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Friday, June 5, 2015

How Many Jobs Were Created or Lost in May 2015?

How Many Jobs Were Created (Gained) or Lost by firms, companies, or government employers in the U.S. in May 2015?

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June 2015 numbers were released Thursday, July 2.
More information HERE.
June: +223,000 jobs, Unemp. Rate down to 5.3%.

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  • 280,000 TOTAL payroll jobs were ADDED or CREATED in seasonally adjusted numbers.  This number was about 55,000 jobs larger than what was projected.
  • 262,000 PRIVATE payroll sector jobs were ADDED or CREATED in seasonally adjusted numbers.
  • 18,000 GOVERNMENT (federal, state, and local) jobs were ADDED or CREATED in April. 
  • 272,000 MORE people employed.
  • 630,000 MORE people employed full-time. 
  • 232,000 FEWER people employed part-time.
  • 72,000 MORE people employed part-time involuntarily.  (In other words, people who want full-time work but can only find part-time work.)  This number has generally been going down, even when the total number of people working part-time has increased.  This means that, of people working part-time this month, in MAY, more were working part-time because they couldn't find a full-time job.  But in the past year, the number of people employed part-time involuntarily, because they couldn't find a full-time job, has decreased by 616,000.
  • 125,000 MORE people unemployed.
  • Unemployment rate increased slightly to 5.5%.  This was actually a very small increase, from 5.44% up to 5.51%.
  • The alternate unemployment rate stayed the same at 10.8%. 
  • 397,000 MORE people in the civilian labor force (people either working or looking for work).  What happened to the labor force in May?  Continue reading below...

In NET numbers, NO jobs were lost in May 2015. 

If there are jobs losses, that means that there are fewer new jobs, fewer people being hired, than people being fired or jobs being cut.  If there are jobs gains, that means that there are MORE new jobs, MORE people being hired, than people being fired or jobs being cut. 

Every month since September 2010, we have had more new jobs created than jobs lost.  This is the longest period of consecutive job growth since these records have been kept.
  
Did people leave the labor force in despair, discouragement, and misery?

The labor force in the United States is huge and volatile.  Millions of people enter and leave the labor force every month in the United States; you can find more specifics HERE. 

But here's what happened to people in May:
  • In April, there were 157,072,000 people in the civilian labor force.
  • 2,319,000 who were not in the labor force in April entered the labor force and started LOOKING FOR WORK in May.
  • 4,388,000 who were not in the labor force in April entered the labor force and started WORKING in May. 
  • Meanwhile, 2,008,000 people who had been looking for work in April STOPPED LOOKING FOR WORK and left the labor force in May.  This is the smallest number of unemployed people who "dropped out" of the labor force since late 2008.  It is also the lowest number of unemployed people DROPPING OUT of the labor force in any May of the past 7 years. 
  • And 4,394,000 people who had been employed in April STOPPED WORKING (and were not looking for work) in May.  A big chunk of these people probably retired, though we don't know that for sure.  This is the highest number of employed people who stopped working and left the labor force in May since 2007.  So far in 2015, we have had more people on average per month who have stopped working and left the labor force than ever before.  
  • For every unemployed person who "gave up" for some reason and stopped looking for work and left the labor force, there were over TWO EMPLOYED people who left their jobs and left the labor force.
     
  • For every unemployed person who "gave up" for some reason and stopped looking for work, approximately THREE people (3.34) entered the labor force and either started looking for work or started working.  This is the highest percentage of people who entered the labor force compared to unemployed people "dropping out" since early 2008. 
  • These numbers, plus adjustments for relatively small numbers of people turning 16, people dying, people leaving or entering the country, resulted in a larger labor force of 157,469,000 in May.  This is the largest labor force that we have EVER had in any May  There are still about 1,840,000 more people in the labor force this May than a year ago.   

As usual, the numbers in any one month need to be taken with a grain of salt, as any movements in any one month are not necessarily meaningful trends.  However, trends that continue over a period of months are meaningful.

However, we have now had 63 consecutive months of private sector job creation, a record as long as such numbers have been kept.   And we have now had 55 consecutive months of total job creation, a record as long as such numbers have been kept. 

But how many jobs were LOST in May?

All jobs numbers reported monthly by Bureau of Labor Statistics are NET jobs numbers.  In other words, they represent the number of jobs gained (newly created jobs) after all job losses are subtracted.  If there are job gains, that means that there are more new jobs, more people being hired, than people being fired or jobs being cut. 

