Mar BLS jobs +192,000, unemp rate same at 6.7%. New record in private jobs # Info HERE . Jobs since Obama took office? HERE Unemp. rate under Obama? HERE

Saturday, September 8, 2012

How Many Jobs Has Obama Created or Lost? (August 2012 update)



How Many Jobs Have Been Lost in the Past Year? (June 2013 update) 


How Many GOVERNMENT Jobs Lost or Created Under Obama? (Federal, State, Local breakdown)


How many jobs have been created in the last 4 years versus how many jobs have been lost?


Answer to the question above:  All numbers provided on monthly jobs reports, which is what the series on jobs created/lost under Obama is based, are NET jobs numbers.  In other words, they reflect gains after all job losses are subtracted, or they reflect job losses after all gains are added. 

For the past 40 months (as of June 2013), we have had NET gains in private jobs numbers every month.  In other words, in every month since February 2010, more private jobs have been created than have been lost.  In every month since September 2010, more jobs in total have been created than have been lost.


The following numbers are for August 2012.  
For latest reports and numbers, please click one of the links above.




How Many Government Jobs Has Obama Created or Lost?  Keep Reading.. Answer is Below


How many jobs created or lost under Obama?

How many private sector jobs have been lost or added during Obama's presidency?

Since the "trough" of the recession in late 2009/early 2010:

  • 4,056,000 MORE jobs in total
  • 4,628,000 MORE private sector jobs
  • 4,133,000 MORE people working 

Since Bush left office & Obama took office (January 2009):
  • 261,000 FEWER jobs in total
  • 86,000 FEWER people working
But:
  • 415,000 MORE private sector jobs

Since the stimulus was passed (# as of March 12, 2009): 
  • 1,262,000 MORE jobs in total
  • 1,927,000 MORE private sector jobs
  • 1,347,000 MORE people working

Since the beginning of Obama's first Fiscal Year (October 2009): 
  • 3,566,000 MORE jobs in total
  • 4,166,000 MORE private sector jobs
  • 3,326,000 MORE people working

Have any private jobs been lost (net) over the past 30 months?
NO!
  • 30 months of consecutive private-sector job growth.

Have any jobs been lost (net) over the past 23 months?
NO!
  • 23 months of consecutive over all job growth.

(Explanations and detail below.  Keep reading.)



How many jobs have been lost or gained during the Obama administration?  Have more new jobs been created or have more jobs been lost under Obama to date?   

Summary:  

We are in positive territory when we look at total jobs numbers, private jobs numbers, and people working compared to the "trough" of the jobs recession in late 2009/early 2010.

We are also in positive territory when we look at total jobs numbers, private jobs numbers, and people working compared to the start of Obama's first Fiscal Year in office which started October 1, 2009.

 
We are still in negative territory in terms of total jobs numbers and numbers of people working compared to the day Obama took office; however, we are in positive territory in private sector jobs.  


We are now adding jobs at a fair clip, with an average of 148,600 MORE jobs  total added per month since December 2010, and an average of  166,000 MORE jobs added per month in the private sector since December 2010.


Here's a summary of data from the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics).  All numbers lost to the "trough" of the recession reflect ALL non-farm jobs lost between the time Obama took office and the lowest point of the recession in late 2009/early 2010 :
(Note:  All of the jobs numbers are NET numbers.  In other words, we know that jobs are lost and added every month, in good years and in bad.  The numbers reported here, based on Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers, are "net" numbers; that is, the number of jobs gained after the number of jobs lost is subtracted, or the number of jobs lost after the number of jobs gained is added.)  
Seasonally adjusted:
  • All jobs lost from the time Obama took office to "trough" (bottom of recession): .....4,317,000
  • All jobs gained since "trough": ....4,056,000
Net LOSS in seasonally-adjusted jobs since Obama took office: .... 261,000                     

"Raw:" numbers not seasonally adjusted:
  • Jobs lost from the time Obama took office to trough: .....4,246,000                                                    
  • Jobs gained since "trough": .......5,783,000
Net GAIN in raw unadjusted jobs since Obama took office: ..... 1,537,000 

*Though, as of July 2012, we still had fewer jobs (in adjusted numbers) than when President Obama took office, jobs are being added at a faster clip under Obama than under George Bush at the same time in his presidency.  At this point in Bush's presidency (July 2004), there were still 978,000 fewer jobs than when he was inaugurated in January 2001 (compared to 316,000 fewer for Obama).  The number of jobs didn't eclipse the number when Bush was first inaugurated until February 2005, in Bush's second term.  (This will be updated for August in the next few days.)  

How many private sector jobs have been gained or lost since Obama took office?

Seasonally adjusted:
  • Private-sector jobs lost to "trough" (bottom of recession): .....4,212,000
  • Private-sector jobs gained since "trough": .....4,628,000
         
*(This is the number often used by Obama and the Democrats as the number of private jobs created since the "trough" of the recession .  It is a correct number, but it is a seasonally-adjusted number.  In "real" unadjusted numbers [the actual number of jobs that your family and neighbors have], there are 7,416,000 MORE private sector jobs than there were at the "trough" of the recession.)
  
