Who are Those People "Not in Labor Force"?

Breaking down the "Not in the Labor Force" pie:

Who are those 93 Million People "Not Working" (not in the Labor Force)? Early 2015 update

As usual, whenever the unemployment rate ticks down, the naysayers will point out--- with alarm--- the increasing number of people who are "not in the labor (work) force". The assumption seems to be that the job situation is so miserable that people are dropping out of the labor force by the droves.

Are people really dropping out of the labor force?

Well... "dropping out" of the labor force for whatever reason, including  despair of not finding a job, is not the definition of "not in the labor force".  Read below the graph.

The reality is different.  Considering all of the hullabaloo about "people dropping out of the labor force", this chart may surprise you:

Why are People "Not in the Labor Force" (as of April 2012)?  (Link at top of page to more recent pie chart.)

How do you get to be "not in the labor force"?   What does it mean to be "not in the labor force"?  What is the definition of "not in the labor force"? 

People "not in the labor force" first of all, have to be in the "civilian non-institutional population age 16+";  in other words:

• At least age 16, 
• Not in the military,
• Not in prison, not in a nursing home or similar institution.
• There is no upper age limit to the civilian non-institutional population age 16+, so 85 year old grandmas would be counted as "not in the labor force" if they live at home or with family. 

To be "not in the labor force", people are not employed  at all, not full time, not part time, not self-employed.  They can also not be actively searching for work.  If they have been actively searching for work in the past four weeks, they are considered to be "unemployed".  (If a person is unemployed, "actively searching for work" according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, they have made at least one attempt to find work in the prior four weeks through such means as submitting an application, going for an interview, or talking to a potential employer.)

Let's repeat this:  

• People in the civilian non-institutional population who are actively, officially unemployed are IN the labor force.
• People in the civilian non-institutional population who are employed (full-time, part-time, self-employed) are IN the labor force.
• All other people in the civilian non-institutional population are NOT IN the labor force.

How do people "drop out of the labor force"?

They stop working and/or they stop looking for work.  There are a few exceptions:  People who are on temporary layoff from their jobs are in the labor force and are counted as unemployed.  People who are ill or on vacation but have a job and intend to return to work ARE in the labor force and are counted as employed.

People may leave the labor force if they quit their jobs to stay home with their children, if they become disabled and cannot work, if they retire.  Also young people in high school or college may not be working and may not be looking for work while they are enrolled in school.        

But "dropping out of the labor force" is not necessarily the same as being "not in the labor force".  When young people turn 16 years old, unless they have a job or are actively looking for a job, they are "not in the labor force" by definition.  Since they never were in the labor force, they haven't dropped out.

Also assuming that people who leave the labor force do so because they are in despair about not finding a job is a very bad, very misleading assumption, as you will see at the bottom of this page in the discussion of labor market "flows".      


What about all of those people dropping out of the labor force in April 2012?
 
Last month, April 2012, the unemployment rate fell to 8.1%, with 12,500,000 people actively looking for work.  Though the number of unemployed people fell, the total number of people employed also fell in April.  As a result, there are about 300,000 fewer people "in the labor force" (either employed or actively looking for work) in April.

Now, any monthly variation should be taken with a grain of salt.  As it is, we have over 2,300,000 more people employed than we did a year ago and about 1,300,000 fewer people officially unemployed.  The labor force (work force) as a whole is about 1,000,000 people larger than it was a year ago.

In any event, as the size of the labor force decreased in April, and the number of people "not in the labor force" increased to 88,879,000, the Republicans and other critics jumped upon this increase to surmise that all of these people are leaving the labor force in some stage of misery, discouraged because they cannot find work.  They use this number, the number of people "not in the labor force" as evidence of some kind of "failure" on the part of President Obama.      

What we know and don't know about people "not in the labor force"


First, we have no idea WHY most people are not in the labor force; that is, we don't know why someone stopped working, is no longer looking for work,  or never worked or looked for work, which is the definition of  "not in the labor force". Did they retire? Go to school? Stay home with a baby? Become disabled? Did they stop looking for work because they gave up on finding work?       Are they independently wealthy and don't need to work? 

