NOV Fri, Dec 2: +178,000 jobs. Unemployment rate drops to 4.6%.NOV details here!.. Jobs since Obama took office?... Unemp. rate under Obama?

Friday, April 6, 2012

How Many Jobs Has Obama Created or Lost? (March 2012 update)



How Many Jobs Has Obama Created or Lost? (November 2014 update)




Latest jobs reports indexed HERE.



The following numbers are from March 2012.  For current numbers and reports, please click one of the above links.





How many jobs added or lost since the "trough" of the recession? 
3,577,000 gained since "trough" of recession.

How many private sector jobs added or lost since the "trough" of the recession?
4,052,000 gained since the "trough" of the recession.

25 months of private-sector job growth.
18 months of over all job growth.

How many jobs have been lost or gained during the Obama administration?  Have more new jobs been created or have more jobs been lost under Obama to date?  (How many jobs added under Obama?)    


Summary (as of March 2012):  We are still in negative territory in terms of jobs numbers since Obama took office.  We still have 740,000 FEWER jobs now than when Obama was inaugurated and 161,000 FEWER jobs in the private sector than when Obama was inaugurated.


However, we are now adding jobs at a fair clip, with an average of 165,000 MORE jobs  total added per month since December 2010, and an average of  182,000 MORE jobs added per month in the private sector since December 2010.

Here's a summary of data from the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics).  All numbers lost to the "trough" of the recession reflect ALL non-farm jobs lost between the time Obama took office and the lowest point of the recession in late 2009/early 2010 :
(Note:  All of the jobs numbers are NET numbers.  In other words, we know that jobs are lost and added every month, in good years and in bad.  The numbers reported here, based on Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers, are "net" numbers; that is, the number of jobs gained after the number of jobs lost is subtracted, or the number of jobs lost after the number of jobs gained is added.)  
Seasonally adjusted:
  • All jobs lost from the time Obama took office to "trough" (bottom of recession): .....4,317,000
  • All jobs gained since "trough": ....3,577,000
Net LOSS in seasonally-adjusted jobs since Obama took office: .... 740,000                     

"Raw:" numbers not seasonally adjusted:
  • Jobs lost from the time Obama took office to trough: .....4,246,000                                                    
  • Jobs gained since "trough": .......4,701,000
Net GAINED in raw unadjusted jobs since Obama took office: ..... 455,000 

*Though, as of March 2012, we still have fewer jobs (in adjusted numbers) than when President Obama took office, jobs are being added at a faster clip under Obama than under George Bush at the same time in his presidency.  At this point in Bush's presidency (March 2004), there were still 1,664,000 fewer jobs than when he was inaugurated in January 2001 (compared to 740,000 fewer for Obama).  The number of jobs didn't eclipse the number when Bush was first inaugurated until February 2005, in Bush's second term.    



How many private sector jobs have been gained or lost since Obama took office?

Seasonally adjusted:
  • Private-sector jobs lost to "trough" (bottom of recession): .....4,212,000
  • Private-sector jobs gained since "trough": .....4,052,000
         
*(This is the number often used by Obama and the Democrats as the number of private jobs created since the "trough" of the recession .  It is a correct number, but it is a seasonally-adjusted number.  In "real" unadjusted numbers, 4,661,000 private sector jobs have been created since the "trough" of the recession.)
  
Net LOSS in seasonally-adjusted private-sector jobs since Obama took office: ....161,000                      



"Raw:" numbers not seasonally adjusted: 
  • Private-sector jobs lost to "trough": .....4,151,000 
  • Private-sector jobs gained since "trough": .....4,661,000                           
Net GAIN in "raw" unadjusted private-sector jobs since Obama took office: .....510,000  

*Though, as of March 2012, we still have fewer private-sector jobs (in adjusted numbers) than when President Obama took office, jobs are being added at a faster clip under Obama than under George Bush at the same time in his presidency.  At this point in Bush's presidency (March 2004), there were still 2,417,000 fewer private sector jobs than when he was inaugurated in January 2001 (compared to 161,000 fewer for Obama).  The number of private-sector jobs didn't eclipse the number when Bush was first inaugurated until June 2005, in Bush's second term.    

