Weekly New First-Time Unemployment Claims Take a Tumble

January jobs reports to be released Friday, February 1st.  Check back for updates!

First time unemployment jobless claims decreased significantly by 37,000 for the week ending January 12th.  The four-week moving average # of claims decreased by 6,750.  First time claims are now at about the same level that they were in late 2007 to early 2008.

(Even though these numbers are seasonally adjusted, claims numbers around the holidays do tend to be volatile and should only be analyzed in terms of a trend over a period of weeks.  See the graph below.) 

For the week ending December 29nd, 5,821,966 people were receiving unemployment benefits under one of the programs that are available (regular state, federal extended unemployment compensation, or a few other smaller programs).  This was an increase of 465,000 continuing claims since the previous week, a fairly typical increase for the week after Christmas.

Some of the increase in continuing claims could also have been due to confusion related to the expiration of the unemployment extensions and the subsequent fiscal cliff deal.  The numbers of continuing claims may have been more volatile than usual.  Unemployment extensions did expire December 29th, but they were then continued as part of the fiscal cliff deal on January 2nd.  People who have not yet exhausted all of their available unemployment extensions are still eligible to collect under the EUC program. 

Percent of Unemployed People Receiving Benefits increased to about 49.2%.

The chart above is one of the BEST charts for understanding and observing changes in the weekly initial claims numbers over time.  This year (red-2012-13) and the past three years (blue- 2009-10, green- 2010-11 and black- 2011-12) are marked in different colors.  You can see that, as a trend, first time claims for unemployment have gone down SIGNIFICANTLY from one year to the next, even though there are variations within the year.  You can also see the impact of Hurricane Sandy on claims in November 2012. 

Be aware that:

1. The graph above shows first time claims, so people who have continued to receive benefits or who have lost unemployment benefits are not counted in these numbers.  
2. They are seasonally adjusted, so most variations caused by weather or holidays are already included in these numbers.  
3. As these are weekly numbers, they are more volatile than the monthly numbers.

What Was the Unemployment Rate When Obama Took Office? (November update)

All Jobs Reports & Numbers Indexed HERE! (December, all 2012 & 2011)

First time unemployment claims decreased by 37,000 over those reported last week.  Last week's initial claims numbers were revised upwards by  1,000.  There have usually been slight upwards revisions  (1,000 to 3,000) in the numbers of initial claims in most of the weeks of the past four months.  (The chart above shows REVISED claims numbers.)

As usual, to put this into perspective, check out the red line on the chart above to see where jobless claims are now, in late 2012/early 2013, compared to the past three years.

From the current report:

In the week ending January 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 335,000, a decrease of 37,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 372,000. The 4-week moving average was 359,250, a decrease of 6,750 from the previous week's revised average of 366,000.

The initial claims as announced last week were 371,000, so the claims from that week were revised upwards by 1,000. 

Current December/January Initial Claims Continue to be the Lowest Since Late 2007/Early 2008.

As a whole, the current numbers of initial claims continue to be the lowest December/January initial claims numbers since late 2007/early 2008.
  

Continuing regular state claims, from people who are continuing to claim unemployment through the initial 20 to 26 week regular unemployment program, increased 87,000 for the week ending January 5th after decreasing 109,000 the week before.  3,214,000 people filed continuing regular state claims in the week ending January 5th.  As a whole, continuing regular claims continue to decline despite some individual weekly increases.  (There were 3,497,000 continuing claims a year ago.) 

Total number of people receiving unemployment insurance increased to 49.2% of the officially unemployed for the week ending December 29nd.  

The weekly report also tells us the total number of people who are receiving unemployment benefits.  For the week ending December 29th, 5,821,966 people were receiving unemployment benefits under one of the programs that are available (regular state, extended benefits, federal extended unemployment compensation, or a few other smaller programs).  This compares with 11,844,000 people who are unemployed according to the monthly December unemployment situation report which was released two weeks ago.  Those numbers, showing that only 49.2% of the officially unemployed are receiving benefits, should make it clear that people do NOT need to be receiving unemployment insurance to be counted among the unemployed.  (This ratio and these two numbers are NOT seasonally adjusted.)