The more specific numbers of new hires and number of jobs cut are detailed in the monthly Job Openings, Layoffs, and Turnover Survey (JOLTS) which is published about six weeks after the monthly jobs reports.  This link "How Many People were fired in 2014?" provides a more in-depth explanation of how many people lose their jobs and how many people get new jobs every month.  For example, in 2014 over 55,000 people were fired or laid off on average each DAY... but an average of 160,000 people were HIRED each DAY in 2014.

To Summarize:  

In summary, there are more newly-created payroll jobs and more people employed in May, more newly-created jobs than in April, and many more new jobs than were predicted.  There was a significant increase in the number of employed people, and the number of people working full-time increased significantly.  The number of people working part-time by choice decreased; the number of people working part-time involuntarily increased but only slightly.  
The unemployment rate stayed virtually the same as many people entered the labor force and started either working or looking for work, the number of unemployed people increased slightly, and the number of employed people increased. 


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How Many Jobs Has Obama Created or Lost? (Updated for May 2015)


How many NET jobs created or lost under Obama* as of May 2015? How many private sector jobs have been lost or added during Obama's presidency?


How many new jobs in the last 6 years since Obama was inaugurated?  How many Americans were working or employed when Obama took office... compared to now?

Continue below.....

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June 2015 numbers were released Thursday, July 2.
Details HERE. 
June: +223,000 jobs, Unemp. Rate down to 5.3%.

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Since the "trough" of the recession in late 2009/early 2010 in seasonally adjusted numbers:
  • 12,030,000 MORE payroll jobs in total
  • 12,565,000 MORE private sector jobs
  • 10,782,000 MORE people working (includes self-employed and agricultural workers)
How many workers were full-time or part-time at the "trough" of the recession in late 2009/early 2010 compared to now?

  • 10,843,000 MORE people working full-time.
  • 27,000 MORE people working part-time.  
  • (Yes, despite what you may have heard, from the depth of the recession until now, we have many more additional people working full-time vs. part-time jobs. When a recession hits, companies generally cut back on full-time workers first.  When companies start hiring again, the number of full-time workers increases.)

Since Bush left office & Obama took office (January 2009) in seasonally adjusted numbers:
  • 7,702,000 MORE jobs in total
  • 8,340,000 MORE private sector jobs
  • 6,643,000 MORE people working

How many workers were full-time or part-time when Obama was inaugurated compared to now?

  • 5,584,000 MORE people working full-time
  • 1,129,000 MORE people working part-time











Have any private jobs been lost (net) over the past 63 months since February 2010?


NO!
  • 63 months of consecutive private-sector job growth.
  • The longest consecutive period of private-sector job increases since this number has been recorded. 
  • ALL jobs losses since the recession (January 2008 was the prior peak of jobs) have been made up, added back, or recovered.

Have any jobs been lost (net) over the past 56 months since September 2010?

NO!
  • 56 months of consecutive overall job growth.

Are more people unemployed now than when Obama took office in January 2009?  

NO!
  • Despite 3,259,000 MORE people in the labor force (either working or actively looking for work) now vs. January 2009, there are 3,384,000 FEWER people unemployed now than in January 2009.

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    June 2015 numbers were released Thursday, July 2.
    Details HERE. 
    June: +223,000 jobs, Unemp. Rate down to 5.3%.

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*What's the difference between "net" and "gross" jobs gained and lost?


Let's get something straight:  Jobs are lost every week and every month. People are fired, people are laid off, businesses or locations are closed and everybody is let go.  

Also people quit every week.  You yourself, dear reader,  may have quit a job at some point in time. 


But people are also HIRED every week and every month.  New businesses open, businesses expand, businesses replace people who have left or been fired.  Every week.  You yourself, dear reader, may have been hired for a job at some point in time.This happens in good times and bad. 

Yes, even in bad times, people are getting hired.  Even in good times, people are let go.  

Now:  The monthly jobs report, upon which this article is based, presents estimates based on surveys as to how many jobs are gained or lost in a given month.  Those numbers are based on the number of new jobs (people getting hired, businesses opening) MINUS the number of jobs that have been cut (people getting fired, people quitting, businesses closing or cutting back).



The monthly jobs report therefore reports NET job growth or loss.  


For 56 months in this country, we have had MORE jobs being added than we have had jobs being cut.  For 63 months in the private sector (not counting federal workers, state or local workers such as teachers, firemen, cops, or people who staff the DMV, only counting people who work for private businesses), we have had MORE jobs added than we have had jobs being cut.

