AUG: +151,000 jobs. Unemployment rate steady at 4.9%. AUG details here!.. Jobs since Obama took office?... Unemp. rate under Obama?

Friday, May 8, 2015

How Many Jobs Created or Lost Under Obama? (April 2015 update)

This report has been updated HERE.
The following report is outdated.




How many NET jobs created or lost under Obama* as of April 2015? How many private sector jobs have been lost or added during Obama's presidency?


How many new jobs in the last 6 years since Obama was inaugurated?  How many Americans were working or employed when Obama took office... compared to now?

Since the "trough" of the recession in late 2009/early 2010 in seasonally adjusted numbers:
  • 11,718,000 MORE payroll jobs in total
  • 12,287,000 MORE private sector jobs
  • 10,510,000 MORE people working (includes self-employed and agricultural workers)

How many workers were full-time or part-time at the "trough" of the recession in late 2009/early 2010 compared to now?

  • 10,213,000 MORE people working full-time.
  • 259,000 MORE people working part-time.  
  • (Yes, despite what you may have heard, from the depth of the recession until now, we have many more additional people working full-time vs. part-time jobs. When a recession hits, companies generally cut back on full-time workers first.  When companies start hiring again, the number of full-time workers increases.)

Since Bush left office & Obama took office (January 2009) in seasonally adjusted numbers:
  • 7,390,000 MORE jobs in total
  • 8,062,000 MORE private sector jobs
  • 6,371,000 MORE people working

How many workers were full-time or part-time when Obama was inaugurated compared to now?

  • 4,954,000 MORE people working full-time
  • 1,361,000 MORE people working part-time




Have any private jobs been lost (net) over the past 62 months since February 2010?


NO!
  • 62 months of consecutive private-sector job growth.
  • The longest consecutive period of private-sector job increases since this number has been recorded. 
  • ALL jobs losses since the recession (January 2008 was the prior peak of jobs) have been made up, added back, or recovered.

Have any jobs been lost (net) over the past 55 months since September 2010?

NO!
  • 55 months of consecutive overall job growth.

Are more people unemployed now than when Obama took office in January 2009?  

NO!
  • Despite 2,862,000 MORE people in the labor force (either working or actively looking for work) now vs. January 2009, there are 3,509,000 FEWER people unemployed now than in January 2009. 




*What's the difference between "net" and "gross" jobs gained and lost?How many jobs have been created in the last 6 years versus how many jobs have been lost?


Let's get something straight:  Jobs are lost every week and every month. People are fired, people are laid off, businesses or locations are closed and everybody is let go. 
 

Also people quit every week.  You yourself, dear reader,  may have quit a job at some point in time. 


But people are also HIRED every week and every month.  New businesses open, businesses expand, businesses replace people who have left or been fired.  Every week.  You yourself, dear reader, may have been hired for a job at some point in time.This happens in good times and bad. 

Yes, even in bad times, people are getting hired.  Even in good times, people are let go.  

Now:  The monthly jobs reportupon which this article is based, presents estimates based on surveys as to how many jobs are gained or lost in a given month.  Those numbers are based on the number of new jobs (people getting hired, businesses opening) MINUS the number of jobs that have been cut (people getting fired, people quitting, businesses closing or cutting back).



The monthly jobs report therefore reports NET job growth or loss.  


For 55 months in this country (as of April 2015), we have had MORE jobs being added than we have had jobs being cut.  For 62 months in the private sector (not counting federal workers, state or local workers such as teachers, firemen, cops, or people who staff the DMV, only counting people who work for private businesses), we have had MORE jobs added than we have had jobs being cut.

To reiterate:  How many jobs have been created in the last 6 years versus how many jobs have been lost?
All numbers provided on monthly jobs reports, which is what the series on jobs created/lost under Obama is based, are NET jobs numbers.  In other words, they reflect gains after all job losses are subtracted, or they reflect job losses after all gains are added. 
For the past 62 months (as of April 2015), we have had NET gains in private jobs numbers every month.  In other words, in every month since February 2010, more private jobs have been created than have been lost.  In every month since September 2010, more jobs in total have been created than have been lost.  This is the longest consecutive period of job growth since these numbers have been recorded.

Fact check and important information on these jobs numbers...

The above jobs numbers are from the BLS jobs report of April 2015, which was released in early May 2015.  The surveys used to gather these numbers are taken as of the week which includes the 12th day of the month, in this case, April 12, 2015. 

2 comments:

  1. Job LOSS for 2015:
    May~ 1,3255,875
    June ~ 1,255,222
    People FILING FIRST time unemployment benifits monthly.
    I said it because you won't.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Kevin, I just saw your comment now; let's see if I can clear up some misconceptions for you.

      Do you understand the difference between NET and GROSS numbers? I don't know if you are a hiker, but if you are, you know the importance of drinking water, a lot of water, while you are on the trail. You are losing water all the time to sweat as well as urine,and you need to make sure that you are replacing all of that water. So your GROSS intake of water is probably not as important as the NET.. making sure you are replacing the water that you have lost.

      Likewise in jobs, we have MILLIONS of people being hired and MILLIONS of people leaving their jobs for various reasons every month. These are the GROSS numbers. Let's look at the latest report of the number of people leaving their jobs and being hired in GROSS numbers:

      In June 2015, 5,177,000 people were HIRED.
      - 2,748,000 quit their jobs.
      - 1,791,000 people were laid off or fired (not too far from the number of people filing for unemployment)
      - 392,000 people left their jobs for "other" reasons, most of them probably retired. Altogether, a total of 4,931,000 people left their jobs for any reason (quitting, being fired, retirement).

      If you subtract the GROSS number of people leaving their jobs from the GROSS number of people being hired, you will get the NET number of additional (new) jobs in June 2015. That comes out to 246,000 new jobs NET.

      As the people who produce the Job Openings, Layoffs, and Turnover Survey use different sources than the people who produce the monthly jobs report, these numbers initially are close but not exact. The latest number of new jobs for June 2015 is 231,000, very, very close, however, to the 246,000 estimated by the JOLTS report.

      So.... First time unemployment claims are GROSS numbers and do NOT indicate how many people were hired. Monthly jobs numbers are NET numbers and do reflect the number of hires during a month minus the number of people who left their jobs for any reason.

      Also, you will notice that the number of people QUITTING their jobs is now much higher than the number of people who were laid off or fired.

      So.. .My numbers ARE correct, as are the number of people filing for first time unemployment claims. There is NO NET job loss in 2015, and there has been NO NET job loss since September 2010 in this country. Let me clarify that: It doesn't mean that people have not LOST their jobs; it means that more people, MANY MORE people are being hired than are leaving their jobs for any reason.

      Delete

I appreciate intelligent comments and questions, including those that are at odds with anything posted here. I have elected not to screen comments before they are published; however, any comments that are in any way insulting, caustic, or intentionally inflammatory will be deleted without notice. Spam will also be immediately deleted.