A LABOR DAY SALUTE . AUG jobs # Fri, Sept 5. JULY BLS: +209,000 jobs, Unemp. rate up to 6.2%. Details HERE! Jobs since Obama took office? HERE Unemp. rate under Obama? HERE

Friday, January 6, 2012

How Many Jobs Has Obama Created or Lost ? (December 2011 update)

How has Obama done on jobs?  
2,654,000 gained since "trough" of recession as of Dec. 2011.


How Has Obama done on private-sector jobs?
3,156,000 gained since the "trough" of the recession as of Dec. 2011.


More detail below.


            
Note:  The following detail is as of December 2011.  For current numbers, click a link above.

How many jobs have been lost or gained during the Obama administration?  Have more new jobs been created or have more jobs been lost under Obama to date?   


Here's a summary of data from the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics).  All numbers lost to the "trough" of the recession reflect ALL non-farm jobs lost between the time Obama took office and the lowest point of the recession in late 2009/early 2010 :

Seasonally adjusted:
  • All jobs lost from the time Obama took office to "trough" (bottom of recession): .....4,303,000
  • All jobs gained since "trough": ....2,654,000
Net LOSS in seasonally-adjusted jobs since Obama took office: ....1,649,000                      


"Raw:" numbers not seasonally adjusted:
  • Jobs lost from the time Obama took office to trough: .....4,246,000                                                    
  • Jobs gained since "trough": .....5,412,000
Net GAIN in raw unadjusted jobs since Obama took office: .....1,166,000 



How many private sector jobs have been gained or lost since Obama took office?

Seasonally adjusted:
  • Private-sector jobs lost to "trough" (bottom of recession): .....4,209,000
  • Private-sector jobs gained since "trough": .....3,156,000
         
*(This is the number often used by Obama and the Democrats as the number of private jobs created since the "trough" of the recession .  It is a correct number, but it is a seasonally-adjusted number.  In "real" unadjusted numbers, 5,463,000 private sector jobs have been created since the "trough" of the recession.)
  
Net LOSS in seasonally-adjusted private-sector jobs since Obama took office: ....1,053,000                      



"Raw:" numbers not seasonally adjusted: 
  • Private-sector jobs lost to "trough": .....4,151,000 
  • Private-sector jobs gained since "trough": .....5,463,000                              
Net GAIN in "raw" unadjusted private-sector jobs since Obama took office: .....1,312,000  

Breakdown of private and government jobs lost and gained?  HERE!



Summary of December jobs activity: 

Jobs increased 200,000 in total in December 2011 (vs. an increase of 100,000 in November). Private sector jobs continued to increase while government sector jobs continued to decrease. Private sector jobs increased by 212,000 (vs. 120,000 in November), while government jobs decreased by 12,000 (vs. a decrease of 20,000 in November).  

Is it true that over 2 million private sector jobs have been created in the Obama administration as the Democrats claim?

(Summary of gross and net jobs activity since Obama was inaugurated is below the jump---  Keep reading!)


Yes, if one is looking at numbers created from the bottom ("trough") of the recession.  In fact, that number is now a bit low.  In seasonally adjusted numbers as of December 20113,156,000 private-sector jobs have been created since the bottom of the recession.   (Remember that job loss continued for about a year after Obama was inaugurated.)


How many workers have been laid off or hired (net) during the Obama administration?  

Seasonally adjusted:  
  • Fewer people working (net) to "trough" : .....4,260,000 
  • More people working (net) since "trough": ....2,830,000      
Net LOSS in seasonally-adjusted number of people working since Obama took office: .....1,431,000                      



"Raw:" numbers not seasonally adjusted:
  • Fewer workers to "trough": .......3,627,000
  • More workers since "trough": .....3,872,000
Net GAIN in "raw" unadjusted number of people working since Obama took office:    .....245,000        

Can you summarize the above?
  • Obama was inaugurated in January 2009 when the economy was in free fall and we were losing about 700,000 jobs a month.  Over 4,400,000 jobs were lost before Obama took office.  
  • The employment situation did not bottom out until late 2009 or early 2010.  An additional 4,300,000 jobs were lost between the time that Obama took office and the bottom ("trough") of the recession.  
  • That's a total job loss of at least 8,700,000 jobs over approximately 2 years.
  • Since the economy started to add jobs under Obama, 2,654,000 jobs have been added using seasonally-adjusted numbers (See below). 
  • Since the economy started to add jobs under Obama, 5,412,000 jobs have been added using "real" unadjusted numbers.  
  • We still need many more jobs to overcome the loss of jobs that started in 2008 and to make up for the increase in population since 2008.  Please remember that over 49,000,000 people were laid off between Spring of 2008 and the end of 2009.

How did you come up with these numbers?  Why isn't there one number instead of all of these?    



Counting jobs or workers is very tricky. In seasonal numbers, we have still lost more jobs and workers in the first year of Obama's administration, when the economy was struggling to pull out of recession, than we have gained during the second year and this year of Obama's administration when we have experienced job growth.  We are still running a jobs/workers deficit of up to  1,600,000 in seasonally-adjusted numbers since Obama took office, but we are ahead in non-seasonally adjusted numbers of jobs.  


Job growth was brisk in the first months of 2011, but slowed down towards the middle of the year.  It has picked up during the last months. However, job growth, particularly private sector job growth, has continued throughout 2011.  

