DEC Fri, Jan 6: +156,000 jobs. Unemployment rate up slightly to 4.7%...DEC details here!.. Jobs since Obama took office?... Unemp. rate under Obama?

Tuesday, June 28, 2011

Hey, Obama! Jobs are the Biggest Problem!

Obama, Stop Listening to the GOP!  Don't let them bulldoze you about the debt!  

We need jobs!  More jobs equals more revenue!  

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Note:  Jobs and employment data for June will be available from the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) on Friday, July 8th.  Check back for analysis of the June numbers then!
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The following was just emailed to me by a friend.  Apparently it is going to be published in the Dubuque Telegraph Herald out of Dubuque, Iowa.  The author lives in nearby Galena, Illinois.  As Obama was in the "neighborhood" in Davenport, Iowa, this morning, I wonder if he happened to read through any local papers and saw it.

Jobs, not Deficit, Nation's Top Problem  (emphasis mine):    
"What's it going to take to get President Obama and his administration to counter the GOP fiction about the nation's deficit being its biggest problem?  It can wait. 

Number of Jobs Created by Obama: 198,000 Plus


This post contains numbers as of May 2011.

All current jobs numbers and reports can be found HERE!


We've entered positive jobs territory.
 


In "raw" unadjusted numbers; employers are reporting more jobs in May 2011 than they were reporting in January 2009, when Obama was inaugurated.  Read below.

How many jobs have been created by Obama since the "trough" of the recession in late 2009/early 2010 to now, May 2011?
  • In seasonally adjusted numbers, 1,797,000 jobs have been created since the "trough" of the recession in January 2010.
  • In raw unadjusted numbers, 4,444,000 jobs have been created since the "trough" of the recession in January 2010.

How many jobs have been created by Obama since he took office in January 2009?
  • In numbers adjusted for seasonal variations, we are still in negative territory since Obama took office.  In seasonally adjusted numbers, there are 2,512,000 fewer jobs than when Obama was inaugurated in January 2009.
  • But:  In "raw" unadjusted numbers, in terms of the real number of jobs offered by employers to real people, there are now more jobs than when Obama took office in January 2009.  There are now 198,000 more jobs in "raw" unadjusted numbers than when Obama took office in January 2009.
  • (Also, in real unadjusted numbers, there are 144,000 more private-sector jobs than when Obama was inaugurated.)
All of my jobs and employment numbers are taken from the BLS Employment Situation Archived and Current News Releases. . 

Sunday, June 26, 2011

When Teachers and NPR crashed the stock market?

Who crashed the stock market?


Remember when teachers, public employees, Planned Parenthood­, NPR and PBS crashed the stock market, wiped out half of our 401Ks, took trillions in taxpayer funded bail outs, spilled oil in the Gulf of Mexico, gave themselves billions in bonuses, and paid no taxes?

Yeah, I don't remember any of that either.



­Pass it on!

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More info:
Oakland Bay Bridge being built by Chinese workers paid $12 a day?
The Wall Street Journal misleads! We work just as long!
How many new jobs has Obama lost or created?         
Did McDonald's create half of the new jobs in May?
Spring Job Growth: Not That Bad?
My Articles about Employment and Unemployment
         How many jobs were created under Obama?
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Oakland Bay Bridge: Chinese Paid $12 a Day

The Chinese are Building an American Bridge!

The Oakland Bay Bridge was seriously damaged during the 1989 earthquake, and it is now being reconstructed... Much of the construction of the Oakland Bay Bridge is happening in China.  By Chinese workers paid $12 a day.  

(Photo Ryan Pyle for the New York Times)

Please read the whole article, and I hope you find it as disturbing as I do.


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More about Chinese making iPods in slave labor conditions:
Chinese suicide & iPod sweatshops  
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This, to me, was one of the worst parts of the article:

Saturday, June 25, 2011

Wall Street Journal Misleads! We're Working Just as Long!

Are We Really Working Less?


The headline of the article at the Wall Street Journal reads:  


"Americans Working Less; Watching More T.V."


And there's a picture of Jane Jetson lounging with her robot maid while a robot vacuum cleaner vacuums. 


Except that the article, the title, the picture, the first few paragraphs, are completely misleading!

What was the Unemployment Rate When Obama Took Office?


February 2013 jobs numbers will be released late this month, on Friday, March 8th.  Please check back then for all reports and updates.  



