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Tuesday, April 2, 2013

How Many New Jobs Were Added (Created) or Lost in the U.S. in 2013? (Final 2013 update)

How Many New Jobs Were Added (Created) or Lost in 2013?  (Final December 2013 update)

How many more or fewer people working in 2013?  How many people have left or joined the civilian labor (work) force in 2013?  

  • Continue reading for answers to these questions.

How many MORE jobs (net) were created in all of 2013 to date, from December 2012 through December 2013?

  • 2,322,000 MORE total jobs.  (Revised from 2,186,000

How many MORE private-sector jobs have been created in 2013?  

  •  2,368,000 MORE private sector jobs.  (Revised from 2,211,000)  

How many more people working in all of 2013 to date, from December 2012 through December 2013?  

  • 1,374,000 MORE people working.   

Have jobs been lost (seasonally adjusted numbers) in 2013?  

  • NO.  I'll repeat that:  NO jobs have been lost (NET) in 2013. 

How many jobs (in seasonally adjusted numbers)have been lost in 2013?  

  • NO jobs (NET) have been lost in 2013.  

How Many Jobs Were Lost or Gained in 2013?

  • In seasonally adjusted numbers, 2,322,000 jobs were CREATED in 2013 to date.  That's 193,500 jobs ADDED per month in 2013.
  • In "raw" unadjusted numbers, 2,328,000 jobs have been GAINED in 2013.  That's 184,000 jobs GAINED per month so far in 2013.
  • In terms of seasonally adjusted and unadjusted jobs, both total and private sector, we had JOB GAINS in 2013. 

How many private-sector jobs were created in all of 2013, from December 2012 through December 2013?  Were private-sector jobs created or  lost in 2013?
  • In seasonally adjusted numbers, 2,368,000 private-sector jobs were CREATED or ADDED in 2013.  That's 197,300 NEW private-sector jobs per month in 2013 as of December 2013.
  • In "raw" unadjusted numbers, 2,365,000 private-sector jobs were GAINED in 2013.  That's 197,100 private sector jobs GAINED per month in unadjusted numbers in 2013.
  • In both seasonally adjusted numbers and in unadjusted numbers, we had JOB GAINS  in 2013.  As one can see from these numbers, year over year, the adjusted and unadjusted numbers are very, very close, even though they may differ appreciably during various times during the year. 

How many government jobs were created in all of 2013, from December 2012 through December 2013?  Have government jobs been created or lost in  2013?   
  • In seasonally adjusted numbers, 46,000 government jobs were LOST in 2013.  That's  3,800 government jobs LOST per month in 2013.
  • In "raw" unadjusted numbers, 37,000 government jobs were LOST in 2013.  That's 3,100 government jobs LOST per month in unadjusted numbers in 2013.  
  • Most of government jobs lost or gained in unadjusted numbers is due to school vacation schedules.  The number of teachers generally goes down in January and starts to rise in February & March.  The number of teachers starts to decrease in May and decreases quite a bit in June and July.  That number starts to go up again in the fall as teachers return to work. 

How many more people were working in all of 2013, from December 2012 to now, December 2013? 
  • In seasonally adjusted numbers, 1,374,000 MORE people were working at the end of 2013 vs. December of 2012.  That's 114,500 MORE workers each month of 2013.
  • In "raw" unadjusted numbers, 1,363,000 MORE people were working at the end of 2013 vs. December 2012.  That's 113,600 MORE workers each month of 2013.  

 Have jobs or workers been lost in 2013? 
  • In 2013, we had ONLY NET GAINS in numbers of total jobs, private sector jobs, and number of people working.  
  • We had losses in the number of government jobs, a trend which started in 2009 and has continued for five years. 
  • To reiterate, in terms of private jobs numbers and total jobs numbers, both seasonally adjusted and non-adjusted, we had ONLY JOB GAINS in 2013.
How many people left or joined the civilian labor force in 2013?
  • 548,000 people left the civilian labor force (net) in 2013.             
Jobs are gained and lost every month; people are laid off, people quit, and people are hired every month, in good times and bad.

Please understand that people are laid off and people quit every month. Let's look at 2013. In all of 2013, 53,317,000 people were HIRED. 19,505,000 people were laid off or discharged in those six months, another 27,470,000 people quit their jobs. 4,405,000 people left their jobs for other reasons such as retirement. 
Let's add and subtract: 

  • 53,317,000 people were hired; 
  • 51,380,000 people were "separated", most of those people left voluntarily; that is, they quit. 
  • That comes out to about 1,937,000 MORE hires than separations, which is about 400,000 fewer "net" jobs than the latest revisions for 2013.  (Over time, with more accurate revisions, these two numbers become very close.) 

What We Mean By "NET" Jobs Numbers:

When the number of people hired exceeds the number of "separations" (people who quit or are laid off), the monthly jobs numbers go up.  When the number of people laid off PLUS the number of people who quit exceed the number of people hired, the monthly jobs numbers go down.  All monthly jobs numbers that you hear in the news from the monthly jobs report are "net" jobs numbers.  (Weekly initial unemployment claims are actually "gross" numbers, as no account is given as to how many people were hired during that week.)

How many jobs have been created since the "trough" of the recession in late 2009/early 2010 through December 2013?  How many more people working since that time?

    How many jobs were created in the last month, December 2013?
    What gets counted as "jobs" and who gets counted as "working"?

    You will see reports here for both the number of "jobs" and the number of people "working".

    There are two parts of the BLS numbers:

    1) The "jobs numbers" or B tables refer to the Establishment Report; that is, employing "establishments". This is basically what is included and excluded in the Establishment report:

    "Employment data refer to persons on establishment payrolls who received pay for any part of the pay period that includes the 12th day of the month. Data exclude proprietors, the unincorporated self-employed, unpaid volunteer or family workers, farm workers, and domestic workers. Salaried officers of corporations are included. Government employment covers only civilian employees; military personnel are excluded. Employees of the Central Intelligence Agency, the National Security Agency, the National Imagery and Mapping Agency, and the Defense Intelligence Agency also are excluded." (Found HERE.)
    Therefore, independent contractors who are paid as 1099 employees would NOT be included in those numbers, neither would people starting their own small businesses, whether incorporated self-employed or non-incorporated self-employed. Farmers would also NOT be considered in the monthly "jobs" reports.

    However, the Current Population Survey (or "A tables") counts people from their own perspective; in other words, it doesn't talk to employers, it talks to people. It asks people if they are working for money in any given month. This is the study from which we get the unemployment rate and the number of people "working". Independent contractors are included in that count. 

    The count of people who are employed is always higher by approximately 9,000,000 people as it includes farmers and people who are self-employed along with a few other groups of workers.  There were about 9,317,000 unincorporated self-employed workers in December 2013, so this is where independent contractors would be reported.  There were also about 5,433,000 incorporated self-employed workers in December 2013.
    (Note:  All of my employment number reports are based on monthly reports and data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  Monthly numbers reports are based on the monthly Employment Situation Report.  The Employment Situation report includes month over month and year over year jobs numbers.  My analysis is taken from the monthly BLS data copied to an Excel spreadsheet every month.  I calculate detailed percentage increases/decreases, 3 month numbers, year-to-date numbers, and I compare jobs numbers to those at the time of Obama's inauguration and at the "trough" of the recession.)
     the past year?

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