AUG#: +130,000 jobs.

Unemployment up at 3.7%...AUG jobs under Trump HERE

Tuesday, October 13, 2015

Bernie Sanders: 51% of Black Youth Are Unemployed?

Bernie Sanders claims that African-American youth unemployment rate is 51% and that the unemployment rate among Hispanic youth is 31%.  

This is not true.  

Here are the current (September 2015) unemployment rates for young African-Americans:  

  • 16-19 year olds:  31.5%
  • 20-24 year olds:  16.2%
  • 16-24 year olds as a group:  19.7%

Here are the current (September 2015) unemployment rates for young Hispanics:

  • 16-19 year olds:  18.6%
  • 20-24 year olds:    8.2%
  • 16-24 year olds as a group:  10.4%
We also have to understand that, among 2.5 million black kids 16-19 years of age, only 126,000 or about 5% are actually looking for full-time work.   80% of black kids, 16 to 19 years of age, are in school.  Less than 1% of the 80% of kids who are in school are looking for full-time jobs.
Sources and more information will be added. 

Friday, October 2, 2015

How Many Jobs Has Obama Created or Lost? (Updated for September 2015)

This report has been updated HERE.
The following report is outdated.

How many NET jobs created or lost under Obama* as of September 2015? 
How many private sector jobs have been lost or added during Obama's presidency?

How many new jobs in the last 6 years since Obama was inaugurated?  How many Americans were working or employed when Obama took office... compared to now?

Continue below.....


November 2015 numbers were released Fri. Dec. 4.  Reports listed HERE.



How Many Jobs Were Created or Lost in September 2015?

How Many Jobs Were Created (Gained) by firms, companies, or government employers in the U.S. in September 2015?  How many jobs were LOST in September 2015?

  • 142,000 TOTAL payroll jobs were ADDED or CREATED in seasonally adjusted numbers.  This number was slightly less than what was projected.
  • 118,000 PRIVATE payroll sector jobs were ADDED or CREATED in seasonally adjusted numbers.
  • 24,000 GOVERNMENT (federal, state, and local) jobs were ADDED or CREATED in September. 
  • 236,000 FEWER people working.
  • 185,000 FEWER people employed full-time. 
  • 53,000 MORE people employed part-time.
  • 447,000 FEWER people employed part-time involuntarily.  (In other words, people who want full-time work but can only find part-time work.)  This number has generally been going down, even when the total number of people working part-time has increased.  This means that, of people working part-time this month, in SEPTEMBER, fewer were working part-time because they couldn't find a full-time job. In in the past year, the number of people employed part-time involuntarily (because they couldn't find a full-time job) has decreased by 1,022,000.
  • 114,000 FEWER people unemployed.
  • Unemployment rate stayed the same at 5.1%.  There actually was a decrease in the unemployment rate, from 5.11% down to 5.05%.
  • The alternate unemployment rate also decreased significantly, from 10.3% to 10.0%. 
  • 350,000 FEWER people in the civilian labor force (people either working or looking for work).  The drop in the size of the labor force appears to be due to people who STOPPED WORKING and left the labor force.  What happened to the labor force in SEPTEMBER?  Continue reading below...

In NET numbers, NO jobs were lost in SEPTEMBER 2015.  Even though the number of new jobs was not great, it was a positive number, meaning that we continue to create jobs in the United States. 

If there are jobs losses, that means that there are fewer new jobs, fewer people being hired, than people being fired or jobs being cut.  If there are jobs gains, that means that there are MORE new jobs, MORE people being hired, than people being fired or jobs being cut. 

Every month since September 2010, we have had more new jobs created than jobs lost.  This is the longest period of consecutive job growth since these records have been kept.

The size of the Labor Force declined in September.  Did people leave the labor force in despair, discouragement, and misery?

The labor force in the United States is huge and volatile.  Millions of people enter and leave the labor force every month in the United States; you can find more specifics HERE. 

But here's what happened to people in September:

  • In August, there were 157,065,000 people in the civilian labor force.
  • 2,144,000 who were not in the labor force in August ENTERED the labor force and started LOOKING FOR WORK in September.
  • 4,016,000 who were not in the labor force in August ENTERED the labor force and started WORKING in September. 
  • Meanwhile, 2,149,000 people who had been looking for work in August STOPPED LOOKING FOR WORK and left the labor force in September.  The number of "droputs" (people who were unemployed and stopped looking for work) continues to decline and is as low as it was in early to mid 2008, before the whole economy collapsed.   
  • And 4,515,000 people who had been employed in August STOPPED WORKING (and were not looking for work) in September.  A big chunk of these people are probably retiring Baby Boomers though we don't know that for sure.  But when someone stops working and doesn't bother to look for work, it usually means that they have voluntarily left their jobs; otherwise they would continue to look for work.  2015 is on track to have the largest number of employed people who stop working and leave the labor force EVER.  Again, think retirement! 
  • I'll repeat that:  So far in 2015, we have had more people on average per month who have stopped working and left the labor force than ever before.  69% of the people who left the labor force in September were previously EMPLOYED, not people who were looking for work and "gave up" in despair.  That is a percentage that started decreasing in 2008 through 2010, and has been increasing since 2010.  
  • For every unemployed person who "gave up" for some reason and stopped looking for work and left the labor force, there were TWO EMPLOYED people who left their jobs and left the labor force.
  • For every unemployed person who "gave up" for some reason and stopped looking for work, approximately THREE people (3.00) ENTERED the labor force and either started looking for work or started working.  2015 is recording the highest percentages of people who entered the labor force compared to unemployed people "dropping out" since early to mid 2008. 
  • These numbers, plus adjustments for relatively small numbers of people turning 16, people dying, people leaving or entering the country, resulted in a smaller labor force of 156,715,000 in September.  Though a smaller labor force than in August, this is the largest labor force that we have EVER had in any September of any year.  There are still about 870,000 more people in the labor force this September than a year ago.   

