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Thursday, April 3, 2014

March 2014 Unemployment Rate, Jobs

New record in private sector jobs:  We have 116,087,000 private sector jobs in the U.S., a new record surpassing the number of private sector jobs when the recession began, in January 2008.

March 2014 Jobs Numbers and Unemployment Rate were released Friday morning, April 4, 2014.

March 2014 BLS highlights:

  • The BLS reports that 192,000 payroll jobs were added in March, about in line with projections, (though some economists projected that over 200,000 jobs would be added.)
  • January jobs numbers were revised upwards by 15,000 and February numbers were revised upwards  by 22,000.  Job growth has averaged 183,000/month over the past 12 months.  
  • Private jobs increased by 192,000.
  • Government jobs stayed exactly the same. 
  • Unemployment rate stayed at 6.7%  The unemployment rate stayed the same despite an additional 476,000 employed because the civilian labor force (the number of people working or looking for work) grew by 503,000(The unemployment rate comes from a different source than the number of jobs which is why the unemployment rate can increase even if the number of jobs increases.  Over time, these two numbers closely parallel each other.  The unemployment rate, however, is much more volatile than the jobs numbers.  Also, the unemployment rate is not directed related to the number of people getting unemployment benefits.  This is one of the biggest employment myths out there. MORE HERE.)   
  • The alternate unemployment rate (which includes part time workers who want full time jobs, discouraged workers, and marginally attached workers) INCREASED to 12.7%, an increase of .1%, one-tenth of a percent. One year ago the alternate unemployment rate was 13.8%.  (The alternate unemployment rate increased this month primarily due to an increase in the number of involuntary part-time workers; that is, the number of people working part-time who would rather work full-time.  This number increased by 225,000 in March.)
  • The labor force increased by 503,000 in March, presumably as the weather improved and people started to look for work or were actually hired.
  • The number of people employed, including agricultural and self-employed, increased 476,000 in March, with an increase of 184,000 employed full-time.
  • Since the "trough" of the recession in late 2009/early 2010 in seasonally adjusted numbers:
    • 8.3 million MORE jobs in total
    • 8.9 million MORE private sector jobs
    • 7.8 million MORE people working* 
    Since Bush left office & Obama took office (January 2009) in seasonally adjusted numbers:
    • 4.0 million MORE jobs in total
    • 4.7 million MORE private sector jobs
    • 3.6 million MORE people working*

Check back for more reports later in the day.

March 2014 reports to be published: (Notation on the links will be changed to "Updated for March" when the updated reports become available.) 




Expectations:
  • The "pundits" expected the March report to show robust job growth as the weather has improved from that of January and February.  A Reuters poll predicted a gain of 200,000 jobs in March.
  • An article in USA Today quotes economists expecting 195,000 up to 230,000 new jobs.
  • Fox News also quotes estimates of 200,000 new jobs with unemployment dropping to 6.6%.
  • The ADP (payroll service) private employment report which was released Wednesday, April 2nd, showed a gain of 191,000 private sector jobs.

2 comments:

  1. Don't more people join the working age population than retire or die? My understanding is that the economy needs about 180,000 new jobs per month just to keep up with population growth. That being said, it would seem approximately 12,960,000 jobs should have been created during the past 6 years just to keep up with population growth.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We only need about 65,000 to 90,000 new jobs a month to accommodate the "growth" in population.. Because almost all of the "growth" in population is occurring among people 55+, and people in those age groups are rapidly retiring. I calculated this last year, though I should update my numbers:

      We only need 65,600 jobs a month

      Delete

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