How Many Jobs Were Created in May 2012?

May 2015 Jobs News Highlights

All Jobs and Unemployment Reports For 2011 through 2015 Indexed HERE!

The following numbers are for May 2012.  For current numbers, please click one of the above links.

69,000 new jobs were created in the month of May 2012 (in seasonally adjusted numbers).

The private sector generated 82,000 new jobs, but the government sector continued to shed jobs, 15,000 jobs, in May 2012.  


422,000 more people reported themselves as working in May 2012. 
(The above are all seasonally-adjusted numbers.)

      

The unemployment rate increased one-tenth of one percent to 8.2%, increasing from 8.1% in April.  The unemployment rate has been under 8.4% every month this year.  Last year, the unemployment rate exceeded or was equal to 9.0% for 7 months out of the year.  The increase in the unemployment rate this month was due to people entering or re-entering the labor force. 


In terms of numbers, the civilian labor force (the people either working or actively looking for work) is at a new high of 155,007,000 people.  We have never had this many people in the civilian labor force before.  The labor force participation rate (the percent of people in the civilian non-institutional population 16+ who are either working or looking for work) edged up .2% (ten-tenths of a percent) to 63.8% this month. 

May Jobs Numbers Summary 2012

The following numbers are as of May 2012.  For Latest Numbers, please click HERE!

May Jobs Reports & Summaries:

• May Jobs Numbers: Terrible? Or Bad Seasonal Adjustments?
• How Many Jobs Has Obama Created or Lost? (May 2012 update)
• How Many Jobs Created or Lost in May 2012?
• Private & Govt Jobs Month by Month 2011 & 2012 (May Updates)
• Job Growth & Loss Year by Year Since 1999
• • What Was the Unemployment Rate When Obama Took Office? (May 2012 update)
• May summary:  A seemingly glum report with few new jobs and revisions downwards of the prior two months.  However, more people jumped into the labor market (labor force) and the total number of people reporting themselves as employed went up significantly.  
• Economy adds 69,000 jobs in May.  (This is a net number; in other words, this refers to the total number of jobs reported by employers.  69,000 more jobs were created than lost in May in seasonally adjusted numbers.) 
• Private employers add 82,000 jobs in May.  Manufacturing added 12,000 in May, but April manufacturing numbers were revised downwards by 6,000 jobs. 
• April jobs numbers were revised downwards by 49,000 total; April private sector numbers were revised downwards by 62,000.  
• Unemployment rate upticks slightly to 8.2% as 220,000 MORE people reported themselves as unemployed, and as about 642,000 MORE people reported themselves as in the labor force.  (Those people started looking for work.)  
• The brightest spot of this report is that 422,000 MORE people reported themselves as employed in May vs. April.  (However, this does conflict with the small increase in the number of jobs.)  
• Seasonal adjustments seem to be strange in this report.  In unadjusted "raw" numbers, 732,000 MORE people reported themselves as employed in May.  This increase adjusted to 422,000 MORE employed people.  (This makes sense as May is a hiring month.)  However, in unadjusted "raw" numbers, employers reported adding 789,000 new jobs, which is in line with the 732,000 people reporting themselves as employed.  However, the 789,000 new jobs adjusted down to only 69,000 new jobs in total.  Why are the seasonal adjustment factors between the Establishment (jobs) numbers and the CPS (household) numbers so skewed?  
• The number of people not in the labor force shrunk by 461,000, reinforcing the fact that many people jumped into the labor force in May.
• Unemployment among minorities and people without a high school education went up, but those unemployment rates are still lower than they were a year ago. 
• Unemployment among people with college degrees went down and now stands at 3.9%, one of the lowest rates for this group of people in three years.
• The number of people unemployed over 27 weeks went up, but it is still lower than the number of long-term unemployed in February 2012.
• The biggest decrease in the number of people who are unemployed occurred in the ranks of people who were unemployed 15-26 weeks.  There are 222,000 fewer people who report themselves as unemployed for 15-26 weeks.  
• The number of people who are unemployed because they permanently lost their jobs (vs. entering or re-entering the job market or being on temporary layoff) increased to 46.4% of the total unemployed, though this rate is still below what it was in February 2012.  
• Underemployment (U-6) rate went up to 14.8% (from 14.5%), but it is still below its levels of January 2012.
• Number of people working part-time who want full-time work increased by 245,000.  This is the second month in a row that this number has increased.
• Number of full-time workers decreased by about 266,000; number of part-time workers increased by about 618,000.  However, we do have about 2,000,000 MORE people working full-time than we did a year ago.
• • • ADP May Payroll Estimates: 133,000 New Private Jobs
• • How Many Jobs Lost Before Obama Took Office?