Extended Benefits (EB) Expire

Extended Benefits claims have expired as NO states were eligible for Extended Benefits in the latest report.  

As of the week ending December 22nd, only 1,143 people were still receiving Extended Benefits, as mentioned above.  As recently as late April, 350,579 people were receiving Extended Benefits.  A year ago, 533,172 people were receiving Extended Benefits.

Therefore, in about eight months, 99.7% of the people who were receiving Extended Benefits are no longer receiving such benefits.  We do not know how many of these 348,000 people found jobs, how many have another source of income in the family, and how many have nothing. 

To reiterate, while a decrease in the number of people FILING for initial claims is a good thing and indicates that fewer people are being laid off, a decrease in the TOTAL number of people getting unemployment insurance may only show that fewer people are eligible for unemployment insurance benefits.

Any questions or confusion, please leave a comment or email me!

Weekly Unemployment Claims Increase Very Slightly

First time unemployment jobless claims increased by 4,000 for the week ending January 5th.  The four-week moving average # of claims increased by 6,750.  First time claims are now about what they were in early 2008.
(Even though these numbers are seasonally adjusted, claims numbers around the holidays do tend to be volatile and should only be analyzed in terms of a trend over a period of weeks.) 

For the week ending December 22nd, 5,356,271 people were receiving unemployment benefits under one of the programs that are available (regular state, federal extended unemployment compensation, or a few other smaller programs).  This was a decrease of 51,000  continuing claims since the previous week.

Most of this drop of 51,000 continuing claims was due to a drop of 74,000 continuing claims in the EUC (federal unemployment extensions) program  between December 15th and December 22nd.  

Some of the drop in continuing claims could have been due to confusion related to the expiration of the unemployment extensions.  However, the current unemployment extensions were continued as part of the fiscal cliff deal, so people who have not yet exhausted all of their available unemployment extensions are still eligible to collect under the EUC program. 

Percent of Unemployed People Receiving Benefits has decreased to about 45.2%.

The chart above is one of the BEST charts for understanding and observing changes in the weekly initial claims numbers over time.  This year (red-2012-13) and the past three years (blue- 2009-10, green- 2010-11 and black- 2011-12) are marked in different colors.  You can see that, as a trend, first time claims for unemployment have gone down SIGNIFICANTLY from one year to the next, even though there are variations within the year.  You can also see the impact of Hurricane Sandy on claims in November 2012. 

Be aware that:

1. The graph above shows first time claims, so people who have continued to receive benefits or who have lost unemployment benefits are not counted in these numbers.  
2. They are seasonally adjusted, so most variations caused by weather or holidays are already included in these numbers.  
3. As these are weekly numbers, they are more volatile than the monthly numbers.

What Was the Unemployment Rate When Obama Took Office? (November update)

All Jobs Reports & Numbers Indexed HERE! (December, all 2012 & 2011)

First time unemployment claims decreased by 5,000 over those reported last week.  Last week's initial claims numbers were revised downwards by  9,000.  There have usually been slight upwards revisions  (1,000 to 3,000) in the numbers of initial claims in most of the weeks of the past four months.  (The chart above shows REVISED claims numbers.)

As usual, to put this into perspective, check out the red line on the chart above to see where jobless claims are now, in late 2012/early 2013, compared to the past three years.

From the current report:

In the week ending January 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 371,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 367,000. The 4-week moving average was 365,750, an increase of 6,750 from the previous week's revised average of 359,000.

The initial claims as announced last week were 372,000, so the claims from that week were revised downwards by 5,000. 

Current December/January Initial Claims Continue to be the Lowest Since Early 2008.

