How Many Jobs Created or Lost in October 2013?

204,000 new jobs were CREATED or ADDED last month, in the month of October 2013.  

The private sector generated (added) 212,000 new jobs and the government sector lost (decreased) 8,000 jobs in October 2013.

735,000 FEWER people reported themselves as working in October 2013, however, this number was affected by the recent government shutdown. The survey on which this number is based asks people for their employment status as of the second week of October.  The government was still shutdown during that week.         

All Latest Jobs Reports (2013 and earlier) indexed HERE!

         

The unemployment rate increased to 7.3% in October 2013, probably due to the effect of the government shutdown, as 735,000 fewer people reported themselves as working in October.  Over 700,000 people left the labor force in October; however, this could also be the result of the government shutdown, as federal workers were not employed but not looking for work.  We won't know until next month's numbers.  (The size of the labor force is volatile.  Read more HERE.)    The unemployment rate has been below 8.0% for 14 months in a row now, starting in Summer 2012.  

ADP: Jobs Up 209,000 for March 2012

What do those ADP jobs numbers mean?

The private payroll processing firm, ADP, released its monthly jobs numbers for March 2012, this morning, showing a solid increase of 209,000 jobs from February to March.

ADP Numbers for April 2012: Myth or Meaningful?

How many private sector jobs are there?

They estimate that there are 110,481,000 private-sector jobs in the U.S. during the payroll processing week which includes March 12, 2012.  This is the same timeframe that the government BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) uses to determine its monthly jobs (establishment) numbers.  As mentioned above, this shows an increase of 209,000 jobs from February to March.

The ADP number correlates to the number of non-farm private sector jobs that is put out by the BLS.  It usually appears two days before the BLS reports, and, while not exactly the same as the BLS numbers, it is usually a good harbinger of what those BLS monthly jobs will show.  The BLS private sector job estimates have been running about 400,000 to 500,000 more than the ADP job estimates, but the increase over the past year to two years has been about the same.  The ADP report shows an increase of 905,000 between October 2011 and February 2012, while the BLS shows an increase of 930,000 jobs between October 2011 and February 2012.

The ADP report, completely private and separate from those government numbers, provides a good reply to people who are convinced that the government is somehow "cooking the books" when jobs/employment numbers show improvement.  Unless those people are going to claim that ADP, the federal BLS, and the states, even the Republican states, (from where many employment/unemployment numbers originate), are somehow all in cahoots to fool the American public. .... which some will say is happening... it doesn't seem as though any book cooking can be happening.

ADP numbers compared and contrasted with the BLS numbers

So here's the ADP private non-farm jobs numbers contrasted with the BLS private non-farm jobs numbers over the past several months:

• Nov 2011: ADP-  109,593,000  (+226,000)   BLS-  109,959,000 (+178,000) 
• Dec 2011: ADP-  109,860,000  (+267,000)   BLS-  110,193,000 (+234,000)
• Jan  2012: ADP-  110,042,000  (+182,000)   BLS-  110,478,000 (+285,000)
• Feb 2012: ADP-  110,272,000  (+230,000)   BLS-  110,711,000 (+233,000)
• Mar 2012: ADP-   110,481,000  (+209,000)  BLS-  To be released Friday               

Other observations from the ADP report:

• Most of the job growth has occurred in the small (1-49 employees) service providing job sector.
• ADP estimates an additional 23,000 jobs in manufacturing.

Unemployment Rate When Bush Left Office: 7.7% or 7.2%?

What was the unemployment rate when Bush left office?  7.2% or 7.7% (or 7.8%)?  Read below....

What Was the Unemployment Rate When Obama Took Office (compared to now)? August 2015 update HERE

All Latest Jobs Reports and Numbers (2011 through 2015 to date)

Jobs Lost/Created Year by Year Since 1999 

How Many Jobs Were Lost Before Obama Took Office?  Losing 700,000 to 800,000 Jobs a Month in late 2008? 

The Unemployment Rate: What does it measure? Where did it come from?

Debunking the Republicans:  I've recently come across several quotes in right-wing blogs and publications (such as the National Review) claiming that the unemployment rate was 7.2% when George W. Bush left the White House and Obama entered in January 2009.

I didn't understand where this figure came from, as I KNEW the unemployment rate was already at 7.7%* when Obama took the oath of office.  I carefully read through the monthly BLS employment situation reports, and I've looked at those January 2009 figures many times.  (If you go to the BLS link, look at Table A-1 for the January 2009 number.  As numbers are revised over a period of months, again after the first of the next year, up to five years after a particular month,  I always use the most recent revision available as that is the most accurate. In this case, I use the January 2009 figure that is posted a year later, in January 2010.)  

* Update 2/1/2012: Based on the latest BLS revisions, the unemployment rate was  already up to 7.8% when Obama took office.

Why is this important?