Latest Jobs Reports & Numbers HERE!

What Was the Unemployment Rate When Obama Took Office? (April 2012 update)

What Was the Unemployment Rate When Obama Took Office Compared to Now? (November 2015 update)

The following numbers are outdated.  For current numbers, please click the above link.

What was the unemployment rate when Bush left office and Obama was inaugurated? 7.8%

How high did it go?  10.0% 

What is today's (April 2012's) unemployment rate?   8.1%

How many people were looking for work when Obama was inaugurated, how many were working?  And how many people are looking for work and how many are employed now?
Keep reading!

Private job growth higher under Obama than Bush?

Click HERE for all published jobs reports and updates for 2011 - 2014 to date.  

Why Don't People Want Jobs?

The Unemployment Puzzle:  People Don't Want Jobs

Despite the continued high number of people who are among the long-term unemployed, we also have a record number of people who are not in the labor force and say that they do NOT want a job!

First of all, the Bureau of Labor Statistics asks people who are "not in the labor force" (unemployed and not actively looking for work) whether or not they "want a job".  About 93% of people who are "not in the labor force" say that they do NOT want a job!

The biggest conundrum in unemployment these days is the juxtaposition of these two sets of facts:

• People are exhausting (running out of) unemployment compensation and the average duration of unemployment is still very high.  This means that some people have been unemployed and looking for work in excess of two or three years, and perhaps have exhausted their unemployment benefits a year or even two years ago.  This must be causing a great deal of misery for those people who have exhausted their unemployment compensation, presumably gone through most or all of their savings, and may have NOTHING left in financial resources.  Right now, we still have 3,892,000 people who are officially unemployed and have been for more than 52 weeks!  
• But all numbers of unemployment and underemployment, including the official unemployment rate AND the number of people who "want a job", are DECLINING.  Yes, the Bureau of Labor Statistics does ask people who are not in the labor force (meaning that they are not actively looking for work) if they "want a job".  The number of people who are "discouraged" (meaning: 1. they looked for work in the past year but not in the past month, 2.  they are available for work.  3.  they did not look for work in the past month because they felt no jobs are available for them) is also declining.  Both the percentages and the numbers of people in these categories are declining.  Not only that, but the number of people who have been unemployed for 52 weeks or longer, while high, is also declining.  Last year, in March 2011, 4,430,000 people were unemployed over a year.  This year, in March 2012, 3,892,000 people were unemployed over a year.  At least 600,000 people who were unemployed (actively looking for work) a year ago are no longer looking for work this year.  Where did they go?    

Many people who notice that fewer people are "officially" unemployed claim that people are dropping out of the labor force (meaning that they are no longer actively looking for work and therefore not counted among the officially unemployed) because, while they still "want a job", they are terribly discouraged about finding work and they are no longer even looking for work.  (To be counted as officially unemployed, you need to be actively looking for work within the past four weeks.)    

But the numbers simply don't support this!  ALL numbers of unemployment and underemployment, including numbers of people who are "discouraged" and who "want a job" but aren't actively looking, are decreasing, as seen on this chart:

The number of people who "want a job" (green line) represent people who are officially "not in the labor force" because they haven't looked for work in the past month, but this is a subset of people who are "not in the labor force".  (Only about 7% of people not in the labor force claim to "want a job" now.) 

However, this number of people who "want a job" but haven't looked for work in the past month includes people who haven't looked for a job for over a year.  It also includes people who haven't looked for a job because they are ill, have family responsibilities, are in school, or are simply "not available to work now".  It also includes people who haven't looked for work recently because they are "discouraged" (red line) and believe there is no work available for them.  (Therefore, the red line people are a subset of the green line people.)

