AUG: +151,000 jobs. Unemployment rate steady at 4.9%. AUG details here!.. Jobs since Obama took office?... Unemp. rate under Obama?

Friday, July 8, 2011

How Many Jobs Has Obama Created or Lost? (June 2011 Updates)


This report has been updated:
How Many Jobs Added or Lost under Obama? (December 2013 update)


The numbers in this article are jobs numbers as of June 2011, over a year ago.  For the latest numbers & reports, please click on one of the links above or below.

Private & Govt Jobs Month by Month 2011 & 2012 

How Many Women Have Lost or Gained Jobs under Obama?

  • Job Growth & Loss Year by Year Since 1999




  • Who Are Those 90 Million People Not in the Labor Force?




  • What Has Obama Done to Create Jobs?


  • Remember Those ZERO Jobs Last August? Revisions...



  • Initial Jobless Claims for the Past Four Years (Graph)




  • How Many Jobs Lost Before Obama Took Office?



  • The following are numbers for June 2011, over a year ago.  For the latest numbers & reports, please click on one of the above links.

    How has Obama done on jobs?  How many jobs have been lost or gained during the Obama administration?  Have more new jobs been created or have jobs been lost under Obama to date?

    Note:  Despite the rise in the unemployment rate in June 2011, total number of jobs did continue to increase.  

    The Democrats claim that 2.1 million private sector jobs have been created in the Obama administration.  Is this true?

    Yes.  Continue reading for explanation. 
    In seasonally adjusted numbers as of June 2011, 2,180,000 private-sector jobs have been created since the bottom of the recession.  

    Here's a summary of data from the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics).  All numbers lost to the "trough" of the recession reflect jobs lost between the time Obama took office and the lowest point of the recession:

    Seasonally adjusted:
    • All jobs lost from the time Obama took office to "trough" (bottom of recession):                                                          4,303,000
    • All jobs gained since "trough":                                1,771,000
    Net loss in seasonally-adjusted jobs:               2,532,000                      

    "Raw:" numbers not seasonally adjusted:
    • Jobs lost from the time Obama took office to "trough":       4,246,000      
    • Jobs gained since "trough":                                     4,770,000
    Net gain in raw unadjusted job numbers:         524,000 


    How many private sector jobs have been gained or lost since Obama took office?

    Seasonally adjusted:
    • Private-sector jobs lost to "trough" (bottom of recession):      4,189,000
    • Private-sector jobs gained since "trough":                           2,181,000
             
    *(This is the number often used by Obama and the Democrats as the number of private jobs created.  It is a correct number, but it is a seasonally-adjusted number.  In "real" unadjusted numbers, 5,110,000 private sector jobs have been created.)  
    Net loss in seasonally-adjusted private-sector jobs :           2,008,000                      

    "Raw:" numbers not seasonally adjusted: 
    • Private-sector jobs lost to "trough":                       4,151,000 
    • Private-sector jobs gained since "trough":               5,104,000                                   
    Net gain in "raw" unadjusted private-sector jobs:
                                                                                    953,000  

    How many workers have been laid off or hired during the Obama administration?

    Seasonally adjusted:  
    • Fewer people working to "trough" :                        4,260,000 
    • More people working since "trough":                       1,374,000      
    Net loss in seasonally-adjusted number of people working:                                                                                                                                     2,887,000                          

    "Raw:" numbers not seasonally adjusted:
    • Fewer workers to "trough":                        3,637,000
    • More workers since "trough":                      3,320,000
    Net loss in "raw" unadjusted number of people working:                307,000    
        
         
    Can you summarize this?
    • Obama was inaugurated in January 2009 when the economy was in free fall and we were losing about 700,000 jobs a month.  A total of 4,400,000 jobs were lost before Obama took office.  
    • The employment situation did not bottom out until late 2009 or early 2010.  An additional 4,300,000 jobs were lost between the time that Obama took office and the bottom ("trough") of the recession.  
    • That's a total job loss of 8,700,000 jobs over approximately 2 years.
    • Since the economy started to add jobs under Obama, 1,700,000+ jobs have been added using seasonally-adjusted numbers (See below). 
    • Since the economy started to add jobs under Obama, 4,770,000 jobs have been added using "real" unadjusted numbers.  We have now added more jobs in "real" numbers than were lost during the first year of Obama's term.       
    • We still need many, many more jobs to overcome the loss of jobs that started in 2008 and to make up for the increase in population since 2008. 
    • We're doing better in terms of making up for lost jobs than Reagan did at this point in his presidency and than FDR did at this time during his presidency. 