As a whole, the current numbers of initial claims continue to be the lowest December/January initial claims numbers since 2008.
  

Continuing regular state claims, from people who are continuing to claim unemployment through the initial 20 to 26 week regular unemployment program, decreased 127,000 for the week ending December 29th after increasing by 44,000 the week before.  3,109,000 people filed continuing regular state claims in the week ending December 29th.  As a whole, continuing regular claims continue to decline despite some individual weekly increases.  (There were 3,606,000 continuing claims a year ago.) 

Total number of people receiving unemployment insurance decreased slightly to 45.2% of the officially unemployed for the week ending December 22nd.  

The weekly report also tells us the total number of people who are receiving unemployment benefits.  For the week ending December 22nd, 5,356,271 people were receiving unemployment benefits under one of the programs that are available (regular state, extended benefits, federal extended unemployment compensation, or a few other smaller programs).  This compares with 11,844,000 people who are unemployed according to the monthly December unemployment situation report which was released last week.  Those numbers, showing that only 45.2% of the officially unemployed are receiving benefits, should make it clear that people do NOT need to be receiving unemployment insurance to be counted among the unemployed.  (This ratio and these two numbers are NOT seasonally adjusted.)

Extended Benefits (EB) Expire

Extended Benefits claims have expired as NO states were eligible for Extended Benefits in the latest report.  

As of the week ending December 22nd, only 1,045 people were still receiving Extended Benefits, as mentioned above.  As recently as late April, 350,579 people were receiving Extended Benefits.  A year ago, 528,184 people were receiving Extended Benefits.

In about seven months, 99.7% of the people who were receiving Extended Benefits are no longer receiving such benefits.  We do not know how many of these 345,000 people found jobs, how many have another source of income in the family, and how many have nothing. 

To reiterate, while a decrease in the number of people FILING for initial claims is a good thing and indicates that fewer people are being laid off, a decrease in the TOTAL number of people getting unemployment insurance may only show that fewer people are eligible for unemployment insurance benefits.

Any questions or confusion, please leave a comment or email me!

Private & Government Jobs Gained & Lost Under Obama (December 2012 update)

All Latest Jobs & Unemployment Reports (2011 - 2013) Listed Here

Jobs Lost and Gained Year by Year Since 1999 HERE!

Private & Government Jobs Gained, Lost Under Obama (March 2013 update) HERE!

The following numbers are as of December 2012.  For latest updates, please click one of the links above. 

How many jobs (total, private, and government) have been lost or gained since Obama was inaugurated?  (December 2012 update)  

• 4,317,000 TOTAL jobs (in seasonally adjusted numbers) were LOST in from the time Obama took office until the "trough" of the recession in early 2010.  That's a decrease of 3.2%.    
• 4,777,000 jobs (in seasonally adjusted numbers) were CREATED from the "trough" of the recession until now, December 2012.  That's an increase of 3.7%.
• In total, 460,000  jobs (in seasonally adjusted numbers) were ADDED from the time Obama took office until now, December 2012.  That's an increase of 0.3%.
• We have experienced 27 months WITHOUT job losses since September 2010.  We have ADDED 4,136,000 jobs during those 27 months. 
• We now have 134, 021,000 TOTAL non-farm jobs. 

With Benchmark Revisions:

• 4,317,000 TOTAL jobs (in seasonally adjusted numbers) were LOST in from the time Obama took office until the "trough" of the recession in early 2010.  That's a decrease of 3.2%.    
• 5,163,000 jobs (in seasonally adjusted numbers) were CREATED from the "trough" of the recession until now, December 2012. 
• In total, 846,000  jobs (in seasonally adjusted numbers) were ADDED from the time Obama took office until now, December 2012.   
• We now have 134,407,000 TOTAL non-farm jobs. 

* Click on the link for information about Benchmark Revisions which were released last week by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  The BLS databases will not be updated with these new numbers until January 2013.