How Many with no Resources?

We really don't know how many people are out there with no resources, particularly compared to other years, such as 2005 or 2007.  As you can see from the chart, at the peak of the last economic cycle when jobs were still plentiful, in 2006 or 2007, we still had millions of people who were among the  unemployed; we still had hundreds of thousands of discouraged workers; we still had millions of people not in the labor force who "want a job".   

One thing that we can tell when we put all of these numbers together is that we don't really have a good idea as to what happens to people who exhaust their unemployment benefits.  One year ago there were 8,300,000 people collecting unemployment benefits (down from a peak of about 12,000,000 two years earlier), and now (March) there are about 6,800,000 people collecting benefits.  1,500,000 fewer people are collecting benefits.  We don't know how many of these people went back to work.  We know that, as we mentioned above, there is a DECREASE in the number of discouraged workers since last year (from 921,000 down to 865,000), and there is also a DECREASE in the number of people who "want a job" compared to last year (6,500,000 down to 6,299,000).  So people who are no longer collecting benefits aren't all looking for work, don't all want a job, and aren't filling the ranks of the "discouraged" workers.      


What has happened to the unemployed and the discouraged? 

Facebook groups and websites for the unemployed still attract many people who are miserable.. .and scared.  But other websites for the unemployed, particularly those aimed at 99ers (people who have exhausted all of their unemployment benefits) seem to have much less activity than they did a year or two ago, and it is unclear if that is meaningful or not.

So.. if the numbers of people who want a job, the numbers who are unemployed (whether short-term or long-term), the number of "discouraged" workers, the numbers of people working part-time who want full-time work have all decreased..  where did those people go?  The "buckets" that have increased are:  1.  The number of employed (including the number employed full-time) and 2.  The number of people who are not in the labor force and DO NOT WANT A JOB.


More people who DO NOT want a job...

We now have 2,490,000 MORE people who are NOT in the labor force and DO NOT want a job than we did a year ago.  (This is mostly due to the Baby Boomers retiring.)  This is an increase of about 3%.  Remember, these people tell the interviewers that they DO NOT want a job.  They are not dropping out of the labor force because they are so discouraged that they can't find work; they are dropping out of the labor force AND they DO NOT WANT A JOB.

More people who ARE working....

We now have 2,270,000 MORE people who are employed than we did a year ago.  (That's an increase of about 1.7%.)  There are studies that seem to show that, while we have more people back at work, many of these people are working at jobs that are below their skill level and many are working temporary, though full-time jobs.  But, nonetheless, they are working vs. dropping out of the labor market.

If you still have assets, you have a choice.

Which makes sense.  If you are in desperate need of money and you no longer have unemployment benefits, how do you survive?  You don't have a choice; if you can find a lousy job, you take it.  But if you no longer have a job and you no longer have unemployment benefits but you DO have assets, you DO have a choice:  Wouldn't you stop looking for work, drop out of the labor force, and scale back your retirement plans rather than take a lousy job, particularly if you are only a few years away from Social Security?  You might not be able to get hired for those lousy jobs anyway.    

Look for more information and a breakdown on the people "not in the labor force" later this week.

All information and numbers used come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics databases and tables and/or monthly employment situation reports.  Details provided upon request.

They're Lying! 20 Million People Lost Their Jobs in 2011!

How Many People Really Lost Their Jobs in 2011?

How Many Jobs Have Been Created or Lost in 2013 To Date?

Update for all of 2012 HERE: How Many People Lost Their Jobs in 2012?

All Jobs Reports (2011 to 2013) Indexed HERE!

Some will say:  "20 million people lost their jobs!  That's a huge number.  How can anybody say that we're making progress in employment?"

Well, we have to look at the number of people who were laid off compared to the number of people who were hired.. and compared to the number of people who quit:

How Many People Were Laid Off in 2011?  Yes, it's true:  20,041,000

How Many First Time Claims for Unemployment were filed in 2011?  21,688,000

How Many People Quit in 2011?   23,083,000

How Many People Were "Separated" from their work for all reasons in 2011?  46,980,000


So almost 47,000,000 people quit or lost their jobs in 2011.  But.....  

