AUG#: +130,000 jobs.

Unemployment up at 3.7%...AUG jobs under Trump HERE

Wednesday, October 26, 2011

Unemployment Rate? Unemployment Numbers?

Here's a quick list of the current unemployment rate and other unemployment numbers:

Unemployment rate as of September 2011:  9.1%
Alternate U-6 unemployment rate as of September 2011:  16.5%
Molly's alternate unemployment rate as of September 2011:  18.4%
All numbers as of  September 2011 unless otherwise indicated:

Number of people unemployed (officially) :  13,992,000

Number of people who "want a job" but haven't looked recently:   6,241,000   
Number of officially discouraged workers (a subset of those who "want a job"):  1,037,000 
Number of people working part-time who want full-time work:  9,270,000
Total number of people who want work or want full-time work:  29,503,000         

Number of people hired in August 2011 (last month for which these figures are available):  

Monday, October 24, 2011

Number of Jobs Lost in 2011 (Updated with October numbers)

(Please note:  This post dates back to November 2011.)

Number of Jobs Lost in 2011:


That's right.  NO jobs (net) have been lost in 2011 to date.  

I'll repeat that:  There has been no net loss of jobs in 2011 to date.  

In fact, we have 1,256,000 MORE jobs now, as of mid-October, than we did at the end of 2010.

That doesn't mean that people aren't still getting laid off or fired.  But it does mean that there have been more people getting hired throughout 2011 than there are people getting fired or people quitting.

From December 2010 until August 2011 (the latest month for which the Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings, Layoffs, and Turnover numbers are available),  13,333,000 people were laid off or discharged, 14,803,000 people have quit, 3,007,000 have left for other reasons (such as retiring), giving a total of 31,143,00 separations.  Since December 2010, 32,000,000, however, have been hired.  That means that there have been 857,000 MORE hires than separations through August of this year.   

But over 1,600,000 people are still getting laid off or fired every month!  

Sunday, October 16, 2011

Unemployment Rate When Bush Left Office: 7.7% or 7.2%?

What was the unemployment rate when Bush left office?  7.2% or 7.7% (or 7.8%)?  Read below....

What Was the Unemployment Rate When Obama Took Office (compared to now)? August 2015 update HERE

Debunking the Republicans:  I've recently come across several quotes in right-wing blogs and publications (such as the National Review) claiming that the unemployment rate was 7.2% when George W. Bush left the White House and Obama entered in January 2009.

I didn't understand where this figure came from, as I KNEW the unemployment rate was already at 7.7%* when Obama took the oath of office.  I carefully read through the monthly BLS employment situation reports, and I've looked at those January 2009 figures many times.  (If you go to the BLS link, look at Table A-1 for the January 2009 number.  As numbers are revised over a period of months, again after the first of the next year, up to five years after a particular month,  I always use the most recent revision available as that is the most accurate. In this case, I use the January 2009 figure that is posted a year later, in January 2010.)  
* Update 2/1/2012: Based on the latest BLS revisions, the unemployment rate was  already up to 7.8% when Obama took office.

Why is this important? 

Friday, October 14, 2011

Occupy Wall Street; Occupy Albuquerque; Occupy Chicago!

Occupy Together!  And, while we're at it, let's Get Money Out! 

I've been following the Occupy movements since September 18th, the second day of Occupy Wall Street.  I remember those early complaints about "Just a few dozen people!  Who cares?"  Within two weeks the movement began to spread with lightening speed, and now, only four weeks after it began, the  Occupation Movement is international with thousands of occupations everywhere, and the number of people who are involved is in the tens of thousands.

Wednesday, October 12, 2011

Alternate Unemployment Rate Increases to 18.4% in September 2011

Molly's Alternate Unemployment Rate Rises to 18.4% in September  2011 from 18.3% in August 2011.   (Update for October HERE.)

The increase is due primarily to another 5% increase in the number of people working part-time who want full-time work.  According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 430,000 more people are working part-time but want full-time work in September 2011 over August 2011.  This number had been decreasing in the early months of the year, but it has now risen substantially for two months.  