    How did you come up with these numbers?  Why isn't there one number instead of all of these?     

    Counting jobs or workers is very tricky. 


    According to three of the counts used, we have still lost more jobs and workers in the first year of Obama's administration, when the economy was struggling to pull out of recession, than we have gained during the last year of Obama's administration when we have experienced job growth.  We are still running a jobs/workers deficit of approximately 400,000 to 2,200,000 since Obama took office. 

    But according to one count used, the unadjusted, actual "raw" count of jobs created when not adjusted for seasonal variance, we have pulled into positive territory and there are 524,000 more jobs now than there were when Obama was inaugurated and the economy was in free fall.

    To repeat, counting or comparing jobs or workers is tricky.

    There's usually no one number that explains anything, and most monthly numbers need to be seen as "trends", not absolutes.  People use the unemployment rate, but even that can vary for so many reasons that don't really reflect the true state of the labor market.

    So.. a few explanations and more detail:

    What is a "trough"?  When did we hit the low point of jobs and workers?  When did we hit the high point of unemployment?  

    I use the term "trough" to designate the lowest point of jobs or workers in this recession.  The various counts reach their "troughs" in various months, so it may be a bit confusing.  The unemployment rate reached its high point in October 2009.  The seasonally adjusted number of workers reached its low point in December 2009, but so many workers had dropped out of the work force that the unemployment rate had actually come down.  In raw, unadjusted numbers of workers and jobs, we reached our nadir in January 2010.  The seasonally-adjusted number of jobs also reached its low point in January 2010. 

    How Many Jobs were Lost from the time Obama took office until the "trough" of jobs lost?
    • In seasonally adjusted numbers, employers reported 133,549,000 jobs in January 2009.  At the trough of the recession in February 2010, there were 129,246,000 jobs.  That's a loss of 4,303,000 jobs from the time Obama took office until the "trough" of the recession. 
    • In "raw" numbers (not adjusted for seasonal variances), employers reported 131,555,000 jobs in January 2009.  At the trough of the recession in January 2010, there were 127,309,000 jobs.  That's a loss of  4,246,000 jobs from the time Obama took office until the "trough" of the recession. 

    How Many Fewer Were Employed from the time Obama took office until the "trough" of employment?
    • In seasonally adjusted numbers, 142,221,000 people reported themselves as employed in January 2009.  At the trough of the recession in December 2009, 137,960,000 people reported themselves as employed.  That's a loss of 4,261,000 employed people from the time Obama took office until the "trough" of the recession.
    • In "raw" numbers (not adjusted for seasonal variances), 140,436,000 people reported themselves as employed in January 2009.  At the trough of the recession in January 2010, 136,809,000 people reported themselves as employed.  That's a loss of 3,627,000 employed people from the time Obama took office until the "trough" of the recession. . 

    What was the unemployment rate when Obama took office?  How high did it go? 
    • For the record, when Obama took office in January 2009, the "official" unemployment rate in seasonally adjusted numbers was 7.7%, with 11,919,000 people reported themselves as unemployed and actively looking.  In "raw" numbers not adjusted for seasonal variance, the unemployment rate was 8.5% with 13,009,000 people reporting themselves as unemployed and actively looking for work.
    • At the trough of the recession in late 2009/early 2010, the "official" unemployment rate in seasonally adjusted numbers was 10.1% in October 2009 with 15,612,000 people (out of a labor force of about 154,000,000) reporting themselves as unemployed.  In "raw" numbers not adjusted for seasonal variance, the unemployment rate reached a peak of 10.6% in January 2010 with 16,147,000 (out of a labor force of about 153,000,000) reporting themselves as unemployed and actively looking for work.
    • Now, in June 2011, the "official" unemployment rate in seasonally adjusted numbers is 9.2% with 14,087,000 (out of a labor force of 153,421,000).  In unadjusted "raw" numbers the unemployment rate is 9.3%.

    How many jobs have been created since the "trough" of the recession in late 2009/early 2010 to now, June 2011?
    • In seasonally adjusted numbers, 1,771,000 jobs have been created since the "trough" of the recession in January 2010.
    • In raw unadjusted numbers, 4,770,000 jobs have been created since the "trough" of the recession in January 2010.


    How many more people reported they were working since the "trough" of the recession in late 2009/early 2010 to now, June 2011?
    • In seasonally adjusted numbers, 1,374,000 more people are working since the trough of the recession in December 2009.
    • In "raw" unadjusted numbers, 3,320,000 more people are working since the trough of the recession in January 2010.

    4 comments:

    1. It is very hard to see jobs gained.Here in oklahoma we've had manufacturings closings loss of a lot of jobs.Where are the jobs due from NAFTA thats what I would to know.All jobs goes to Mexico.Where are are our jobs in return?Oh I know they come back in cheap jobs and cheap ptoducts made from slave labor.Our goverment knows this is wrong!
      Also where are our jobs from China?They send one of the largest ships to our port full and goes back empty.The govement knows they send us contaminated products.
      Whats bad the American people do not really know to what extent our losses are.If really explained to a lot more would more would really be upset.The ones that really know is our selfish CEOs of ocompanys.They know well and our goverment is letting them get away with it.

      ReplyDelete
    2. obviously biased here at mollys...
      From politifact:
      During a May 16, 2011, interview with Bloomberg television, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., praised President Barack Obama’s record on jobs while taking a shot at former President George W. Bush.

      "We got in this situation where we had tax cuts for the wealthiest people in our country, which did not create jobs," she said. "In the first year of the Obama administration, more jobs were created in the private-sector than in the eight years of the Bush administration, with all of the tax cuts that President Bush had."

      According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the economy shed almost 4.2 million private-sector jobs during the first year of the Obama administration -- January 2009 through January 2010.

      Meanwhile, during eight years under Bush, the economy gained a net 188,000 private sector jobs.

      So while job growth under Bush was anemic by historical standards, it was still better than the 4.2 million jobs lost under Obama. That means Pelosi was wrong.

      ReplyDelete
      Replies
      1. Nothing here that a course for you in reading comprehension won't fix. First of all, in very big letters right near the top of this article it says:

        "The numbers in this article are jobs numbers as of June 2011, a year ago. For the latest numbers & reports, please click on one of the links above or below."

        And you will not find one reference here (or in any of the articles on my blog) to anything anybody, including Nancy Pelosi, said about jobs numbers. All of my data comes from the BLS tables as copied to my own spreadsheets. It makes no sense to compare the Bush record at the end of his 8 years with Obama's record now or in any one or two years. If you are going to compare Bush and Obama, there are only two ways to do this: Either from the start of their respective administrations to the same month (September 2012 for Obama, September 2004 for Bush) OR from the start of recovery of their respective administrations to the same number of months AFTER recovery started.

        So you too (and all of the Republicans) actually liked Obama so much that you thought he would IMMEDIATELY stem the tide of 800,000 jobs lost per month and start adding jobs? Do you think that McCain and the despicable P woman would also have immediately stemmed the tide of job loss and started adding jobs?

        You are complaining about the way Pelosi compares Obama and Bush, which is bogus, and then you make another bogus comparison between Obama and Bush.

        Delete
      2. I didn't finish. I'm not sure where you are getting your figures, but there was a loss of 646,000 private sector jobs during the Bush years. There were FEWER private sector jobs when Bush left office than when he took office.

        By those standards, Obama has already passed up Bush. There are 967,000 more private jobs now than there were when Obama took office.

        Delete

    I appreciate intelligent comments and questions, including those that are at odds with anything posted here. I have elected not to screen comments before they are published; however, any comments that are in any way insulting, caustic, or intentionally inflammatory will be deleted without notice. Spam will also be immediately deleted.