AUG#: +130,000 jobs.

Unemployment up at 3.7%...AUG jobs under Trump HERE

Friday, November 11, 2011

Who Pays Taxes and How Much?

Tax Foundation Data shows who pays taxes and who doesn't.

The Tax Foundation (which does have a conservative bent) released its analysis of federal income taxes for 2009 a few weeks ago.  It is based on individual tax returns that have been filed which have a positive AGI (Adjusted Gross Income); that is, a positive gross income after adding wages, capital gains, dividends, rent, royalty, and income from businesses, but also subtracting small business losses and investment losses.

Federal income taxes collected from individuals have declined about 22% since 2007.

The total percentage of individual taxes paid as a percentage of Adjusted Gross Income (AGI) continued to decline, which is one of the reasons for our increasing budget deficit:  The effective tax rate for individual tax returns is  lower than it has been in decades.  In 2009, the average tax paid was 11.1% of AGI (Table 8, bottom left), in 2008, it was 12.24% of AGI.  In 1980 this number was 15.3%; in the Reagan years, 13 to 14%; in the Clinton years, 13 to 14%, with a peak of 15.26% in 2000.  This number was mostly in the 12% range in the Bush II years.  (again, Table 8, left column).  

The Adjusted Gross Incomes of Americans as a whole went down in 2009, the worst year of the recession, so the Federal government was collecting a lower percent of income from a smaller tax base.  2007 was the recent peak:  We collected 12.68% from a collective Adjusted Gross Income of $8,799,000,000 (That's almost 9 trillion dollars in Adjust Gross Income.)  That comes out to about $1.1 trillion in revenues from individual tax returns.   In 2009, we collected 11.06% from $7,825,000,000 (almost 8 trillion in Adjusted Gross Income.)  That comes out to about  $865 billion in revenues in 2009.  This is a decrease of about 251 billion (about 22%) from the revenue collected 2007.  

How much do the wealthiest among us really pay in income taxes?

Let's look at the various income groups in this report:  First of all, the top income earners among us will complain that they pay much more than their "fair share" in taxes:  The top 1% (family incomes over $343,000 in 2009) earn about 17% of the total income in Adjusted Gross Income in this country, while they pay about 37% of the federal income taxes in total.  Meanwhile, the bottom 50% earn 13.5% and pay only 2.25% of the federal income taxes in total.  It's a good talking point and it sounds as if those top earners are getting socked compared to those bottom-feeding 50%.     

If you take it up to the top 5% it sounds even worse:  The top 5% of filers (family incomes over $155,000 in 2009) earn 32% of the money, while they pay 59% of the taxes!  The bottom 95% of filers pay only 41% of the taxes!  I guess the whole bottom 95% are bottom feeders of some sort.

How much do families really have to live on?

But let's look at what those numbers really mean:  The top 1% of families, with incomes over $343,000, pay an average of 24% in federal income taxes.  That means a family right on the cutoff with an income of $350,000 pays about $84,000 in federal income taxes, leaving them $266,000 in after-federal tax income (not counting FICA, state and local taxes) on which to live.  

A family at the 50% mark, with an income of $33,000, pays somewhere about 6%, or about $2,000 in federal income taxes.  They are left with $31,000 with which to pay FICA, state and local taxes, shelter, food, transportation, utilities.  (A family with two earners working full-time making minimum wage would make just about $33,000.)  

Would you rather live on $31K a year after federal taxes or $266K a year after federal taxes?

Let's be honest, rich guys:  Would you really rather be that $33,000 family paying less than $2000 in federal taxes and trying to pay everything else with $31,000?  Or that top 1% who has a mere $266,000 with which to pay everything else?      

The wealthy do pay federal income taxes at a higher rate than "average earners".

Another important point:  The top income earners do pay federal income taxes, and they do pay a higher rate on average than most "average working" people.  Many people concerned with income inequality believe that the wealthiest among us pay no federal income taxes, which is generally not true.  But, even with an effective tax rate of 24% for the wealthiest compared to 2% for the poorest, the top wage earners have so, so much more income than most of the rest of us.   

