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Friday, November 8, 2013

How Many Jobs Created or Lost in October 2013?

204,000 new jobs were CREATED or ADDED last month, in the month of October 2013.  

The private sector generated (added) 212,000 new jobs and the government sector lost (decreased) 8,000 jobs in October 2013.

735,000 FEWER people reported themselves as working in October 2013, however, this number was affected by the recent government shutdown. The survey on which this number is based asks people for their employment status as of the second week of October.  The government was still shutdown during that week.         

The unemployment rate increased to 7.3% in October 2013, probably due to the effect of the government shutdown, as 735,000 fewer people reported themselves as working in October.  Over 700,000 people left the labor force in October; however, this could also be the result of the government shutdown, as federal workers were not employed but not looking for work.  We won't know until next month's numbers.  (The size of the labor force is volatile.  Read more HERE.)    The unemployment rate has been below 8.0% for 14 months in a row now, starting in Summer 2012.  

How many more or fewer people are working this month?  How many more or fewer jobs are there this month?  Were jobs lost or gained?

How many more jobs are there in October 2013 than there were in September 2013?

Let's look:
  • 204,000 MORE jobs in seasonally-adjusted numbers were reported by employers now than in September.
  • 940,000 MORE jobs in "raw" actual numbers not adjusted for seasonal variations were reported by employers now vs. September.  (Jobs are typically lost in summer in "raw numbers" as teachers leave their jobs, and jobs are gained as teachers return to work in the fall.  Also, seasonal hiring usually starts in October.)    
Above from the BLS:  All jobs seasonally adjusted for last ten years.

How many more private sector jobs are there in October than there were in September 2013?
From the BLS:  Private payroll jobs last ten years. 

How many more (or fewer) government jobs are there in October than in September 2013?
  • 8,000 FEWER government jobs in seasonally-adjusted numbers were reported by government employers at all levels (federal, state, and local) now than in September.
  • 487,000 MORE government jobs in "raw" actual numbers not adjusted for seasonal variations were reported by government employers at all levels in October vs. September.  (Again, this is mostly due to teachers returning to work and being hired in the fall.) 

Above from the BLS:  Government jobs (fed, state, local) last 10 years.

Above from the BLS:  Local government education jobs, last 10 years.

How many more people are reporting themselves as working in October than in September 2013?  (Note:  All of the following numbers WERE affected by the recent government shutdown.)
  • 735,000 FEWER people reported themselves as working in seasonally-adjusted numbers than were working in September.
  • 507,000 FEWER people reported themselves as working in "raw" actual numbers not adjusted for seasonal variations than were working in September.
  • 623,000 FEWER people reported themselves as working full-time in seasonally adjusted numbers in October vs. September.
  • 127,000 FEWER people reported themselves as working part-time in seasonally adjusted numbers in October vs. September.  (Note:  The number people employed part-time and full-time may not equal the total number of people employed due to seasonal adjustment factors.)

Above from the BLS:  People reporting themselves as employed.. last ten years. 

Note:  All of my employment number reports are based on monthly reports and data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  Monthly numbers reports are based on the monthly Employment Situation Report The Employment Situation report includes month over month and year over year jobs numbers.  My analysis is taken from the monthly BLS data copied to an Excel spreadsheet every month.  I calculate detailed percentage increases/decreases, 3 month numbers, year to date numbers, and I compare jobs numbers to those at the time of Obama's inauguration and at the "trough" of the recession.)

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