*  These are all net figures, meaning that they represent the total number of jobs at the end of a reporting period.  All losses have been subtracted from all gains and vice verse.

*  For the purposes of comparison, jobs are being added at a faster clip under Obama than under George Bush at the same time in his presidency.  At this point in Bush's presidency (December 2004), there were still 150,000 FEWER jobs than when he was inaugurated in January 2001 (compared to 846,000 MORE for Obama).  The number of jobs didn't eclipse the number when Bush was first inaugurated until February 2005, in Bush's second term.    

How Many Jobs Lost or Added Under Obama? (December 2012 update)

September 27th Important Jobs Update: Good News- 386,000 More Jobs Than Estimated.

How many PRIVATE sector jobs have been lost or gained since Obama was inaugurated?

• 4,213,000 PRIVATE-sector jobs (in seasonally adjusted numbers) were LOST from the time Obama took office until the "trough" of the recession in early 2010.  That's a decrease of 3.8%.
• 5,323,000 PRIVATE-sector jobs (in seasonally adjusted numbers) were GAINED OR CREATED from the "trough" of the recession until now, December 2012.  That's an increase of 5.0%.
• In total, 1,111,000 private sector jobs (in seasonally adjusted numbers) have been GAINED from the time Obama took office until now, December 2012.  That's a net increase of 1.0%. *
• We have experienced 34 months of positive private-sector job GROWTH from February 2010 until December 2012.  We have added 5,323,000 private-sector jobs during those 34 months.    
• We now have 112,096,000  PRIVATE sector non-farm jobs.

With Benchmark Revisions:

• 4,213,000 PRIVATE-sector jobs (in seasonally adjusted numbers) were LOST from the time Obama took office until the "trough" of the recession in early 2010.  
• 5,776,000 PRIVATE-sector jobs (in seasonally adjusted numbers) were GAINED OR CREATED from the "trough" of the recession until now, December 2012. 
• In total, 1,564,000 private sector jobs (in seasonally adjusted numbers) have been GAINED from the time Obama took office until now, December 2012. 
• We now have 112,549,000 PRIVATE sector non-farm jobs.

*Though, as of December 2012, we still have fewer private-sector jobs (in adjusted numbers) than when President Obama took office, jobs are being added at a faster clip under Obama than under George Bush at the same time in his presidency.  At this point in Bush's presidency (December 2004), there were still 1,008,000 FEWER private sector jobs than when he was inaugurated in January 2001 (compared to 1,564,000 MORE for Obama).  The number of private-sector jobs didn't eclipse the number when Bush was first inaugurated until June 2005, in Bush's second term.  

How many GOVERNMENT jobs have been lost or gained since Obama was inaugurated?  (Government jobs include federal, state, and local government jobs.)

• 102,000 GOVERNMENT jobs (in seasonally adjusted numbers) were LOST from the time Obama took office until the "trough" of the recession in early 2010.  That's a decrease of  .47%  (about half of a percent). 
• Another 546,000 GOVERNMENT jobs (in seasonally adjusted numbers) were LOST from the "trough" of the recession until now, December 2012.  That's a decrease of 2.4%.    
• In total, 651,000 GOVERNMENT jobs (in seasonally adjusted numbers) were LOST from the time Obama took office until now, December 2012.  That's a decrease of 2.9%.  A large portion of these jobs, at least 270,000, have been lost in the "Local Government - Education" sector. (Teachers.)
• We have experienced decreases in the number of government jobs in 25 out of the last 30 months, starting in June 2010, when the layoff of 2010 Census workers began.  However, we have experienced slight increases in the number of government jobs in the last 3 out of the last 6 months.     
• We now have 21,925,000 GOVERNMENT jobs, not including people in the military.  (Civilians employed by the U.S. and working for the military are counted.)