How Many People Were Hired in 2011?  48,416,000


One million more people were hired than people who quit or were laid off in 2011.

How Many New Jobs Were Added in 2011?  1,820,000 total net.

We know that there were a grand total of 1,820,000 jobs added in 2011; 2,091,000 were gained in the private sector, while 271,000 were lost in the government sector.  

We know that the unemployment rate fell from 9.4% in December 2010 to 8.5% in December 2011 (and 8.3% now, as of January 2012).  We know that, while 12,758,000 people are considered "officially unemployed" now, we also know that 1,300,000 FEWER people are reporting themselves as unemployed at the end of 2011, in December, vs. a year ago in December 2010.

But we also know that, in good times and in bad, in improving times and in deteriorating times, people are laid off and people are hired.  The unemployment rate goes down and the job numbers go up when the number of people getting hired exceeds the number of people getting laid off or quitting over a period of time.  The unemployment rate goes up and the job numbers go down when the number of people getting hired is lower than the number of people getting laid off or quitting over a period of time.

Latest Jobs & Unemployment Numbers & Reports HERE!

(Including Jobs Lost and Gained in 2011, 2012, 2013 month by month; jobs numbers year by year 1999, since Obama took office.) 

How Many People Were Laid Off in 2008?  

There was a NET loss of 3,603,000 jobs in 2008.  That is, over 3 million MORE people were laid off or quit than were hired.  

How Many Were Laid Off Compared to How Many Were Hired in 2011?

So let's look at how many people actually were laid off and how many were hired as reported to the Bureau of Labor Statistics and published on their JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) in 2011.  (I use the latest revisions, which are extracted from the Bureau of Labor Statistics databases.)  The number of 1st Time Unemployment Claims comes from the Weekly Department of Labor report.  It comes close but does not equal the number of people laid off because 1) It is a weekly report, and the Layoff numbers from JOLTS are monthly, 2) Not all people who are laid off apply for unemployment for various reasons.   3)  People who quit may apply for unemployment and collect in some circumstances.

Month	...# Laid off...	#1st Claims	# Quits.......	# Separations	# Hires...	#Job Openings
Jan	1,541,000	2,137,000	1,679,000	3,612,000	3,769,000	2,741,000
Feb	1,620,000	1,570,000	1,910,000	3,825,000	3,986,000	3,025,000
Mar	1,606,000	1,581,000	1,924,000	3,805,000	4,067,000	3,123,000
Apr	1,603,000	2,114,000	1,887,000	3,833,000	4,001,000	2,953,000
May	1,837,000	1,707,000	2,000,000	4,145,000	4,129,000	3,034,000
June	1,773,000	1,711,000	1,904,000	3,993,000	4,058,000	3,169,000
July	1,694,000	2,060,000	1,969,000	3,962,000	3,976,000	3,213,000
Aug	1,687,000	1,644,000	2,006,000	3,960,000	4,060,000	3,129,000
Sept	1,723,000	1,672,000	2,000,000	4,052,000	4,150,000	3,377,000
Oct	1,595,000	2,026,000	1,923,000	3,898,000	4,042,000	3,224,000
Nov	1,718,000	1,585,000	1,955,000	3,986,000	4,132,000	3,118,000
Dec	1,644,000	1,881,000	1,926,000	3,909,000	4,046,000	3,376,000
Total:	20,041,000	21,688,000	23,083,000	46,980,000	48,416,000	37,482,000

(January 2012 initial claims:  1,509,000 for four weeks or 377,500 a week 
compared to January 2011 initial claims:  2,137,000 for five weeks or 427,400 a week.)

Number of People Quitting Now Exceeds the Number Getting Laid Off

First of all, it should be evident that layoffs and initial claims have been coming down over the months.  The numbers popped up again in Spring, then continued downwards.  But more important than the number of layoffs going down is that the number of quits has gone up and now outpaces the rate of layoffs every month.  (This wasn't true in 2009 or in 2010.)  This means that companies can no longer count on employees not leaving.. that can only be good for the labor market as a whole. 


