NOV Fri, Dec 2: +178,000 jobs. Unemployment rate drops to 4.6%.NOV details here!.. Jobs since Obama took office?... Unemp. rate under Obama?

Friday, October 2, 2015

How Many Jobs Were Created or Lost in September 2015?

How Many Jobs Were Created (Gained) by firms, companies, or government employers in the U.S. in September 2015?  How many jobs were LOST in September 2015?






  • 142,000 TOTAL payroll jobs were ADDED or CREATED in seasonally adjusted numbers.  This number was slightly less than what was projected.
  • 118,000 PRIVATE payroll sector jobs were ADDED or CREATED in seasonally adjusted numbers.
  • 24,000 GOVERNMENT (federal, state, and local) jobs were ADDED or CREATED in September. 
  • 236,000 FEWER people working.
  • 185,000 FEWER people employed full-time. 
  • 53,000 MORE people employed part-time.
  • 447,000 FEWER people employed part-time involuntarily.  (In other words, people who want full-time work but can only find part-time work.)  This number has generally been going down, even when the total number of people working part-time has increased.  This means that, of people working part-time this month, in SEPTEMBER, fewer were working part-time because they couldn't find a full-time job. In in the past year, the number of people employed part-time involuntarily (because they couldn't find a full-time job) has decreased by 1,022,000.
  • 114,000 FEWER people unemployed.
  • Unemployment rate stayed the same at 5.1%.  There actually was a decrease in the unemployment rate, from 5.11% down to 5.05%.
  • The alternate unemployment rate also decreased significantly, from 10.3% to 10.0%. 
  • 350,000 FEWER people in the civilian labor force (people either working or looking for work).  The drop in the size of the labor force appears to be due to people who STOPPED WORKING and left the labor force.  What happened to the labor force in SEPTEMBER?  Continue reading below...

In NET numbers, NO jobs were lost in SEPTEMBER 2015.  Even though the number of new jobs was not great, it was a positive number, meaning that we continue to create jobs in the United States. 

If there are jobs losses, that means that there are fewer new jobs, fewer people being hired, than people being fired or jobs being cut.  If there are jobs gains, that means that there are MORE new jobs, MORE people being hired, than people being fired or jobs being cut. 


Every month since September 2010, we have had more new jobs created than jobs lost.  This is the longest period of consecutive job growth since these records have been kept.
  

The size of the Labor Force declined in September.  Did people leave the labor force in despair, discouragement, and misery?

The labor force in the United States is huge and volatile.  Millions of people enter and leave the labor force every month in the United States; you can find more specifics HERE. 


But here's what happened to people in September:

  • In August, there were 157,065,000 people in the civilian labor force.
  • 2,144,000 who were not in the labor force in August ENTERED the labor force and started LOOKING FOR WORK in September.
  • 4,016,000 who were not in the labor force in August ENTERED the labor force and started WORKING in September. 
  • Meanwhile, 2,149,000 people who had been looking for work in August STOPPED LOOKING FOR WORK and left the labor force in September.  The number of "droputs" (people who were unemployed and stopped looking for work) continues to decline and is as low as it was in early to mid 2008, before the whole economy collapsed.   
  • And 4,515,000 people who had been employed in August STOPPED WORKING (and were not looking for work) in September.  A big chunk of these people are probably retiring Baby Boomers though we don't know that for sure.  But when someone stops working and doesn't bother to look for work, it usually means that they have voluntarily left their jobs; otherwise they would continue to look for work.  2015 is on track to have the largest number of employed people who stop working and leave the labor force EVER.  Again, think retirement! 
     
  • I'll repeat that:  So far in 2015, we have had more people on average per month who have stopped working and left the labor force than ever before.  69% of the people who left the labor force in September were previously EMPLOYED, not people who were looking for work and "gave up" in despair.  That is a percentage that started decreasing in 2008 through 2010, and has been increasing since 2010.  
  • For every unemployed person who "gave up" for some reason and stopped looking for work and left the labor force, there were TWO EMPLOYED people who left their jobs and left the labor force.
     
  • For every unemployed person who "gave up" for some reason and stopped looking for work, approximately THREE people (3.00) ENTERED the labor force and either started looking for work or started working.  2015 is recording the highest percentages of people who entered the labor force compared to unemployed people "dropping out" since early to mid 2008. 
  • These numbers, plus adjustments for relatively small numbers of people turning 16, people dying, people leaving or entering the country, resulted in a smaller labor force of 156,715,000 in September.  Though a smaller labor force than in August, this is the largest labor force that we have EVER had in any September of any year.  There are still about 870,000 more people in the labor force this September than a year ago.   

As usual, the numbers in any one month need to be taken with a grain of salt, as any movements in any one month are not necessarily meaningful trends.  However, trends that continue over a period of months are meaningful.

However, we have now had 67 consecutive months of private sector job creation, a record as long as such numbers have been kept.   And we have now had 60 consecutive months of total job creation, a record as long as such numbers have been kept. 

But how many jobs were LOST in September?

All jobs numbers reported monthly by Bureau of Labor Statistics are NET jobs numbers.  In other words, they represent the number of jobs gained (newly created jobs) after all job losses are subtracted.  If there are job gains, that means that there are more new jobs, more people being hired, than people being fired or jobs being cut. 

The more specific numbers of new hires and number of jobs cut are detailed in the monthly Job Openings, Layoffs, and Turnover Survey (JOLTS) which is published about six weeks after the monthly jobs reports.  This link "How Many People were fired in 2014?" provides a more in-depth explanation of how many people lose their jobs and how many people get new jobs every month.  For example, in 2014 over 55,000 people were fired or laid off on average each DAY... but an average of 160,000 people were HIRED each DAY in 2014.

To Summarize:  

In summary, there are more newly-created payroll jobs in September, but there were fewer new jobs than predicted.  There was a small decrease in the number of employed people, and the number of people working full-time decreased.  The number of people working part-time by choice increased; the number of people working part-time involuntarily decreased.  


The unemployment rate stayed the same as more formerly employed people left the labor force, probably reflecting people retiring.

The size of the labor force declined moderately; however, an analysis of the flows data seems to indicate that the drop in the size of the labor force may have been mostly due to people who retired in September. 


No comments:

Post a Comment

I appreciate intelligent comments and questions, including those that are at odds with anything posted here. I have elected not to screen comments before they are published; however, any comments that are in any way insulting, caustic, or intentionally inflammatory will be deleted without notice. Spam will also be immediately deleted.