Remember this great quote by John F. Kennedy when he accepted the nomination of the Liberal Party in New York in 1960:
If by a "Liberal" they mean someone who looks ahead and not behind, someone who welcomes new ideas without rigid reactions, someone who cares about the welfare of the people — their health, their housing, their schools, their jobs, their civil rights, and their civil liberties — someone who believes we can break through the stalemate and suspicions that grip us in our policies abroad, if that is what they mean by a "Liberal," then I'm proud to say I'm a "Liberal." Acceptance of the New York Liberal Party nomination (14 September 1960)
Find out more about this speech using this Google search.



The graphic posted by Rudy Navarro at Facebook. 



Updated November 19, 2013, just a few days before the 50th anniversary of JFK's death, with this great collage from Tracy Knauss at Facebook



















Monday, May 9, 2011

Alternate Unemployment Rate is 18.1% - April 2011

The seasonally-adjusted alternate unemployment rate is 18.1% for April 2011.


In seasonally-adjusted numbers, 18.1% of the American labor force were either "officially" unemployed, working part-time but wanting full-time work, or "wanted work" but hadn't looked for work in the past four weeks for a reason such as being discouraged or convinced there was no work for them.


More here:  


Who Got the Jobs?  April 2011


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Other articles on unemployment:

How the Unemployment Rate is Calculated
February Unemployment: Good news?
Alternate Unemployment Rate is 18.6%
Monthly Unemployment Report for March 2011
What Percentage of the Unemployed Get Benefits?
Monthly Unemployment Report for April
How Many Jobs were Created in April 2011?

Other articles you may wish to check out:
Crushing the Human Spirit Indeed!

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Here's how the numbers break down:
  • 13,747,000 officially unemployed in April 2011
  • 8,600,000 working part-time but wanting full-time work
  • 6,539,000 who "want work" but haven't actively looked in the past 4 weeks.
That adds up to 28,886,000 who are the "alternate" number of unemployed.


The total "alternate" work force now numbers 159,960,000 and includes those who are employed, those who are officially unemployed, and those who"want work".


The "alternate" work force of 159 million plus breaks down as follows:
  • 139,674,000 employed in April 2011.
  • 13,747,000 officially unemployed.
  • 6,539,000 who "want work"
28,886,000 out of 159,960,000 is 18.1%.


This number doesn't include people working temporary jobs, people who are working micro-businesses that may not make much money, nor does it include people who have returned to work for wages much less than what they received in their previous jobs.


The alternate unemployment rate non-seasonally adjusted is 17.7%.


In non-adjusted "real" numbers, we have 13,237,000 unemployed, 6,482, 000 who "want work", and 8,425,000 who are working part-time but want full-time work.  That's a total of 28,144,000 unemployed out of an "alternate" work force of 159,380,000 for a ratio of 17.7%.


This number is coming down, but it is coming down very, very slowly.  Too slowly to save many people from devastating financial chaos.

Saturday, May 7, 2011

How Many Jobs Were Created in April 2011?




So.. just how many more people are actually working this month vs. last month?

These numbers are explained below:  Between 244,000 and 1,169,000 people are working in April who were not working in March.  


1,169,000 more actual  jobs in unadjusted numbers are reported by employers now than in March.

244,000 more jobs in seasonally-adjusted numbers are reported by employers now than in March.


699,000 more people are reporting that they are working this month in "unadjusted" real numbers.


190,000 fewer people are working this month in seasonally-adjusted numbers. 


Clearing up the Confusion about those Unemployment Numbers... Continue below.

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September jobs numbers will be released
Friday, October 7.  Check back then! 
Other articles on unemployment:
How many jobs were created in 2011? 
How the Unemployment Rate is Calculated 
February Unemployment: Good news? 
Alternate Unemployment Rate is 18.6% 
Monthly Unemployment Report for March 2011 
What Percentage of the Unemployed Get Benefits?
 Monthly Unemployment Report for April 
Alternate Unemployment Rate for April is 18.1%
Other articles you may wish to check out:
Crushing the Human Spirit Indeed!

