AUG#: +130,000 jobs.

Unemployment up at 3.7%...AUG jobs under Trump HERE

Friday, December 4, 2015

What was the unemployment rate when Obama took office and Bush left office? (Updated for November 2015)

This report has been updated for JUNE 2016 HERE


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All June 2016 reports and details HERE.
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This report is outdated.  For current reports, please click on one of the links above. 


What was the unemployment rate when Bush left office and Obama was inaugurated and took office? What was the unemployment rate when Obama came into office?
                                   7.8% 

What was the unemployment rate after Obama's first full month in office (February 2009)?  
                                              8.3%

What was the unemployment rate at peak?  

                                                                            10.0%


What is the unemployment rate now (November 2015)?    
                                                                                                            5.0%  


How many people were looking for work when Obama was inaugurated; how many were working?  And how many people are looking for work and how many are employed now?

Please read below the graph.


The following chart shows the unemployment rate in three month intervals plus the last three months:





Why are there two lines, one for "Seas Adjusted" and one for "Unadjusted" in the chart above?  This is explained at the bottom of the article.
  • What Caused the Rise in Unemployment When Obama Took Office?  Obama caused the unemployment rate to rise?  (Continue reading; the answer  is below the fold.)
  •  What Was the Unemployment Rate When Bush Took Office?  How high did it rise?  (The answer is also below the fold.)  

How Many Jobs Has Obama Created or Lost? (November 2015 update)

How many NET jobs created or lost under Obama* as of November 2015? How many private sector jobs have been lost or added during Obama's presidency?


This report has been updated for 
November 2016 HERE!

The numbers below are outdated.  Please click on the link above for current numbers.


How many new jobs in the last 7 years since Obama was inaugurated?  How many Americans were working or employed when Obama took office... compared to now?



Private sector job growth has been stable and consistent since early 2010 with 69 months of consecutive private sector job growth.







e



November 2015 Unemployment Rate, Jobs

The November Jobs Reports were released this morning, Friday, December 4. The numbers are about what was expected; decent jobs numbers but not exceptional. They almost surely mean that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its next meeting in December.







November Highlights:
  • 211,000 total new payroll jobs; 197,000 new private sector jobs; 14,000 increase in the number of government jobs.  These numbers are very close to the 200,000 jobs that the pundits and prognosticators predicted.  
  • If there is a concern in this report, it is the increase in the number of people working part-time because they can't find full-time work.  However, this number is volatile and may well decline next month, as it has generally for the past 4-5 years.  Full-time/part-time breakdown will be available HERE later today.  
  • The BLS increased both the September and October estimates.  September numbers were increased slightly by 8,000 from +137,000 to +145,000, and the October estimate was increased by 27,000 from +271,000 to +298,000.   From the BLS:  "With these revisions, employment gains in September and October combined were 35,000 more than previously reported. Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 218,000 per month."
  • The unemployment rate stayed exactly the same at 5.0% as the number of unemployed increased slightly by 29,000 and as the number of people employed increased by 244,000
  • The number of people not in the labor force (people 16 years of age and older who are in school, retired, e home with children, etc.) decreased slightly to 94,446,000.  
  • Alternate unemployment rate increased slightly from 9.8% to 9.9%.  That decline primarily reflected an increase of about 300,000 in the number of people who were working part-time "involuntarily" because they couldn't find full-time jobs. (That number has declined by 800,000 over the past year and about 1,629,000 over the past two years.) 
  • As mentioned above, the labor force participation rate increased slightly to 62.5%.  The labor force participation rate has been between  62.4%  and 62.6% for the past five months.  Year over year, we have about 900,000 MORE people in the labor force DESPITE large numbers of Baby Boomers retiring.  Remember that there is NO ideal labor force participation rate and most of the ongoing decrease in the labor force participation rate is due to these large numbers of retiring Baby Boomers.
  • The overall number of people employed increased by  244,000.  
  • The number of people working full-time increased by 3,000 last month; the number of people working part-time increased by about 137,000 last month. The number of people working part-time INVOLUNTARILY increased by 319,000 and the number of people working part-time VOLUNTARILY decreased by 12,000.  There are 2.5 million MORE people working full-time than there were a year ago, and 455,000 FEWER people working part-time than a year ago.
MORE TO COME.....

November 2015 reports: (As usual, notation on the links will be changed to "UPDATED for November" when the updated reports become available.  Not all reports are updated every month.) 

More highlights and reports will continue to be posted here throughout the day and over the weekend.  Please check back!