          



What was the unemployment rate when Obama took office?  7.7%  
How high did it go?  10.1%   (Details below)

The Unemployment Rate when Obama took office:
  • For the record, when Obama took office in January 2009, the "official" unemployment rate in seasonally adjusted numbers was 7.7%, with 11,919,000 people reported themselves as unemployed and actively looking. 
  •  In "raw" numbers not adjusted for seasonal variance, the unemployment rate was 8.5% with 13,009,000 people reporting themselves as unemployed and actively looking for work.
The Unemployment Rate at its Peak: 
  • At the "trough" (bottom in terms of jobs) of the recession in late 2009/early 2010, the "official" unemployment rate in seasonally adjusted numbers was 10.1% in October 2009 with 15,612,000 people (out of a labor force of 153,854,000) reporting themselves as unemployed.  
  • In "raw" numbers not adjusted for seasonal variance, the unemployment rate reached a peak of 10.6% in January 2010 with 16,147,000 (out of a labor force of 152,957,000) reporting themselves as unemployed and actively looking for work.
The Unemployment Rate Now:
  • Now, in May 2011, the "official" unemployment rate in seasonally adjusted numbers is 9.1% with 13,914,000 (out of a labor force of 153,693,000) unemployed. 
  • In unadjusted "raw" numbers, however, the unemployment rate is 8.7%.
To Summarize:
  • Using seasonally adjusted numbers, the unemployment rate was 7.7% (and rising quickly) when Obama took office, and it is 9.1% today.  
  • Using nonseasonally adjusted numbers, the unemployment rate was already 8.5% when Obama took office, and it is down to 8.7% today. 
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More info:
Did McDonald's create half of the new jobs in May?
Spring Job Growth: Not That Bad?
My Articles about Employment and Unemployment
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Wednesday, June 22, 2011

Creating jobs: How Demand Creates New Jobs

Who is creating jobs?  How can more jobs be created?  Who are the job creators?

Photo found on Facebook.  I'll be happy to credit it if I can find the original.

Demand drives the economy.  Demand creates jobs.  

A very basic primer:  

You may have heard the adage "You've never received a job from a poor person."   This is an attempt to get people like you and me to support cutting  taxes on the rich, to support lowering corporate taxes, etc.  This is the whole premise of "supply side" economics:  Make the country more "business-friendly" through lower taxes, fewer regulations, less concern for the environment, less union influence, less concern for the condition of workers, etc., and business will thrive.  And, as business thrives, they will hire more people and life will be much more grand for all of us.  So "they" say. 

Supply-side "trickle down" economics

At least that is what certain politicians and business people want us to believe.  That's the essence of "supply-side" "trickle down" economics that we've been hearing about for decades now.


The Role of Demand

But supply-side ignores a very important fact: 

Sunday, June 19, 2011

Obama and Jobs

Check out Obama's record on jobs lost and created here.


How many jobs were created under Obama?  Check here.

How Many Jobs Were Created under Obama? July 2011


The following statistics are those for July 2011.  For current numbers, please see either of the links above.


How many jobs have been created by Obama since the "trough" of the recession in late 2009/early 2010 to now, July 2011?
  • In seasonally adjusted numbers, 1,944,000 jobs have been created since the "trough" of the recession in January 2010.
  • In raw unadjusted numbers, 3,611,000 jobs have been created since the "trough" of the recession in January 2010.
How many more people reported they were working since the "trough" of the recession in late 2009/early 2010 to now, July 2011?  
  • In seasonally adjusted numbers, 1,819,000 more people are working since the trough of the recession in December 2009.
  • In "raw" unadjusted numbers, 3,219,000 more people are working since the trough of the recession in January 2010.

How Many New Jobs Has Obama Lost or Created? (May 2011)

This report has been updated HERE.
The following report is outdated.

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November 2015 numbers were released Fri. Dec. 4.  Details HERE.
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All other jobs reports (2011 through 2015) indexed HERE

How Many Jobs (Net) created in 2015 to date?  HERE


How Many Jobs Have Been Created since 2010?  Latest numbers indexed HERE.

How Many Jobs Were Lost in total in 2008?

How Many Jobs Have Been Lost Since 2008?  How Many Jobs Created Since 2008?




The following are May 2011 numbers.  Please select any of the links above for more recent  numbers.  
 

How has Obama done on jobs?  How many jobs have been lost or gained during the Obama administration?


Have 2.1 million private sector jobs have been created during the Obama administration?

Yes. In seasonally adjusted numbers, as of May 2011, 2,123,000 private-sector jobs have been created since the bottom of the recession.  In seasonally adjusted numbers, as of May 2011, 1,797,000 total jobs have been created since the bottom of the recession.   

Here's a summary of data from the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics).  All numbers lost to the "trough" of the recession reflect jobs lost between the time Obama took office and the lowest point of the recession:

Seasonally adjusted:
  • All jobs lost from the time Obama took office to "trough" (bottom of recession):                                                          4,309,000
  • All jobs gained since "trough":                               1,797,000
Net loss in seasonally-adjusted jobs:                      2,512,000                        

"Raw:" numbers not seasonally adjusted:
  • Jobs lost from the time Obama took office to "trough": 4,246,000      
  • Jobs gained since "trough":                                      4,444,000
Net gain in "raw" unadjusted job numbers:                          198,000

How many private sector jobs have been gained or lost since Obama took office?

