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Unemployment up at 3.7%...AUG jobs under Trump HERE

Friday, September 5, 2014

What Was the Unemployment Rate When Obama Took Office (compared to now)? August 2014

November 2014 jobs summary and highlights were released this morning, Friday, December 5th.  Details HERE.

This article has been updated for November 2014 HERE. 




What was the unemployment rate when Bush left office and Obama was inaugurated and took office? 7.8%


What was the unemployment rate after Obama's first full month in office (February 2009)?  8.3%

What was the unemployment rate at peak?  10.0%
What is today's (August 2014's) unemployment rate?   6.1%  


All Latest Jobs and Unemployment Reports HERE
August 2014 Jobs Numbers, Unemployment Reports Listed HERE

How many people were looking for work when Obama was inaugurated; how many were working?  And how many people are looking for work and how many are employed now?

Read below the graph.

The following chart shows the unemployment rate in three month intervals plus the last three months:



 Why are there two lines, one for "Seas Adjusted" and one for "Unadjusted"?

The Bureau of Labor Statistics uses seasonal adjustments to adjust for the volatility in the labor market from one month to the next.  The relatively even declining red line above shows the unemployment rate based on seasonally adjusted numbers.  The jagged green line shows the unemployment rate based on "real", "raw" numbers; the unadjusted rate.  Notice that the green line goes up in January (after holiday layoffs) and July (school-related layoffs), and it goes down in October and April, which are strong months for workers.  (Employees are all back to school in October, and employers are staffing up for the holidays.  Schools are also full in April and employers are starting to staff up for summer, construction, vacation venues, etc.)  The red line helps us to compare the unemployment rate over a period of months; the green line, however, reflects "reality":  Your friends, neighbors, and family members actually working or not working.  
READ MORE HERE!
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What Was the Unemployment Rate When Obama Took Office (Compared to now)? August 2014


This report has been updated for September 2014 HERE.

What was the unemployment rate when Bush left office and Obama was inaugurated and took office? 7.8%


What was the unemployment rate after Obama's first full month in office (February 2009)?  8.3%

What was the unemployment rate at peak?  10.0%
What is today's (August 2014's) unemployment rate?   6.1%  


All Latest Jobs and Unemployment Reports HERE

How many people were looking for work when Obama was inaugurated; how many were working?  And how many people are looking for work and how many are employed now?

Read below the graph.

The following chart shows the unemployment rate in three month intervals plus the last three months:



 Why are there two lines, one for "Seas Adjusted" and one for "Unadjusted"?

The Bureau of Labor Statistics uses seasonal adjustments to adjust for the volatility in the labor market from one month to the next.  The relatively even declining red line above shows the unemployment rate based on seasonally adjusted numbers.  The jagged green line shows the unemployment rate based on "real", "raw" numbers; the unadjusted rate.  Notice that the green line goes up in January (after holiday layoffs) and July (school-related layoffs), and it goes down in October and April, which are strong months for workers.  (Employees are all back to school in October, and employers are staffing up for the holidays.  Schools are also full in April and employers are starting to staff up for summer, construction, vacation venues, etc.)  The red line helps us to compare the unemployment rate over a period of months; the green line, however, reflects "reality":  Your friends, neighbors, and family members actually working or not working.  
READ MORE HERE!
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How Many Jobs Has Obama Created or Lost?

February 2015 Highlights and Jobs Reports will be released Friday morning, March 6th.  Details HERE.

This article has been updated for February 2015 HERE. 

The following numbers are outdated.  For current numbers, please see either of the links above.

How many NET jobs created or lost under Obama* as of August 2014?  How many private sector jobs have been lost or added during Obama's presidency?

How many new jobs in the last 5 1/2 years since Obama was inaugurated?  How many Americans were working or employed when Obama took office... compared to now?


Numbers for August with latest revisions:

Since the "trough" of the recession in late 2009/early 2010 in seasonally adjusted numbers:
  • 9.4 million MORE jobs in total
  • 10.0 million MORE private sector jobs
  • 8.4 million MORE people working
How many workers were full-time or part-time at the "trough" of the recession in late 2009/early 2010 compared to now?

  • 8.1 million MORE people working full-time.
  • 264,000 MORE people working part-time.  
  • (Yes, despite what you may have heard, from the depth of the recession until now, we have many more additional people working full-time vs. part-time jobs. When a recession hits, companies generally cut back on full-time workers first.  When companies start hiring again, the number of full-time workers increases.)

Since Bush left office & Obama took office (January 2009) in seasonally adjusted numbers:
  • 5.1 million MORE jobs in total
  • 5.8 million MORE private sector jobs
  • 4.2 million MORE people working

How many workers were full-time or part-time when Obama was inaugurated compared to now?

  • 2.8 million MORE people working full-time
  • 1.4 million MORE people working part-time



Have any private jobs been lost (net) over the past 54 months since February 2010?

NO!
  • 54 months of consecutive private-sector job growth.

Have any jobs been lost (net) over the past 47 months since September 2010?

NO!
  • 47 months of consecutive overall job growth.
Are more people unemployed now than when Obama took office in January 2009?  

NO!
  • Despite 1,749,000 MORE people in the labor force (either working or actively looking for work) now vs. January 2009, there are 2,467,000 FEWER people unemployed now than in January 2009. 