Friday, November 6, 2015

What Was the Unemployment rate when Obama took office and Bush left office? (Updated for October 2015)

This report has been updated for AUGUST 2016 HERE


***********************************************************************
All August 2016 reports and details HERE.
***********************************************************************

This report is outdated.  For current reports, please click on one of the links above. 


What was the unemployment rate when Bush left office and Obama was inaugurated and took office? What was the unemployment rate when Obama came into office?
                                   7.8% 

What was the unemployment rate after obama's first full month in office (February 2009)?  
                                              8.3%

What was the unemployment rate at peak?  

                                                                            10.0%


What is the unemployment rate now (October 2015)?    
                                                                                                            5.0%  

All Latest Jobs and Unemployment Reports HERE

How many people were looking for work when Obama was inaugurated; how many were working?  And how many people are looking for work and how many are employed now?

Please read below the graph.


The following chart shows the unemployment rate in three month intervals plus the last three months:






Why are there two lines, one for "Seas Adjusted" and one for "Unadjusted" in the chart above?  This is explained at the bottom of the article.
  • What Caused the Rise in Unemployment When Obama Took Office?  Obama caused the unemployment rate to rise?  (Continue reading; the answer  is below the fold.)
  •  What Was the Unemployment Rate When Bush Took Office?  How high did it rise?  (The answer is also below the fold.)  

How Many Jobs Has Obama Created or Lost? (October 2015 update)

This report has been updated HERE.
The following report is outdated.

How many NET jobs created or lost under Obama* as of October 2015? 
How many private sector jobs have been lost or added during Obama's presidency?


How many new jobs in the last 6 1/2 years since Obama was inaugurated?  How many Americans were working or employed when Obama took office... compared to now?


Continue below.....


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November 2015 numbers were released Fri., Dec. 6.  Reports listed HERE.

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e



October 2015 Unemployment Rate, Jobs - Unexpected!



The October Jobs Reports were released Friday morning, November 6.  These are the best jobs numbers in several months, meaning that the Federal Reserve is more likely to raise interest rates at its next meeting in December.  


Not only was the whole report very decent, but the whole economy created
8,023,000 jobs over the past three years, from October 2012 until now.  That's the first time since late 2000 that the economy has created over 8 million jobs in three years.  Over those same three years, 6.4 million MORE people are working full-time.  (No, the definition of "full-time employment" according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics has not changed since Obama took office.)




October Highlights:

  • 271,000 total new payroll jobs; 268,000 new private sector jobs; a small 3,000 increase in the number of government jobs.)  These numbers are much higher than the 180,000 jobs that the pundits and prognosticators predicted.  Full-time/part-time breakdown will be available HERE later today.)  This is a welcome increase after the last two months of anemic job growth, and the numbers mark a return to the job growth that was typical earlier this summer.
  • The BLS changed their August and September estimates slightly.  August numbers were increased by 17,000 from +136,000 to +153,000, and the September estimate was decreased slightly from +142,000 to +137,000.  From the BLS:  "With these revisions, employment gains in August and September combined were 12,000 more than previously reported. Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 187,000 per month. "
  • The unemployment rate declined slightly to 5.0% as the number of unemployed decreased slightly by 7,000 and as the number of people employed increased by 320,000, and as 313,000 people entered the labor force.  
  • We now have 7,908,000 officially unemployed, the lowest number of unemployed since April 2008, 7 1/2 years ago.  As a result of more people in the labor force, the labor force participation rate increased very slightly from 62.36% to 62.43%.
  • The number of people not in the labor force (people in school, people retired, people home with children, etc.) decreased slightly to 94,513,000.  
  • Alternate unemployment rate fell from 10.0% to 9.8%.  That decline primarily reflected a decrease in the number of people who were working part-time "involuntarily" because they couldn't find full-time jobs. (That number has declined by 1,200,000 over the past two years.) 
  • As mentioned above, the labor force participation rate is stable at 62.4%.  The labor force participation rate has been under 62.5% for the past two months after being at 62.5% for the three prior months.  Year over year, we have about 800,000 MORE people in the labor force.  
  • Remember that there is NO ideal labor force size and most of the ongoing decrease in the labor force participation rate is due to Baby Boomers retiring in great numbers.
  • The overall number of people employed increased by  320,000.  
  • The number of people working full-time increased by 185,000 last month; the number of people working part-time increased by about 214,000 last month. However, the number of people working part-time INVOLUNTARILY declined by 269,000 and the number of people working part-time VOLUNTARILY increased by 483,000.  
  • There are 2.3 million MORE people working full-time than there were a year ago, and 507,000 FEWER people working part-time than a year ago.
  • Altogether, 2,062,000 payroll jobs have been ADDED in 2015 year to date.  That's an additional 206,000 jobs per month in 2015.
  • 1,976,000 private payroll sector jobs have been ADDED in 2015 year to date.  That's an additional 197,600 private jobs per month in 2015.
October 2015 reports: (As usual, notation on the links will be changed to "UPDATED for October" when the updated reports become available.  Not all reports are updated every month.)