With Benchmark Revisions:

• Another 576,000 GOVERNMENT jobs (in seasonally adjusted numbers) were LOST from the "trough" of the recession until now, December 2012.      
• In total, 718,000 GOVERNMENT jobs (in seasonally adjusted numbers) were LOST from the time Obama took office until now, December 2012.
• We now have 21,858,000 GOVERNMENT jobs, not including people in the military.  (Civilians employed by the U.S. and working for the military are counted.)

(Note:  Current numbers taken from the June Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation Report.  Historical numbers taken from various archived Employment Situation reports as indexed HERE. Specifics will be provided upon request; please email me or leave a comment.)

An afterthought---

A reader asks:

How Many Private Sector Jobs Were Lost Because of Obama?

We haven't lost ANY private sector jobs (net) since February 2010, a year after Obama took office.  Between January 2009 and February 2010, we lost 4,213,000 private sector jobs as stated above.

Should we "blame" Obama for not being immediately able to stem the tide of private sector job loss in 2009?  If a house is burning out of control and the fire department comes to put out the fire, it continues to burn until it is brought under control and cooled down, right?  Now.. would you blame the fire department for the continued fire and the time to put it out after the firefighters arrive on the scene?

Well, you might, but I wouldn't:  Here's my reasoning:  Burning Down the House!

So my answer to this question would be a big, fat ZERO.  I do NOT feel that Obama is to blame for any loss of jobs between January 2009 and February 2010.  If you think he is, please leave a comment and explain your reasoning!

December 2012 Jobs News Highlights

January jobs reports to be released Friday, February 1st.  Check back for updates!

December Jobs Reports & Summaries: 

• December Summary: Report shows INCREASES in total jobs and private-sector jobs; government jobs continued to decline.  Unemployment is even with November's revised 7.8% unemployment rate as 192,000 people enter the labor force and as the labor market continues to show a steady but slow recovery.
• The additional 192,000 people in the labor force resulted in an increase of 28,000 in the number of people employed, as well as an increase of 164,000 in the number of people unemployed.   
• The number of unemployed people increased primarily because 262,000 people re-entered the labor force and started to look for work.  The number of people unemployed because they were laid off or finished temporary jobs declined by 21,000. The number of people who were unemployed because they quit their last job increased by 57,000.   An increase in the number of people quitting vs. being laid off from their jobs is a sign of labor recovery.  
• Unemployment among white people rose 0.1% to 6.9% in December; Unemployment among African-Americans rose 0.8% to 14.0% in December (after declining 0.8% in November).  Unemployment among Hispanics dropped in December by 0.3% to 9.6%.  Unemployment among Asians rose 0.2% to 6.6% in December. 
• Economy adds 155,000 jobs; about what was predicted.  Private sector jobs increased by 168,000; government jobs decreased this month by 13,000.  
• November jobs numbers were adjusted upwards by 15,000.  Private sector numbers were revised upwards by 17,000.  We have 453,000 more jobs than we had in September 2012, or an increase of 151,000 jobs in each of those three months.  (We need about 70,000 new jobs a month to keep up with the population growth.)  
• Manufacturing jobs increased by 25,000; private service-producing jobs increase by 109,000.   
• Unemployment remained at 3.9% for people 25 and over with Bachelor's degrees or higher.  The unemployment rate for young people under 25 with Bachelor's degrees or higher and not currently in school is 8.2%.
• The unemployment rates for people without a high school degree and for high school graduates with no college dropped, from 12.1% to 11.7% and from 8.1% to 8.0% respectively.
• Employment increased the most for men between 25 and 54 years of age.  176,000 more men in this age bracket reported themselves as employed in December over November.  Employment for women between the ages of 35 and 54 declined.
• 203,000 MORE full-time workers this month; 15,000 FEWER part-time workers.  We have 2,048,000 MORE full-time workers than we had a year ago and 376,000 MORE part-time workers than we had a year ago.
• We have about 190,000 MORE self-employed workers than we had last month and we have 262,000 MORE self-employed workers than we did a year ago.  (The number of self-employed workers tends to be volatile.) 
• 2,409,000 MORE people employed in total than a year ago.
• 843,000 FEWER people unemployed than a year ago.
• 1,566,000 MORE people in the civilian labor force (either employed or actively looking for work) than a year ago.
• About 1,835,000 MORE jobs than we had a year ago.  (About 1,913,000 more jobs including benchmark revisions.)
• 5.2 million more jobs in total than at the "trough" of the recession (including benchmark revisions); 5.8 million more private sector jobs than at the "trough" of the recession (including benchmark revisions).

