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Friday, November 6, 2015

October 2015 Unemployment Rate, Jobs - Unexpected!

The October Jobs Reports were released Friday morning, November 6.  These are the best jobs numbers in several months, meaning that the Federal Reserve is more likely to raise interest rates at its next meeting in December.  

Not only was the whole report very decent, but the whole economy created
8,023,000 jobs over the past three years, from October 2012 until now.  That's the first time since late 2000 that the economy has created over 8 million jobs in three years.  Over those same three years, 6.4 million MORE people are working full-time.  (No, the definition of "full-time employment" according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics has not changed since Obama took office.)

October Highlights:

  • 271,000 total new payroll jobs; 268,000 new private sector jobs; a small 3,000 increase in the number of government jobs.)  These numbers are much higher than the 180,000 jobs that the pundits and prognosticators predicted.  Full-time/part-time breakdown will be available HERE later today.)  This is a welcome increase after the last two months of anemic job growth, and the numbers mark a return to the job growth that was typical earlier this summer.
  • The BLS changed their August and September estimates slightly.  August numbers were increased by 17,000 from +136,000 to +153,000, and the September estimate was decreased slightly from +142,000 to +137,000.  From the BLS:  "With these revisions, employment gains in August and September combined were 12,000 more than previously reported. Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 187,000 per month. "
  • The unemployment rate declined slightly to 5.0% as the number of unemployed decreased slightly by 7,000 and as the number of people employed increased by 320,000, and as 313,000 people entered the labor force.  
  • We now have 7,908,000 officially unemployed, the lowest number of unemployed since April 2008, 7 1/2 years ago.  As a result of more people in the labor force, the labor force participation rate increased very slightly from 62.36% to 62.43%.
  • The number of people not in the labor force (people in school, people retired, people home with children, etc.) decreased slightly to 94,513,000.  
  • Alternate unemployment rate fell from 10.0% to 9.8%.  That decline primarily reflected a decrease in the number of people who were working part-time "involuntarily" because they couldn't find full-time jobs. (That number has declined by 1,200,000 over the past two years.) 
  • As mentioned above, the labor force participation rate is stable at 62.4%.  The labor force participation rate has been under 62.5% for the past two months after being at 62.5% for the three prior months.  Year over year, we have about 800,000 MORE people in the labor force.  
  • Remember that there is NO ideal labor force size and most of the ongoing decrease in the labor force participation rate is due to Baby Boomers retiring in great numbers.
  • The overall number of people employed increased by  320,000.  
  • The number of people working full-time increased by 185,000 last month; the number of people working part-time increased by about 214,000 last month. However, the number of people working part-time INVOLUNTARILY declined by 269,000 and the number of people working part-time VOLUNTARILY increased by 483,000.  
  • There are 2.3 million MORE people working full-time than there were a year ago, and 507,000 FEWER people working part-time than a year ago.
  • Altogether, 2,062,000 payroll jobs have been ADDED in 2015 year to date.  That's an additional 206,000 jobs per month in 2015.
  • 1,976,000 private payroll sector jobs have been ADDED in 2015 year to date.  That's an additional 197,600 private jobs per month in 2015.
October 2015 reports: (As usual, notation on the links will be changed to "UPDATED for October" when the updated reports become available.  Not all reports are updated every month.)

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