Tuesday, October 13, 2015

Bernie Sanders: 51% of Black Youth Are Unemployed?


Bernie Sanders claims that African-American youth unemployment rate is 51% and that the unemployment rate among Hispanic youth is 31%.  

This is not true.  


Here are the current (September 2015) unemployment rates for young African-Americans:  

  • 16-19 year olds:  31.5%
  • 20-24 year olds:  16.2%
  • 16-24 year olds as a group:  19.7%

Here are the current (September 2015) unemployment rates for young Hispanics:

  • 16-19 year olds:  18.6%
  • 20-24 year olds:    8.2%
  • 16-24 year olds as a group:  10.4%
We also have to understand that, among 2.5 million black kids 16-19 years of age, only 126,000 or about 5% are actually looking for full-time work.   80% of black kids, 16 to 19 years of age, are in school.  Less than 1% of the 80% of kids who are in school are looking for full-time jobs.
 
Sources and more information will be added. 










Friday, October 2, 2015

How Many Jobs Has Obama Created or Lost? (Updated for September 2015)

This report has been updated HERE.
The following report is outdated.


How many NET jobs created or lost under Obama* as of September 2015? 
How many private sector jobs have been lost or added during Obama's presidency?



How many new jobs in the last 6 years since Obama was inaugurated?  How many Americans were working or employed when Obama took office... compared to now?



Continue below.....


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November 2015 numbers were released Fri. Dec. 4.  Reports listed HERE.

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e



How Many Jobs Were Created or Lost in September 2015?

How Many Jobs Were Created (Gained) by firms, companies, or government employers in the U.S. in September 2015?  How many jobs were LOST in September 2015?






  • 142,000 TOTAL payroll jobs were ADDED or CREATED in seasonally adjusted numbers.  This number was slightly less than what was projected.
  • 118,000 PRIVATE payroll sector jobs were ADDED or CREATED in seasonally adjusted numbers.
  • 24,000 GOVERNMENT (federal, state, and local) jobs were ADDED or CREATED in September. 
  • 236,000 FEWER people working.
  • 185,000 FEWER people employed full-time. 
  • 53,000 MORE people employed part-time.
  • 447,000 FEWER people employed part-time involuntarily.  (In other words, people who want full-time work but can only find part-time work.)  This number has generally been going down, even when the total number of people working part-time has increased.  This means that, of people working part-time this month, in SEPTEMBER, fewer were working part-time because they couldn't find a full-time job. In in the past year, the number of people employed part-time involuntarily (because they couldn't find a full-time job) has decreased by 1,022,000.
  • 114,000 FEWER people unemployed.
  • Unemployment rate stayed the same at 5.1%.  There actually was a decrease in the unemployment rate, from 5.11% down to 5.05%.
  • The alternate unemployment rate also decreased significantly, from 10.3% to 10.0%. 
  • 350,000 FEWER people in the civilian labor force (people either working or looking for work).  The drop in the size of the labor force appears to be due to people who STOPPED WORKING and left the labor force.  What happened to the labor force in SEPTEMBER?  Continue reading below...

In NET numbers, NO jobs were lost in SEPTEMBER 2015.  Even though the number of new jobs was not great, it was a positive number, meaning that we continue to create jobs in the United States. 

If there are jobs losses, that means that there are fewer new jobs, fewer people being hired, than people being fired or jobs being cut.  If there are jobs gains, that means that there are MORE new jobs, MORE people being hired, than people being fired or jobs being cut. 


Every month since September 2010, we have had more new jobs created than jobs lost.  This is the longest period of consecutive job growth since these records have been kept.
  

The size of the Labor Force declined in September.  Did people leave the labor force in despair, discouragement, and misery?

The labor force in the United States is huge and volatile.  Millions of people enter and leave the labor force every month in the United States; you can find more specifics HERE. 