Updated for December:

• Jobs Lost/Created Year by Year Since 1999

• Private/government Jobs by Month for 2011 & 2012
• Private Sector Job Loss/Growth Since 2008 w/ Graph (Updated for December 2012)
• Private & Government Jobs Gained & Lost Under Obama (December Update)
• How Many Jobs Have Been Created/Lost Under Obama? (Latest December 2012 update)

Watch for the following updates for December throughout the coming week:

• What Was the Unemployment Rate When Obama took Office Compared To Now? 

• How Many Jobs Lost/Gained in 2012 to date?

Unemployment Falling Off the Fiscal Cliff?

Update January 2, 2013 (1 a.m.): The House has approved the Senate "fiscal cliff" deal and it has been signed into law.   It includes CONTINUING the unemployment benefit extensions that were enacted last February and are described below.  This does not mean that 52 weeks will be added to the existing deal, but that the existing deal will be AVAILABLE for another 52 weeks.   It does NOT include any MORE extensions.  Check your state's available unemployment weeks HERE.  If, according to the chart  HERE, people in your state were entitled to 73 weeks of unemployment benefits and you have used up your 73 weeks, you will not get any more weeks.  But if you have only used up 60 weeks, then you will still get the last 13 (unless the unemployment rate in your state drops below the trigger).  If you exhausted your weeks of unemployment benefits in 2009, 2010, 2011, or 2012,  there are NO extra weeks for you.  Please check back as we will include more details as they become available.  

Update 1/1/2013 3 a.m. CST:  The Senate approved a Fiscal Cliff deal that will extend unemployment insurance for one more year early this morning.  It has still not been passed by the House.  This does not mean that 52 weeks will be added to the existing deal, but that the existing deal will be AVAILABLE for another 52 weeks.   I will have more information about this tomorrow morning; please bookmark this page and check back.  

All Other Jobs & Unemployment Reports HERE

Well, here it is, 5:30 central time New Year's Eve and apparently the House of Representatives are going to pack up and go home for the night.  Party time, you know?

Now the last we heard, the Republicans have agreed to extend extended unemployment benefits for a year; however, as that is supposed to be part of the whole fiscal cliff deal, that won't be set in stone for a few days at least.  It will probably mean that people depending on extended unemployment benefits will miss a week of payments, but, as the measure will probably be passed retroactively, they will eventually get all missed moneys. (If you are trying to figure out how many weeks of unemployment benefits you might or might not have, please click to the middle of THIS PAGE.)   

Now is this good or bad?  As part of a family that depended on unemployment insurance last year at this time, I can tell you that it is very nerve-wracking to wonder how you are going to pay basic bills, keep a roof over your head, and keep the heat on if those extensions aren't extended.

Will the fiscal cliff deal cause a rise in unemployment?

Compared to no deal (which would have caused at least a temporary rise in unemployment), it is doubtful that this deal will lead to MORE unemployment.  Actually, a moderate increase in taxes seems to stimulate employment and job growth.  We've had the biggest periods of job growth in this country when taxes were a bit higher.. or even quite a bit higher.

Here are some facts for those who are complaining about the unemployment extensions and the "lazy" unemployed:

• "Are we supposed to keep extending those unemployment benefits forever?  Those people will never get jobs!"

Nobody gets 99 weeks of unemployment anymore.  These are NOT extensions for people who were laid off in 2008, 2009, 2010, or even early to mid 2011.  I repeat:  This is NOT about extending unemployment benefits to three or four years, as some seem to think.     

