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Friday, December 4, 2015

November 2015 Unemployment Rate, Jobs

The November Jobs Reports were released this morning, Friday, December 4. The numbers are about what was expected; decent jobs numbers but not exceptional. They almost surely mean that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its next meeting in December.

November Highlights:
  • 211,000 total new payroll jobs; 197,000 new private sector jobs; 14,000 increase in the number of government jobs.  These numbers are very close to the 200,000 jobs that the pundits and prognosticators predicted.  
  • If there is a concern in this report, it is the increase in the number of people working part-time because they can't find full-time work.  However, this number is volatile and may well decline next month, as it has generally for the past 4-5 years.  Full-time/part-time breakdown will be available HERE later today.  
  • The BLS increased both the September and October estimates.  September numbers were increased slightly by 8,000 from +137,000 to +145,000, and the October estimate was increased by 27,000 from +271,000 to +298,000.   From the BLS:  "With these revisions, employment gains in September and October combined were 35,000 more than previously reported. Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 218,000 per month."
  • The unemployment rate stayed exactly the same at 5.0% as the number of unemployed increased slightly by 29,000 and as the number of people employed increased by 244,000
  • The number of people not in the labor force (people 16 years of age and older who are in school, retired, e home with children, etc.) decreased slightly to 94,446,000.  
  • Alternate unemployment rate increased slightly from 9.8% to 9.9%.  That decline primarily reflected an increase of about 300,000 in the number of people who were working part-time "involuntarily" because they couldn't find full-time jobs. (That number has declined by 800,000 over the past year and about 1,629,000 over the past two years.) 
  • As mentioned above, the labor force participation rate increased slightly to 62.5%.  The labor force participation rate has been between  62.4%  and 62.6% for the past five months.  Year over year, we have about 900,000 MORE people in the labor force DESPITE large numbers of Baby Boomers retiring.  Remember that there is NO ideal labor force participation rate and most of the ongoing decrease in the labor force participation rate is due to these large numbers of retiring Baby Boomers.
  • The overall number of people employed increased by  244,000.  
  • The number of people working full-time increased by 3,000 last month; the number of people working part-time increased by about 137,000 last month. The number of people working part-time INVOLUNTARILY increased by 319,000 and the number of people working part-time VOLUNTARILY decreased by 12,000.  There are 2.5 million MORE people working full-time than there were a year ago, and 455,000 FEWER people working part-time than a year ago.

November 2015 reports: (As usual, notation on the links will be changed to "UPDATED for November" when the updated reports become available.  Not all reports are updated every month.) 

More highlights and reports will continue to be posted here throughout the day and over the weekend.  Please check back!

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