Here's the link to the Tax Foundation data, which is based on IRS data.  Read through the report yourself.  Notice the tone of the report, and notice some of the things that aren't said:  1.  The bottom 50% of tax filers are trying to live on $32,000 a year or less.  2.  A family income of $66,000 puts you in the top 25% of families in the US in 2009!  3. Though the concern of the Tax Foundation is taxes and the idea that the wealthiest among us are paying more than their fair share, the most obvious thing about the data that is presented isn't tax inequity-- It's income inequality.  

A Historical Look at Income Inequality


Since 1980:

  • The Adjusted Gross Income of all tax returns increased 225%.  
  • For the top 1%, the AGI increased 549%.  
  • For the top 50%, 241%. 
  • For the bottom 50%, the AGI increased 147%. 


But 2009 was a bad year for the wealthiest among us.  According to the Tax Foundation:  "In 2009, the top 1 percent of tax returns paid 36.7 percent of all federal individual income taxes and earned 16.9 percent of adjusted gross income (AGI), compared to 2008 when those figures were 38.0 percent and 20.0 percent, respectively."  Let's see what a bad year looks like for the wealthy in the US:

In 2009, that "bad" year for the wealthy:

  • The AGI on the average tax return was about $56,710.  
  • The average AGI for those in the top one-tenth of one percent was $4,420,290.  
  • The average AGI for those in the top 1% was $960,869.  
  • The average AGI for those in the top 50% was $98,128.  
  • The average AGI for those in the bottom 50% was $15,291.  
Look at that last number again:  The top 50% of individual income tax returns, with thanks to the top 1%, averaged $98,128.  The bottom 50% of individual tax returns averaged $15,291.  And there are plenty of people out there who don't need to file because they don't have enough income. 


Other tax commentary here: 45% of Filers Pay No Taxes!

Tomorrow I will compare the average tax rates with the average AGI's at various income levels, and we will see if the wealthiest among us are indeed treated unfairly by our tax code.  (Yes, a bit of sarcasm there.) 

Thanks again to the conservative Tax Foundation for putting all of these numbers together and providing a spreadsheet to download.     
           
Notes:  This report is based on individual income tax forms.  It doesn't include people who don't need to file, who are among the oldest and the poorest in our country.  I believe, however, that it does include young people, still dependents on their parents' taxes who work part-time or summer jobs and need to file individual tax returns to get a refund of income taxes paid by their employers.  It also reflects family income in terms of people who are legally allowed to file together (husband and wife, for instance, and a single parent with children).  It doesn't include households who are not legally allowed to file together (unmarried couples living together who share household expenses). The "Adjusted Gross Income" excludes capital losses, carry overs, and other such techniques which allow usually wealthier people to offset or write off some income.  The Adjusted Gross Income does not include many government benefits which allow poorer people to survive.
Therefore, this is not a perfect collection of data, but nonetheless, very useful, particularly for comparative purposes.

Tuesday, November 8, 2011

Alternate Unemployment Rate Decreases to 18.2% in October

Molly's Alternate Unemployment Rate Falls to 18.2% in October  2011 from 18.4% in September 2011. 


The decrease is due primarily to a 4% decrease in the number of people working part-time who want full-time work.  According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, there are 374,000 fewer involuntary part-time workers (people working part-time who want full-time work) in October 2011 over September 2011.  This number had been decreasing in the early months of the year; it then rose dramatically for two months, but now has decreased.  It is unclear if this is a trend or an aberration.  We'll have to wait until next month's numbers.  




Last month's analysis seemed to show that most of the new workers entering the labor force in the last few months were working part-time, but this month's data shows a reversal of that pattern, with a lower percentage of the employed work force working involuntarily part-time.  Again, we can't tell if a new pattern has been established or if this is an aberration.   


There has been a decrease of 2.6% in the number of people who "want to work" but have not actively looked for work in the past month.  In September, there were 6,241,000 in this group; now there are 6,403,000 in this group.  As the number of people "not in the labor force" (meaning not working or actively looking) was virtually the same in October as in September, this may mean that there are more people who are ready to enter the labor force: They are again "wanting a job" but haven't yet started actively looking.  That may be a good sign; it may mean that the population as a whole perceives that they can get jobs.  Again, it's unclear whether it is a trend or a monthly aberration. 

Molly's seasonally-adjusted alternate unemployment rate is 18.2% for October 2011. It is down two-tenths (.2%) of a percent from the 18.4% of September 2011.  