We DO know, however, how many people not in the labor force (who aren't working or actively looking for work) "want a job", and we have some figures on why those people who "want a job" have not looked for work in the past month. We also have a good idea about how many might be so discouraged that they decided to stop looking for work.  We know more about the 16-24 year old crowd and how many of them are or are not still in school.  

People Age 55+ 

Yep, that big green piece of pie on the chart above represents 45,800,000 people who are 55+ years of age and claim that they DO NOT want a job.  That is over half of the 88,900,000 people in the "civilian non-institutional population age 16+" who are "not in the labor force". 

Notice the relatively tiny slivers of people in this age bracket who want a job but have not looked in the past year (bright pink sliver), and the even smaller sliver of people in this age bracket who want a job and HAVE  actually looked for work in the past year (yellow sliver).  Over all, 53% of the people not in the labor force are 55 or over.  That's 47,400,000 out of 88,900,000.  To repeat, of the 47,400,000 people 55+ and over not in the labor force, 45,800,000, or 96.7%, say that they DO NOT want a job.  As we said above, over half of the people NOT in the LABOR FORCE are in that one big bucket.

People Aged 25-54

We know less and can surmise less about the 25-54 year olds who are not in the labor force.  Again very few of them "want a job" when compared to the people in this age group who DO NOT "want a job".  We can assume that many in this group are people are home with children, but we don't know this from any statistics provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

We know that there are about 23,244,000 people aged 25 to 54 who are not in the labor force and that most of them, 20,613,000 (88.7%) do NOT want a job.  Those people are represented by the aqua blue pie piece.  The smaller slivers of pie represent people who are not in the labor force but want a job and HAVE looked for work within the past year (coral sliver of pie) and people who are not in the labor force but want a job who HAVE NOT looked for work in the past year (silver sliver of pie).  


People Aged 16 - 24


The Bureau of Labor Statistics includes people who are 16 or over, not in the military, and not institutionalized as part of the "civilian non-institutional population".  This includes young people in high school and college.  


It should not be surprising that a very low percentage of these young people,  47%, are "in the labor force"; that is, they are either employed or actively looking for work.  Also, most people in this age group who are "in the labor force" are either working part-time or looking for part-time vs. full-time work.  Very few teenagers who say they want work want full-time work.  


The overwhelming majority of people who are "not in the labor force" in this age group are people who are in school (red piece of pie).  A much smaller population is not in school and not in the labor force (blue piece of pie).  In this group of people who are not in school and not in the labor force, women outnumber men about 2 to 1, so we can assume that at least some of these people are not in the labor force because they are tending young children.  


The Civilian Labor Force numbers

There are 242,784,000 people in the "civilian non-institutional population 16+" in this country in April 2012.  153,905,000 are in the civilian work force, meaning they are either employed or actively looking for work.  88,879,000 are "not in the labor force" meaning they are NOT employed or earning money through labor and they haven't looked for work in the past month, though they may have been employed or looked for work in the past year.  (The numbers used in this graph are seasonally unadjusted "raw" numbers.)    


Breakdown of those "Not in the Labor Force"
 
The pie represents the breakdown of the 88,879,000 people not in the labor force:

Age 16 - 24:  18,216,000 people

• In school:  14,777,000  (red piece of pie - 16.6% of pie)
• Not in school:  3,439,000 (blue piece of pie - 3.9% of pie)
• (Note:  Some of both groups want a job (2,113,000 in total), with 1,048,000 having looked in the past year.  This is not broken down on the pie chart above.) 

Age 25 - 54:  23,244,000 people

• DO NOT want a job:  20,613,000 (aqua blue piece of pie - 23.2% of pie)
• Say they want a job but HAVE NOT looked in the past year:  1,281,000 (silver piece of pie - 1.4% of pie)
• Want a job and HAVE LOOKED in the past year:  1,350,000 (coral piece of pie - 1.5% of pie)

Age 55+:  47,419,000 people

• DO NOT want a job:  45,836,000 (green piece of pie - 51.6% of pie)
• Say they want a job but HAVE NOT looked in the past year:  939,000 (yellow piece of pie - 1.1% of pie)  
• Want a job and HAVE LOOKED in the past year:  644,000 (pink piece of pie - 0.7% of pie)  