As a result of fewer layoffs and more people quitting, we now have more people getting hired than we have total "separations" ("Separations" are the total of people leaving an employer for all reasons, including being laid off, people quitting, people retiring, and "other".) 

Of the 48,000,000 hires that employers reported in 2011, in simple percentages, 41% were replacements for people laid off, 48% were replacements for people who quit, about 8% were replacements for people who left for "other" reasons (including retirement), and 3% represented expansion; that is, new employees, not replacements.

Things are moving in the right direction.

There is just no way that anyone can look at these numbers over the course of a year and see anything negative in them... other than we need more of the same at an accelerating pace.  We had about 5,000 new hires a month during the mid-2000's, and that is what we need to make a big dent in the unemployment rate.  

How Many Jobs Were Created in November 2011?

Latest (January & all 2011) Updates HERE!!

120,000 new jobs were created in the month of November 2011.

The private sector generated 140,000 new jobs, but the government sector continued to shed jobs, 20,000 jobs, in November 2011.


278,000 more people reported themselves as working in November 2011. 

          

The unemployment rate dropped four-tenths of one percent to 8.6%, declining from 9.0% in October.  The unemployment rate has exceeded or equaled 9.0% for 7 months this year.  The last time that the unemployment rate was at or below 8.6% was March 2009.  Though this is a big step in the right direction, much of the improvement in the unemployment rate this month was due to people dropping out of the labor force.  The size of the civilian labor force (consisting of people working and people actively looking for work) had been increasing for most of the this year. 

Alternate Unemployment Rate Decreases to 18.2% in October

Molly's Alternate Unemployment Rate Falls to 18.2% in October  2011 from 18.4% in September 2011. 


The decrease is due primarily to a 4% decrease in the number of people working part-time who want full-time work.  According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, there are 374,000 fewer involuntary part-time workers (people working part-time who want full-time work) in October 2011 over September 2011.  This number had been decreasing in the early months of the year; it then rose dramatically for two months, but now has decreased.  It is unclear if this is a trend or an aberration.  We'll have to wait until next month's numbers.  

*NEW*Private, government jobs gained and lost month by month 2011

             Latest (November) reports HERE!! 

Last month's analysis seemed to show that most of the new workers entering the labor force in the last few months were working part-time, but this month's data shows a reversal of that pattern, with a lower percentage of the employed work force working involuntarily part-time.  Again, we can't tell if a new pattern has been established or if this is an aberration.   


There has been a decrease of 2.6% in the number of people who "want to work" but have not actively looked for work in the past month.  In September, there were 6,241,000 in this group; now there are 6,403,000 in this group.  As the number of people "not in the labor force" (meaning not working or actively looking) was virtually the same in October as in September, this may mean that there are more people who are ready to enter the labor force: They are again "wanting a job" but haven't yet started actively looking.  That may be a good sign; it may mean that the population as a whole perceives that they can get jobs.  Again, it's unclear whether it is a trend or a monthly aberration. 

Molly's seasonally-adjusted alternate unemployment rate is 18.2% for October 2011. It is down two-tenths (.2%) of a percent from the 18.4% of September 2011.  

29,196,000, about 29 million people, are unemployed and want to work OR underemployed (working part-time and wanting full-time work) in October 2011. This is an decrease of 307,000 people from the 29,503,000 who were unemployed and/or  underemployed in September.

The details of Molly's alternate unemployment rate continue after the jump.

How Many Jobs Created in 2011 to date? (October update)

How many jobs were created in all of 2011, from December 2010 to October 2011?   1,256,000

How many private-sector jobs have been created in 2011?   1,529,000

Have jobs been lost in 2011?  NO.

Summary of Jobs Created in all of 2011

Latest (March & all 2011 & 2012) reports HERE! 

Private, government jobs gained and lost month by month 2011

• In seasonally adjusted numbers, 1,256,000 jobs have been created in 2011.  That's 126,000 jobs created per month in 2011.
• In "raw" unadjusted numbers, 1,522,000 jobs have been created in 2011.  That's 152,000 jobs created per month in 2011.
• In terms of total jobs and private-sector jobs, we have ONLY JOB GAINS in 2011.  

