How has Obama done on jobs?
3,745,000 gained since "trough" of recession.
How Has Obama done on private-sector jobs?
4,248,000 gained since the "trough" of the recession.
26 months of private-sector job growth.
19 months of over all job growth.
Have any jobs been LOST (net) over the past 26 months?
No net jobs have been LOST since September 2010 (19 months) when the last of the Census 2010 workers were let go.
Have any private jobs been LOST (net) over the past 26 months? NO.
(Explanations below. Keep reading.)
How many jobs have been lost or gained during the Obama administration? Have more new jobs been created or have more jobs been lost under Obama to date? (The following numbers reflect the labor situation as of March 2012. For current numbers, please click one of the links above!)
Summary: We are still in negative territory in terms of jobs numbers since Obama took office. We still have 572,000 FEWER jobs (total) now than when Obama was inaugurated, but we now have 35,000 MORE private-sector jobs than when Obama was inaugurated. (You can find updates to these numbers HERE!.)
However, we are now adding jobs at a fair clip, with an average of 171,000 MORE jobs total added per month since December 2010, and an average of 188,000 MORE jobs added per month in the private sector since December 2010.
Here's a summary of data from the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics). All numbers lost to the "trough" of the recession reflect ALL non-farm jobs lost between the time Obama took office and the lowest point of the recession in late 2009/early 2010 :
(Note: All of the jobs numbers are NET numbers. In other words, we know that jobs are lost and added every month, in good years and in bad. The numbers reported here, based on Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers, are "net" numbers; that is, the number of jobs gained after the number of jobs lost is subtracted, or the number of jobs lost after the number of jobs gained is added.)
Seasonally adjusted:
- All jobs lost from the time Obama took office to "trough" (bottom of recession): .....4,317,000
- All jobs gained since "trough": ....3,745,000
Net LOSS in seasonally-adjusted jobs since Obama took office: .... 572,000
"Raw:" numbers not seasonally adjusted:
- Jobs lost from the time Obama took office to trough: .....4,246,000
- Jobs gained since "trough": .......5,658,000
Net GAINED in raw unadjusted jobs since Obama took office: ..... 1,412,000
*Though, as of April 2012, we still have fewer jobs (in adjusted numbers) than when President Obama took office, jobs are being added at a faster clip under Obama than under George Bush at the same time in his presidency. At this point in Bush's presidency (April 2004), there were still 1,415,000 fewer jobs than when he was inaugurated in January 2001 (compared to 572,000 fewer for Obama). The number of jobs didn't eclipse the number when Bush was first inaugurated until February 2005, in Bush's second term.
How many private sector jobs have been gained or lost since Obama took office?
- Private-sector jobs lost to "trough" (bottom of recession): .....4,212,000
- Private-sector jobs gained since "trough": .....4,248,000
*(This is the number often used by Obama and the Democrats as the number of private jobs created since the "trough" of the recession . It is a correct number, but it is a seasonally-adjusted number. In "real" unadjusted numbers, 5,630,000 private sector jobs have been created since the "trough" of the recession.)
Net GAIN in seasonally-adjusted private-sector jobs since Obama took office: ....35,000
"Raw:" numbers not seasonally adjusted:
- Private-sector jobs lost to "trough": .....4,151,000
- Private-sector jobs gained since "trough": .....5,630,000
Net GAIN in "raw" unadjusted private-sector jobs since Obama took office: .....1,479,000
*Though, as of April 2012, we still have fewer private-sector jobs (in adjusted numbers) than when President Obama took office, jobs are being added at a faster clip under Obama than under George Bush at the same time in his presidency. At this point in Bush's presidency (April 2004), there were still 2,194,000 fewer private sector jobs than when he was inaugurated in January 2001 (compared to 35,000 MORE for Obama). The number of private-sector jobs didn't eclipse the number when Bush was first inaugurated until June 2005, in Bush's second term.
Summary of April jobs activity:
Jobs increased 115,000 in total in April 2012 (vs. a revised increase of 154,000 in March). Private sector jobs continued to increase while government sector jobs continued to decrease. Private sector jobs increased by 130,000 (vs. a revised increase of 166,000 in March), while government jobs decreased by 15,000 (vs. a revised decrease of 12,000 in March).
