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Monday, October 22, 2012

How Many Jobs Were Created or Lost in September 2012?

The following numbers are for September 2012.  For more recent numbers or for numbers for ALL of 2012, please click one of the above links. 

new jobs were created in the month of September 2012 BUT job totals from both July and August 2012 were increased, and benchmarks were announced that increased the total number of jobs by 386,000.

NO jobs were lost (net) in the month of September 2012.

The private sector generated 104,000 MORE jobs, but this month the  government sector ADDED 10,000 jobs in September 2012.

873,000 MORE people reported themselves as working in September 2012.

The following chart shows cumulative private job loss and growth from January 2008 until September 2012:

The unemployment rate decreased by three tenths of one percent to 7.8%.   The decrease in the unemployment rate was primarily due to:

  • An increase of 873,000 people who reported themselves as employed in September vs. August.  Read about that HERE and HERE.   
  • An decrease of 368,000 people considered unemployed from August to September.
  • The numbers of people who were laid off from their jobs (vs. who quit or entered/reentered the labor force) declined by almost 400,000 in September

The following chart compares number of private jobs and/or workers as reported by three different measures.  Details here.

How many more or fewer people are WORKING this month?  How many more or fewer JOBS are there this month?  Were jobs lost or gained?

How many more jobs are there in September than there were in August 2012?

Let's look:
  • 114,000 MORE jobs in seasonally-adjusted numbers were reported by employers now than in August 2012. 
  • 574,000 MORE jobs in "raw" actual numbers not adjusted for seasonal variations were reported by employers now vs. August 2012. 
  • As mentioned above, both July and August numbers were adjusted up, meaning that we had 200,000 more jobs in September than we thought we had in August.  Also, 386,000 jobs were added by benchmark revisions for the period of time from March 2011 to March 2012.

How many more private sector jobs are there in September 2012 than there were in August 2012?
  • 104,000 MORE private-sector jobs in seasonally-adjusted numbers were reported by employers now in September vs.  August.
  • 377,000 FEWER private-sector jobs in "raw" actual numbers not adjusted for seasonal variation were reported by employers now than in August.  (In other words, private employers are saying that they have actually employed 377,000  fewer people in September than in August.  Private jobs always decline in September as seasonal jobs are ended.)   

How many more (or fewer) government jobs are there in August 2012 than in July 2012?
  • 10,000 MORE government jobs in seasonally-adjusted numbers were reported by government employers at all levels (federal, state, and local) now than in August 2012.
  • 951,000 MORE government jobs in "raw" actual numbers not adjusted for seasonal variations were reported by government employers at all levels now in September than in August 2012.  (This number typically goes up in September as teachers and school personnel return and start working.  That's why there is such a huge difference between the adjusted and unadjusted numbers.)     

How many more people are reporting themselves as working in September 2012 than in August 2012?
  • 873,000 MORE people reported themselves as working in seasonally-adjusted numbers in September than were working in August. (This is the largest increase of workers in August EVER.)
  • 775,000  MORE people reported themselves as working in "raw" actual numbers not adjusted for seasonal variations in September than were working in August.

 How can we have 873,000 more people working but only 114,000 more jobs?
  • Seasonal adjustments this month are a bit strange.  
  • In unadjusted numbers, we actually added 574,000 jobs, not 114,000.  
  • And in unadjusted numbers, we actually added 775,000 workers, not 873,000. 
  • Therefore, we have a difference of about 200,000 workers vs. jobs, not 760,000.
  • Additionally, about 100,000 more people said they were self-employed in unincorporated businesses this month vs. August.
  • This brings the difference down to about 100,000.   
(Note:  All of my employment number reports are based on monthly reports and data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  Monthly numbers reports are based on the monthly Employment Situation Report.  The Employment Situation report includes month over month and year over year jobs numbers.  My analysis is taken from the monthly BLS data copied to an Excel spreadsheet every month.  I calculate detailed percentage increases/decreases, 3 month numbers, 2011 to date numbers, and I compare jobs numbers to those at the time of Obama's inauguration and at the "trough" of the recession.)

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