As usual, the numbers in any one month need to be taken with a grain of salt, as any movements in any one month are not necessarily meaningful trends.  However, trends that continue over a period of months are meaningful.

However, we have now had 67 consecutive months of private sector job creation, a record as long as such numbers have been kept.   And we have now had 60 consecutive months of total job creation, a record as long as such numbers have been kept. 

But how many jobs were LOST in September?

All jobs numbers reported monthly by Bureau of Labor Statistics are NET jobs numbers.  In other words, they represent the number of jobs gained (newly created jobs) after all job losses are subtracted.  If there are job gains, that means that there are more new jobs, more people being hired, than people being fired or jobs being cut. 

The more specific numbers of new hires and number of jobs cut are detailed in the monthly Job Openings, Layoffs, and Turnover Survey (JOLTS) which is published about six weeks after the monthly jobs reports.  This link "How Many People were fired in 2014?" provides a more in-depth explanation of how many people lose their jobs and how many people get new jobs every month.  For example, in 2014 over 55,000 people were fired or laid off on average each DAY... but an average of 160,000 people were HIRED each DAY in 2014.

To Summarize:  

In summary, there are more newly-created payroll jobs in September, but there were fewer new jobs than predicted.  There was a small decrease in the number of employed people, and the number of people working full-time decreased.  The number of people working part-time by choice increased; the number of people working part-time involuntarily decreased.  

The unemployment rate stayed the same as more formerly employed people left the labor force, probably reflecting people retiring.

The size of the labor force declined moderately; however, an analysis of the flows data seems to indicate that the drop in the size of the labor force may have been mostly due to people who retired in September. 

What Was the Unemployment rate when Obama took office and Bush left office? (Updated for September 2015)

This report has been updated for JUNE 2016 HERE

All June 2016 reports and details HERE.

This report is outdated.  For current reports, please click on one of the links above. 

What was the unemployment rate when Bush left office and Obama was inaugurated and took office? What was the unemployment rate when Obama came into office?
  •                                                  7.8% 
What was the unemployment rate after obama's first full month in office (February 2009)?  8.3%
What was the unemployment rate at peak?  10.0%

What is the unemployment rate now?  Today's unemployment rate (September 2015)?   

All Latest Jobs and Unemployment Reports HERE

How many people were looking for work when Obama was inaugurated; how many were working?  And how many people are looking for work and how many are employed now?

Please read below the graph.

The following chart shows the unemployment rate in three month intervals plus the last three months:

September 2015 Unemployment Rate, Jobs -- Mediocre.

The September Jobs Reports were released today, Friday, October 2.  The report is cloudy; not particularly great.

September Highlights:

  • 142,000 total new payroll jobs; 118,000 new private sector jobs; a 24,000 increase in the number of government jobs.)  These numbers are fairly low and less than the 203,000 that the pundits and prognosticators predicted, probably due to uncertainty in the markets and uncertainty over China.  This is a low number of private sector jobs, and a relatively high number of new government jobs.
    (Full-time/part-time breakdown will be available  HERE later today.)  Three out of the last seven months have shown job growth of less than 150,000.
  • The BLS decreased their July and their August estimates.  July was decreased from +245,000 to +223,000, and the August estimate was revised from +173,000 to +136,000. "With these revisions, employment gains in July and August combined were 59,000 less than previously reported. Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 167,000 per month... "Thus far in 2015, job growth has averaged 198,000 per month, compared with an average monthly gain of 260,000 in 2014."
  • The unemployment rate stayed the same at 5.1% as the number of unemployed decreased by 114,000. and as the civilian labor force also decreased, by 350,000.  We now have 7,915,000 officially unemployed, the lowest number of unemployed since early 2008, over 7 years ago.  As a result of fewer people in the labor force, the labor force participation rate declined to 62.4%.
  • The number of people not in the labor force (people in school, people retired, people home with children, etc.) climbed to 94,600,000, another new record.  This probably reflects many more  people retiring.. More on that later.
  • Alternate unemployment rate fell from 10.3% down to 10.0%.  That decline primarily reflected a decrease in the number of people who were working part-time "involuntarily" because they couldn't find full-time jobs.
  • As mentioned above, the labor force participation rate declined to 62.4% after being stable for 3 months.  The number of people in the labor force decreased slightly by a large 350,000.   Year over year, we have about 900,000 MORE people in the labor force.  Remember that there is NO ideal labor force size and much of the current decrease in the size of the labor force is due to Baby Boomers retiring in great numbers.
  • The overall number of people employed decreased by  236,000.  This may reflect people retiring as well as young people returning to school.  More on that later.
  • The number of people working full-time decreased by 185,000 last month; the number of people working part-time increased by about 53,000 last month.  Despite the decrease in full-time workers this month, year over year, we have about 2.6 million MORE people working full-time and 400,000 FEWER people working part-time.