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I've been burying my head in the employment numbers for several years now, since the economy fell off of a cliff.  I'm always stunned at the varying interpretations of the unemployment numbers that we are all subject to every month and every week.  I watched a local news show last night and the news bunnies were all in a tither about how wonderful the new monthly jobs report was.  It was clear they could have cared less and they really didn't know what the job report said... they had jobs!  But what about the rest of us who aren't news bunnies?  Just how thrilled should we be about this jobs report?    

Friday, May 6, 2011

CEO as Teacher Survival! A new Reality Show!

Survivor:  Classroom Edition


Teaching is tough!  


Just found this through Twitter:



Have you heard about the next planned "Survivor" show?

Three businessmen and three businesswomen will be dropped in an elementary school classroom for 1 school year. Each business person will be provided with a copy of his/her school district's curriculum, and a class of 20-25 students.
Each class will have a minimum of five learning-disabled children, three with A.D.H.D., one gifted child, and two who speak limited English. Three students will be.... 

Read the rest here!  Funny!  And true!


Monthly Unemployment Report for April 2011

Official Unemployment Rate is up by .2%.. but wait!


We have 800,000 fewer people reporting themselves as officially unemployed (out of work and actively looking).  And the unadjusted rate has dropped .5%, from 9.2% to 8.7%.  (A year ago it was 9.7%.) We have 700,000 more people reporting themselves as employed in unadjusted (real) numbers.


Seasonally adjusted jobs as reported from employers did go up 240,000.  That's a decent increase.  (Unadjusted (real) job growth was 1,100,000.)   268,000 of the increase (in adjusted numbers) was in the private sector; local and state government jobs numbers are starting to decline.


600,000 to 1,000,000 people had jobs in April that didn't have jobs in March.


What's the Bottom Line in April employment?

Thursday, May 5, 2011

Weekly Unemployment: Initial Claims Up May 5, 2011

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Up Again.


Weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits were up again, this time by 43,000 seasonally adjusted and 25,000 unadjusted.  The Labor Department claims that the increase this week reflected a high number of schools that were on spring break, and school workers who were claiming unemployment for that week.


Perhaps that is true, but it doesn't make much sense.  Won't they be right back at work after the spring break?  Why isn't spring break counted as a vacation?  Do school cafeteria workers and bus drivers really get unemployment for being on a scheduled vacation?


Is this the beginning of a trend?


Even if this number was inflated by school personnel, it marks the third week out of four that initial claims have gone up.  More significantly, it is the 6th week out of  7 that the "four week average" number of claims has gone up.  The "4 week average" smooths out the ups and downs of the weekly numbers and is supposed to be a more accurate reflection of where the unemployment numbers are going.        


A few weeks can't be taken as real evidence that the job market is opening up or shutting down.  We'll have to wait a few more weeks to see if this trend continues.  However, the initial claims haven't been this high since late January.  The trough, the lowest number of initial claims since the recession began, occurred in late February, and initial claims figures have been dropping much of this year. 


8 months since the initial rate was this high?


It appears that we hit this high number of initial claims back last October, six months ago.  We hit this high number of claims using 4 week averaging last January.  So it is an upwards bounce, but it's still in the wait-and-see range.  I 


1,600,000 More out of Work?


A question often posed about the initial claims numbers:  There are a total of about 1,600,000 million new claims this month.  With only a few hundred thousand more jobs, aren't we still losing over a million jobs a month?


I've been trying to find out exactly what constitutes an "initial claim".  We know we aren't still losing a million jobs a month; we've been adding jobs for the last few months, so there must be many more initial claims than there are people who will wind up counted as unemployed.  I know that construction workers and seasonal workers file a claim whenever they are out of work, and many are called back to work after a short time off.  But I've been searching and Googling and searching for awhile now, and I can't find a good explanation of exactly what constitutes an "initial claim", and why those numbers are so much higher than "real" unemployment numbers.


2,000,000 Fewer Collecting Benefits This Year vs. Last. 


In any event, the total number of people collecting benefits on any claim (Regular state, Federal extended, State extended benefits and a few other smaller programs), is still going down.  10,524,000 people collecting a year ago; 8,015,000 collecting now.  We have no idea how many of the ten million from a year ago found jobs, how many are still on unemployment now, and how many dropped off of the rolls.  That's a tragedy.  We don't make any efforts to follow up on those who have stopped getting UI.


