AUG#: +130,000 jobs.

Unemployment up at 3.7%...AUG jobs under Trump HERE

Friday, February 7, 2014

Disappointed! Were Millions of Jobs Really Lost in January?

Disappointed!  We actually LOST 2,870,000 jobs in January! 

Remember "Disappointed" from "A Fish Called Wanda? 
January's jobs numbers are out, and the reports show that we only added 113,000 jobs last month.  And the December addition of 74,000 jobs was only revised to a measly 75,000.  

Does this mean that growth in jobs has ended?  Are we heading into another recession?  Is ObamaCare keeping employers from hiring?  There's a lot of speculation out there about what this number means.. or doesn't mean, and many, many bloggers and writers are claiming that they are "Disappointed" over these numbers.    

But were these numbers really so "disappointing"?

Let's remember that plus 113,000 is a seasonally adjusted number.  "Real" unadjusted numbers always go down in January.  Always.  In fact, we actually LOST 2,870,000 jobs in January; we didn't really "add" any jobs at all.  Sounds horrible, right? Except that we lost 2,864,000 jobs in January 2013, 2,592,000 in January 2012, 2,865,000 in January 2011, and 2,870,000 in January 2010. And we even lost 2,752,000 jobs in January all the way back in the halcyon days of 1999.

Those "seasonal adjustments" again..

Now, job growth in the years just mentioned "adjusted" to 113,000 (now in 2014), +197,000 in 2013, + 360,000 in 2012, +70,000 in 2011, +18,000 in 2010, and +123,000 in 1999. These monthly jobs reports were never meant to be the do all and the be all as there is so much variability in them, so many adjustments, and they should only be regarded as trends over a period of time. And then there are the revisions, which have tended be positive revisions over the past 2-3 years. 

The Weather Factor 

I personally thought that the numbers would be worse, as the weather has just pounded the country and many, many people are just not doing anything, not buying anything, etc. I think we won't know for sure what the job market will look like in 2014 for a couple of months yet. Next week is the February reporting week, and that week is supposed to still be miserably cold.

Is ObamaCare hurting hiring?  

As far as ObamaCare, the CBO released a report earlier this week than mentioned that we might lose the equivalent of 2.4 million full-time jobs over the next ten years due to ObamaCares.  But the report (I did read the notorious Appendix C which discusses this) talks about people reducing their hours or not working either due to the tax effects of the subsidies or because they can retire or start a business and still get health care.  Two million jobs are NOT going to go away because employers are not hiring.  The jobs and hours lost will be on the side of labor, not the employer. No wonder the righties are jumping all over that report and want to scare people.  It wouldn't be good for corporations if employees had more choice.. and didn't have to work until they dropped just to keep their health insurance, right?


  1. some point you will need to stop blaming weather, seasonal adjustments, hurricanes, snow storms, climate change and just about anything you can find to justify this dismal Obama admin recovery! How many companies do you need to hear from about the impact Obamacare is affecting their employment decisions before you come to the realization that this program was initially flawed, was corruptly passed, and whose implementation reflects the incompetence of this administration?

    1. 9 million private sector jobs added despite the continued attempts of the Republicans to keep the recovery from happening... at the expense of the American people I might add... in an attempt to get Republicans back in control of the government. What's your definition of "dismal"?


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