Net GAIN in seasonally-adjusted private-sector jobs since Obama took office: ....415,000                      


"Raw:" numbers not seasonally adjusted: 
  • Private-sector jobs lost to "trough": .....4,151,000 
  • Private-sector jobs gained since "trough": .....7,416,000                      
Net GAIN in "raw" unadjusted private-sector jobs since Obama took office: .....3,265,000  

*Though, as of July 2012, we still had fewer private-sector jobs (in adjusted numbers) than when President Obama took office, jobs are being added at a faster clip under Obama than under George Bush at the same time in his presidency.  At this point in Bush's presidency (July 2004), there were still 1,749,000 FEWER private sector jobs than when he was inaugurated in January 2001 (compared to 332,000 MORE for Obama).  The number of private-sector jobs didn't eclipse the number when Bush was first inaugurated until June 2005, in Bush's second term.  (This number will be updated for August in a few days.)       


How many government jobs have been gained or lost since Obama took office?

Seasonally adjusted:
  • Government jobs lost from Obama's inauguration to "trough" (bottom of recession): .....105,000
  • Government jobs lost since "trough": .....574,000
  • The peak of government jobs since Obama was inaugurated, not counting Census 2010 workers, occurred in April 2009.  There were 21,675,000 government jobs that month.  That's 99,000 more government jobs than we had in January 2009.
  • Government jobs lost since that peak in April 2009:  775,000     
Net LOSS in seasonally-adjusted government jobs since Obama took office: ....676,000                      


"Raw:" numbers not seasonally adjusted: 
  • Government jobs lost to "trough": .....95,000 
  • Government jobs lost since "trough": .....1,633,000                       
Net LOSS in "raw" unadjusted government jobs since Obama took office: .....1,728,000

(Note:  All of my employment number reports are based on monthly reports and data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  Monthly numbers reports are based on the monthly Employment Situation Report.  The Employment Situation report includes month over month and year over year numbers of jobs and workers.  My analysis is taken from the monthly BLS data copied to an Excel spreadsheet every month.  I calculate detailed percentage increases/decreases, 3 month numbers, 2011 to date numbers, and I compare jobs numbers to those at the time of Obama's inauguration and at the "trough" of the recession.  As the BLS revises its numbers as new information is available, I use the latest available numbers in my monthly articles, which means that those numbers may differ slightly from numbers published in previous months.) 

5 comments:

  1. Do you have information on the variance of each point so we would be able to determine the statistical significance of the changes?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'll have to ask my statistician consultant for input on that one and get back to you over the weekend.

      Delete
    2. Actually there is more information at the BLS site on the statistical significance of these reports. The

      monthly employment report includes this paragraph:

      "Why are there two monthly measures of employment?

      The household survey and establishment survey both produce sample-based estimates of employment
      and both have strengths and limitations. The establishment survey employment series has a smaller
      margin of error on the measurement of month-to-month change than the household survey because of
      its much larger sample size. An over-the-month employment change of about 100,000 is statistically
      significant in the establishment survey, while the threshold for a statistically significant change in the
      household survey is about 400,000. However, the household survey has a more expansive scope than
      the establishment survey because it includes the self-employed, unpaid family workers, agricultural
      workers, and private household workers, who are excluded by the establishment survey. The household
      survey also provides estimates of employment for demographic groups."

      There is also more information about the reliability of the samples in the "Technical notes" section.

      Delete
  2. With so much emphasis on jobs lost/created, it seems the second part of the equation has been completely ignored by most, and here's a great example: I am making $12.65/hour. That sounds like a pretty decent hourly rate, right? Well, it is! The problem is that last year, I made just over $21k. Compare this to 2008, when I made over $22k earning $9/hour.

    The forcing of employees into working part-time by the companies they work for has helped to add a number of jobs, yes. But those jobs do not pay living wages. Net job loss/gain is just too deceptive a measure to rely on.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The BLS provides information on the average wages of non-supervisory and production people, also average number of hours worked. They also keep track of people working part-time who want to work full-time.

      The average weekly hours for all employees (including part-time workers) has been between 34.3 and 34.5. Before the recession this number was at 34.6 and 34.7. It dipped down into the 33's in 2009, but has been headed up for the past 2 years.

      The average weekly hours for production and non-supervisory employees is 33.7. This number peaked at 33.9 before the recession. It dipped down to 33.1 in 2009, but it has been headed up for the past two years.

      The number of people working part-time for economic reasons (They can't find full-time work or their hours have been cut to part-time) has been going down over the past two years. This number peaked at over 9,000,000 in late 2009, and it is now down to just about 8,000,000. ("Normal" would be about 4 to 5 million.)

      Now about wages: The average hourly wages of production and non-supervisory employees is now $19.61. It went down a bit during 2010, but it has now started back up. Unfortunately, it is not going up as fast as it was before the recession, but it has increased.

      So.. even after accounting for the things you mention, more people are working more hours for more money, and there is nothing deceptive about net job loss/gain as the other numbers are included, though not usually reported. But we have not yet gone back up to where we were in 2007.

      In terms of average wages compared to prior years and the rate of inflation, the American "average hourly earnings expressed in 1982-4 dollars" peaked in 1972. The average hourly wage in 1982-4 dollars is now $8.71. In 1972, it was $9.37. It dipped from the mid 70's until the mid 90's, then went up until 2008, when the recession began.

      Some parts of the country and people in different occupations have not recovered as quickly as people in other occupations and locations. Where do you live?

      Delete

I appreciate intelligent comments and questions, including those that are at odds with anything posted here. I have elected not to screen comments before they are published; however, any comments that are in any way insulting, caustic, or intentionally inflammatory will be deleted without notice. Spam will also be immediately deleted.