"Painful" and "Ugly" Fixes for the Economy 


Meanwhile, I read suggestion after suggestion about how to fix the economy including many tough love suggestions.  It's going to get ugly out there, say some.  It will be painful, say others.  But somehow the people talking gleefully about the pain and suffering of others as the economy gets "fixed" don't seem to care as long as they aren't losing their jobs, their savings, their homes.  Pain and suffering, I guess, is for the "little people" who are just not superior enough to work through the recession.


Enough about that.  


Suggested Reading:


Finally, I found this column written a couple of months ago on stockbloghub.  It provides a great.overview on many of these same issues regarding unemployment and counting the unemployed.

Monday, May 2, 2011

Osama Bin Laden is Dead! Monday Morning

It's Monday Morning and Osama Bin Laden is still dead!


1.  Osama Bin Laden is Dead!
2.  Osama Bin Laden is Still Dead!
3.  Firefighters celebrate death of Osama Bin Laden.


Monday Morning Updates and Great Reads:


Great Weekend!

Obama Takes out Osama and Dumps Trump
CONTRARY TO FOX NEWS OPINION WE HAVE GOT OURSELVES ONE HELL OF A PRESIDENT.In two days and nights Obama has changed the political climate from poisonous to joyous!    The man is on a roll!!
First in a” night of the long knives of racial justice” he, as a black man and as an American… took down the racist asswipe Donald Trump with a blistering five minutes of put downs at the correspondents dinner in Washington. If Trump had any real hair it would’ve stood up on end!!"
From Greytdog on Twitter:
Dear GOP: Pres. Obama's team killed Osama Bin Laden. Your team wants to deny 9/11 First responders health care. Who's the patriot?
From DavidCornDC via Twitter:
This would be a really good week to demand Obama's college records and to question his academic abilities. 
Hah!  Good one!


From Huffington Post:


Inside and around the Abbotabad mansion.


From Yahoo News:


Taliban Threatens Attacks  


From CBS:


Osama's remains buried at sea, apparently Saudi Arabia didn't want them.

From the guy in Pakistan who tweeted the whole thing without knowing what was going on:


A Helicopter is Down!

And, from the Washington Post, a biography of Osama Bin Laden.

His father apparently divorced his mother (the father had many wives) when Bin Laden was very young.  The mother was remarried to a man who worked in the Bin Laden company, and Osama Bin Laden spent his formative years with his mother and her stepfamily.  As Muslim men often have plural wives, I wonder why the dad divorced this wife?    


While you are here:


Who Is Crushing the Human Spirit? 

Osama Bin Laden Is Dead Part 3 Firefighters Celebrating!



Firefighters celebrating in Times Square:



Twitpic from @BlakeVE 


Thanks!!


Don't miss Osama Bin Laden Is Dead 
And updates at:  Osama Bin Laden is Still Dead!  


Monday Morning Updates


While you are here also check out:  What is Crushing the Human Spirit?

Sunday, May 1, 2011

Osama Bin Laden is Still Dead!

Osama Bin Laden is dead part 2.  


Don't miss:
Original story of Osama Bin Laden's death
Firefighters celebrating in Times Square
Monday Morning Updates


He was found in an "affluent" suburb, not in a cave..  


Obama gave the order to execute this mission Friday morning, April 29th.  Carried out early Sunday morning, Pakistani time.


Hilarious tweet:
 Wow! Obama is taking credit for this even though it happened during Donald Trump's show.  (From Rep. Jack Kimble.)

Osama Bin Laden is Dead!

Osama Bin Laden is Dead!


Updates here:
Osama Bin Laden is Dead:  Firefighters celebrating in Times Square
and here:
Osama Bin Laden is Still Dead Part 2


Monday Morning Updates


Waiting for Obama to speak.  Sunday, May 1, 2011, 10:30 p.m. CDT.


CNN is reporting that Bin Laden was killed in a mansion outside of Islamabad, Pakistan.


NBC says there are conflicting reports about where Bin Laden was killed. 


CNN says it was a "human" raid and not a predator drone that was responsible for his death.


People outside the White House in a spontaneous demonstration:  Singing the national anthem and God Bless America, waving flags.  Shouting USA!


Military on high alert.


Updates as they develop.  


Obama speaking: