April 2012: Unemployment Numbers This Week

This article discusses jobs numbers as of April 2012:
Current reports and links can be found HERE.

Four unemployment reports were published or will be published this week. 

Additionally, the Institute for Supply Management released its April 2012 report today which contains an Employment Overview as well as its usual manufacturing report.

Highlights to date:

• The monthly BLS Employment Situation Report was released this morning.  The economy added 115,000 jobs; March jobs numbers were revised upwards by 50,000, unemployment clicks down by .1%. Fewer people are unemployed due to permanent jobs loss than at any time since late 2008. 
• The BLS Business Employment Dynamic report shows more robust employment activity in the third quarter of 2011, from July to September 2011, than previously reported.  In fact, it reported the largest net job gain since the first  quarter of 2006. 
• The Institute of Supply Management's Employment Index registered 57.3 percent in April, which is 1.2 percentage points higher than the 56.1 percent reported in March.  This is the 31st consecutive month of growth in the Employment Index.
• The ADP National Employment Report was disappointing, showing only 119,000 private sector jobs added according to its estimates.  This report showed a contraction in manufacturing jobs, whereas the ISM report showed that manufacturing jobs probably increased in April.
• The Weekly Initial Claims Report shows a decrease of first time filings for unemployment compensation for the third week of April 2012.  The number of claims had been up somewhat over the past three weeks, and the number has now decreased in line with the numbers for March.  Don't miss my explanation and chart!

The four employment reports are:

• The big monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs and unemployment report was released Friday morning, May 4th.  Watch for updates and summaries HERE!
• The Business Employment Dynamics report for the 3rd Quarter 2011 was released this morning, May 1st.  As it summarizes employment activity in 2011, it doesn't provide much new information, but it does confirm what we already knew:  That job growth in the private sector was more robust during the third quarter 2011 than it seemed to be at the time.  The monthly Employment Situation reports of July, August, and September 2011 released at the time reflected an increase in private job employment of a total of only 304,000.  (Remember the nasty comments surrounding the "zero" job growth in August 2011.. which was later adjusted up to +85,000 new jobs?)  The BLS "Establishment survey" has now changed that estimate to an increase of 443,000 private sector jobs in those same three months.  This report, based on more complete employment numbers as reported to the federal government, shows an increase of 753,000 jobs during that quarter.  (The monthly employment reports use estimates which are improved and finalized over a period of subsequent months; they use somewhat different populations than does the quarterly BED report.)  Here's the Business Employment Dynamic summary:

From June to September 2011 gross job gains  from opening and expanding private sector " establishments were 7.1 million, an increase  of 166,000 jobs from the previous quarter, the  U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported  today. Over this period, gross job losses from  closing and contracting private sector  establishments were 6.3 million, a decrease of  9,000 jobs from the previous quarter.   The difference between the number of gross  job gains and gross job losses yielded a net  employment change of 753,000 jobs in the  private sector during the third quarter of 2011.   This is the largest net job gain since the first quarter of 2006. 

• The ADP monthly employment report is based on the payroll processor's monthly survey of private corporations.  Though in any one month it may differ from the BLS report, over time, they parallel each other.  ADP releases its monthly report the first Wednesday of the month, just a couple of days in advance of the BLS numbers.  It is a well-regarded harbinger of the BLS report.  The ADP Report, which was released  Wednesday, May 2nd, estimates that 119,000 private sector jobs were added in April.  The forecasters were hoping for 170,000 more jobs, so many are considering this report disappointing.  This report shows a decrease of 5,000 jobs in manufacturing, whereas the Institute for Supply Management report released yesterday (see below) showed that manufacturing jobs probably grew quite a bit last month.  Moral:  Take all of these reports with a grain of salt.  They really only make sense when one looks at trends over a period of months.
• The weekly unemployment claims report is released every Thursday.  It tells us how many people are filing for and collecting unemployment benefits for the previous week and it updates the numbers of those claims for the two prior weeks.  One week usually doesn't mean much as this report is much more volatile than the monthly report and is affected by weather and occasionally skewed seasonal adjustment factors.  However, this report, followed over a period of weeks, is also considered a good harbinger of the unemployment and jobs pictures.  As the first time claims, while continuing their downward trend, have been a bit weak over the past three weeks, this week's report will be important. Here's the summary (with a chart) of this report which was released Thursday morning, May 3rd. 