Labor Force "Flows"
The labor force is very volatile.  Millions of people are hired, fired, or quit their jobs every month.  Millions join and leave the labor force every month.  The monthly jobs reports use "net" numbers, so the number of people employed this month, for instance, is equivalent to the number of people who were working in the last month PLUS the number of people who were hired in the last month MINUS the number of people who were "separated" (quit, laid off, fired, retired) in the last month.  When we have more people hired than people who quit, were laid off, or retired, we have INCREASES in jobs and employment.  When we have more people who quit, are laid off, or retired than we have people who were hired, we have DECREASES in jobs and employment.
The "flows" reports tell us how many people moved from employed to unemployed or "not in the labor force" to employed every month.  In April 2012, 3,966,000 people who were employed in March left their jobs and are not looking for other jobs.  Retired?  Disabled?  Taking a temporary break from employment?  We really don't know, but we do know that they had a job and now they aren't even looking for work.  Despair?  If they aren't looking for work?  Hardly likely.  Meanwhile, this group is offset by 3,565,000 people who were not in the labor force in March who looked and found jobs.  We have 401,000 people "net" who were employed but are now not in the labor force.  

Meanwhile, 2,669,000 people who were unemployed (actively looking for work)  in March 2012 stopped searching for work for some reason, perhaps including despair, but we don't know that for sure.  This group was offset by 2,753,000 people who were not in the labor force in March but started looking for work (and thus became officially unemployed) in April.  So we actually had 84,000 more people JOINING the labor force and looking for work than we had people leaving the job search for whatever reason.    

The bottom line of "flows" is that the increase in people "not in the labor force" came from people leaving employment, NOT people giving up job searches for whatever reason, including despair.  

More information about people "Not in the Labor Force" and the Labor Participation Rate HERE.

The numbers for this article were taken primarily from these two Bureau of Labor Statistics charts:  Persons not in the labor force by desire and availability for work and Employment of the civilian non-institutional population 16 -24 years of age.

Private & Government Jobs Gained & Lost Under Obama (April 2012)

MAY 2013 BLS Jobs Numbers and Unemployment Rate Were Released Friday, June 7th.  Check HERE for detail.

All jobs numbers & reports  (2013, 2012, and all 2011 Updates) indexed HERE!!

Private & Government Jobs Gained & Lost Under Obama (November update)



The following numbers are as of April 2012.  For latest numbers, please click one of the above links.

How many jobs (total, private, and government) have been lost or gained since Obama was inaugurated?  

• 4,317,000 jobs (in seasonally adjusted numbers) were LOST in TOTAL from the time Obama took office until the "trough" of the recession in early 2010.  That's a decrease of 3.2%. 
• 3,745,000 jobs (in seasonally adjusted numbers) were CREATED from the "trough" of the recession until now, April 2012.  That's an increase of 2.90%.
• In total, 572,000  jobs (in seasonally adjusted numbers) were LOST from the time Obama took office until now, April 2012.  That's a decrease of 0.43%. *
• We have experienced 19 months WITHOUT job losses since September 2010.  We have ADDED 3,104,000 jobs during those 19 months. 
• We now have 132,989,000 TOTAL non-farm jobs.  
  
  

*  These are all net figures, meaning that they represent the total number of jobs at the end of a reporting period.  All losses have been subtracted from all gains and vice verse.

*  Though, as of April 2012, we still have fewer jobs (in adjusted numbers) than when President Obama took office, jobs are being added at a faster clip under Obama than under George Bush at the same time in his presidency.  At this point in Bush's presidency (April 2004), there were still 1,415,000 fewer jobs than when he was inaugurated in January 2001 (compared to 572,000 fewer for Obama).  The number of jobs didn't eclipse the number when Bush was first inaugurated until February 2005, in Bush's second term.      

All jobs numbers & reports  (July 2012 & and all 2011 Updates) indexed HERE!!

How many PRIVATE sector jobs have been lost or gained since Obama was inaugurated?