29,196,000, about 29 million people, are unemployed and want to work OR underemployed (working part-time and wanting full-time work) in October 2011. This is an decrease of 307,000 people from the 29,503,000 who were unemployed and/or  underemployed in September.

The details of Molly's alternate unemployment rate continue after the jump.

Private & Govt Jobs Lost Gained Under Obama (October update)




The following numbers are those of October 2011.  For current numbers, please click one of the above links.


How many jobs (total, private, and government) have been lost or gained since Obama was inaugurated?  
  • 4,303,000 jobs (in seasonally adjusted numbers) were LOST in TOTAL from the time Obama took office until the "trough" of the recession in early 2010.  That's a decrease of 3.2%. 
  • 2,270,000 jobs (in seasonally adjusted numbers) were CREATED from the "trough" of the recession until now, October 2011.  That's an increase of 1.8%.
  • In total, 2,033,000  jobs (in seasonally adjusted numbers) were LOST from the time Obama took office until now, October 2011.  That's a decrease of 1.5%. 
  • We have experienced 13 months WITHOUT job losses since September 2010.  We have ADDED 1,672,000 jobs during those 13 months. 






How many PRIVATE sector jobs have been lost or gained since Obama was elected?
  • 4,189,000 private-sector jobs (in seasonally adjusted numbers) were LOST from the time Obama took office until the "trough" of the recession in early 2010.  That's a decrease of 3.8%.
  • 2,765,000 private-sector jobs (in seasonally adjusted numbers) were GAINED OR CREATED from the "trough" of the recession until now, October, 2011.  That's an increase of 2.6%.
  • In total,1,424,000 private sector jobs (in seasonally adjusted numbers) were LOST from the time Obama took office until now, October 2011.  That's a net decrease of 1.3%. 
  • We have experienced 20 months of positive private-sector job GROWTH from February 2010 until October 2011.  We have added 2,765,000 private-sector jobs during those 20 months.    

How many GOVERNMENT jobs have been lost or gained since Obama was elected?
  • 114,000 government jobs (in seasonally adjusted numbers) were LOST from the time Obama took office until the "trough" of the recession in early 2010.  That's a decrease of  .5%  (half of a percent). 
  • 495,000 government jobs (in seasonally adjusted numbers) were LOST from the "trough" of the recession until now, October, 2011.  That's a decrease of 2.2%.
  • In total, 609,000 government jobs (in seasonally adjusted numbers) were LOST from the time Obama took office until now, October 2011.  That's a decrease of 2.7%. 
  • We have experienced decreases in the number of government jobs in 16 out of the last 17 months, starting in June 2010, when 2010 Census workers began to be laid off.  
(Note:  All of my employment number reports are based on monthly reports and data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  Monthly numbers reports are based on the current monthly Employment Situation Report.  Historical numbers are taken from various archived Employment Situation reports as indexed HERE.  The Employment Situation report includes month over month and year over year jobs numbers.  My analysis is taken from the monthly BLS data copied to an Excel spreadsheet every month.  I calculate detailed percentage increases/decreases, 3 month numbers, 2011 to date numbers, and I compare jobs numbers to those at the time of Obama's inauguration and at the "trough" of the recession.  Specifics will be provided upon request; please email me or leave a comment.)

Friday, November 4, 2011

How Many Jobs Created in 2011 to date? (October update)

How many jobs were created in all of 2011, from December 2010 to October 2011?   1,256,000
How many private-sector jobs have been created in 2011?   1,529,000
Have jobs been lost in 2011?  NO.






  • In seasonally adjusted numbers, 1,256,000 jobs have been created in 2011.  That's 126,000 jobs created per month in 2011.
  • In "raw" unadjusted numbers, 1,522,000 jobs have been created in 2011.  That's 152,000 jobs created per month in 2011.
  • In terms of total jobs and private-sector jobs, we have ONLY JOB GAINS in 2011.  
How many private-sector jobs were created in all of 2011, from December 2010 to October 2011?  Have private-sector jobs been created or  lost in 2011?

How Many Jobs Were Created in October 2011?


How Many Jobs Were Created in October 2013?

All jobs reports (2011 through 2013) indexed HERE.


This report is for October 2011.  For current numbers, click one of the above links. 


80,000 new jobs were 
created in the month of October 2011.


The private sector generated 104,000 new jobs, but the government sector continued to shed jobs, 24,000 jobs, in October 2011.