                  
Summary of March jobs activity: 

Jobs increased 120,000 in total in March 2012 (vs. a revised increase of 240,000 in February). Private sector jobs continued to increase while government sector jobs continued to decrease. Private sector jobs increased by 121,000 (vs. a revised increase of 233,000 in February), while government jobs decreased by 1,000 (vs. a revised increase of 7,000 in February).  

Is it true that over 4 million private sector jobs have been created in the Obama administration as the Democrats claim?

(Summary of gross and net jobs activity since Obama was inaugurated is below the jump---  Keep reading!)


Yes, if one is looking at numbers created from the bottom ("trough") of the recession.  In fact, that number is now low.  In seasonally adjusted numbers as of March 2012, 4,052,000 private-sector jobs have been created since the bottom of the recession.   (Remember that job loss continued for about a year after Obama was inaugurated.)


How many workers have been laid off or hired (net) during the Obama administration?  

Seasonally adjusted:  
  • Fewer people working (net) to "trough" : .....4,219,000 
  • More people working (net) since "trough": ....4,066,000      
Net LOSS in seasonally-adjusted number of people working since Obama took office: .....153,000                    



"Raw:" numbers not seasonally adjusted:
  • Fewer workers to "trough": .......3,627,000
  • More workers since "trough": .....4,603,000
Net GAIN in "raw" unadjusted number of people working since Obama took office:    .....976,000        

Can you summarize the above?
  • Obama was inaugurated in January 2009 when the economy was in free fall and we were losing about 700,000 jobs a month.  Over 4,400,000 jobs were lost before Obama took office.  
  • The employment situation did not bottom out until late 2009 or early 2010.  An additional 4,300,000 jobs were lost between the time that Obama took office and the bottom ("trough") of the recession.  
  • That's a total job loss of at least 8,700,000 jobs over approximately 2 years.
  • Since the economy started to add jobs under Obama, 3,577,000 jobs have been added using seasonally-adjusted numbers (See below). 
  • Since the economy started to add jobs under Obama, 4,701,000 jobs have been added using "real" unadjusted numbers.  
  • We still need more jobs to overcome the loss of jobs that started in 2008 and to make up for the increase in population since 2008.  Please remember that over 49,000,000 people were laid off between Spring of 2008 and the end of 2009, even though people continued to be hired during that time. 
  • However, in non-seasonally adjusted "raw" numbers, we now have MORE people reporting themselves as working than we did when Obama took office, and we are approaching that point in all numbers of jobs and workers. 

How did you come up with these numbers?  Why isn't there one number instead of all of these?    



Counting jobs or workers is very tricky. In seasonal numbers, we have still lost more jobs and workers in the first year of Obama's administration, when the economy was struggling to pull out of recession, than we have gained during the second and third years of Obama's administration when we have experienced job growth.  We are still running a jobs/workers deficit in seasonally-adjusted numbers since Obama took office; however, every month that deficit shrinks.    


Job growth was brisk in the first months of 2011, slowed down towards the middle of the year, then picked up during the last months of the year.  Job growth has continued now into 2012.  Despite the lull in mid 2011, private sector job growth continued throughout 2011.  We now have 25 months straight of private sector job growth.  

There's usually no one number that explains everything, and most monthly numbers need to be seen as "trends", not absolutes.  People use the unemployment rate, but even that can vary for so many reasons that don't really reflect the true state of the labor market.

A few explanations and more detail:


What is a "trough"?  When did we hit the low point of jobs and workers?  When did we hit the high point of unemployment? 

I use the term "trough" to designate the lowest point of jobs or workers in this recession.  The various counts reach their "troughs" in various months, so it may be a bit confusing.  The unemployment rate reached its high point in October 2009.  The seasonally adjusted number of workers reached its low point in December 2009, but so many workers had dropped out of the work force that the unemployment rate had actually come down.  In raw, unadjusted numbers of workers and jobs, we reached our nadir in January 2010.  The seasonally-adjusted number of jobs reached its low point a month later, in February 2010. 