The Institute for Supply Management Monthly Manufacturing Report:  Employment Section

From the report: 

ISM's Employment Index registered 57.3 percent in April, which is 1.2 percentage points higher than the 56.1 percent reported in March. This is the 31st consecutive month of growth in the Employment Index. An Employment Index above 50.5 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment.

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 13 reported growth in employment in April in the following order: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Plastics & Rubber Products; Machinery; Furniture & Related Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Transportation Equipment; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Paper Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Chemical Products. The three industries reporting a decrease in employment in April are: Computer & Electronic Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; and Printing & Related Support Activities.

Employment	% Higher	% Same	% Lower	Net	Index
Apr 2012	34	54	12	+22	57.3
Mar 2012	25	63	12	+13	56.1
Feb 2012	26	58	16	+10	53.2
Jan 2012	23	59	18	+5	54.3

"Net" vs. "Gross" jobs numbers?

Some Bureau of Labor Statistics reports, such as the JOLTS (Job Openings, Layoffs and Turnovers Survey), use Gross jobs numbers.  That report will tell us how many job openings there are, how many people were laid off, how many people quit, how many were hired.  The weekly initial unemployment claims report also uses Gross numbers.  Those reports tell us exactly how many people filed for unemployment claims and how many were collecting unemployment benefits.

Now the monthly reports use Net jobs numbers.

The number of jobs that is discussed on the first Friday of each month is a NET number:  You may hear that 80,000 jobs were created or added or 5,000 government jobs were lost.  If 80,000 jobs were created, this means that the number of people that were added to payrolls during the month was greater than the number of people who left the payrolls during that month.

If you hear that 5,000 government jobs were lost, this means that the number of people dropped from government payrolls was greater than the number of people added to government payrolls during the month.

The monthly BLS report does not attempt to tell us how many individual jobs were added in gross numbers and how many individual jobs were subtracted in gross numbers; it gives us a total of either all gains after all losses have been subtracted or all losses after all gains have been added.  The monthly jobs number is therefore a NET number.      

Private & Govt Jobs Lost & Gained, Month By Month in 2011 through 2014 (Updated for February 2014)

How many jobs, total, private, and government have been gained (created, added) or lost (cut) month by month since December 2010? 

Numbers of jobs in thousands, NET* jobs lost/gained as stated.

Green numbers = jobs gained; red numbers = jobs lost.