To reiterate:  How many jobs have been created in the last 6 years versus how many jobs have been lost?
All numbers provided on monthly jobs reports, which is what the series on jobs created/lost under Obama is based, are NET jobs numbers.  In other words, they reflect gains after all job losses are subtracted, or they reflect job losses after all gains are added. 
For the past 63 months (as of May 2015), we have had NET gains in private jobs numbers every month.  In other words, in every month since February 2010, more private jobs have been created than have been lost.  In every month since September 2010, more jobs in total have been created than have been lost.  This is the longest consecutive period of job growth since these numbers have been recorded.
Fact check and important information on these jobs numbers...

The above jobs numbers are from the BLS jobs report of May 2015, which was released in early June 2015.  The surveys used to gather these numbers are taken as of the week which includes the 12th day of the month, in this case, May 12, 2015. 

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Thursday, June 4, 2015

May 2015 Unemployment Rate; Jobs

May Jobs:  At first glance, NOTHING NEGATIVE.

The pundits were a bit short on new jobs when they contemplated May. 280,000 new jobs were added in May, many more than the 226,000 anticipated. The unemployment rate crept up to 5.5% as about 400,000 people entered the labor force. At first glance, there is NOTHING NEGATIVE in this jobs report. Very bullish, very positive numbers.
If there are many more jobs, as there were in May 2015, but the unemployment rate stays the same or goes up a tenth, as it did in May 2015, this would be a good indication that more people have entered the labor force in May.  This was certainly true in May, as 397,000 people ENTERED the civilian labor force, the largest increase in five months.   


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June 2015 numbers were released Thursday, July 2.
Details HERE. 
June: +223,000 jobs, Unemp. Rate down to 5.3%.

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There was much concern back in March when the number of jobs added was very low.  I suggested that the less-than-expected increase in the number of jobs may have reflected companies having a harder time filling positions in February and into March:  It was colder and people may have stayed out of the winter job market a bit longer than usual.  I suggested that we would see a rebound in the next months, and the low numbers in March were not a reason to be concerned.  I remain convinced that I was right.  

May 2015 Highlights (Specific reports listed below):
  • +280,000 total new payroll jobs; +262,000 new private sector jobs.  These increases are a bit larger than the consensus of the "pundits", who estimated that we would add about 226,000 jobs in May.  
  • "The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for March was revised from +85,000 to +119,000, and the change for April was revised from +223,000 to +221,000. With these revisions, employment gains in March and April combined were 32,000 more than previously reported. 
  • Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 207,000 per month.
  • Unemployment rate increased slightly by .1% to 5.5% as about 397,000 people entered the labor force and started to look for work.
  • Alternate unemployment rate stayed the same at 10.8% as the numbers of discouraged and marginally attched workers fell and the number of involuntary part-time workers increased slightly.  
  • Labor force participation rate increased .1%.  The number of people in the labor force increased by 397,000.  The reported number of people employed increased by 272,000, the reported number of people unemployed increased by 125,000.
  • Number of people working full-time increased by about 630,000 while number of people working part-time decreased by about 232,000.  That's 2,612,000 MORE people working full-time over the past year, since May 2014, and 296,000 MORE people working part-time over the past year. 
  • The number of involuntary part-time workers (people working part-time because they couldn't find full-time work) decreased by 72,000 in May, and it has declined 616,000 over the past year, since May 2015.
  • The number of long-term unemployed (people looking for work over half a year) dropped by 23,000 in May, and has dropped 849,000 over the past year, since May 2014.
Since the "trough" of the recession in late 2009/early 2010 in seasonally adjusted numbers:
  • 12.0 million MORE jobs in total
  • 12.6 million MORE private sector jobs
  • 10.8 million MORE people working
  • 10.8 million MORE people working full-time.
  • 27,000 FEWER people working part-time.  
  • (Yes, despite what you may have heard, from the depth of the recession until now, we have many more additional people working full-time vs. part-time jobs. When a recession hits, companies generally cut back on full-time workers first.  When companies start hiring again, the number of full-time workers increases.)
Since Bush left office & Obama took office (January 2009) in seasonally adjusted numbers:
  • 7.7 million MORE jobs in total
  • 8.3 million MORE private sector jobs
  • 6.6 million MORE people working
  • 5.6 million MORE people working full-time
  • 1.1 million MORE people working part-time

May 2015 reports: (Notation on the links will be changed to "UPDATED for MAY" when the updated reports become available.) 


