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Friday, November 25, 2011

Which States Were Job Winners or Losers in October 2011?

Georgia, Rhode Island, and Wisconsin are Turkeys; California, Illinois, North Dakota, Montana, and Florida are Stars. 

Georgia, Rhode Island, and Wisconsin have been named Turkeys in job growth/loss for October 2011.

Based on an analysis of the latest Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Report which was released Tuesday by the Bureau of Labor, these three states had the lowest job growth (or actual decreases in jobs) in one or more categories, either month over month, over the past three months, 2011 to date, or year over year.

California, Illinois, North Dakota, and Montana have been named Gold Star states for October 2011, each leading the nation in one or more categories of job growth (over the past month, past three months, in 2011, or over the past year.)

According to the same analysis, the US gained approximately 1.1% in jobs since October 2010.
(Note:  The BLS report includes month over month and year over year numbers.  My analysis, taken from BLS data copied to a spreadsheet every month, includes detailed percentage increases/decreases, 3 month numbers, and 2011 to date numbers.  I will provide this data on a state-by-state basis, including rankings in all categories, in the coming days.)

Jobs Performance Month Over Month (September to October 2011):

The best performance (biggest gains) in month over month jobs numbers (September to October 2011):
Gold stars to-
  • Illinois              +30,000
  • California          +25,700 
  • Virginia             +14,000
  • Pennsylvania      +13,800
  • Washington       +11,700 
  • Massachusetts   +10,800
The worst performance (biggest losses and/or smallest gains) in month over month jobs numbers:
October's Turkeys-
  • Wisconsin         -9,700
  • New York          -8,300   
  • Minnesota         -6,100
  • Kansas             -2,600
  • South Carolina   -2,300
The best performance (biggest gains) as a percent of jobs compared to the previous month:
Gold stars to-
  • Delaware             +.98%
  • North Dakota        +.66%
  • Oklahoma            +.58%
  • Illinois                +.53%
  • Washington         +.42%
  • Mississippi           +.41%
  • Montana              +.41%
  • Connecticut          +.40%
The worst performance (biggest losses and/or smallest gains) as a percent of jobs compared to the last month:
The Turkeys are-
  • Wisconsin          -.35%
  • Wyoming           -.34% 
  • Maine                -.27% 
  • Rhode Island      -.26% 
  • Minnesota          -.23% 


Jobs performance over last three months (July to October 2011): 

The best performance (biggest gains) in three-month jobs numbers (July to October 2011):
Gold stars to-
  • California +86,000
  • Florida     +45,200
  • Illinois     +31,600
  • Arizona    +27,200
The worst performance (biggest losses and/or smallest gains) in three-month jobs numbers:
October's Turkeys are-
  • New York    -22,400
  • Wisconsin   -21,200
  • Georgia      -16,300
  • Michigan     -14,400
  • Ohio           -8,300
The best performance (biggest gains) in percent of jobs over the past three months:
Gold stars to-
  • North Dakota  +1.22%
  • Arizona          +1.14%
  • Louisiana       +1.09%
  • Mississippi     +0.95%
  • Nebraska       +0.83%
  • Minnesota      +0.78%
  • Montana        +0.76%
The worst performance (biggest losses and/or smallest gains) in percent of jobs over the past three months:
Turkeys are-
  • Rhode Island   -1.69%
  • Wyoming        -0.92%
  • Wisconsin       -0.77%
  • South Dakota  -0.59%
  • Georgia          -0.43%


Jobs performance in 2011 (December 2010 to October 2011):

The best performance (biggest gains) in job numbers in all of 2011:
Gold stars to-
  • California     +215,800
  • Texas          +171,800
  • Florida         +90,800
  • New York     +79,900
  • Ohio            +74,700
  • Illinois         +64,800
  • Michigan      +57,700
The worst performance (biggest losses and/or smallest gains) in job numbers in all of 2011:
October Turkeys-
  • Georgia            -23,600
  • Delaware          +200
  • Indiana            +500
  • Rhode Island     +1,100
  • South Dakota    +1,600
  • Maine              +2,500
The best performance (biggest gains) as a percent of increase in number of jobs in 2011:
Gold stars to-
  • North Dakota   +4.34%
  • Utah               +2.76%
  • Oklahoma        +2,76%
  • Louisiana         +2.28%
  • Nebraska         +2.01%
  • Montana          +1.96%
The worst performance (biggest losses and/or smallest gains) as a percent of jobs in 2011:
Turkeys are-
  • Georgia         -0.62%
  • Indiana          +0.02%
  • Delaware       +0.05%
  • Rhode Island +0.24%
  • Arkansas       +0.24%


Jobs performance year over year (October 2010 to October 2011):

The best performance (biggest gains) in job numbers year over year:
Gold stars to-
  • California          +239,100
  • Texas               +231,600
  • Florida              +93,900
  • Ohio                 +63,100
  • New York        +61,500
  • Illinois               +60,500
  • Pennsylvania     +54,500
  • Massachusetts  +50,000
The worst performance (biggest losses and/or smallest gains) in job numbers year over year:
October Turkeys-
  • Georgia          -33,300
  • Indiana           -12,400
  • Arkansas        -1,300
  • Delaware        -200
  • Rhode Island  -200
  • Missouri         +200
The best performance (biggest gains) as a percent of jobs year over year:
Gold stars to-

  • North Dakota   +4.86%
  • Oklahoma        +3.05%
  • Utah                +2.62%
  • Texas              +2.23%
  • Nebraska         +2.00%
  • Montana          +1.94%
  • California         +1.72%
  • Wyoming         +1.72%
  • Vermont          +1.71%

The worst performance (biggest losses and/or smallest gains) as a percent of jobs year over year:
Turkeys to-

  • Georgia         -0.87%
  • Indiana          - 0.44%
  • Arkansas       -0.11%
  • Delaware       -0.05%
  • Rhode Island  -0.04%
  • Missouri         +0.01% 
  • Alabama        +0.20%
  • Wisconsin      +0.22%

October's Biggest Turkeys:
  • Georgia, with 6 turkeys and the largest drop in jobs year over year.
  • Rhode Island, also has 6 turkeys and negative job growth month over month, over 3 months, and year over year.
  • Wisconsin, with 5 turkeys, had the greatest loss of jobs month over month, the second worst loss of jobs over three months, and anemic job growth year over year and year to date.  Particularly troublesome for Wisconsin is its recent drop in job growth, while the nation as a whole showed decent job growth.
  • Indiana, with 4 turkeys, shows a decline in number of jobs both month over month and year over year.
  • Delaware, with 4 turkeys, seems to have picked up recently, but it is still showing a decline year over year.  
  • Other turkeys include:
    • Arkansas, with 3 turkeys.
    • Maine, Missouri, and South Dakota, each with 2 turkeys.   
October's Gold Star States:
  • California, with 5 stars, including healthy year over year job growth.
  • Illinois, also with 5 stars, including the top job growth in October 2011.
  • North Dakota, with 4 stars, including top gains in percentages in all time frames, but because of its size, not huge absolute growth. 
  • Montana, with 4 stars, like North Dakota, has high percentage increases, but moderate absolute growth due to its size.
  • Runner up gold star states include: 
    • Florida, Oklahoma, Texas, Nebraska, each with 3 stars.  It should be noted that, although Texas still shows significant year over year job growth, its overall job growth has fallen off significantly in the last few months. 

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