277,000 more people reported themselves as working in October 2011. 



The unemployment rate dropped one-tenth of one percent to 9.0% after sitting at 9.1% for three months.  This marks 7 months in a row that the unemployment rate has equaled or exceeded 9%.  Though this is significantly better than last year, when the unemployment rate exceeded 9.4% all year, a continued unemployment rate of 9.0% or above does not represent any kind of robust jobs recovery. 

How Many Jobs Has Obama Created, Lost? (October update)




The following are October numbers.  Please select a link above for current (May 2012) numbers.


How has Obama done on jobs?  2,270,000 gained since "trough" of recession.


How many jobs have been lost or gained during the Obama administration?  Have more new jobs been created or have more jobs been lost under Obama to date?  Still in negative jobs territory in net jobs gained/lost. 
Breakdown of private and government jobs lost and gained?  HERE!

These questions will be answered.  Keep reading!  
        
Summary of October jobs activity: 

Jobs increased 80,000 in total in October 2011 (vs. an increase of 103,000 in September). Private sector jobs continued to increase while government sector jobs continued to decrease. Private sector jobs increased by 104,000 (vs. 134,000 in September), while government jobs decreased by 24,000 (vs. a decrease of 34,000 in September).  

Is it true that over 2 million private sector jobs have been created in the Obama administration as the Democrats claim?

(Summary of gross and net jobs activity since Obama was inaugurated is below the jump---  Keep reading!)

What was the Unemployment Rate When Obama Took Office? (October update)

What was the unemployment rate when Bush left office and Obama took office?  7.7%

How high did it go?  10.1% 
What is today's (October's) unemployment rate?   9.0%

How many people were looking for work when Obama was inaugurated, how many were working?  And how many people are looking for work and how many are employed now?   Keep reading!

The Unemployment Rate when Obama took office:
  • For the record, when Obama took office in January 2009, the "official" unemployment rate in seasonally adjusted numbers was 7.7%, with 11,919,000 people reporting themselves as unemployed and actively looking.  142,221,000 people were working in January 2009. 
  • In "raw" numbers not adjusted for seasonal variance, the unemployment rate was 8.5% with 13,009,000 people reporting themselves as unemployed and actively looking for work.  140,436,000 people were working in numbers not adjusted for seasonal variance.


The Unemployment Rate at its Peak: 
  • At the "trough" (bottom in terms of jobs) of the recession in late 2009/early 2010, the "official" unemployment rate in seasonally adjusted numbers climbed to 10.1% in October 2009 with 15,612,000 people (out of a labor force of 153,854,000) reporting themselves as unemployed.   138,242,000 were working in October 2009; however, the lowest number of people working was reported in December 2009, when 137,792,000 people (in seasonally adjusted numbers) were working.    
  • In "raw" numbers not adjusted for seasonal variance, the unemployment rate reached a peak of 10.6% in January 2010 with 16,147,000 (out of a labor force of 152,957,000) reporting themselves as unemployed and actively looking for work.  Only 136,809,000 were working (in "raw" unadjusted numbers) in January 2010.


The Unemployment Rate Now:
  • Now, in October 2011, the "official" unemployment rate in seasonally adjusted numbers is at 9.0%, with 13,897,000 (out of a labor force of 154,198,000) unemployed and actively looking for work.  140,302,000 people are working now.  (Last month 140,025,000 were working.  This is an increase of 277,000 people working.) 
  • In unadjusted "raw" numbers the unemployment rate is now 8.5%, a decline of .3% (three-tenths of a percent) since September.  In "raw" real numbers, 13,102,000 (out of a labor force of 154,088,000) are unemployed and actively looking for work.  140,987,000 are working now in "raw" numbers unadjusted for seasonal variation.  (This is an increase of 485,000 people working.)

To Summarize the Unemployment Rate Now Compared to When Obama Took Office:
  • Using seasonally adjusted numbers, the unemployment rate was 7.7% (and rising quickly) when Obama took office, and it is 9.0% today.   11,919,000 were officially unemployed back then, and 13,897,000 are unemployed today.  
  • Using nonseasonally adjusted numbers, the unemployment rate was already 8.5% when Obama took office, and it is 8.5% today.   13,009,000 were officially unemployed back then, and 13,102,000 are officially unemployed now.