May 2015 Jobs Numbers Preview as of Thursday night, June 4: 


"The pundits" expect about 225,000 to 226,000 more jobs when the BLS counts are released tomorrow (Friday) morning at 8:30 a.m., with the unemployment rate staying even at 5.4%.  

If there are many more jobs but the unemployment rate stays the same or goes up a tenth, this would be a good indication that more people have entered the labor force in May.  The outlook for jobs continues to be bullish, but the two consumer confidence calculators come up with different outlooks.

Other than that, unemployment claims, both new claims and continuing claims, continue to be VERY VERY low, lower than they have been for 15 years.
   
  • The ADP private payroller report came out Wednesday.  ADP estimated an additional 201,000 private sector jobs in May.  Estimates for April were decreased slightly from 169,000 to 165,000.  ADP believes that the numbers of additional private sector jobs had decreased for five months in a row, and this report represents a turnaround.  (Please be aware that the number of private sector jobs had continued to increase from December 2014 to April, just not at the pace of increase of fall of 2014.)

    Comments from ADP:
    "The labor market moved back up to the 200,000 jobs added mark in May, a number which has been something of a bellwether for healthy employment growth,” said Carlos Rodriguez, president and chief executive officer of ADP. “We hope that the May number is the beginning of an upward trend going into the summer months.”

    Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “The job market posted a solid gain in May. Employment growth remains near the average of the past couple of years. At the current pace of job growth the economy will be back to full employment by this time next year. The only blemishes are the decline in mining jobs due to the collapse in oil prices and the decline in manufacturing due to the strong dollar."
  • "U.S. job growth was likely solid in May and wages probably picked up a bit, suggesting sufficient momentum in the economy for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates later this year.

    Nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 225,000 positions last month after rising by 223,000 in April, according to a Reuters survey of economists. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady near a seven-year low of 5.4 percent...
    Payroll gains have slowed from last year's average of 260,000 jobs per month. Economists put the blame on steep job cuts in the mining sector and the restraining impact of a strong U.S. currency on exports and the factory sector.
    If the payroll gain comes in as expected in May, it would mark an acceleration from the first quarter's average of 184,000 jobs per month.
    "It is perhaps a testament to how far the improvement in the labor market has progressed that job gains less than 250,000 now seem to be considered lackluster," said Michelle Girard, a senior economist at RBS in Stamford, Connecticut.
  • Bloomberg writes:  "Data on Thursday showed fewer workers filed applications for unemployment benefits last week, signaling the U.S. job market remains firm following a slowdown at the start of the year. A report Friday from the Labor Department may show steady gains in hiring, with economists predicting a 226,000 increase in non-farm payrolls for May, after they rose 223,000 in April."
  • The Consumer Confidence Index of the Conference Board  increased in May: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had declined in April, increased moderately in May. The Index now stands at 95.4 (1985=100), up from 94.3 in April. The Present Situation Index increased from 105.1 last month to 108.1 in May. The Expectations Index edged down to 86.9 from 87.1 in April. “Consumer confidence improved modestly in May, after declining sharply in April,” said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “After a three-month slide, the Present Situation Index increased, propelled by a more positive assessment of the labor market. Expectations, however, were relatively flat following a steep decline in April. While current conditions in the second quarter appear to be improving, consumers still remain cautious about the short-term outlook."
  • However, while the Consumer Confidence Index was improved in may, the May Consumer Sentiment index compiled by the University of Michigan  showed just the opposite; it fell from 95.9 to 90.7 after rising from March to April.
      
  • This month job search engine Linkup.com was somewhat lower than most other estimates.  Linkup projects a net gain of 185,000 jobs in May, lower than the 223,000 jobs that were added in April.  (They base their projections largely on job openings.)  They also said:"And with the 1.7% drop in the blended average of new and total job openings on LinkUp in April, we are forecasting that only 185,000 jobs were added to the U.S. economy in May, moderately lower than the consensus estimate of a net gain of 225,000 jobs." 
  • Finally, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits AND the number of Americans filing for continuing benefits continue to be very, very low.  From the Department of Labor:
    "In the week ending May 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 276,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week's revised level. ... The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.6 percent for the week ending May 23, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week's unrevised rate. This is the lowest level for insured unemployment since November 11, 2000 when it was 2,161,000." 

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