Month....	Total Jobs	Jobs lost/gained	Private Jobs	Prvt Jobs lost/gained	Gov't Jobs	Govt Jobs lost/gained
Jan 2011	130,464	+69,000	108,208	+80,000	22,249	-9,000
Feb.	130,660	+196,000	108,451	+243,000	22,212	-37,000
March	130,865	+205,000	108,674	+223,000	22,197	-15,000
April	131,169	+304,000	108,977	+303,000	22,184	-13,000
May	131,284	+115,000	109,160	+183,000	22,130	-54,000
June	131,413	+209,000	109,337	+177,000	22,112	-18,000
July	131,571	+78,000	109,543	+206,000	22,033	-79,000
August	131,703	+132,000	109,672	+129,000	22,066	+33,000
Sept.	131,928	+225,000	109,928	+256,000	22,052	-14,000
Oct.	132,094	+166,000	110,102	+174,000	22,025	-27,000
Nov.	132,268	+174,000	110,299	+197,000	22,004	-19,000
Dec 2011	132,498	+230,000	110,548	+249,000	21,993	-**,000
Jan 2012	132,809	+311,000	110,871	+323,000	21,938	-2,000
Feb	133,080	+271,000	111,136	+265,000	21,944	+6,000
Mar	133,285	+205,000	111,344	+208,000	21,941	-3,000
Apr	133,397	+112,000	111,464	+120,000	21,933	-8,000
May	133,522	+125,000	111,616	+152,000	21,906	-27,000
June	133,609	+87,000	111,694	+78,000	21,915	+9,000
July	133,762	+153,000	111,871	+177,000	21,891	-24,000
August	133,927	+165,000	112,002	+131,000	21,925	+34,000
Sept.	134,065	+138,000	112,120	+118,000	21,945	+20,000
Oct.	134,225	+160,000	112,337	+217,000	21,888	-57,000
Nov.	134,472	+247,000	112,593	+256,000	21,879	-9,000
Dec 2012	134,691	+219,000	112,817	+224,000	21,874	-5,000
Jan 2013	135,261	+197,000	113,395	+219,000	21,866	-8,000
Feb	135,541	+280,000	113,658	+263,000	21,883	+17,000
Mar	135,682	+141,000	113,822	+164,000	21,860	-23,000
Apr	135,885	+203,000	114,010	+188,000	21,875	+15,000
May	136,084	+199,000	114,232	+222,000	21,852	-23,000
June	136,285	+201,000	114,433	+201,000	21,852	-EVEN
July	136,434	+149,000	114,603	+170,000	21,831	-21,000
August	136,636	+202,000	114,783	+180,000	21,853	+22,000
Sept	136,800	+164,000	114,936	+153,000	21,864	+11,000
Oct	137,037	+237,000	115,183	+247,000	21,854	-10,000
Nov	137,311	+274,000	115,455	+272,000	21,856	+2,000
Dec 2013	137,395	+84,000	115,541	+86,000	21,854	-2,000
Jan 2014	137,524	+129,000	115,686	+145,000	21,838	-16,000
Feb	137,699	+175,000	115,848	+162,000	21,851	+13,000

Total ADDED in 2011 through 2014 to date:

• A total of 2,103,000 jobs total were ADDED or CREATED in 2011.  That is an average of 175,300 new jobs per month in 2011.  
• A total of 2,170,000 jobs were ADDED or CREATED in 2012.  That is an average of 180,800 new jobs per month in 2012.   
• A total of 2,322,000 jobs total were ADDED or CREATED in 2013.  That is an average of 193,500 new jobs per month in 2013.
• A total of 304,000 jobs total have been ADDED or CREATED in 2014 to date (as of February 2014).  That is an average of 152,000 new jobs per month in 2014 to date

Total ADDED since December 2010:


Since December 2010, including February 2014, 6,954,000 jobs were ADDED in total.  This is an average of 183,000 new jobs per month over the past 38 months.

Private Sector Jobs ADDED in 2011 through 2014:

• 2,420,000 jobs were ADDED in the private sector in 2011; that is an average of 202,000 new private-sector jobs per month in 2011. 
• A total of 2,269,000 private-sector jobs were ADDED or CREATED in 2012.  That is an average of 189,000 new private-sector jobs per month in 2012.
• A total of 2,368,000 private sector jobs were ADDED or CREATED in 2013.  That is an average of 197,300 new jobs per month in 2013.
• A total of 307,000 private sector jobs have been ADDED or CREATED in 2014 to date (as of February 2014). That is an average of 154,000 new jobs per month in 2014 to date.

Private sector jobs ADDED since December 2010:

Since December 2010, including February 2014, 7,366,000 jobs were ADDED in the private sector.  This is an average of  194,000 new private-sector jobs per month over the past 38 months.

Government Jobs LOST in 2011 through 2014:

• 317,000 jobs were LOST in the government sector in 2011; that is an average of 26,400 government sector jobs LOST per month in 2011. 
• A total of 76,000 government jobs were LOST in 2012.  That is an average of 6,300 government jobs LOST per month in 2012.
• A total of 46,000 government jobs were LOST in 2013.  That is an average of 3,800 government jobs lost per month in 2013. 
• A total of 3,000 government jobs were LOST in 2014 to date (as of January 2014).  That is an average of 1,500 government jobs lost per month in 2014 to date. 