• 4,213,000 private-sector jobs (in seasonally adjusted numbers) were LOST from the time Obama took office until the "trough" of the recession in early 2010.  That's a decrease of 3.8%.
• 4,248,000 private-sector jobs (in seasonally adjusted numbers) were GAINED OR CREATED from the "trough" of the recession until now, April 2012.  That's an increase of 3.98%.
• In total, 35,000 private sector jobs (in seasonally adjusted numbers) have been GAINED from the time Obama took office until now, April 2012.  That's a net increase of 0.03%. *
• We have experienced 26 months of positive private-sector job GROWTH from February 2010 until April 2012.  We have added 4,248,000 private-sector jobs during those 26 months.    
• We now have 111,020,000 PRIVATE sector non-farm jobs.

*Though, as of April 2012, we still have fewer private-sector jobs (in adjusted numbers) than when President Obama took office, jobs are being added at a faster clip under Obama than under George Bush at the same time in his presidency.  At this point in Bush's presidency (April 2004), there were still 2,194,000 fewer private sector jobs than when he was inaugurated in January 2001 (compared to 35,000 MORE for Obama).  The number of private-sector jobs didn't eclipse the number when Bush was first inaugurated until June 2005, in Bush's second term.    

How many GOVERNMENT jobs have been lost or gained since Obama was inaugurated?

• 102,000 government jobs (in seasonally adjusted numbers) were LOST from the time Obama took office until the "trough" of the recession in early 2010.  That's a decrease of  .47%  (about half of a percent). 
• Another 505,000 government jobs (in seasonally adjusted numbers) were LOST from the "trough" of the recession until now, April 2012.  That's a decrease of 2.25%.
• In total, 607,000 government jobs (in seasonally adjusted numbers) were LOST from the time Obama took office until now, April 2012.  That's a decrease of 2.69%. 
• We have experienced decreases in the number of government jobs in 20 out of the last 23 months, starting in June 2010, when the layoff of 2010 Census workers began.  
• We now have 21,969,000 GOVERNMENT non-farm jobs, not including people in the military.  (Civilians employed by the U.S. and working for the military are counted.)

(Note:  Current numbers taken from the April Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation Report.  Historical numbers taken from various archived Employment Situation reports as indexed HERE. Specifics will be provided upon request; please email me or leave a comment.)

Bad Jobs Report! Yes? No? Maybe so?

We only added 115,000 jobs last month!  This is horrible!  And it's all Obama's fault!

And if you believe that this is all Obama's fault, there's this bridge you might be interested in buying...  

Did anybody notice that Romney seemed actually happy this morning while gloating about how "bad" the April jobs report?  He also seemed to decide that we need to add 400,000 to 500,000 jobs a month to have healthy job growth.  This from the man who was the governor when Massachusetts was 47th in the union in job creation?  Who made his millions (and possibly billions) by breaking up companies and getting rid of jobs?  I truly hope the American people will not fall for this b.s.

We know now that the Republicans have been plotting since inauguration night to make sure that Obama does not have a second term, and one of the ways they have been doing this is to stand in the way of anything that might make the jobs numbers improve faster than they are.  And I'm also sure they will do whatever they can to make good news seem tepid and to make tepid jobs news seem bad.  

So, with that in perspective, let's look at this jobs report and jobs news this week:

1.  First of all, we only supposedly added 115,000 jobs this week, and only 130,000 private sector jobs.  Last month we only supposedly added 120,000 jobs total, 121 private sector jobs.  But now, as more accurate estimates become available, the statisticians keep adding:  February 2012 started at 132,697,000 jobs, was increased to 132,701,000 jobs, and now is at 132,720,000 jobs.  March started at 132,821,000 jobs and the current estimate is 132,874,000 jobs.  We don't know what might happen to these numbers, including the April jobs number, next month.  These jobs numbers were really never designed to drive the stock market one way or the other, as they really are preliminary estimates.   

2.  In real unadjusted numbers, we now have 1,559,000 more people working than we had when Obama was inaugurated, and we have 1,479,000 more jobs than we did when Obama was inaugurated.  This means that, in "real" numbers, about 1,500,000 of your fellow Americans, friends, family members, neighbors, have jobs now vs. January 2009.   

3.  In seasonally adjusted jobs, which is the number that all jobs reports use, there are now 35,000 more private sector jobs than there were when Obama took office.  