But here's what happened to people in September:

  • In August, there were 157,065,000 people in the civilian labor force.
  • 2,144,000 who were not in the labor force in August ENTERED the labor force and started LOOKING FOR WORK in September.
  • 4,016,000 who were not in the labor force in August ENTERED the labor force and started WORKING in September. 
  • Meanwhile, 2,149,000 people who had been looking for work in August STOPPED LOOKING FOR WORK and left the labor force in September.  The number of "droputs" (people who were unemployed and stopped looking for work) continues to decline and is as low as it was in early to mid 2008, before the whole economy collapsed.   
  • And 4,515,000 people who had been employed in August STOPPED WORKING (and were not looking for work) in September.  A big chunk of these people are probably retiring Baby Boomers though we don't know that for sure.  But when someone stops working and doesn't bother to look for work, it usually means that they have voluntarily left their jobs; otherwise they would continue to look for work.  2015 is on track to have the largest number of employed people who stop working and leave the labor force EVER.  Again, think retirement! 
     
  • I'll repeat that:  So far in 2015, we have had more people on average per month who have stopped working and left the labor force than ever before.  69% of the people who left the labor force in September were previously EMPLOYED, not people who were looking for work and "gave up" in despair.  That is a percentage that started decreasing in 2008 through 2010, and has been increasing since 2010.  
  • For every unemployed person who "gave up" for some reason and stopped looking for work and left the labor force, there were TWO EMPLOYED people who left their jobs and left the labor force.
     
  • For every unemployed person who "gave up" for some reason and stopped looking for work, approximately THREE people (3.00) ENTERED the labor force and either started looking for work or started working.  2015 is recording the highest percentages of people who entered the labor force compared to unemployed people "dropping out" since early to mid 2008. 
  • These numbers, plus adjustments for relatively small numbers of people turning 16, people dying, people leaving or entering the country, resulted in a smaller labor force of 156,715,000 in September.  Though a smaller labor force than in August, this is the largest labor force that we have EVER had in any September of any year.  There are still about 870,000 more people in the labor force this September than a year ago.   

As usual, the numbers in any one month need to be taken with a grain of salt, as any movements in any one month are not necessarily meaningful trends.  However, trends that continue over a period of months are meaningful.

However, we have now had 67 consecutive months of private sector job creation, a record as long as such numbers have been kept.   And we have now had 60 consecutive months of total job creation, a record as long as such numbers have been kept. 

But how many jobs were LOST in September?

All jobs numbers reported monthly by Bureau of Labor Statistics are NET jobs numbers.  In other words, they represent the number of jobs gained (newly created jobs) after all job losses are subtracted.  If there are job gains, that means that there are more new jobs, more people being hired, than people being fired or jobs being cut. 

The more specific numbers of new hires and number of jobs cut are detailed in the monthly Job Openings, Layoffs, and Turnover Survey (JOLTS) which is published about six weeks after the monthly jobs reports.  This link "How Many People were fired in 2014?" provides a more in-depth explanation of how many people lose their jobs and how many people get new jobs every month.  For example, in 2014 over 55,000 people were fired or laid off on average each DAY... but an average of 160,000 people were HIRED each DAY in 2014.

To Summarize:  

In summary, there are more newly-created payroll jobs in September, but there were fewer new jobs than predicted.  There was a small decrease in the number of employed people, and the number of people working full-time decreased.  The number of people working part-time by choice increased; the number of people working part-time involuntarily decreased.  


The unemployment rate stayed the same as more formerly employed people left the labor force, probably reflecting people retiring.

The size of the labor force declined moderately; however, an analysis of the flows data seems to indicate that the drop in the size of the labor force may have been mostly due to people who retired in September. 


What Was the Unemployment rate when Obama took office and Bush left office? (Updated for September 2015)

This report has been updated for JUNE 2016 HERE


***********************************************************************
All June 2016 reports and details HERE.
***********************************************************************

This report is outdated.  For current reports, please click on one of the links above. 


What was the unemployment rate when Bush left office and Obama was inaugurated and took office? What was the unemployment rate when Obama came into office?
  •                                                  7.8% 
What was the unemployment rate after obama's first full month in office (February 2009)?  8.3%
What was the unemployment rate at peak?  10.0%


What is the unemployment rate now?  Today's unemployment rate (September 2015)?   
5.1%  


All Latest Jobs and Unemployment Reports HERE

How many people were looking for work when Obama was inaugurated; how many were working?  And how many people are looking for work and how many are employed now?

Please read below the graph.


The following chart shows the unemployment rate in three month intervals plus the last three months: