JAN# rlsed Fri, Feb 2: +200,000 jobs.

Unemployment stable at 4.1%...JAN jobs, unemployment rate HERE

Friday, December 6, 2013

How Many Jobs Created or Lost in November 2013?

203,000 new jobs were CREATED or ADDED last month, in the month of November 2013.  

The private sector generated (added) 196,000 new jobs and the government sector lost (decreased) 7,000 jobs in November 2013.

818,000 MORE people reported themselves as working in November 2013.  The number of people working in October was affected by the government shutdown, which caused the layoff of up to 800,000 workers.  The large increase in workers this month probably represents the large number of people who came back to work after the shutdown was over.      

The unemployment rate decreased to 7.2% in November 2013.  Last month's unemployment rate inched up, probably due to the effect of the government shutdown, as up to 800,000 people were idled in mid-October.  455,000 people entered the labor force in November; however, this could also be the result of the end of the government shutdown, as federal workers went back to work.  (The size of the labor force is volatile.  Read more HERE.)    The unemployment rate has been below 8.0% for 15 months in a row now, starting in Summer 2012.  

How many more or fewer people are working this month?  How many more or fewer jobs are there this month?  Were jobs lost or gained?

How many more jobs are there in November 2013 than there were in October 2013?

Let's look:
  • 203,000 MORE jobs in seasonally-adjusted numbers were reported by employers now than in October.
  • 421,000 MORE jobs in "raw" actual numbers not adjusted for seasonal variations were reported by employers now vs. October.  (Jobs are typically lost in summer in "raw numbers" as teachers leave their jobs, and jobs are gained as teachers return to work in the fall.  Also, seasonal hiring usually starts in October.)    

From the BLS:  All jobs, past 10 years.  Seasonally adjusted.

How many more private sector jobs are there in November than there were in October 2013?
From the BLS:  Private jobs, seasonally adjusted, last ten years

How many more (or fewer) government jobs are there in November than in October 2013?
  • 7,000 FEWER government jobs in seasonally-adjusted numbers were reported by government employers at all levels (federal, state, and local) now than in October.
  • 112,000 MORE government jobs in "raw" actual numbers not adjusted for seasonal variations were reported by government employers at all levels in November vs. October.  (Again, this is mostly due to teachers returning to work and being hired in the fall.) 

From the BLS:  All government jobs, seasonally adjusted, last ten years.

From the BLS:  Public school teachers at the local level, last ten years.  

How many more people are reporting themselves as working in November than in October 2013?  
  • 818,000 MORE people reported themselves as working in seasonally-adjusted numbers than were working in October.
  • 631,000 MORE people reported themselves as working in "raw" actual numbers not adjusted for seasonal variations than were working in October.
  • 652,000 MORE people reported themselves as working full-time in seasonally adjusted numbers in November vs. October.
  • 174,000 MORE people reported themselves as working part-time in seasonally adjusted numbers in November vs. October.  (Note:  The number people employed part-time and full-time may not equal the total number of people employed due to seasonal adjustment factors.)

From the BLS:  People employed (including self-employed) last ten years, seasonally adjusted.

Full-time workers: 
From the BLS:  Full-time workers, seasonally adjusted, last ten years.

Part-time workers:

From the BLS:  Part-time workers, seasonally adjusted, last ten years.
Note that the number of full-time workers DROPPED precipitously early in the recession (starting in late 2007) and started to rise slowly in late 2009, while the number of part-time workers went UP as the recession progressed and has stayed at an increased level since mid 2009.  This is the typical pattern of part-time vs. full-time work during a recession.  Because the recent recession was so severe, the pattern was exaggerated.
Note:  All of my employment number reports are based on monthly reports and data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  Monthly numbers reports are based on the monthly Employment Situation Report The Employment Situation report includes month over month and year over year jobs numbers.  My analysis is taken from the monthly BLS data copied to an Excel spreadsheet every month.  I calculate detailed percentage increases/decreases, 3 month numbers, year to date numbers, and I compare jobs numbers to those at the time of Obama's inauguration and at the "trough" of the recession.)

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