Is it true that over 4 million private sector jobs have been created in the Obama administration as the Democrats claim?
(Summary of gross and net jobs activity since Obama was inaugurated is below the jump--- Keep reading!)
Yes, if one is looking at numbers created from the bottom ("trough") of the recession. In fact, that number is now low. In seasonally adjusted numbers as of April 2012, 4,248,000 private-sector jobs have been created since the bottom of the recession. (Remember that job loss continued for about a year after Obama was inaugurated.)
Have any private jobs been lost over the past 26 months?
Remember that these are NET job gains. In other words, jobs are lost and jobs are gained all of the time, in good economies and in bad. In growing economies, more jobs are gained over a period of months than are lost. In declining economies, more jobs are lost over a period of months than are gained. Over the past 26 months, we have a net gain (more jobs gained than lost) of 4,248,000 private sector jobs, and a net gain (more jobs gained than lost) of 3,745,000 total jobs. In NET terms, NO jobs have been lost over the past 26 months; we have only added jobs.
How many workers have been laid off or hired (net) during the Obama administration?
Seasonally adjusted:
- Fewer people working (net) to "trough" : .....4,219,000
- More people working (net) since "trough": ....3,869,000
Net LOSS in seasonally-adjusted number of people working since Obama took office: .....322,000
"Raw:" numbers not seasonally adjusted:
- Fewer workers to "trough": .......3,627,000
- More workers since "trough": .....5,186,000
Net GAIN in "raw" unadjusted number of people working since Obama took office: .....1,559,000
Can you summarize the above?
- Obama was inaugurated in January 2009 when the economy was in free fall and we were losing about 700,000 jobs a month. Over 4,400,000 jobs were lost before Obama took office.
- The employment situation did not bottom out until late 2009 or early 2010. An additional 4,300,000 jobs were lost between the time that Obama took office and the bottom ("trough") of the recession.
- That's a total job loss of at least 8,700,000 jobs over approximately 2 years.
- Since the economy started to add jobs under Obama, 3,745,000 jobs have been added using seasonally-adjusted numbers (See below).
- Since the economy started to add jobs under Obama, 5,630,000 jobs have been added using "real" unadjusted numbers.
- We still need more jobs to overcome the loss of jobs that started in 2008 and to make up for the increase in population since 2008. Please remember that over 49,000,000 people were laid off between Spring of 2008 and the end of 2009, even though people continued to be hired during that time.
- However, we now have MORE private-sector jobs in seasonally adjusted numbers than we did when Obama took office, and we now haveMORE people reporting themselves as working in unadjusted numbers than we did when Obama took office, and we are approaching that point in all numbers of jobs and workers.
How did you come up with these numbers? Why isn't there one number instead of all of these?
Counting jobs or workers is very tricky. In seasonal numbers, we lost more jobs and workers in the first year of Obama's administration (4.3 million jobs lost), when the economy was struggling to pull out of recession, than we gained during the second and third years of Obama's administration when we experienced job growth. In this fourth year of Obama's administration, however, we are now ahead of the numbers of jobs and workers when Obama took office in private jobs numbers and in most seasonally unadjusted numbers of workers and jobs.
Job growth was brisk in the first months of 2011, slowed down towards the middle of the year, then picked up during the last months of the year. Job growth has slowed a bit this spring, but has continued nonetheless. Private sector job growth continued throughout 2011 into 2012. We now have 26 months straight of private sector job growth.
There's usually no one number that explains everything, and most monthly numbers need to be seen as "trends", not absolutes. People use the unemployment rate, but even that can vary for so many reasons that don't really reflect the true state of the labor market.
A few explanations and more detail:
What is a "trough"? When did we hit the low point of jobs and workers? When did we hit the high point of unemployment?
I use the term "trough" to designate the lowest point of jobs or workers in this recession. The various counts reach their "troughs" in various months, so it may be a bit confusing. The unemployment rate reached its high point in October 2009. The seasonally adjusted number of workers reached its low point in December 2009, but so many workers had dropped out of the work force that the unemployment rate had actually come down. In raw, unadjusted numbers of workers and jobs, we reached our nadir in January 2010. The seasonally-adjusted number of jobs reached its low point a month later, in February 2010.
How Many Jobs were Lost from the time Obama took office until the "trough" of jobs lost?