4.  Obama has been pushing for a new jobs program that would help stem the loss of state and local government jobs, particularly the loss of jobs in teaching jobs, for almost a year now.  The Republicans have given him no help or support on this at all.  In the meantime, we have lost 100,000 local level teaching jobs (elementary, high school, and community college) in the past year and 270,000 local level teaching jobs since late 2009.  We've lost another 50,000 local government jobs in the past year, and that would include firefighters, policemen, and other local governmental workers.

5.  The spin is:  People are so despondent that they are dropping out of the work force!  Except that the Bureau of Labor Statistics actually asks people who are not in the labor force (not working and not actively looking for work) if they "want a job", and even this month, when we have 552,000 more people "not in the labor force", we have only a fairly small increase, 67,000 people, who "want a job".  We have to assume that most people who are no longer in the labor force DO NOT WANT A JOB.  We unfortunately don't know why people who were actively looking for work or working last month (in other words, people in the civilian labor force) are no longer in the civilian labor force this month, but the number of people who "want a job" has been generally going down over the past year.  More HERE (and a graph) about those people who are "not in the labor force".

6.  Because we have an aging population with a large number of people who do not want jobs, we may need to make different assumptions as to the number of jobs we need to get to relatively full employment.   

7.  Romney is now saying that an unemployment rate of 4.0% is a goal for a full economy, even though we haven't had an unemployment rate of 4.0% or lower since the year 2000, when Clinton was in office.  And before that, in the late 60's, until Nixon had been in office a year.  Before that, in the late 40's and early 50's when women were generally not in the work force.  

8.  The quality of jobs is important.  The country right now with the lowest unemployment rate is Vietnam.  Do we really want to become a Vietnam just to get our unemployment rate down?  My sense-- pure speculation-- is that many older people who cannot find jobs are leaving the labor force if they can possibly swing it...  rather than take lousy jobs.. if they could even get a lousy job.  

More thoughts and reports as analysis continues over the next days and weeks...

April Jobs Links and Info:

• How Many Jobs Has Obama Created or Lost? (April 2012) 
• What Was the Unemployment Rate When Obama Took Office? (April update)
• Job Growth & Loss Year by Year Since 1999
• Private & Govt Jobs Month by Month 2011 & 2012 (April Updates)
• Who are These People Who are "Not in the Labor Force"?
• • • April Payroll Estimates: Myth or Meaningful?
• • • How Many Jobs Lost Before Obama Took Office?

What Was the Unemployment Rate When Obama Took Office? (April 2012 update)

What Was the Unemployment Rate When Obama Took Office Compared to Now? (November 2015 update)

The following numbers are outdated.  For current numbers, please click the above link.

What was the unemployment rate when Bush left office and Obama was inaugurated? 7.8%

How high did it go?  10.0% 

What is today's (April 2012's) unemployment rate?   8.1%

How many people were looking for work when Obama was inaugurated, how many were working?  And how many people are looking for work and how many are employed now?
Keep reading!

Private job growth higher under Obama than Bush?

Click HERE for all published jobs reports and updates for 2011 - 2014 to date.  

How Many Jobs Has Obama Created or Lost? (April 2012 update)

This report has been updated for
June 2015 HERE:  How Many Jobs Have Been Created or Lost Under Obama?

All other jobs reports (2011 through 2015) indexed HERE

How Many Jobs (Net) Created in 2014 to Date? HERE

How Many Jobs Were Lost During the Bush Administration?  HERE  

How Many Jobs Were Lost in Obama's First 3 Months in Office?

The following numbers are as of APRIL 2012.  For the latest numbers, please click one of the links above!

How has Obama done on jobs?  

3,745,000 gained since "trough" of recession.

How Has Obama done on private-sector jobs?

4,248,000 gained since the "trough" of the recession.

26 months of private-sector job growth.
19 months of over all job growth.

Have any jobs been LOST (net) over the past 26 months?
No net jobs have been LOST since September 2010 (19 months) when the last of the Census 2010 workers were let go.

Have any private jobs been LOST (net) over the past 26 months?  NO.  

(Explanations below.  Keep reading.)

How many jobs have been lost or gained during the Obama administration?  Have more new jobs been created or have more jobs been lost under Obama to date?  (The following numbers reflect the labor situation as of March 2012.  For current numbers, please click one of the links above!)    