September 2015 reports: (As usual, notation on the links will be changed to "UPDATED for September" when the updated reports become available.  Not all reports are updated every month.) 

More highlights and reports will continue to be posted here throughout the day and over the weekend.  Please check back!

Preview (written Thursday night, October 1, before the BLS jobs release):

The "pundits" are still expecting an additional 203,000 jobs when the numbers are announced tomorrow morning, Friday, October 2nd, but there is some uncertainty.  Here's a summary:

 Reuters conducts a survey of economists and reports the consensus:

U.S. employers likely added jobs at a brisk pace in September, a sign that the labor market is near full strength and could push the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at one of its two remaining meetings this year.

The Labor Department's monthly employment report, due on Friday at 8:30 a.m. EDT (1230 GMT), will almost certainly show the U.S. economy is growing enough to push the jobless rate lower in the coming months.

Economists surveyed by Reuters forecast U.S. payrolls outside of farming rose by 203,000 last month, bouncing back from softer job growth in August despite worries a China-led global economic slowdown is sapping America's strength. 
"The U.S. economy is alive and kicking," said Phil Lachowycz, an economist at Fathom Consulting in London.
2. ADP: The private payroller ADP's report, which usually precedes the BLS report by two days, estimated that 200,000 more private-sector jobs were created in September 2015.  ADP estimated increases in all sectors but manufacturing.  Manufacturing was estimated to have lost 15,000 jobs in September.Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “The U.S. job machine continues to produce jobs at a strong and consistent pace. Despite job losses in the energy and manufacturing industries, the economy is creating close to 200,000 jobs per month. At this pace full employment is fast approaching.”

3.  The Consumer Sentiment index compiled by the University of Michigan  showed a decline from 91.9 in August to 87.2 in September.  However, the Sentiment Index is still 3% than it was a year ago, in September 2014.  
The decline in optimism continued to narrow in late September as consumers increasingly concluded that the stock market declines had more to do with international conditions than the domestic economy. While the September Sentiment Index was at the lowest level in eleven months, it was still higher than in any prior month since May 2007. To be sure, a raft of recent events have been viewed as negative economic indicators by consumers, including falling commodity prices, weakened Chinese and other economies as well as continued stresses on European countries. Although most believe the domestic economy is still largely insulated, they have lowered the pace of job and wage growth that they now anticipate. The true significance of these findings is not the diminished economic prospects, but that consumers now believe that global economic trends can directly influence their own job and wage prospects as well as indirectly via financial markets. While now small, the influence of the global economy is certain to rise in the future and prompt widespread adjustments by consumers and policy makers.
 4.  The search engine's blog  was very gloomy, gloomier than it has been in months.  I will swear, however, that Toby Dayton's writing on the Linkup Blog is among the best out there.  I'd rather read Dayton than Reuters, even when Toby is being very pessimistic.  First Toby quotes something he wrote in early October two years ago:     
Like Walter White’s (of Breaking Bad fame) descent into apocalyptic madness, it is hard to imagine that things could get any more lunatic, dysfunctional, or destructive in Washington these days. The crazies in the House, under the leadership of Ted Cruz, aka Heisenberg, have taken over the asylum and are hell-bent on dragging the country along on their suicidal death wish. And the worst part of the insanity that characterizes the Republican party these days is the fact that their utterly anti-democratic, anarchic obstinance could not only destroy an already fragile economic recovery in the U.S., but also stop dead in its tracks a nascent global recovery.
Then he brings the situation into the present:  
Given the events of the past few months, and particularly in the past few weeks, it turns out that things in the asylum have, in fact, gotten much, much worse. Ted Cruz is now running for President, the crazies have eliminated John Boehner (the least demented among the deranged), and once again, the inmates in the psych ward are threatening to shut down the government despite the fact that 60% of Americans insist that any budget deal must include funding for Planned Parenthood.
He concludes:
Based on steep declines in new and total job openings in LinkUp’s job search engine in August, we are forecasting that the U.S. economy added a net gain of only 75,000 jobs in September. - 
That would be a big problem.  Let's hope that Dayton is wrong.   

 5.  Finally, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits AND the number of Americans filing for continuing benefits continue to be very low, even though the number went up by 10,000 for the week ending September 26th.   The unadjusted number of new claims, about 215,000, is the lowest number of unadjusted new claims in September since back in September 1999.  So despite some labor market concerns due to International craziness, few people are getting laid off.  You can see more here at the Department of Labor's site.