In terms of the non-seasonally adjusted numbers of both total jobs created and private jobs created (not adjusted for seasonal variance), we have pulled into positive territory.  There are now 1,166,000 more "real" jobs in TOTAL,  and there are 1,312,000 more "real" jobs in the PRIVATE sector now than there were when Obama was inaugurated and the economy was in free fall.  However, we can expect that this unadjusted number will decline when the January 2012 figures are released in February.


There's usually no one number that explains everything, and most monthly numbers need to be seen as "trends", not absolutes.  People use the unemployment rate, but even that can vary for so many reasons that don't really reflect the true state of the labor market.

A few explanations and more detail:


What is a "trough"?  When did we hit the low point of jobs and workers?  When did we hit the high point of unemployment? 

I use the term "trough" to designate the lowest point of jobs or workers in this recession.  The various counts reach their "troughs" in various months, so it may be a bit confusing.  The unemployment rate reached its high point in October 2009.  The seasonally adjusted number of workers reached its low point in December 2009, but so many workers had dropped out of the work force that the unemployment rate had actually come down.  In raw, unadjusted numbers of workers and jobs, we reached our nadir in January 2010.  The seasonally-adjusted number of jobs reached its low point a month later, in February 2010. 

How Many Jobs were Lost from the time Obama took office until the "trough" of jobs lost?
  • In seasonally adjusted numbers, employers reported 133,563,000 jobs in January 2009.  At the trough of the recession in February 2010, there were 129,246,000 jobs.  That's a loss of 4,317,000 jobs from the time Obama took office until the "trough" of the recession. 
  • In "raw" numbers (not adjusted for seasonal variances), employers reported 131,555,000 jobs in January 2009.  At the trough of the recession in January 2010, there were 127,309,000 jobs.  That's loss of  4,246,000 jobs from the time Obama took office until the "trough" of the recession. 

How Many Fewer Were Employed from the time Obama took office until the "trough" of employment?
  • In seasonally adjusted numbers, 142,221,000 people reported themselves as employed in January 2009.  At the trough of the recession in December 2009, 137,960,000 people reported themselves as employed.  That's a loss of 4,261,000 employed people from the time Obama took office until the "trough" of the recession.
  • In "raw" numbers (not adjusted for seasonal variances), 140,436,000 people reported themselves as employed in January 2009.  At the trough of the recession in January 2010, 136,809,000 people reported themselves as employed.  That's a loss of 3,627,000 employed people from the time Obama took office until the "trough" of the recession. 


What was the unemployment rate when Obama took office?  How high did it go? 
  • For the record, when Obama took office in January 2009, the "official" unemployment rate in seasonally adjusted numbers was 7.7%, with 11,919,000 people reported themselves as unemployed and actively looking.  In "raw" numbers not adjusted for seasonal variance, the unemployment rate was 8.5% with 13,009,000 people reporting themselves as unemployed and actively looking for work.
  • At the trough of the recession in late 2009/early 2010, the "official" unemployment rate in seasonally adjusted numbers was 10.1% in October 2009 with 15,612,000 people (out of a labor force of about 154,000,000) reporting themselves as unemployed.  In "raw" numbers not adjusted for seasonal variance, the unemployment rate reached a peak of 10.6% in January 2010 with 16,147,000 (out of a labor force of about 153,000,000) reporting themselves as unemployed and actively looking for work.
  • Now, in December 2011, the "official" unemployment rate in seasonally adjusted numbers is 8.5%, a decline of .1% (one-tenth of a percent) with 13,097,000 (out of a labor force of 153,887,000) reporting themselves as unemployed.  In unadjusted "raw" numbers, the unemployment rate is now 8.3%, an increase of .1% (one-tenth of a percent) compared to the unadjusted unemployment rate in November 2011.



How many jobs have been created since the "trough" of the recession in late 2009/early 2010 to now, December 2011?
  • In seasonally adjusted numbers, 2,654,000 jobs have been created since the "trough" of the recession in February 2010.
  • In raw unadjusted numbers, 5,412,000 jobs have been created since the "trough" of the recession in January 2010.



How many more people reported they were working since the "trough" of the recession in late 2009/early 2010 to now, December 2011?  
  • In seasonally adjusted numbers, 2,830,000 more people are working since the trough of the recession in December 2009.
  • In "raw" unadjusted numbers, 3,870,000 more people are working since the trough of the recession in January 2010.
(Note:  All of my employment number reports are based on monthly reports and data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  Monthly numbers reports are based on the monthly Employment Situation Report.  The Employment Situation report includes month over month and year over year numbers of jobs and workers.  My analysis is taken from the monthly BLS data copied to an Excel spreadsheet every month.  I calculate detailed percentage increases/decreases, 3 month numbers, 2011 to date numbers, and I compare jobs numbers to those at the time of Obama's inauguration and at the "trough" of the recession.)

3 comments:

  1. Wonderful work! Very clear and unbiased. Is it possible to do this with the last four years of the Bush administration? I think that information would provide additional insight to the work done in the last three Obama years. Thanks for your hard work.

    ReplyDelete
  2. It won't matter - Obama is a one term guy. Too many people cannot stand him and numbers won't make them like him.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Don't put your last 50 bucks on that one, Anonymous. And you need to get some different friends and some better sources of information.

    And check out a few polls on the issue before you rely on opinions of your "friends".

    ReplyDelete

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