How many private-sector jobs were created in all of 2011, from December 2010 to October 2011?  Have private-sector jobs been created or  lost in 2011?

What was the Unemployment Rate When Obama Took Office? (October update)

What was the unemployment rate when Bush left office and Obama took office?  7.7%

How high did it go?  10.1% 

What is today's (October's) unemployment rate?   9.0%

How many people were looking for work when Obama was inaugurated, how many were working?  And how many people are looking for work and how many are employed now?   Keep reading!

Latest January update:  How Many Jobs Has Obama Lost or Gained?

Latest job numbers and reports for January & all of 2011 HERE!

The Unemployment Rate when Obama took office:

• For the record, when Obama took office in January 2009, the "official" unemployment rate in seasonally adjusted numbers was 7.7%, with 11,919,000 people reporting themselves as unemployed and actively looking.  142,221,000 people were working in January 2009. 
• In "raw" numbers not adjusted for seasonal variance, the unemployment rate was 8.5% with 13,009,000 people reporting themselves as unemployed and actively looking for work.  140,436,000 people were working in numbers not adjusted for seasonal variance.

The Unemployment Rate at its Peak: 

• At the "trough" (bottom in terms of jobs) of the recession in late 2009/early 2010, the "official" unemployment rate in seasonally adjusted numbers climbed to 10.1% in October 2009 with 15,612,000 people (out of a labor force of 153,854,000) reporting themselves as unemployed.   138,242,000 were working in October 2009; however, the lowest number of people working was reported in December 2009, when 137,792,000 people (in seasonally adjusted numbers) were working.    
• In "raw" numbers not adjusted for seasonal variance, the unemployment rate reached a peak of 10.6% in January 2010 with 16,147,000 (out of a labor force of 152,957,000) reporting themselves as unemployed and actively looking for work.  Only 136,809,000 were working (in "raw" unadjusted numbers) in January 2010.

The Unemployment Rate Now:

• Now, in October 2011, the "official" unemployment rate in seasonally adjusted numbers is at 9.0%, with 13,897,000 (out of a labor force of 154,198,000) unemployed and actively looking for work.  140,302,000 people are working now.  (Last month 140,025,000 were working.  This is an increase of 277,000 people working.) 

• In unadjusted "raw" numbers the unemployment rate is now 8.5%, a decline of .3% (three-tenths of a percent) since September.  In "raw" real numbers, 13,102,000 (out of a labor force of 154,088,000) are unemployed and actively looking for work.  140,987,000 are working now in "raw" numbers unadjusted for seasonal variation.  (This is an increase of 485,000 people working.)

To Summarize the Unemployment Rate Now Compared to When Obama Took Office:

• Using seasonally adjusted numbers, the unemployment rate was 7.7% (and rising quickly) when Obama took office, and it is 9.0% today.   11,919,000 were officially unemployed back then, and 13,897,000 are unemployed today.  
• Using nonseasonally adjusted numbers, the unemployment rate was already 8.5% when Obama took office, and it is 8.5% today.   13,009,000 were officially unemployed back then, and 13,102,000 are officially unemployed now. 

Has the U.S. gained or lost jobs since Obama took office? An Explanation

Have we gained or lost jobs since Bush left office and Obama was inaugurated?  Keep reading...

For the latest unemployment/jobs numbers, please click HERE!!


The following links refer to September 2011 numbers.   For current information, please click the link above.

*******************************************************

Current Updates with September jobs numbers:

Latest Update:  How Many Jobs Has Obama Created or Lost?

What was the Unemployment Rate When Obama Took Office?

How Many Jobs Were Created in September 2011?

How Many New Jobs Have Been Created in 2011 To Date?

What was the Unemployment Rate When Bush Left Office? (The Controversy)  

Private and government jobs gained or lost under Obama? 

Alternate Unemployment Rate Increases to 18.4% 

Seasonal Adjustments to Jobs Numbers: An Explanation 

************************** 

This is the most common question asked of this blog, and one of the trickiest to answer.  It would be great to have one number, one simple number that answered that question.  But we don't.  If you want an answer to this question, check this link for the latest numbers: Has the US Gained or Lost Jobs Since Obama Took Office? -- but you may wish to continue reading for some background and explanation.