The MOST anybody gets is 73 weeks of benefits, and that only goes to people living in about twelve states and territories:  California, Connecticut, some people in Georgia (depending on when they filed for unemployment), some people in Michigan (again, depending on when they filed for unemployment), Mississippi, Nevada, New Jersey, North Carolina, Rhode Island, some in South Carolina (depending on when they filed), people living in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. (Right now, Extended Benefits are not available anywhere; they are no longer available in New York.) 

As the weeks of unemployment are tied into a state's unemployment rate, some people only get 40 weeks right now, including people living in North Dakota, Virginia, Wyoming, Hawaii, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Hampshire, Oklahoma, South Dakota, and Vermont.  Those states have unemployment rates below 6%.  Now, this is a big bonus to people in North Dakota actually:  Even with a 3% unemployment rate, they still get those 40 weeks.  Bummer.  They should give some of those extra weeks to people in Nevada.

• "People are not looking for work because they keep getting unemployment extensions!"

Yeah, like that average $300/week payment is going to keep people living high on the hog.  Here's the reality:  As of October 31st (last data available), we have about 3,675,000 job openings in this country.  We have about 12,029,000 actively unemployed people, about 2,100,000 of whom are getting federal extended unemployment benefits.  Here's a simple subtraction problem for the naysayers:  If every one of those 3,675,000 job openings were filled tomorrow, how many unemployed people would we have left?  Yeah, that's right:  8,354,000.  And there is no way to guarantee that the 2,100,000 now depending on unemployment extensions would get any of those 3 million job openings.  

So stopping unemployment extensions when we still have over 3 jobseekers for every job will in no way guarantee that people will have work.

• "My neighbor/brother-in-law/cousin is just lying around the house collecting unemployment benefits.  He's not even looking for work!"  Or:  "He's working for cash under the table!"  Or:  "He only works for six months and then he gets fired and collects."Yikes.  Of course, there are people who are collecting and they should not be.  I don't know any of them.  If you know someone who is collecting and not looking for work (and you know they are not looking for work because they brag about it), find the fraud hotline for your state and turn them in.  Do your civic duty!  If you know someone working under the table and collecting benefits, find the fraud hotline for the IRS as well and turn them in.  Do your civic duty!  

About the guy working for six months, then getting fired and collecting.  Look, you don't make much if you have only worked for six months, for one thing; secondly, if you get fired for cause (not coming in, drinking on the job, fighting on the job, etc.), you won't get unemployment benefits unless your boss doesn't contest your claim.  If your friend's boss doesn't contest his claim every six months, there is not really much you can do about this.. except that I don't think this happens very often.  Some seasonal construction workers only work 6-9 months a year and then they get laid off and legitimately collect unemployment.  Most of them would much rather work more weeks during the year, as the unemployment doesn't necessarily make up for those 3-6 months they are off. 

• Here's my favorite crazy comment, complete with typos and bad spelling:  
  
  "Only the lazy people can not find a job in the world . you just don't look in trhe USA you look all over the world to get your job there are plenty out their"

So.. I guess that someone who is unemployed should.... stow away on a ship to China?  

March 2013 reports will be released Friday, April 5th.  Check back then!

 

Weekly Unemployment Claims Decrease

First time unemployment jobless claims decreased by 12,000 for the week ending December 22nd.  The four-week moving average # of claims decreased by a significant 11,250 as the claims increase from Hurricane Sandy receded.  We have now returned to first time claims numbers as low as those in late 2007 or early 2008.

For the week ending December 8th, 5,475,708 people were receiving unemployment benefits under one of the programs that are available (regular state, extended benefits, federal extended unemployment compensation, or a few other smaller programs).  This is an increase of about  73,000 continuing claims since the previous week. 

Percent of Unemployed People Receiving Benefits has increased to about 48%.