Summary:  We are still in negative territory in terms of jobs numbers since Obama took office.  We still have 572,000 FEWER jobs (total) now than when Obama was inaugurated, but we now have 35,000 MORE private-sector jobs than when Obama was inaugurated.  (You can find updates to these numbers HERE!.) 

However, we are now adding jobs at a fair clip, with an average of 171,000 MORE jobs  total added per month since December 2010, and an average of  188,000 MORE jobs added per month in the private sector since December 2010.

Here's a summary of data from the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics).  All numbers lost to the "trough" of the recession reflect ALL non-farm jobs lost between the time Obama took office and the lowest point of the recession in late 2009/early 2010 :

(Note:  All of the jobs numbers are NET numbers.  In other words, we know that jobs are lost and added every month, in good years and in bad.  The numbers reported here, based on Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers, are "net" numbers; that is, the number of jobs gained after the number of jobs lost is subtracted, or the number of jobs lost after the number of jobs gained is added.)  

Seasonally adjusted:

• All jobs lost from the time Obama took office to "trough" (bottom of recession): .....4,317,000
• All jobs gained since "trough": ....3,745,000

Net LOSS in seasonally-adjusted jobs since Obama took office: .... 572,000                     

"Raw:" numbers not seasonally adjusted:

• Jobs lost from the time Obama took office to trough: .....4,246,000                                                    
• Jobs gained since "trough": .......5,658,000

Net GAINED in raw unadjusted jobs since Obama took office: ..... 1,412,000 

*Though, as of April 2012, we still have fewer jobs (in adjusted numbers) than when President Obama took office, jobs are being added at a faster clip under Obama than under George Bush at the same time in his presidency.  At this point in Bush's presidency (April 2004), there were still 1,415,000 fewer jobs than when he was inaugurated in January 2001 (compared to 572,000 fewer for Obama).  The number of jobs didn't eclipse the number when Bush was first inaugurated until February 2005, in Bush's second term.  

How many private sector jobs have been gained or lost since Obama took office?

Seasonally adjusted:

• Private-sector jobs lost to "trough" (bottom of recession): .....4,212,000
• Private-sector jobs gained since "trough": .....4,248,000

         

*(This is the number often used by Obama and the Democrats as the number of private jobs created since the "trough" of the recession .  It is a correct number, but it is a seasonally-adjusted number.  In "real" unadjusted numbers, 5,630,000 private sector jobs have been created since the "trough" of the recession.)

  

Net GAIN in seasonally-adjusted private-sector jobs since Obama took office: ....35,000                      

"Raw:" numbers not seasonally adjusted: 

• Private-sector jobs lost to "trough": .....4,151,000 
• Private-sector jobs gained since "trough": .....5,630,000                          

Net GAIN in "raw" unadjusted private-sector jobs since Obama took office: .....1,479,000  

*Though, as of April 2012, we still have fewer private-sector jobs (in adjusted numbers) than when President Obama took office, jobs are being added at a faster clip under Obama than under George Bush at the same time in his presidency.  At this point in Bush's presidency (April 2004), there were still 2,194,000 fewer private sector jobs than when he was inaugurated in January 2001 (compared to 35,000 MORE for Obama).  The number of private-sector jobs didn't eclipse the number when Bush was first inaugurated until June 2005, in Bush's second term.     

Latest jobs reports indexed HERE!

• How Many Jobs Were Lost in Obama's First 3 Months in Office?
• Private & Government Jobs Created/Lost Month by Month 2011 & 2012
• How Many Fewer or More Jobs Since December 2010?  
• The Unemployment Rate: What does it measure? Where did it come from?

Summary of April jobs activity: 

Jobs increased 115,000 in total in April 2012 (vs. a revised increase of 154,000 in March). Private sector jobs continued to increase while government sector jobs continued to decrease. Private sector jobs increased by 130,000 (vs. a revised increase of 166,000 in March), while government jobs decreased by 15,000 (vs. a revised decrease of 12,000 in March).  

Is it true that over 4 million private sector jobs have been created in the Obama administration as the Democrats claim?

(Summary of gross and net jobs activity since Obama was inaugurated is below the jump---  Keep reading!)