There are now 874,000 more involuntary part-time workers than there were in July.  The number of additional workers overall reported over the two months (since July) is 729,000.  It appears as though most of the new workers are working part-time.  Remember that the official unemployment number has stayed at 9.1% for the past three months.     

There has been a decrease of 4% in the number of people who "want to work" but have not actively looked for work in the past month.  In August, there were 6,493,000 in this group; now there are 6,241,000 in this group.  As the civilian labor force added 400,000 workers and the civilian population as a whole only increased by about 200,000 workers, it appears that at least 200,000 of the people who "want a job" actually entered the labor force in September; that is, they are either actively looking for work or they have actually started employment.

Molly's seasonally-adjusted alternate unemployment rate is 18.4% for September 2011. It is up one-tenth (.1%) of a percent from the 18.3% of August 2011.  Details below...

29,503,000, very close to 30 million people, are unemployed and want to work OR underemployed (working part-time and wanting full-time work) in September 2011. This is an increase of 217,000 people from the 29,286,000 who were unemployed and/or  underemployed in August..

The details of Molly's alternate unemployment rate continue after the jump! 

Private & Government Jobs Lost and Gained Under Obama: September Update

How many jobs (total, private, and government) have been lost or gained since Obama was inaugurated? 
Read below...

  • 4,303,000 jobs (in seasonally adjusted numbers) were LOST in TOTAL from the time Obama took office until the "trough" of the recession in early 2010.  That's a decrease of 3.2%. 
  • 2,088,000 jobs (in seasonally adjusted numbers) were CREATED from the "trough" of the recession until now, September 2011.  That's an increase of 2%.
  • In total, 2,215,000  jobs (in seasonally adjusted numbers) were LOST from the time Obama took office until now, September 2011.  That's a decrease of 1.7%. 
  • We have experienced 12 months WITHOUT job losses since September 2010.  We have ADDED 1,490,000 jobs during those 12 months.    

How many PRIVATE sector jobs have been lost or gained since Obama was elected?

Saturday, October 8, 2011

RIP, Steve Jobs. I Truly Wish You Could Have Lived Longer. .

... And maybe you could have been a social visionary as well as a technical visionary.

I've been following the situation of the Chinese iProduct workers for many months now, and I did have very mixed feelings as I read all of those accolades to Jobs.  I had previously written about the iPod sweatshops here:  Chinese iPod Suicide Sweatshops. 

For those who don't know, there was a scandal a year or two ago when the living and working conditions of the Chinese who were making iProducts (and other computerized electronic gadgets) was exposed.  It wasn't very pretty.  These people don't work for Apple, Dell, and all of the rest directly; they work for subcontractors.  

I added a comment about Steve Jobs when I read of his death:

A Million More Private Sector Jobs than When Obama Took Office!

How many private sector jobs have been gained or lost since Obama took office?

Here's the story of private sector jobs buried in the August 2011 jobs report:

In "raw or real" numbers unadjusted for seasonal variation, we now have 1,056,000 MORE private-sector jobs than when Obama stood in front of the American people in January 2009 and took the oath of office.  "Raw" numbers not adjusted for seasonal variation are more volatile, and are rarely used for comparison purposes, (I explain them HERE.) but they do represent the number of jobs that are actually out there in a given month:  Jobs that are held by our friends, family, and neighbors.

I pulled this data from the longer post, How many jobs has Obama created or lost?

Seasonally adjusted private-sector jobs numbers as of August 2011:
  • Private-sector jobs lost from the time Obama took office to the "trough" (bottom of recession): .....4,189,000
  • Private-sector jobs gained since "trough": .....2,398,000
*(This is the number often used by the Democrats as the number of private jobs created since the "trough" of the recession.  It is a correct number, but it is a seasonally-adjusted number.  In "real" unadjusted numbers, 5,207,000 private sector jobs have been created since the "trough" of the recession.)
Net LOSS in seasonally-adjusted private-sector jobs since Obama took office: ....1,791,000                      

"Raw:" numbers not seasonally adjusted: 
  • Private-sector jobs lost from the time Obama took office to the "trough": .....4,151,000 
  • Private-sector jobs gained since "trough": .....5,207,000                                  
Net GAIN in "raw" unadjusted private-sector jobs since Obama took office: .....1,056,000  

Friday, October 7, 2011

How Many New Jobs Have Been Created in 2011? (September update)

Latest (2013, 2012, 2011) jobs numbers & reports HERE!!