Seasonally adjusted:
  • Private-sector jobs lost to "trough" (bottom of recession):      4,168,000
  • Private-sector jobs gained since "trough":                            2,123,000* 
         
*(This is the number often used by Obama and the Democrats as the number of private jobs created.  It is a correct number, but it is a seasonally-adjusted number.  In "real" unadjusted numbers, 4,270,000 private sector jobs have been created.) 

Net loss in seasonally-adjusted private-sector jobs :           2,045,000                          

"Raw:" numbers not seasonally adjusted: 
  • Private-sector jobs lost to "trough":                      4,131,000 
  • Private-sector jobs gained since "trough":             4,270,000                                    
Net gain in "raw" unadjusted private-sector jobs:                141,000

How many workers have been laid off or hired during the Obama administration?

Seasonally adjusted:  
  • Fewer people working to "trough" :                        4,261,000 
  • More people working since "trough":                       1,819,000         
Net loss in seasonally-adjusted number of people working:   2,442,000                          

"Raw:" numbers not seasonally adjusted:
  • Fewer workers to "trough":                        3,627,000
  • More workers since "trough":                      3,219,000
Net loss in "raw" unadjusted number of people working:         408,000     
   
Can you summarize this?
  • Obama was inaugurated in January 2009 when the economy was in free fall and we were losing about 700,000 jobs a month.  A total of 4,400,000 jobs were lost before Obama took office.  
  • The employment situation did not bottom out until late 2009 or early 2010.  An additional 4,300,000 jobs were lost between the time that Obama took office and the bottom ("trough") of the recession.  
  • That's a total job loss of 8,700,000 jobs over approximately 2 years.
  • Since the economy started to add jobs under Obama, 1,800,000 jobs have been added using seasonally-adjusted numbers (See below). 
  • Since the economy started to add jobs under Obama, 4,444,000 jobs have been added using "real" unadjusted numbers.  We have now added more jobs in "real" numbers than were lost during the first year of Obama's term.       
  • We still need many, many more jobs to overcome the loss of jobs that started in 2008 and to make up for the increase in population since 2008. 
  • We're doing better in terms of making up for lost jobs than Reagan did at this point in his presidency and than FDR did at this time during his presidency. 

How did you come up with these numbers?  Why isn't there one number instead of all of these?     

Counting jobs or workers is very tricky. Continue reading for more detailed explanations of all of this.

Friday, June 17, 2011

McDonald's Created Half of Jobs in May?

Did McDonald's really create half of all of the new jobs in May?


Apparently this has been passed around and posted all over the Internet.


It's not true, and I debunk this rumor and explain it here:


McDonald's did not create half of all new jobs in May because there were 680,000 new jobs in May, not 54,000.



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Just published:
 What was the Unemployment Rate When Obama Took Office? (Update for August) 
How Many Jobs Has Obama Created or Lost? (August update).
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Saturday, June 11, 2011

How Many People are Looking for Jobs? May-June 2011




We don't completely know how many people are looking for jobs altogether in May 2011.


(If you want to know how many people are employed right now... How many people have jobs.. check down at the bottom of this article.)


We know how many people are officially unemployed, and to be counted as officially unemployed, a person needs to be actively looking for work, but we don't know how many people who are working elsewhere want to switch jobs and are looking for work elsewhere.  That's why we can't really answer the question:  How many are looking for work?  
Update 1/7/2012:  How Many People Are Looking for Jobs in 2011?
Here are the numbers of people who are unemployed:


  • 13,914,000 officially unemployed and actively looking for work in May 2011 (vs. 13,747,000 in April).
  • 8,548,000 working part-time but wanting full-time work (vs. 8,600,000 in April).
  • 6,227,000 who "want work" but haven't actively looked in the past 4 weeks (vs. 6,539,000 in April).


That adds up to 28,689,000 who are the "alternate" number of unemployed (vs. 28,886,000 in April) .


When do we know what the employment situation looks like for June?


Weekly unemployment insurance claims, which are published every Thursday morning, often given an idea of what is happening with unemployment, but no "official" numbers.  For "official" unemployment and jobs numbers, we have to wait until the first Friday morning of the next month.  Both Gallup and ADP, a payroll processor, release estimates before the official Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers.


Why did the official number of unemployed go up while the total alternate number of unemployed went down?


Wednesday, June 8, 2011

Did McDonald's Create Half of the New Jobs in May?

I've heard that the 54,000 new jobs are mostly the McDonald jobs that we heard about last month.  Is that true?