*What's the difference between "net" and "gross" jobs gained and lost?


Let's get something straight:  Jobs are lost every week and every month. People are fired, people are laid off, businesses or locations are closed and everybody is let go.  

Also people quit every week.  You yourself, dear reader,  may have quit a job at some point in time. 


But people are also HIRED every week and every month.  New businesses open, businesses expand, businesses replace people who have left or been fired.  Every week.  You yourself, dear reader, may have been hired for a job at some point in time.This happens in good times and bad. 

Yes, even in bad times, people are getting hired.  Even in good times, people are let go.  

Now:  The monthly jobs report, upon which this article is based, presents estimates based on surveys as to how many jobs are gained or lost in a given month.  Those numbers are based on the number of new jobs (people getting hired, businesses opening) MINUS the number of jobs that have been cut (people getting fired, people quitting, businesses closing or cutting back).

The monthly jobs report therefore reports NET job growth or loss.  


For 47 months in this country, we have had MORE jobs being added than we have had jobs being cut.  For 54 months in the private sector (not counting federal workers, state or local workers such as teachers, firemen, cops, or people who staff the DMV, only counting people who work for private businesses), we have had MORE jobs added than we have had jobs being cut.
To reiterate:  How many jobs have been created in the last 5 years versus how many jobs have been lost?
All numbers provided on monthly jobs reports, which is what the series on jobs created/lost under Obama is based, are NET jobs numbers.  In other words, they reflect gains after all job losses are subtracted, or they reflect job losses after all gains are added. 
For the past 54 months (as of August 2014), we have had NET gains in private jobs numbers every month.  In other words, in every month since February 2010, more private jobs have been created than have been lost.  In every month since September 2010, more jobs in total have been created than have been lost.
Fact check and important information on these jobs numbers...

The above jobs numbers are from the BLS jobs report of August 2014, which was released in early September 2014.  The surveys used to gather these numbers in August are taken as of the week which includes the 12th day of the month, in this case, August 12, 2014. 

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August 2014 Unemployment Rate, Jobs

August 2014 Jobs Numbers and Unemployment Rate were released earlier this morning, Friday, September 5, 2014.

  • Jobs were added, but the number of new jobs was below average compared to the last year.  August, however, is often a transitional month, with summer jobs over and fall jobs, particularly in education, not yet started.  The BLS reports that 142,000 payroll jobs were added in August.  This was lower than the 200,000+ new jobs estimated. 
  • The unemployment rate decreased slightly to 6.1% as the number of unemployed dropped by 80,000. The drop in the number of unemployed occurred mostly in the youngest employment age groups, among people aged 16 to 24.  This is typical for August as this group of people exits the labor force as they prepare to return to school.  The number of people employed increased by 16,000, with an increase of 252,000 among the prime 25 to 54 year old work force.  
  • Full-time workers increased by 127,000 in August, while part-time workers decreased 327,000.  Over the past year, the number of full-time workers has increased by 2.3 million and the number of part-time workers has decreased by 145,000. 
  • Since the "trough" of the recession in late 2009/early 2010 in seasonally adjusted numbers:
    • 9.4 million MORE jobs in total
    • 10.0 million MORE private sector jobs
    • 8.4 million MORE people working* 
    Since Bush left office & Obama took office (January 2009) in seasonally adjusted numbers:
    • 5.1 million MORE jobs in total
    • 5.8 million MORE private sector jobs
    • 4.2 million MORE people working*

Details and analysis will be added throughout the day and over the weekend.  Please check back for updates!

August 2014 reports to be published: (Notation on the links will be changed to "August" or "Updated for August" when the updated reports become available.) 



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ADP Report: 204,000 New Private Sector Jobs in August


The private payroller processor ADP released its monthly employment report this morning Thursday, September 4th.  


The ADP report usually precedes the official BLS report by a day or two and doesn't contain quite as much information.  However, it is usually a good harbinger of the BLS report.  This morning ADP says that 204,000 new private payroll jobs were added in August 2014. 



Now for years, since Obama took office, the "pundits" were declaring that we needed at least 200,000 new jobs per month to consider that we had any kind of momentum in terms of job growth. But, now that we have had 200+ total job growth in 15 of the past 22 months (and 8 out of the last 10 months).. we have commentators saying things like "U.S. businesses slowed their pace of hiring in August, according to an employment survey released Thursday. The survey, along with other job-related news, suggests a firming but not robust labor market." That was the Wall Street Journal reporting. 

Steve Rothwell at msn.money wrote: "STRONG HIRING: U.S. businesses added jobs at a healthy pace in August, according to a private survey, the fifth straight month of solid gains. Payroll processer ADP said Thursday that private employers added 204,000 jobs last month, down from 212,000 in July, which was revised slightly lower. Job gains above 200,000 are usually enough to lower the unemployment rate." 

Yep, that's a better lead in, but, because we have so many people retiring, we really don't need more than 100,000 new jobs a month to lower the unemployment rate. In fact, we have "only" averaged 175,000 new jobs over the past 4 1/2 years, since the unemployment rate peaked, and the unemployment rate has come down 3.8%. It has come down 1.6% over these past 22 months.

Read the whole report HERE.
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