Molly's Middle America: July 2014 Unemployment Rate; Jobs

July 2014 Jobs Numbers and Unemployment Rate were released this morning, Friday, August 1, 2014. Details, analysis, graphs, and reports will be presented throughout the day and over the weekend.

A positive jobs report was a "miss"? This was a good jobs report, with a significant addition of jobs, The BLS reports that 209,000 payroll jobs were added in July. It was considered a "miss" by some because the number of jobs added was lower than the 231,000 new jobs estimated, even though it is the 4th straight month with job increases exceeding 200,000. Jobs added per month have averaged 230,000 so far this year, whereas only 194,000 jobs per month were added in 2013.
The unemployment rate increased slightly to 6.2% as 329,000 people joined the labor force. The number of people employed increased by 131,000 and the number of people unemployed increased by 197,000. The number of people who lost their jobs decreased by 3,000.
Of the additional 197,000 people who were unemployed in July, 144,000 were people re-entering the labor force; that is, people who had been working at some time in the past, had stopped looking for work, and again started to look for work in July. The number of people who lost their jobs decreased by 3,000.
June jobs numbers were revised upwards by 10,000 to 298,000 and May numbers were revised upwards by 5,000 to 229,000. Job growth has averaged 209,000/month over the past 12 months.
Private jobs increased by 198,000. Construction jobs increased by 8,000; manufacturing jobs increased by 22,000. Private service-producing jobs increased by 140,000. Unfortunately, the biggest gains continue to be in lower-paying and temporary areas, such as Retail, Temporary Help Services, and Food Services and Drinking Places.
Government jobs increased by 11,000, with 10,200 of those additions in the "Local Government/Non Education" sector.
The alternate unemployment rate (which includes part time workers who want full time jobs, discouraged workers, and marginally attached workers) INCREASED by one tenth of a percent to 12.2%, reflecting the increase of 197,000 in the number of unemployed, as well as increases in the number of discouraged workers (+65,000) and the number of other "marginally attached" workers (+84,000). The number of involuntary part-time workers, however, decreased by 33,000. One year ago the alternate unemployment rate was 13.9%.
The labor force increased by 329,000 in July.
The number of people employed, including agricultural and self-employed, increased 131,000 in seasonally adjusted numbers in July. Most of the growth in employment, 87,000, occurred among young people 16 to 24 years of age. As seasonal adjustments usually account for more young people working during the summer, perhaps more people in this age group were able to get summer jobs than in recent previous summers. Further analysis is needed to determine if this is accurate.
Full-time workers increased by 285,000 in July, while part-time workers decreased 52,000. Over the past year, the number of full-time workers has increased by 2.3 million and the number of part-time workers has decreased by 110,000.
Since the "trough" of the recession in late 2009/early 2010 in seasonally adjusted numbers:

9.3 million MORE jobs in total

9.9 million MORE private sector jobs

8.3 million MORE people working*

Since Bush left office & Obama took office (January 2009) in seasonally adjusted numbers:

5.0 million MORE jobs in total

5.7 million MORE private sector jobs

4.2 million MORE people working*

July 2014 reports to be published: (Notation on the links will be changed to "July" or "Updated for July" when the updated reports become available.)

How Many Jobs Were Created in 2013? - UPDATED with final 2013 numbers.

The following July Jobs Projections were posted earlier in the week:

ADP, the private payroll service, estimated that 218,000 new private sector jobs were created in July, with the biggest gains in trade, transportation, and utilities. Though the 218,000 new private jobs is less than the 281,000 private jobs estimated for June, it is the 4th month in a row with private employment gains over 200,000. This is the strongest run of job growth since the recession hit in late 2007/early 2008. ADP numbers are often considered a harbinger for the BLS numbers, usually released two days after the ADP report. First time unemployment claims in early July were lower than they have been since early 2007. Now we wait until tomorrow, Friday, to see what the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) says.
From Business Insider:

"Economists estimate nonfarm payrolls increased by 231,000 in July, driven by a 228,000 jump in private payrolls. The unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged at 6.1%. Average hourly earnings is expected to have increased by 2.2% year-over-year. Here's Morgan Stanley's Ted Wieseman, who is estimating 230,000 payrolls: "Jobless claims fell to a seven-year low in the July survey week and then an eight-year low the next week, pointing to the pace of firings continuing to run at historically low levels, and business surveys have been pointing to some pickup in sluggish hiring rates. Consumer confidence surveys have shown rising confidence in job-finding prospects, also consistent with a pickup in hiring but likely to support a higher quit rate. Strength in motor vehicle production, with July assemblies scheduled to rise to an eleven-year high in seasonally adjusted terms, we expect will support an outsized gain in manufacturing payrolls. The rise in employment we’re forecasting would lower then unemployment rate another tenth to 6.0% with a stable labor force participation rate, which is our baseline at this point, assuming the demographic downtrend of 0.2 to 0.3pp per year from the aging of the population is being offset by returning discouraged workers."

Molly's Middle America

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Friday, August 1, 2014

July 2014 Unemployment Rate; Jobs

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