- In seasonally adjusted numbers, employers reported 133,561,000 jobs in January 2009. At the trough of the recession in February 2010, there were 129,244,000 jobs. That's a loss of 4,317,000 jobs from the time Obama took office until the "trough" of the recession.
- In "raw" numbers (not adjusted for seasonal variances), employers reported 131,555,000 jobs in January 2009. At the trough of the recession in January 2010, there were 127,309,000 jobs. That's a loss of 4,246,000 jobs from the time Obama took office until the "trough" of the recession.
How Many Fewer Were Employed from the time Obama took office until the "trough" of employment?
- In seasonally adjusted numbers, 142,187,000 people reported themselves as employed in January 2009. At the trough of the recession in December 2009, 137,968,000 people reported themselves as employed. That's a loss of 4,219,000 employed people from the time Obama took office until the "trough" of the recession.
- In "raw" numbers (not adjusted for seasonal variances), 140,436,000 people reported themselves as employed in January 2009. At the trough of the recession in January 2010, 136,809,000 people reported themselves as employed. That's a loss of 3,627,000 employed people from the time Obama took office until the "trough" of the recession.
What was the unemployment rate when Obama took office? How high did it go?
- For the record, when Obama took office in January 2009, the "official" unemployment rate in seasonally adjusted numbers was 7.8%, with 12,049,000 people reported themselves as unemployed and actively looking. In "raw" numbers not adjusted for seasonal variance, the unemployment rate was already 8.5% with 13,009,000 people reporting themselves as unemployed and actively looking for work.
- At the trough of the recession in late 2009/early 2010, the "official" unemployment rate in seasonally adjusted numbers was 10.0% in October 2009 with 15,421,000 people (out of a labor force of about 153,822,000) reporting themselves as unemployed. In "raw" numbers not adjusted for seasonal variance, the unemployment rate reached a peak of 10.6% in January 2010 with 16,147,000 (out of a labor force of about 153,000,000) reporting themselves as unemployed and actively looking for work.
- Now, in April 2012, the "official" unemployment rate in seasonally adjusted numbers is 8.1%, which is less than the March 2012 unemployment rate with 12,500,000 (out of a labor force of 154,365,000) reporting themselves as unemployed. In unadjusted "raw" numbers, the unemployment rate is now 7.7%, a decrease of .7% (seven-tenths of a percent) compared to the unadjusted unemployment rate in March 2012. (Remember, the unadjusted unemployment rate was 8.5% when Obama was inaugurated.)
How many jobs have been created since the "trough" of the recession in late 2009/early 2010 to now, April 2012?
- In seasonally adjusted numbers, 3,945,000 jobs have been created since the "trough" of the recession in February 2010.
- In raw unadjusted numbers, 5,658,000 jobs have been created since the "trough" of the recession in January 2010.
How many more people reported they were working since the "trough" of the recession in late 2009/early 2010 to now, April 2012?
- In seasonally adjusted numbers, 3,897,000 more people are working since the trough of the recession in December 2009.
- In "raw" unadjusted numbers, 5,186,000 more people are working since the trough of the recession in January 2010.
How Many New Jobs That President Obama Claims to Create Have Been Lost Now?
Many people find my blog as they attempt to figure out how many jobs have been LOST under President Obama. The above is one such question that someone is trying to answer.
For the benefit of this person and others with similar questions about job loss under Obama, let me make this clear: Since February 2010, we have had NO net losses in private-sector jobs. Since September 2010, after all Census 2010 workers were released, we have had NO net losses in total jobs.
ALL JOBS LOSSES took place in the FIRST YEAR of Obama's presidency. Look at the chart of private sector job growth HERE. You should then get the picture.
(Note: All of my employment number reports are based on monthly reports and data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Monthly numbers reports are based on the monthly Employment Situation Report. The Employment Situation report includes month over month and year over year numbers of jobs and workers. My analysis is taken from the monthly BLS data copied to an Excel spreadsheet every month. I calculate detailed percentage increases/decreases, 3 month numbers, 2011 to date numbers, and I compare jobs numbers to those at the time of Obama's inauguration and at the "trough" of the recession. As the BLS revises its numbers as new information is available, I use the latest available numbers in my monthly articles, which means that those numbers may differ slightly from numbers published in previous months.)