No!


There were actually 680,000 new jobs created in May 2011 if you look at the "raw" numbers not adjusted for seasonal variation.  (Explanation below.) 



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Just published:
 What was the Unemployment Rate When Obama Took Office? (Update for August) 
How Many Jobs Has Obama Created or Lost? (August update).
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Now, McDonald's did have a hiring day in April and hired 62,000 people from the million applications that they received. 


It is unknown exactly how many of the 62,000 were onboard and officially employed by McDonald's during the week of May 12th, the week used for monthly employment reporting.  (As the hiring day was after the week of April 12th, there was absolutely no effect on the April employment numbers.


But even if all 62,000 were hired and onboard during the week of May 12th, they were still less than 10% of the 680,000 total new jobs created in May 2011.  So we're back to the "seasonally adjusted stuff".


What's this "Seasonally adjusted effect"?

Tuesday, June 7, 2011

Spring Job Growth: Not that Bad?

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Updated links on jobs numbers for June 2011:

How many jobs Were Created or Gained Under Obama? (updated for June 2011)
How many jobs has Obama created or lost?  (updated for June 2011) 
Number of jobs created by Obama updated for June 2011
Full analysis on June's job report will be available later today, July 8th. 
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Job growth approaching that in 2005 and 2006!


Job growth this spring (February through May) in numbers is on a par with job growth in spring of 2005 or 2006, which were the years at the height of job growth under Bush.

The US added 2,729,000 jobs (unadjuste­d) and 474,000 jobs (adjusted) in Spring 2005.



The US added 2,742,000 jobs (unadjuste­d) and 496,000 jobs (adjusted) in Spring 2006.

We added 2,759,000 jobs (unadjuste­d) and 480,000 jobs (adjusted) this spring, between February and now. 



Of course, Bush job growth with the tax breaks for the rich was nowhere close to Clinton job growth with reasonable tax brackets.


Two things to throw a little bit of cold water on these numbers, however:


We're coming up from much, much lower job numbers.  We're still off the numbers from 2006 by 4 to 5 million jobs.  And our civilian non-institutional population is larger by about 10,000,000 people.  We clearly have a ways to go, but we are now producing jobs at about the same number that we were producing them in expansion years of Spring of 2005 and 2006.  


And that's not bad.     

How Many Jobs Were Created in 2011? (Link to 2013 included)

How many jobs were created in all of 2011, from December 2010 to May 2011?  Have jobs been lost in 2011?
  • In seasonally adjusted numbers, 783,000 jobs have been created in 2011.  That's 156,600 a month.
  • In "raw" unadjusted numbers, 703,000 jobs have been created in 2011.  That's 140,600 a month.
In 2011, we have had only gains in jobs and numbers of workers.  To repeat, no jobs or workers have been lost in 2011.
How many jobs were created over the past three months from February 2011 to May 2011?

Friday, June 3, 2011

Alternate Unemployment Rate Declines to 17.9% - May 2011

Latest alternate unemployment rate for September: 18.4% CLICK HERE!


 Alternate Unemployment Rate is 17.91% - May 2011


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August update:
 What was the Unemployment Rate When Obama Took Office? (Update for August) 
How Many Jobs Has Obama Created or Lost? (August update).
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The seasonally-adjusted alternate unemployment rate is 17.9% for May 2011.  This is two-tenths (.2%) of a percent lower than it was in April 2011.   
In seasonally-adjusted numbers, 17.9% of the American labor force were either "officially" unemployed, working part-time but wanting full-time work, or "wanted work" but hadn't looked for work in the past four weeks for a reason such as being discouraged or convinced there was no work for them.  (I do not count people as unemployed unless they say that they "want work" according to the BLS Current Population Survey.  How can someone consider themselves unemployed in terms of wanting or needing work if they don't say they want to work?)      

See below for the complete explanation.

Unemployment May: More People Looking for Work


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Updated links on jobs numbers for June 2011:

How many jobs Were Created or Gained Under Obama? (updated for June 2011)
How many jobs has Obama created or lost?  (updated for June 2011) 
Number of jobs created by Obama updated for June 2011
Full analysis on June's job report will be available later today, July 8th. 
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How many more people are working in May 2011?



  • 100,000 more people are working in May in seasonally-adjusted numbers.  
  • 370,000 more people are working in May in real unadjusted numbers.


  • Employers report 54,000 more jobs in May in seasonally-adjusted numbers.
  • But employers reported 680,000 more jobs in May in real unadjusted numbers!



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Read Here:
How Many People are Looking for Jobs?
Molly's articles about employment and unemployment

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So...  why are the headlines this morning screaming:  "Stocks Sink as Jobless Rate Rises" and "Jobs Disaster!"