Government jobs LOST since December 2010:

Since December 2010, including February 2014, 412,000 jobs were LOST in the government sector.  This is an average of 11,000 government sector jobs LOST per month over the past 38 months.

(Note:  All of my employment number reports are based on monthly reports and data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  States numbers reports are based on the monthly Regional and State Employment/Unemployment Survey .  The BLS reports include month over month and year over year numbers of state job numbers.  My analysis is taken from the monthly BLS data copied to an Excel spreadsheet every month.  I calculate detailed percentage increases/decreases, 3 month numbers, year to date and year over year numbers, and I rank the states and employment sectors according to various metrics. *NET jobs:  All jobs numbers in the monthly reports are NET jobs numbers.  In other words, jobs are lost and gained every month, in good economic times and bad.  The number of jobs lost or gained and the number of workers lost or gained represents all job gains after all losses are subtracted or all job losses after all gains are subtracted.  In months in which there are jobs gains, more jobs have been added than jobs lost.  In months in which there are jobs losses, more jobs have been lost than have been added.  Since September 2010, we have had ONLY net job gains.)

2011 Jobs & Unemployment Summary, Facts, and Figures

LATEST Jobs Number Revisions for 2011 as of February 2013:

• 2,193,000* jobs in TOTAL have been ADDED in 2011.
• 2,420,000* private sector jobs have been ADDED.
• 317,000* government sector jobs have been LOST.

Summary for all of 2011 of February 2012:

• 1,840,000* jobs in TOTAL have been ADDED in 2011.
• 2,105,000* private sector jobs have been ADDED.
• 265,000* government sector jobs have been LOST.
• The unemployment rate FELL from 9.4% to 8.5%.
• The official alternate unemployment rate FELL from 16.6% to 15.2%.
• The civilian labor force (people working and people actively looking for work) increased by 274,000. 
• 1,570,000 MORE people reported themselves as employed.
• 1,296,000 FEWER people reported themselves as UNemployed.
• 833,000 FEWER people reported themselves as among the long-term unemployed
• 97,000 FEWER people claimed to "want a job" (but don't have one and have not looked for a job within the past month.) 

* These numbers have been revised since they were originally published.  Here are the original numbers:  Total jobs increased by 1,640,000.  Private jobs increased by 1,920,000.  Government jobs declined by 280,000.  Please note that revisions to jobs numbers occur frequently during the first two years after numbers are published, as "real" data from employers clarifies the initial survey data.  Also, minor revisions to jobs numbers are often made up to five to ten years after the initial numbers.

Promising numbers, but....

Total Jobs Numbers:

All of these numbers are very promising, considering the deep hole that the country was in three years ago.  However, we have a long way to go.  8,750,000 jobs were lost between early 2008 and early 2010, when we began adding jobs.  We've added 2,654,000 jobs in total* since that trough, but that means we have 6 million more jobs to add*, not counting jobs for people who have been added to the civilian workforce in the past four years.  We're still in that hole, and the climb out of that hole has been slow and difficult indeed.  

(Current numbers can always be found HERE.)

Private sector jobs numbers:

The private sector job toll has been a bit brighter, but still difficult:  We lost 8,838,000 private sector jobs in that same period, from January 2008 until January 2010.  We've added 3,156,000 since the trough.  We have about 5,700,000 private sector jobs to add, again, not counting jobs for people who have been added to the civilian workforce in the past four years. 

Government Sector Jobs Numbers:

Layoffs in the government sectors have added to employment difficulties:  Not counting hiring for Census 2010, government hiring (federal, state, and local sectors) actually peaked in April 2009.   We have lost 709,000 government sector jobs since that time, with declines in 18 of the last 19 months. 

The numbers for 2011 have all been extracted from the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation Report.  The numbers from 2008 forward were all taken from data extracted on the BLS Databases and Tools page.  I publish many updates based on BLS data.  Current articles are indexed HERE.