Here are the difficulties encountered in answering the question of whether or not we have gained or lost jobs since President Obama was inaugurated:

1.  First of all, we were losing jobs at an extreme rate when Obama was inaugurated.  In seasonally-adjusted (Explanation HERE) non-farm payroll numbers, over two and a half million jobs were lost in the five months before Obama took office.  Over five hundred thousand jobs a month were lost.  Nobody could possibly have expected that kind of job loss to immediately end,

As it was, it took about a year before we stopped shedding jobs and started adding jobs.  So, in asking whether or not we lost jobs under Obama, do we count the blood bath in jobs that continued for a year after Obama was elected?  During the Great Depression, unemployment reached its peak during the year after Roosevelt was elected; no matter what a President does, a very deep recession will take some time from which to recover, and unemployment recovers after the GDP recovers  

Therefore, I provide numbers both from January 2009, the time that Obama took office, and from the "trough" of the recession, which occurred in early 2010.


It is up to the reader to determine which set of numbers he/she wishes to use.

2.  To further complicate the matter, two different but complementary reports are released monthly in the same news release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  One is the Establishment or Non-Farm Payroll Report which gives us the Jobs gained or lost numbers; the other is the "Current Population (or Household) Survey" which gives us the monthly Unemployment Rate and provides the number of workers.:

A.  What is the Payroll report that is released and reported monthly?

• The monthly "jobs" numbers that we hear about on the news are taken from the "Establishment Survey" in which a statistical sample of many employment "establishments" is used to determine whether or not non-agricultural employers have added or decreased jobs during the previous month.  A detailed explanation of the Establishment Survey is found HERE.  The report is sometimes called the "Non-Farm Payroll Report", the "Employment Report", or the "Employer's Report".  It's the same thing, but it is NOT the same thing as the "Current Population Report" or the "Unemployment Numbers Report".
• The increase or decrease in monthly jobs that we hear about is the seasonally-adjusted number of jobs.  A non-adjusted number of jobs is also reported.  I describe that HERE and talk about the differences between the two numbers.
• The Establishment Survey is also used to assess jobs loss or gain by industry group and by private or government employers.  Military personnel and employees of the CIA, NSA, National Imagery and Mapping Agency, and the Defense Intelligence Agency are excluded from the Establishment Survey.
• Sole proprietors, the unincorporated self-employed, unpaid volunteer or family workers, farm workers, and domestic workers are also excluded.

B.  Does the unemployment rate come from the monthly jobs report?

• No.  As mentioned above, the monthly Employment Situation Report which is released by the BLS consists of reports from two sources.  The second part of the Employment Situation Report is the Current Population Survey, the survey of people and workers, and that is the report from which the unemployment rate is calculated.
• The Current Population Survey is based on a survey sample of 60,000 households in the United States. Statistical samples are used for almost every number out there, as it is not possible to count every person in the United States. We only attempt to count every person in the United States every ten years, in the decennial Census. 
• The Current Population Survey, which is conducted monthly, is used to determine how many people are working, how many are looking for work, how many are working part-time, full-time, multiple jobs, etc.  From that data, the monthly unemployment rate is calculated.  Details about how the government counts people and what questions are asked of the sample can be found HERE.
• The "official" monthly unemployment rate, called the U-3 rate, is determined by dividing the number of people looking for work by the number of people in the labor force.  The number of people in the labor force is the total of people working who are over 16 and the total of people actively looking for work (in the last four week) who are over 16.
• I have written more about "How the Unemployment Rate is Calculcated" HERE.  
• I also calculate a monthly alternate unemployment rate HERE.

3.  All numbers, both the jobs and the unemployment/employment numbers are presented both with seasonal adjustments and with "raw" data not adjusted for seasonal variation.  I explain the concept behind "seasonal variations" HERE.  

I present most of my numbers in both seasonally adjusted and "raw" unadjusted numbers.  In most cases, the seasonally adjusted numbers are more relevant.