Yes, if one is looking at numbers created from the bottom ("trough") of the recession.  In fact, that number is now low.  In seasonally adjusted numbers as of April 2012, 4,248,000 private-sector jobs have been created since the bottom of the recession.   (Remember that job loss continued for about a year after Obama was inaugurated.)

Have any private jobs been lost over the past 26 months?

Remember that these are NET job gains.  In other words, jobs are lost and jobs are gained all of the time, in good economies and in bad.  In growing economies, more jobs are gained over a period of months than are lost.  In declining economies, more jobs are lost over a period of months than are gained.  Over the past 26 months, we have a net gain (more jobs gained than lost) of 4,248,000 private sector jobs, and a net gain (more jobs gained than lost) of 3,745,000 total jobs.  In NET terms, NO jobs have been lost over the past 26 months; we have only added jobs.

How many workers have been laid off or hired (net) during the Obama administration?  

Seasonally adjusted:  

• Fewer people working (net) to "trough" : .....4,219,000 
• More people working (net) since "trough": ....3,869,000      

Net LOSS in seasonally-adjusted number of people working since Obama took office: .....322,000                    

"Raw:" numbers not seasonally adjusted:

• Fewer workers to "trough": .......3,627,000
• More workers since "trough": .....5,186,000

Net GAIN in "raw" unadjusted number of people working since Obama took office:    .....1,559,000        

Can you summarize the above?

• Obama was inaugurated in January 2009 when the economy was in free fall and we were losing about 700,000 jobs a month.  Over 4,400,000 jobs were lost before Obama took office.  
• The employment situation did not bottom out until late 2009 or early 2010.  An additional 4,300,000 jobs were lost between the time that Obama took office and the bottom ("trough") of the recession.  
• That's a total job loss of at least 8,700,000 jobs over approximately 2 years.
• Since the economy started to add jobs under Obama, 3,745,000 jobs have been added using seasonally-adjusted numbers (See below). 
• Since the economy started to add jobs under Obama, 5,630,000 jobs have been added using "real" unadjusted numbers.  
• We still need more jobs to overcome the loss of jobs that started in 2008 and to make up for the increase in population since 2008.  Please remember that over 49,000,000 people were laid off between Spring of 2008 and the end of 2009, even though people continued to be hired during that time. 
• However, we now have MORE private-sector jobs in seasonally adjusted numbers than we did when Obama took office, and we now haveMORE people reporting themselves as working in unadjusted numbers than we did when Obama took office, and we are approaching that point in all numbers of jobs and workers. 

How did you come up with these numbers?  Why isn't there one number instead of all of these?    

Counting jobs or workers is very tricky. In seasonal numbers, we lost more jobs and workers in the first year of Obama's administration (4.3 million jobs lost), when the economy was struggling to pull out of recession, than we gained during the second and third years of Obama's administration when we experienced job growth.   In this fourth year of Obama's administration, however, we are now ahead of the numbers of jobs and workers when Obama took office in private jobs numbers and in most seasonally unadjusted numbers of workers and jobs. 

Job growth was brisk in the first months of 2011, slowed down towards the middle of the year, then picked up during the last months of the year.  Job growth has slowed a bit this spring, but has continued nonetheless.  Private sector job growth continued throughout 2011 into 2012.  We now have 26 months straight of private sector job growth.  

There's usually no one number that explains everything, and most monthly numbers need to be seen as "trends", not absolutes.  People use the unemployment rate, but even that can vary for so many reasons that don't really reflect the true state of the labor market.

A few explanations and more detail:

What is a "trough"?  When did we hit the low point of jobs and workers?  When did we hit the high point of unemployment? 

I use the term "trough" to designate the lowest point of jobs or workers in this recession.  The various counts reach their "troughs" in various months, so it may be a bit confusing.  The unemployment rate reached its high point in October 2009.  The seasonally adjusted number of workers reached its low point in December 2009, but so many workers had dropped out of the work force that the unemployment rate had actually come down.  In raw, unadjusted numbers of workers and jobs, we reached our nadir in January 2010.  The seasonally-adjusted number of jobs reached its low point a month later, in February 2010. 

How Many Jobs were Lost from the time Obama took office until the "trough" of jobs lost?

• In seasonally adjusted numbers, employers reported 133,561,000 jobs in January 2009.  At the trough of the recession in February 2010, there were 129,244,000 jobs.  That's a loss of 4,317,000 jobs from the time Obama took office until the "trough" of the recession. 