State Job Growth Rankings 2011

States ranking by Percentage of  Job Growth for all of 2011:

Below are the rankings of the fifty states based on percentage of job growth for the year 2011.  December numbers are preliminary.  Four states, Missouri, Alaska, Delaware, and Georgia, have  experienced a decrease in jobs for the year of 2011.  The average percentage job growth for the United States in 2011 was +1.22% 

I've included the party affiliation of the governors and legislatures of the various states.  See the legend after the data.

2012 State Rankings by Job and Employment Growth HERE!

  Latest (2011, 2012, & 2013) Jobs and Unemployment Reports HERE!! 

Which States Received Lumps of Coal in Job Creation for November 2011? 



(Note:  These numbers are based on the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Reports.  The BLS reports include month over month and year over year numbers.  Data for my monthly reports is taken from that BLS report copied to a spreadsheet every month.  I will continue to add more reports on state data in the coming days.)

Rank	State	Governor...	Legislature.....	% +/- Jobs.......	Rank Last Month
1.	North Dakota	R	R	+5.73	1.
2.	Utah	R	R	+3.04	3.
3.	Oklahoma	R	R	+2.72	2.
4.	Louisiana	R	M	+2.52	5.
5.	Wyoming	R	R	+2.25	4.
6.	Texas	R	R	+1.96	8.
7.	California	D	D	+1.34	9.
8.	Kentucky	D	M	+1.74	19.
9.	Michigan	R	R	+1.72	11.
10.	South Dakota	R	R	+1.66	42.
11.	Florida	R	R	+1.59	17.
12.	Arizona	R	R	+1.57	7.
13.	Vermont	D	D	+1.47	13.
14.	Washington	D	D	+1.45	6.
15.	Ohio	R	R	+1.44	12.
16.	Nebraska	R	N	+1.39	14.
17.	West Virginia	D	D	+1.34	18.
18.	Idaho	R	R	+1.34	34.
19.	Massachusetts	D	D	+1.27	10.
20.	Tennessee	R	R	+1.19	15.
21.	New Hampshire	D	R	+1.18	20.
22.	Oregon	D	M	+1.11	30.
23.	South Carolina	R	R	+1.10	16.
24.	Colorado	D	M	+1.06	23.
25.	Pennsylvania	R	R	+1.05	26.
26.	Hawaii	D	D	+1.03	21.
27.	New York	D	M	+1.01	22.
28.	Virginia	R	R	+1.01	37.
29.	Maryland	D	D	+1.00	33.
30.	Minnesota	D	R	+1.00	36.
31.	Kansas	R	R	+0.96	35.
32.	New Jersey	R	D	+0.95	28.
33.	Illinois	D	D	+0.94	24.
34.	Montana	D	R	+0.93	31.
35.	Iowa	R	M	+0.91	25.
36.	New Mexico	R	D	+0.89	27.
37.	Arkansas	D	D	+0.69	32.
38.	Indiana	R	R	+0.63	47.
39.	Connecticut	D	D	+0.56	39.
40.	North Carolina	D	R	+0.51	40.
41.	Alabama	R	R	+0.39	44.
42.	Nevada	R	D	+0.37	29.
43.	Mississippi	R	D	+0.25	38.
44.	Wisconsin	R	R	+0.12	46.
45.	Rhode Island	I	R	+0.11	48.
46.	Maine	R	R	+0.02	41.
47.	Missouri	D	R	-0.14	43.
48.	Georgia	R	R	-0.36	49.
49.	Alaska	R	M	-0.52	45.
50.	Delaware	D	R	-2.80	50.

Legend: 

• R- Republican 
• D- Democratic 
• I-  Independent
• M- Mixed
• N- Non-partisan  

Is there any relationship between the party in control of a state and the rate of job creation in that state?