How Many Jobs were Lost from the time Obama took office until the "trough" of jobs lost?
  • In seasonally adjusted numbers, employers reported 133,561,000 jobs in January 2009.  At the trough of the recession in February 2010, there were 129,244,000 jobs.  That's a loss of 4,317,000 jobs from the time Obama took office until the "trough" of the recession. 
  • In "raw" numbers (not adjusted for seasonal variances), employers reported 131,555,000 jobs in January 2009.  At the trough of the recession in January 2010, there were 127,309,000 jobs.  That's loss of  4,246,000 jobs from the time Obama took office until the "trough" of the recession. 

How Many Fewer Were Employed from the time Obama took office until the "trough" of employment?
  • In seasonally adjusted numbers, 142,187,000 people reported themselves as employed in January 2009.  At the trough of the recession in December 2009, 137,968,000 people reported themselves as employed.  That's a loss of 4,219,000 employed people from the time Obama took office until the "trough" of the recession.
  • In "raw" numbers (not adjusted for seasonal variances), 140,436,000 people reported themselves as employed in January 2009.  At the trough of the recession in January 2010, 136,809,000 people reported themselves as employed.  That's a loss of 3,627,000 employed people from the time Obama took office until the "trough" of the recession. 


What was the unemployment rate when Obama took office?  How high did it go? 
  • For the record, when Obama took office in January 2009, the "official" unemployment rate in seasonally adjusted numbers was 7.8%, with 12,049,000 people reported themselves as unemployed and actively looking.  In "raw" numbers not adjusted for seasonal variance, the unemployment rate was already 8.5% with 13,009,000 people reporting themselves as unemployed and actively looking for work.
  • At the trough of the recession in late 2009/early 2010, the "official" unemployment rate in seasonally adjusted numbers was 10.0% in October 2009 with 15,421,000 people (out of a labor force of about 153,822,000) reporting themselves as unemployed.  In "raw" numbers not adjusted for seasonal variance, the unemployment rate reached a peak of 10.6% in January 2010 with 16,147,000 (out of a labor force of about 153,000,000) reporting themselves as unemployed and actively looking for work.
  • Now, in March 2012, the "official" unemployment rate in seasonally adjusted numbers is 8.2%, which is equal to the January 2012 unemployment rate with 12,673,000 (out of a labor force of 154,707,000) reporting themselves as unemployed.  In unadjusted "raw" numbers, the unemployment rate is now 8.4%, a decrease of .3% (three-tenths of a percent) compared to the unadjusted unemployment rate in February 2012.  



How many jobs have been created since the "trough" of the recession in late 2009/early 2010 to now, March 2012?
  • In seasonally adjusted numbers, 3,577,000 jobs have been created since the "trough" of the recession in February 2010.
  • In raw unadjusted numbers, 4,701,000 jobs have been created since the "trough" of the recession in January 2010.



How many more people reported they were working since the "trough" of the recession in late 2009/early 2010 to now, February 2012?  
  • In seasonally adjusted numbers, 4,066,000 more people are working since the trough of the recession in December 2009.
  • In "raw" unadjusted numbers, 4,609,000 more people are working since the trough of the recession in January 2010.
(Note:  All of my employment number reports are based on monthly reports and data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  Monthly numbers reports are based on the monthly Employment Situation Report.  The Employment Situation report includes month over month and year over year numbers of jobs and workers.  My analysis is taken from the monthly BLS data copied to an Excel spreadsheet every month.  I calculate detailed percentage increases/decreases, 3 month numbers, 2011 to date numbers, and I compare jobs numbers to those at the time of Obama's inauguration and at the "trough" of the recession.  As the BLS revises its numbers as new information is available, I use the latest available numbers in my monthly articles, which means that those numbers may differ slightly from numbers published in previous months.)

No comments:

Post a Comment

I appreciate intelligent comments and questions, including those that are at odds with anything posted here. I have elected not to screen comments before they are published; however, any comments that are in any way insulting, caustic, or intentionally inflammatory will be deleted without notice. Spam will also be immediately deleted.