• In "raw" numbers (not adjusted for seasonal variances), employers reported 131,555,000 jobs in January 2009.  At the trough of the recession in January 2010, there were 127,309,000 jobs.  That's a loss of  4,246,000 jobs from the time Obama took office until the "trough" of the recession. 

How Many Fewer Were Employed from the time Obama took office until the "trough" of employment?

• In seasonally adjusted numbers, 142,187,000 people reported themselves as employed in January 2009.  At the trough of the recession in December 2009, 137,968,000 people reported themselves as employed.  That's a loss of 4,219,000 employed people from the time Obama took office until the "trough" of the recession.

• In "raw" numbers (not adjusted for seasonal variances), 140,436,000 people reported themselves as employed in January 2009.  At the trough of the recession in January 2010, 136,809,000 people reported themselves as employed.  That's a loss of 3,627,000 employed people from the time Obama took office until the "trough" of the recession. 

What was the unemployment rate when Obama took office?  How high did it go? 

• For the record, when Obama took office in January 2009, the "official" unemployment rate in seasonally adjusted numbers was 7.8%, with 12,049,000 people reported themselves as unemployed and actively looking.  In "raw" numbers not adjusted for seasonal variance, the unemployment rate was already 8.5% with 13,009,000 people reporting themselves as unemployed and actively looking for work.

• At the trough of the recession in late 2009/early 2010, the "official" unemployment rate in seasonally adjusted numbers was 10.0% in October 2009 with 15,421,000 people (out of a labor force of about 153,822,000) reporting themselves as unemployed.  In "raw" numbers not adjusted for seasonal variance, the unemployment rate reached a peak of 10.6% in January 2010 with 16,147,000 (out of a labor force of about 153,000,000) reporting themselves as unemployed and actively looking for work.

• Now, in April 2012, the "official" unemployment rate in seasonally adjusted numbers is 8.1%, which is less than the March 2012  unemployment rate with 12,500,000 (out of a labor force of 154,365,000) reporting themselves as unemployed.  In unadjusted "raw" numbers, the unemployment rate is now 7.7%, a decrease of .7% (seven-tenths of a percent) compared to the unadjusted unemployment rate in March 2012.  (Remember, the unadjusted unemployment rate was 8.5% when Obama was inaugurated.)  

How many jobs have been created since the "trough" of the recession in late 2009/early 2010 to now, April 2012?

• In seasonally adjusted numbers, 3,945,000 jobs have been created since the "trough" of the recession in February 2010.

• In raw unadjusted numbers, 5,658,000 jobs have been created since the "trough" of the recession in January 2010.

How many more people reported they were working since the "trough" of the recession in late 2009/early 2010 to now, April 2012?  

• In seasonally adjusted numbers, 3,897,000 more people are working since the trough of the recession in December 2009.

• In "raw" unadjusted numbers, 5,186,000 more people are working since the trough of the recession in January 2010.
  

How Many New Jobs That President Obama Claims to Create Have Been Lost Now?

Many people find my blog as they attempt to figure out how many jobs have been LOST under President Obama.  The above is one such question that someone is trying to answer.

For the benefit of this person and others with similar questions about job loss under Obama, let me make this clear:  Since February 2010, we have had NO net losses in private-sector jobs.  Since September 2010, after all Census 2010 workers were released, we have had NO net losses in total jobs.

ALL JOBS LOSSES took place in the FIRST YEAR of Obama's presidency.  Look at the chart of private sector job growth HERE.  You should then get the picture. 

(Note:  All of my employment number reports are based on monthly reports and data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  Monthly numbers reports are based on the monthly Employment Situation Report.  The Employment Situation report includes month over month and year over year numbers of jobs and workers.  My analysis is taken from the monthly BLS data copied to an Excel spreadsheet every month.  I calculate detailed percentage increases/decreases, 3 month numbers, 2011 to date numbers, and I compare jobs numbers to those at the time of Obama's inauguration and at the "trough" of the recession.  As the BLS revises its numbers as new information is available, I use the latest available numbers in my monthly articles, which means that those numbers may differ slightly from numbers published in previous months.)