The chart above is one of the BEST charts for understanding and observing changes in the weekly initial claims numbers over time.  This year (red-2012) and the past three years (blue- 2009, green- 2010 and black- 2011) are marked in different colors.  You can see that, as a trend, first time claims for unemployment have gone down SIGNIFICANTLY from one year to the next, even though there are variations within the year.  You can also see the impact of Hurricane Sandy on claims in the last few weeks. 

Be aware that:

1. These are first time claims, so people who have continued to receive benefits or who have lost unemployment benefits are not counted in these numbers.  
2. They are seasonally adjusted, so most variations caused by weather or holidays are already included in these numbers.  
3. As these are weekly numbers, they are more volatile than the monthly numbers.

What Was the Unemployment Rate When Obama Took Office? (November update)

All Jobs Reports & Numbers Indexed HERE! (November, all 2012 & 2011)

First time unemployment claims decreased by 12,000 over those reported last week.  Last week's initial claims numbers were revised upwards by 1,000.  The four-week moving average decreased by 11,250.    There have been slight upwards revisions  (1,000 to 3,000) in the numbers of initial claims in most of the weeks of the past four months.  (The chart above shows REVISED claims numbers.)

As usual, to put this into perspective, check out the red line on the chart above to see where jobless claims are now, in late 2012, compared to the last months of the past three years.

From the current report:

In the week ending December 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 350,000, a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 362,000. The 4-week moving average was 356,750, a decrease of 11,250 from the previous week's revised average of 368,000.

The initial claims as announced last week were 361,000, so the claims from that week were revised upwards by 1,000. 

Current December Initial Claims Continue to be the Lowest Since Late 2007.

As a whole, the current numbers of initial claims continue to be the lowest December initial claims numbers since 2007.  

Continuing regular state claims, from people who are continuing to claim unemployment through the initial 20 to 26 week regular unemployment program, decreased 32,000 for the week ending December 15th after increasing by 25,000 the week before.  3,206,000 people filed continuing regular state claims in the week ending December 15th.  As a whole, continuing regular claims continue to decline despite some individual weekly increases.  (There were 3,595,000 continuing claims a year ago.) 

Total number of people receiving unemployment insurance increased slightly to 48% of the officially unemployed for the week ending December 8th.  

The weekly report also tells us the total number of people who are receiving unemployment benefits.  For the week ending December 8th, 5,475,708 people were receiving unemployment benefits under one of the programs that are available (regular state, extended benefits, federal extended unemployment compensation, or a few other smaller programs).  This compares with 11,404,000 people who are unemployed according to the monthly November unemployment situation report which was released three weeks ago.  Those numbers, showing that only 48% of the officially unemployed are receiving benefits, should make it clear that people do NOT need to be receiving unemployment insurance to be counted among the unemployed.  (This ratio and these two numbers are NOT seasonally adjusted.)

Extended Benefits (EB) Expire

Extended Benefits claims are expiring as only New York was eligible for Extended Benefits in the latest report.  Only 7.8%  of the number of people who were receiving Extended Benefits a year ago were receiving Extended Benefits for the week ending December 8th.  

New York has now triggered off of Extended Benefits, which means that all states have now "triggered" off of Extended Benefits.

As of the week ending December 8th, only 44,610 people were still receiving Extended Benefits.  As recently as late April, 350,579 people were receiving Extended Benefits.  A year ago, 571,848 people were receiving Extended Benefits.

In about seven months, 87% of the people who were receiving Extended Benefits are no longer receiving such benefits.  We do not know how many of these 306,000 people found jobs, how many have another source of income in the family, and how many have nothing. 

To reiterate, while a decrease in the number of people FILING for initial claims is a good thing and indicates that fewer people are being laid off, a decrease in the TOTAL number of people getting unemployment insurance may only show that fewer people are eligible for unemployment insurance benefits.

Any questions or confusion, please leave a comment or email me!