How Many Jobs Were Created in 2011? (Total)

How Many Jobs Have Been Created in 2013 to date?

The numbers below are for September 2011.  Please click link above for latest reports and numbers.

How many jobs were created in all of 2011, from December 2010 to September 2011?   1,074,000 
How many private-sector jobs have been created in 2011?   1,341,000
Have jobs been lost in 2011?  NO.
  • In seasonally adjusted numbers, 1,074,000 jobs have been created in 2011.  That's 119,333 jobs created per month in 2011.
  • In "raw" unadjusted numbers, 502,000 jobs have been created in 2011.  That's 56,000 jobs created per month in 2011.
  • In terms of total jobs and private-sector jobs, we have ONLY JOB GAINS in 2011.  
How many private-sector jobs were created in all of 2011, from December 2010 to September 2011?  Have private-sector jobs been created or  lost in 2011?

How Many Jobs Were Created Last Month (September 2011)?

The following numbers are as of September 2011.  For current jobs numbers, including jobs created or lost last month, please click the above link. 

103,000 new jobs were created in the month of September 2011.

The private sector generated 137,000 new jobs, but the government sector continued to shed jobs, 34,000 jobs, in September 2011.

398,000 more people reported themselves as working in September 2011. 

The unemployment rate stayed the same at 9.1% despite a growth in the number of jobs.  This is the third straight month that the unemployment rate has remained at 9.1%.  A continued unemployment rate of 9.1% does not represent any kind of robust jobs recovery. 

What was the Unemployment Rate When Obama Took Office? (September update)

What was the unemployment rate when Bush left office and Obama took office?  7.7%

How high did it go?  What is today's (September's) unemployment rate?   Keep reading!

How many people were looking for work when Obama was inaugurated, how many were working?  And how many people are looking for work and how many are employed now?   Keep reading!

The Unemployment Rate when Obama took office:

How Many Jobs Has Obama Created or Lost? (September update)

The following are September numbers.  Click one of the above links for current numbers.

How has Obama done on jobs?  2,088,000 gained since "trough" of recession.

How many jobs have been lost or gained during the Obama administration?  Have more new jobs been created or have more jobs been lost under Obama to date?  Still in negative jobs territory in net jobs gained/lost. 
Breakdown of private and government jobs lost and gained in 2011?  HERE!

All of these questions will be answered.  Keep reading!  

Summary of September jobs activity: 

Jobs increased 103,000 in total in September 2011. Private sector jobs continued to increase while government sector jobs continued to decrease. Private sector jobs increased by 137,000, while government jobs decreased by 34,000.  

Is it true that over 2 million private sector jobs have been created in the Obama administration as the Democrats claim?

(Summary of gross and net jobs activity since Obama was inaugurated is below the jump---  Keep reading!)

Thursday, October 6, 2011

Job Growth in the Carter Years: Better than in Clinton or Reagan Years!

Did Jimmy Carter really have a "Failed Presidency"?  Not in terms of job growth. 

Jimmy Carter, King of Jobs
The much-maligned Jimmy Carter had a higher percentage increase in the number of jobs per term  than any president over the last 38 years, going back to the Nixon/Ford term that started in 1973.

A few months back I published this article about job growth during the Presidency of Jimmy Carter , based on statistics provided by blogger Dave Manuel.  

Today I ran the numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics myself.  My numbers were very close to those of Manuel, and, though there were some minor variations, my conclusions were the same as his.  I added one column to my spreadsheet, however, and that column was the percentage of jobs lost or gained per Presidential term.  Seems only fair; the population and the number of jobs as a whole was much smaller back in the 70's than it was in the 90's or in the 2000's.  

In percentage of jobs lost or gained per Presidential term, Carter beats all recent Presidents, even Reagan in his second term, and even Clinton.    

