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Sunday, August 26, 2012

How Many Jobs Have Been Created or Lost in the Last 3 Months? (April to July 2012 update)


How Many Jobs Created in the Last 59 Months HERE!

How many jobs have been created in the last three months, from April  2012 through July 2012? 
  314,000


How many private-sector jobs have been created in those three months?   361,000

How many more people working in those three months, from April through July 2012?  
355,000 


Have jobs been lost (seasonally adjusted numbers) in the last three months?  NO.  I'll repeat that:  NO jobs have been lost (NET) in April through July 2012. 

How many jobs (in seasonally adjusted numbers) have been lost in the last three months?  NO jobs (NET) have been lost in April through July 2012.  

This report is from 2012, three years ago.  Recent numbers and reports can be found HERE.



How many jobs TOTAL were created over the past three months from April 2012 to July 2012?

  • In seasonally adjusted numbers, 314,0000 jobs have been CREATED in the last three months.  That's 105,000 MORE jobs a month since April 2012.  This is the best April-July jobs growth number since 2005.
  • In "raw" unadjusted numbers,  77,000 jobs have been LOST in the last three months.   That's an DECREASE of 26,000 jobs a month since April 2012.  Despite the fact that this number represents a loss, this is the best April-July jobs growth in unadjusted numbers since 2007.     

How many PRIVATE-SECTOR jobs were created over the past three months from April 2012 to July 2012?
  • In seasonally adjusted numbers, 361,0000 private jobs have been CREATED in the last three months.  That's 120,000 MORE private jobs a month since April 2012.
  • In "raw" unadjusted numbers,  1,652,000 private jobs have been CREATED in the last three months.   That's an increase of 551,000 PRIVATE jobs a month since April 2012.  This is the best April-July private sector growth in unadjusted numbers since 2006. 


How many GOVERNMENT jobs were created over the past three months from April 2012 to July 2012?
  • In seasonally adjusted numbers, 47,0000 government jobs have been LOST in the last three months.  That's 16,000 FEWER government jobs a month since April 2012.
  • In "raw" unadjusted numbers,  1,729,000 government jobs have been LOST in the last three months.   That's a decrease of 576,000 GOVERNMENT jobs a month since April 2012.
  • Government job loss in summer is primarily the result of layoffs in the education sector.  Most of these jobs are added back in September. 

How many more people are working over the past three months, from April 2012 to July 2012?
  • In seasonally adjusted numbers, 355,000 MORE people are working now vs. April 2012.  That's 118,000 new workers for each of the past three months, from April to July 2012.  This is the best April-July increase in people working since since 2006. 
  • In "raw" unadjusted numbers, 1,131,000 MORE people are working now vs. April 2012.  That's 377,000 new workers per each of those 3 months. This is the best April-July increase in people working (in unadjusted numbers) since since 2007. 

How many jobs total were created in 2012 to date?  Private sector jobs in 2012?  Government jobs in 2012?  People working in 2012?

How many jobs total were created over the past year from July 2012 to July 2012?  Private sector jobs over the past year?  Government jobs over the past year?  People working over the past year?

How many jobs have been created since the "trough" of the recession in late 2009/early 2010 to now, July 2012?  How many more people working since that time?


    How many jobs were created in the last month, July 2012?


    What gets counted as "jobs" and who gets counted as "working"?

    You will see reports here for both the number of "jobs" and the number of people "working".

    There are two parts of the BLS numbers:

    1) The "jobs numbers" refer to the Establishment Report; that is, employing "establishments". This is basically what is included and excluded in the Establishment report:

    "Employment data refer to persons on establishment payrolls who received pay for any part of the pay period that includes the 12th day of the month. Data exclude proprietors, the unincorporated self-employed, unpaid volunteer or family workers, farm workers, and domestic workers. Salaried officers of corporations are included. Government employment covers only civilian employees; military personnel are excluded. Employees of the Central Intelligence Agency, the National Security Agency, the National Imagery and Mapping Agency, and the Defense Intelligence Agency also are excluded." (Found HERE.)
    Therefore, independent contractors who are paid as 1099 employees would NOT be included in those numbers, neither would people starting their own small businesses, whether incorporated self-employed or non-incorporated self-employed. Farmers would also NOT be considered in the monthly "jobs" reports.

    2)  
    However, the Current Population Survey counts people from their own perspective; in other words, it doesn't talk to employers, it talks to people. It asks people if they are working for money in any given month. This is the study from which we get the unemployment rate and the number of people "working". Independent contractors are included in that count. 

    The count of people who are employed is always higher by some 9,000,000 people as it includes farmers and people who are self-employed along with a few other groups of workers.  There were about 9,615,000 unincorporated self-employed workers in July 2012, so this is where independent contractors would be reported.  There were also about 5,256,000 incorporated self-employed workers in July 2012.
    (Note:  All of my employment number reports are based on monthly reports and data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  Monthly numbers reports are based on the monthly Employment Situation Report.  The Employment Situation report includes month over month and year over year jobs numbers.  My analysis is taken from the monthly BLS data copied to an Excel spreadsheet every month.  I calculate detailed percentage increases/decreases, 3 month numbers, 2011 to date numbers, and I compare jobs numbers to those at the time of Obama's inauguration and at the "trough" of the recession.)

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