Based on the rankings in this report, there does not appear to be any consistent correlation between control of the state politically and job growth.  Seven states in the top 10 are now completely controlled by Republicans, as are four states in the bottom 10.  21 states are now controlled completely by Republicans.  14 of those states are in the top half of the rankings, and 7 Republican states are in the bottom half.  10 states are now controlled completely by Democrats.  5 of those states are in the top half of the rankings, and 5 of those states are in the bottom half.  


However, the biggest key to job growth in 2011 is the growth of the mining sector.  The mining sector also includes oil extraction and logging.  Seven states in the top 10 experienced an increase of at least 10% in mining sector jobs.  Most states with significant mining activity are smaller states controlled by Republicans.  As a whole, the mining and logging sector has experienced the strongest job growth in the United States for 2011.  

Biggest improvement:  South Dakota, Idaho, Kentucky, Indiana, Virginia, Oregon, Minnesota, and Florida, each advancing at least 5 slots from last month.


Nevada, Iowa, New Mexico, Massachusetts, Illinois, Washington, South Carolina, Mississippi, Maine, Arkansas, Arizona, Hawaii, New York, and Tennessee all declined at least 5 slots since last month.

  Latest (May 2012 & all 2011 & 2012) Jobs and Unemployment Reports HERE!! 

Which States Received Lumps of Coal in Job Creation for November 2011?  

Private & Government Jobs Lost and Gained Month by Month in 2011

The following report is for 2011.  Current reports can be found HERE.

How many jobs, total, private, and government have been gained (created) or lost month by month in 2011?

Latest Updates and Revisions to these Numbers HERE!!

(Numbers of jobs in thousands, jobs lost/gained as stated.)

Month	Total Jobs	Jobs lost/gained	Private Jobs	Prvt Jobs lost/gained	Gov't Jobs	Govt Jobs lost/gained
Jan.	130,328	+68,000	108,102	+94,000	22,226	-26,000
Feb.	130,563	+235,000	108,363	+261,000	22,200	-26,000
March	130,757	+194,000	108,582	+219,000	22,175	-25,000
April	130,974	+217,000	108,823	+241,000	22,151	-24,000
May	130,999	+25,000	108,896	+73,000	22,103	-48,000
June	131,047	+48,000	108,997	+101,000	22,050	-53,000
July	131,174	+127,000	109,170	+173,000	22,004	-46,000
August	131,278	+104,000	109,242	+72,000	22,036	+32,000
Sept.	131,488	+210,000	109,462	+220,000	22,026	-10,000
Oct.	131,600*	+112,000*	109,596*	+134,000*	22,004*	-22,000*
Nov.	131,700*	+100,000*	109,716*	+120,000*	21,984*	-20,000*
Dec.	131,900	+200,000	109,928	+212,000	21,972	-12,000

The numbers above represent the latest revisions, which often differ from the preliminary numbers announced by the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) on the first Friday of a given month.  (* - Revisions since the last month's numbers). 


A total of 1,640,000 jobs have been ADDED/CREATED in 2011.  That is an average of 137,000 new jobs per month this year.  


1,920,000 jobs have been ADDED in the private sector in 2011; that is an average of 160,000 new private-sector jobs per month this year.


280,000 jobs have been LOST in the government sector in 2011; that is an average of 23,000 government sector jobs lost per month this year. 

• How Many Jobs Has Obama Created or Lost? (January 2012 Update)
• What Was the Unemployment Rate When Obama Took Office?
• How Many Jobs Were Created in 2011?
• How Many Jobs Were Created in January 2012?
• Private & Government Jobs Gained & Lost Month by Month 2011 to Date

Other jobs reports HERE!!

(Note:  All of my employment number reports are based on monthly reports and data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  States numbers reports are based on the monthly Regional and State Employment/Unemployment Survey .  The BLS reports include month over month and year over year numbers of state job numbers.  My analysis is taken from the monthly BLS data copied to an Excel spreadsheet every month.  I calculate detailed percentage increases/decreases, 3 month numbers, 2011 to date numbers, and I rank the states according to various metrics.)