Here are the numbers updated:

Cumulative Total Increase in Jobs for Pres.Nixon/Ford (R): +5,072,000 jobs
Average Jobs Per Month: +105,667
Percentage increase January 1973 to January 1977:  6.29%  
Total Number of Months: 48

Cumulative Total Increase for Pres. Jimmy Carter(D): +10,339,000 jobs
Average Jobs Per Month: +215,396
Percentage increase January 1977 to January 1981:    11.36%
Total Number of Months: 48 

Cumulative Total Increase for Pres. Ronald Reagan (R): +16,102,000 jobs
Average Jobs Per Month: +167,729
Percentage increase January 1981 to January 1985:   5.52% 
Percentage increase January 1985 to January 1989:   10.06%
Total Number of Months: 96

Cumulative Total Increase for Pres.George H.W.Bush (R): +2,592,000 jobs
Average Jobs Per Month: +54,000
Percentage increase January 1989 to January 1993:  2.36%
Total Number of Months: 48

Cumulative Total Increase for Pres. Bill  Clinton (D): +22,744,000 jobs
Average Jobs Per Month: +236,917
Percentage increase January 1993 to January 1997:   9.49%
Percentage increase January 1997 to January 2001:  8.48% 
Total Number of Months: 96

Cumulative Total Increase for Pres. George W. Bush (R): +1,094,000 jobs
Average Jobs Per Month: +11,396
Percentage decrease January 2001 to January 2005:    -0.01%
Percentage increase January 2005 to January 2009:      0.83%
Total Number of Months: 96

As you can see, the number of jobs increased 11.36% during Carter's single term.  Jobs only increased 10.06% during Reagan's second term, and only 9.49% and 8.48% during Clinton's two terms respectively.

Many people associate Jimmy Carter with stagflation, a pernicious combination of inflation and unemployment.  Unfortunately, Carter's presidency was marked by a period of rampant inflation and a year of modest unemployment, due to the oil problems in the Mideast.  Both the unemployment rate and the inflation rate were coming down, and fairly quickly, at the end of Carter's term.  However, it was too little too late, and that, along with the Iran hostage crisis, doomed Carter's presidency.  And Carter simply couldn't compete with Reagan's "charisma". 

Personally, my family and I flourished in the 70's.  Several close family members, as well as myself, got some of those brand new jobs created during the Carter years, and at significant increases in pay.  Despite inflation, I remember the late 70's as a robust, vibrant time.      

Update 3/27/2012:
Someone asked:  How did Jimmy Carter increase unemployment yet create jobs?
The unemployment numbers and the jobs numbers come from two different sources.  Jobs numbers and unemployment numbers CAN BOTH increase IF new jobs are being created, AND  the civilian labor force (the number of people who are working or looking for work) is increasing as well.  There will be new jobs, but not enough for all of the people flooding into the job market.  This happened when Carter was in office.  
The civilian labor force increased from about 97,000,000 when Carter took office to over 108,000,000 when Carter left office.  This was due to Baby Boomers entering the labor force in big numbers, and also women (many of whom had been home raising Baby Boomers) entering the labor force in big numbers.  In fact, more people entered the labor market during Carter's one term than have entered the labor market at any time since these numbers have been recorded.  The hearty job growth, 10,000,000 plus jobs, didn't quite keep up with the increase of almost 11,000,000 in the civilian labor force.     
But the unemployment rate went down then up during Carter's term.  It was 7.5% when he took office in January 1977, and it was 7.5% when he left office in January 1981.  The unemployment rate reached a low of 5.6% in May 1979, and it reached a high of 7.8% in July 1980.   

May Jobs Numbers Friday, June 1st. 
 Check back then!

Tuesday, October 4, 2011

How Many People are Looking for Jobs? Fall 2011

How Many Job Hunters Are Out There Now?  How Many Job Openings?

It's hard to come up with a specific number of the people LOOKING for jobs in the United States in a given month.  We have a good idea how many are unemployed but many people who are employed are also looking for work in any given month. 

 This article was written in October 2011.  The employment picture is much improved this year.  September 2012 updates and links can be found HERE.

However, we can count some of the groups looking for work and see if we can come up with a decent estimate. 
  • First, all of the "officially" unemployed must be actively looking for work to be considered "officially unemployed".  That's 13,967,000 so far.